Why Hasn’t Cleveland Given Kipnis a Call?
Before the season, most prognosticators saw Cleveland finishing a distant fourth or perhaps even fifth in the 2011 American League Central. However, Cleveland jumped out to a big early lead, and although things have slowed down for the Tribe, at the All-Star break they are only half a game behind division-leading Detroit. Players such as Asdrubal Cabrera, Carlos Santana, Justin Masterson, Josh Tomlin, and Carlos Carrasco have led the charge. Like all teams (especially those in the AL Central), the Indians have holes, especially with Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore taking their traditional stints to the disabled list. Such holes aren’t always easy to fill. However, during yesterday’s Cleveland-Toronto tilt, as the Blue Jays’ announce team raved about Orlando Cabrera‘s status as a veteran leader and good luck charm, it struck me again that the Indians do have a obvious solution in at least one spot. According to second base prospect Jason Kipnis (who hit a home run in last night’s Futures Game), the team has his number. Why won’t they give him a call?
I’ll be the first to admit that I have no way of knowing what sort of miraculous effects Orlando Cabrera’s intangibles have on a team — maybe he really is the cause of Cleveland’s run at the division title this season. Leaving that possibility aside, he’s been objectively horrible this season, as a quick glance at this shows. Yet he has started 70 games at second base. I don’t think I need to pursue the “Cabrera is terrible” angle much further. He might have made sense as a stopgap for Cleveland before the season, but if they are serious about making a run at the division, it’s time to move on.
The real issue here is Kipnis. Along with recent call-up Lonnie Chisenhall, Kipnis is widely regarded as one of Cleveland’s top prospects. Indeed, I’ve even seen him listed ahead of Chisenhall in one or two places. It is interesting to compare Kipnis’s numbers in the minors to fellow-converted second baseman Dustin Ackley. While Ackley (23) is rightly considered the superior prospect, Kipnis (24) is only a year older, his numbers on similar levels are every bit as good as Ackley’s, and while Kipnis’s fielding at second is described as a work in progress, I don’t think that’s any different than Ackley’s situation. The Mariners probably are out of it for good this season, but they saw Ackley as ready, and called him up.
Of course, just because Seattle called their hot second base prospect up doesn’t mean that Cleveland should do the same. The more interesting comparison is with Cleveland’s own decision to call up Chisenhall (21) to play third base. Despite the exceptions I mentioned above, most prospect-watchers do consider Chisenhall to be the superior prospect to Kipnis, as his young age allows for greater upside. His glove is also better at his position. However, prior to the season few expected Chisenhall to be up before September. Moreover, Chisenhall wasn’t exactly tearing it up at AAA this season, and had some injury issues as well. However, one might be able to understand the Indians’ decision to call Chisenhall up given that they are in the divisional race and that Jack Hannahan is only a stopgap himself. However, just about any justification of that sort used for calling up Chisenhall applies even moreso to Kipnis. Hannahan is only a stopgap, but I would argue that he’s better than Cabrera (he at least isn’t worse). Whatever their respective upsides, Kipnis’ bat is clearly better than Chisenhall’s a the moment. If the team wants to preserve service time, then why would they call up Chisenhall?
There are other issues but they are easily set aside: the team does have more “depth” at second, but if they seriously wanted to give Luis Valbuena another chance, they wouldn’t have given Cabrera the job in the first place. Cord Phelps is a more interesting issue, but it isn’t clear that the team views him as a serious option (rightly or wrongly). If they are trying to win this season, they need to go with the best player at the position, and that this point, it’s Kipnis. Hopefully for Cleveland fans, he comes up after the break is over. I’m sure the team has their reasons for the decisions they’ve made, but in light of the aggressive promotion of Chisenhall, I honestly can’t see why Kipnis isn’t up already.
Free Jason Kipnis!!!
Being a lifetime Indians fan (i’m only 27), I have to support their decision to keep playing Orlando Cabrera. He keeps the team loose and seems to add a spark. All of the younger players, especially Asdrubal Cabrera look up to him. His offense has been horrible the last couple of months, but his defense has not been. And there was a big difference with Phelps playing second compared to Cabrera. Not only were more errors made, but double plays were missed (the Yankees scored 5 runs last week in an inning that should have been over if Phelps made a good throw). Also, with the game on the line, Orlando puts up a professional at bat everytime. I really feel comfortable with him at the plate in end of game situations and I believe the team does too.
