Will Brandon Wood Figure Things Out?
The Angels designated Brandon Wood for assignment earlier this week. He will latch on elsewhere given his former status as a top-tier prospect, but whether the 26-year old infielder can translate minor league raking into big league success remains to be seen.
Many expected the world from Wood given his gaudy minor league numbers and his ability to ably handle the shortstop position. In five Triple-A seasons — and 1,437 plate appearances — Wood has hit .283/.350/.536. Even at a fraction of that slash line he would theoretically become one of the top offensive shortstops in the majors. However, his minor league numbers can be viewed two different ways.
On one hand, a slash line like that at the highest level of minor league play merits a legitimate shot in the majors. Not a week here or a month there, spread over several seasons, but a full and uninterrupted season. On the other hand, his struggles in limited major league action — a .168/.197/.259 line in 494 plate appearances — should not have been surprising given the frequency at which he struck out.
Wood struck out in 327 of those 1,437 plate appearances, or 22.7 percent of the time. Replace some of the fungible prospects he faced with legitimate major league starters and it stood to reason that his whiff rate would increase. Fueling his putrid major league line was a 2.6 percent walk rate, substantially lower than the 8.9 percent posted in the minors, and a 30.9 percent strikeout rate that increased as expected.
Wood may be a victim of circumstance, as the Angels could not afford to potentially punt a position while contending for a playoff spot. Some prospects take time to develop in the majors and it is tough to improve without consistent playing time.
It seemed like he needed the playing time he would receive in Triple-A, where he wouldn’t fear losing his job, but at the major league level. In other words, his best bet was to be employed by a cellar-dweller who could afford to give him a long-lasting look. A few teams fit that bill — the Astros and Pirates immediately come to mind — and given their respective positions on the waiver wire they might be able to bring him aboard.
But what player will the new employer see? Do players with strikeout rates as high as Wood’s figure things out and make improvements at the major league level?
To find out, I queried my database for all non-pitchers since 1960 who tallied 300 or more plate appearances before their 27th birthday, who had a 30 percent or higher strikeout rate to that point. Just 22 players were returned. This crop of players averaged a 32.6 percent whiff rate and posted a collective .723 OPS.
However, only 12(!) of those players received PAs between the ages of 27 and 30 years old. Using 300 PAs as a minimum — before turning 27 years old — meant that players with absolutely horrid numbers would be included. These players would not be rostered moving forward, explaining the sample’s reduction. Looking strictly at the players that fit my criteria and went onto receive PAs between the ages of 27 and 30, here are the pertinent averages:
26 yrs and Under: 32.8 SO/PA, .710 OPS
27 yrs to 30 yrs: 28.3 SO/PA, .720 OPS
These players cut back on their strikeouts even though the dropoff doesn’t seem substantial. In turn they were able to improve their slash lines, but the improvement was not remarkable at all. This research suggests it is very rare for a player to whiff so much as a youngster and even receive playing time in his late-twenties, let alone transform into an average major league hitter. For every Russell Branyan there are several Dave Nicholson’s and Billy Ashley’s. Who are those guys? Exactly.
The question then becomes one of which group Wood belongs to. His very poor showing suggests he is more in line with the players who fall out of the sample by the time they turn 27, but he will certainly receive playing time past that point.
In this regard, Wood profiles similarly to another former Angels prospect: Dallas McPherson, who hit .245/.298/.458 in 399 major league plate appearances. McPherson, like Wood, hit out of his mind in Triple-A before experiencing major league struggles. He also fizzled out of the majors at 27 years old. The odds aren’t in Wood’s favor, and while it isn’t unprecedented for a youngster extremely prone to punchouts to reduce his rate and improve at the plate, teams should not be surprised if he turns into Ashley or Nicholson and not Branyan. For next to no cost, he is certainly worth a look, but expectations should be tempered.
Maybe he’s just not that good. Lots of guys, even highly regarded guys, never make the leap from the minors to the Majors. Just add him to the list.
He’ll get another shot thanks to his former hype but odds are he’ll simply never pan out.
Look at Mike Stanton for a possible success story: Strikeout rates of 32.7, 25, 33.1, and 27.6 in the minors, then last year struck out 34.3%, but still reached 22 HR and a .507 slugging for the Marlins. His K rate and slugging are similar in this young season, too.
Mike Stanton also had pretty good walk rates in the minors, too. In his 2010 AA campaign (when he was only 20), he had 44 in only 53 games. He had about 60 in between A+ and AA in 2009, too and about 60 in A in 2008. In Wood’s AA season (when he was 21), he had 54 walks in 118 games. Stanton’s always had a better eye than Wood and that’s Wood’s whole problem. His pitch recognition isn’t particularly good because it never really had to be since his bat speed is so insane – he could get away with a close your eyes and swing approach.
AAA Salt Lake doesn’t help because not only do balls carry further, but breaking pitches don’t break in the thin air. So you never really learn to deal with major league curveballs – not only do the AAA pitchers not have stuff as good, but it’s not even as good as it should be. Players that don’t already have a good idea are going to have a really hard time developing one in that environment.
Seems to me that about five or six years ago the Angels farm system was regarded to be stupid loaded with talent, like the Rangers and Rays of recent note. Wood, McPherson, Kotchman, Mathis, Aybar, Kendrick, Santana. The Angels were supposed to be an emerging juggernaut.
Such a collection of top prospects, most of whom fell far short of expectations (at least to date) and with some notable almost total busts. It would be interesting to see if there some common threads (K-rate perhaps) woven through there that seems to have been downplayed or ignored.
I think a common thread would be hitting-favourable stadiums. i.e. the players weren’t as good as they appeared.
The PCL (AAA) and the California Leagues (A+) are both full of very favorable offensive stadiums. Look at some of the offensive numbers in the High Desert sometime. Half the stadiums in the league are like Coors before the Humidor.
Except that the offensive characteristics of those parks were well-known even at the time those assessments were being made, and adjustments were being made accordingly, whether quantitatively or by intuition. Those adjustments seemed OK for other players on other teams. So if “park environment” is the explanation why does that strike Angels prospects so much heavier than the prospects for other teams with affiliates in those leagues?
That’s what poses to me the question that perhaps there is something more fundamental than just park factors that was being overlooked.
I’m surprised the PCl wasn’t listed in the original article … since it’s one of the biggest factors.
It could also be that teams don’t put their best pitching prospects in the PCl … to get hammered and learn to be gunshy.
Brandon Wood has long since been the face of the 4A player.
At this point, one has to wonder if he’s willing to put in the work it’s going to take to get it done. It’s obvious he’s just not going to be able to show up and out talent everyone … but if he hasn’t put it together by now, when will he? (Probably never)
It’s the same ol thing, come up and struggle, go down and mash, rinse and repeat.
At this point, when he comes up to the majors, he’s probably expecting to struggle. Nobody knows how these guys will handle adversity because so few of them really experience until they get to the majors. (Andrew Miller).
Wasn’t mentioned because the specific focus was on whether or not these high-K guys ever figure it out, not why Wood has struggled. Those are two different posts. The latter discussion is certainly one worthy of highlighting. Maybe we can come up with a slew of guys with crazy PCI #s who struggle mightily in the majors.
I thought you were on to something so I did a quick check:
Jeff Mathis:
SO% (13,20) (between 13-20% in minors)
SLG% fell HARD between 2005 and 2006 when he made a solid debut…
Dallas McPherson:
SO% (25,28)
After call up in majors (SO% 47) he started whiffing at Mark Reynolds rates… (40%+ in minors 2006!)
Casey Kotchman:
SO% is impressive (8,14). He hit above .350 in 2003 and 2004 with SLG% above .500.
Since call-up, he has been a solid contributor with a few seasons above league average but the average turned into .280 which he hit in his last year of AAA and doubles never turned to homeruns. It’s hard to be Wade Boggs.
Brandon Wood:
After hitting 43 Homeruns Brandon jumped from #83 to #3 on the top prospects list. He had a SO% of 18% that year! Immediately following that year his SO% jumps to 27% for next two years and the rest is mentioned above. It seems his coming out in 2005 at 20 years old screwed up development.
Howie Kendrick:
He was the man in the minors! Batting average of .360+ every year. More power than Kotchman. SO% of 13%. 2005 was a breakout year and 2006 was actually better. He looks like everything was perfect and yet it didn’t work out. I don’t know his history well but I think injuries did him in as last year was his first full year. I think Howie Kendrick has potential for a .320/.360/.525 year with 20 homers as he’s already off to a great start for power and he can rake.
So the movie career didn’t pan out, Eric?
Trade him to Seattle.
Dallas was different in the sense that his career was derailed with injuries. Wood has been healthy – just hasn’t been able to put anything together.
I have no idea if Wood will turn out right or not. My gut says that having 500 PA’s spread out of over 4 years (and many of those years involved multiple call ups and downs) would make it challenging for ANYONE to succeed. IMO the Angels mishandled Wood and Wood certainly didn’t help the cause when he performed so poorly when given the shot to play.
I have a lot of confidence that Wood can turn into at least a league average SS if given time to develop. He just needs that time and the Angels can’t afford to give it to him.
Same thing said of Alex Gordon, since 09 … but he was pretty good in 07 and 08. Now, he’s off to a great start in 2011 … which surprises me that FG isn;t all over that! (.435 BABIP)
Do the Angels really need to see 600 PA in one season of Brandon Wood to know that he can’t hit major league pitching? Shouldn’t we give the scouts and coaches some credit here for recognizing something? Is it possible that he just looks/plays intimidated, overwhelmed, lost, overmatched? The Angels are a contending team, I don;t think they can sacrifice a year at a position just to see if a guy “might” finally breakout.
900 OPS in AAA, 500 in MLB.
If Wood is on my favorite team, do I really want to see a year of it, as my team is trying to win the division? Why handicap yourself like that?
The Bucs have the time and roster space for him, so he should get a real chance to show something this spring.
Its hard to imagine a change of scenery having that big of an effect on his performance. The Bucs are due to hit on one of these many failed top prospects that Huntington has such an affinity for.
Nice research for historical argument you presented.
He won’t be any good if I draft him.
After I clicked on the headline, I was halway expecting to find the content of the article reduced to the singular assessment of:
Will Brandon Wood Figure Things Out?
by Eric Seidman – April 22, 2011
No.
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Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He is also the co-creator of Brotherly Glove.
Same here.
Brandon Wood and Brandon Allen would, however, be fun to watch on the same AAA/PCL team.
I’m sure Brandon will play well vs. the Cubs!
Quoting this article, also from FG
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/brandon-woods-a-free-man/
Guess hitting environments plus a ton of K’s do make THAT big of a difference.
I think the common thread is, then angles are really much worse at developing talent than they are at scouting it out. The thing about all of these players that seems striking is that they all had multiple solid or better seasons in the high minors. They are though totally unprepared for the major leagues, and while its clear they have tools, they are all raw, despite spending many years developing. The best examples of this are Ervin Santana and Brandon Wood, though Dallas McPheareson, Howie Kendrick, Kendry Morales (when he first came up) all fit that tools above skills mold.
I think its a combination of their system being a bit overrated, and their almost total inability to consistently prepare the farm players for the majors.