With the Indians taking a hit defensively with Chisenhall playing over Hanahan, I’m not sure they can afford another hit at 2nd. The Indians have been winning with pitching, defense, and timely hitting.
The Indians front office is one of the best in baseball, so I gotta believe they know what they’re doing.
Now if the Tribe happen to fall flat on their face after the break, then it makes sense to call up Kipnis, but not when they are in the race.
So we should just wait until we’re out of the race to put our best team on the field?
Orlando’s defensive metrics are absolutely awful, and even if I grant that 1/2 of a season is a tiny sample size, he’s been no better than average defensively over the last few years.
Professional at-bats? He sees 3.13 pitches per plate appearance, which is last in the league. I have no particular problem with not seeing tons of pitches, but it disqualifies that argument.
The tribe is already dealing with a shortage of talent compared to the other contenders. We need our best players on the field.
With the way he’s hitting, he better be providing one hell of a spark.
Isn’t Manny Acta one of the more SABR-embracing managers in the game? So he should be aware of how poorly Orlando Cabrera really has performed. Could it be that Orlando Cabrera does have magical powers?
well when orlando cabrera is on your team you automatically make the playoffs, just like eric hinske.
from what i remember hearing, kipnis isn’t on the 40 man and is a year away from needing to be on the 40 man (i guess rule 5), so he’s not on it. but as you said lonnie probably had a simliar situation but he was brought up and was doing worse. i guess it really stems from orlando’s leadership qualities and that he can’t play third base (never played it and is uncomforatble there)or shortstop (too old plus asdrubal is there).
is there any chance they called up valbuena in the hopes he would hit and be a valuable young throw-in for a possible deadline deal for a veteran? even a minor league trade to address an area with less depth than 2b?
i wish they would have kept phelps up and given him more regular at bats, but since they seem to have moved on, bring on Kipnis!
I can see them trying to shop Valbuena since they have Phelps and Kipnis for next year.
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Phelps proved that he is at least a year away from being a major league 2B. If it happens at all. As another commenter pointed out, he made big errors as well as some miscues that were not scored errors that cost Cleveland games. I also think it’s not crazy to suggest that IF defense is a big reason behind Masterson’s breakout this year. They’re sacrificing offense for defense and veteran leadership, and so far it looks like they can afford to do that.
cord phelps hasn’t proven anything, he was never given a chance to succeed
To Orlando Cabrera’s credit, he is the one who told Asbrubal Cabrera to open up his swing for more power this year, and it has worked so far. So in some ways he is responsible for much of Clev’s success. I don’t know if that counteracts his anemic actual performance to date.
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Free Cord Phelps, imo
Cord Phelps has difficulty throwing the baseball to first base. Other than that he’s a real phenom.
Because he’s gay.
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Thanks for this piece. I’ve been waiting on Kipnis and wondering if I’m the crazy one…
…especially when I also can’t see the reasoning for keeping Jennings down this long… the latest I could rationally have called him up would have been June of this season (Crawford, Fuld experiment, okay, it’s June, get him up here). And now his injury is going to hold him back for even longer. Might you write a similar piece on Jennings and the Rays?
I can’t imagine any position player that would want to be drafted by the Rays. They may pat themselves on the back for locking up Longoria and extending Jennings’ service time but it doesn’t bode well for the future of the franchise.
I would love to see this same type of article for Desmond Jennings
Kipnis is a converted outfielder; he may need more seasoning with the glove at AAA. This is only his 2nd year as a 2B. The indians just had Phelps in Cleveland, and his defense was shaky, so sending him back down makes sense for now. Valbuena’s MLEs are .281/.336/.445 and Kipnis’s are .265/.333/.437. So he MIGHT be a better choice at this point. The plan is to platoon Valbuena (v. LHP) and O-Cab (v. RHP) at 2nd for the time being. Valbuena was also called up to play some 3rd if needed (minor Chisenhall injury).
As far as O-Cab is concerned, he does provide the intangibles, but it’s clear that the indians (correctly) no longer see him as an everyday player.
Going back to Kipnis, it’s only a matter of time before he makes his way to Cleveland. If Valbuena performs as poorly as he did last year, we may see Kipnis very soon.