Win Curves and Player Pricing
As expected, there were two basic responses to yesterday’s news that the Tigers had agreed to pay Prince Fielder $214 million over the next nine seasons:
1. “That’s just way too much money.”
2. “As long as he helps them win, the cost is irrelevant.”
I’m part of the group that says the former, as I simply don’t think that the Tigers are going to get a very good return on their investment in Fielder, and if they had this kind of money to spend to upgrade their roster, I think there are far better ways they could have used that money to produce a better team overall. However, while I think the second point ignores the fact that signing Fielder wasn’t the only option available to to the Tigers, I understand the desire to focus on total wins rather than cost efficiency. After all, the point of baseball is to win a championship, not to finish first in the $/WAR standings. Efficiency is a method to help create a championship caliber roster, but it isn’t the goal in and of itself.
And, those that argue in favor of the deal are arguing from a premise that holds some truth – the Tigers were absolutely in a position where each marginal win is significantly more valuable than the average. I referenced the win curve theory in the post yesterday, but it’s worth expanding on briefly. If you’re not familiar with the concept of the win curve, this article by Vince Gennaro from 2007 is a good place to start. I’ll highlight one of the important passages:
A team’s location on the win-curve — their absolute level of wins — has a dramatic impact on the value of a win. To understand the power of the win-curve location, you only have to look as far as the marginal revenue of a Twins team in playoff contention. A five-win improvement for financially challenged Minnesota, from 86 wins to 91 wins, would yield $6.8 million in incremental revenue. When comparing this revenue estimate with teams who are striving for respectability (78- to 83-win category), their marginal revenue is greater than all teams except the Mets. The location on the win-curve is so important that it often trumps market size as the key driver of a team’s marginal revenue opportunity.
As Gennaro’s data shows and is generally understood by most fans, the wins that get you from good team to great team are worth a lot more than the wins that get you from bad to good. As the word curve implies, the value of a win is non-linear, and peaks between the 85-95 win levels, where the marginal return on each additional win is significantly higher than on wins below 84 and above 96 – those wins don’t move a team’s playoff expectations needle all that much.
Given the Tigers roster after the Victor Martinez injury, they projected as a mid-80s win team, and were at least somewhat vulnerable to upstart runs by the Indians and Royals. Even as division favorites, their chances of stacking up against the contenders from the East and West in the playoffs weren’t very good, so taking real steps to upgrade the roster was the right decision. The wins that the Tigers bought with Fielder are more valuable than an average win, and thus, the decision to go after those wins was justified.
However, player pricing is not solely driven by a team’s internal valuation of the marginal value of wins added to their franchise. The cost of wins in free agency is determined by the aggregate demand for wins by all 30 teams in a given winter, and of course by the supply of wins available. Regardless of the value of a win to a specific team, they only have to offer an amount some degree higher than the next best offer in order to buy wins in the market. For instance, the Red Sox need for another starting pitcher and their position on the win curve means that a pitcher like Roy Oswalt is likely worth far more than $8 million to their franchise in 2012, but since the market for his services is significantly depressed, they don’t have to pay him based on their rate of return – they just have to pay more than what he could get to sign somewhere else.
When determining whether a team should spend money on a particular player, we cannot simply focus on the value of wins that the player should be expected to provide to that franchise. That certainly belongs in the discussion, but you also have to factor in the price for wins in the market, as that price is essentially the cost of an alternative option. The price for wins in the free agent market over the last few years has been between $4-$5 million apiece. Based on a projection of Fielder producing about +25 wins over the next nine years, the Tigers paid about $8.5 million per win. You’ll have to believe that inflation is going to go bananas to believe that this contract isn’t going to turn out badly in the long run.
You can justify some amount of overpay based on their current position in the win curve and the return that they can expect to get from those wins. The fact that Martinez’s injury happened so late in the off-season, after most of the quality free agents had already signed elsewhere, is also a mitigating factor. However, those are reasons to pay $6 million per win, not $8.5. They justify overpaying a little bit – the Tigers overpaid by a lot.
The value of a win is important to understand, but you cannot simply ignore the market price of wins in determining whether a contract was a good idea or not. The Tigers spot on the win curve justifies higher than average expenditures to improve their team for 2012, but it doesn’t justify signing Fielder instead of just pursuing a combination of Edwin Jackson and Carlos Pena, who could have improved the team to the same degree without requiring anything close to the same level of long term financial commitment.
Whether a contract is justified or not depends on both the value and the relative price of wins. Focusing solely on one is simply not a good way to evaluate the worth of a deal. You have to look at both.
I think this was an awful signing. Using Jeff Zimmerman’s contract calculator, CAIRO projections, and MARCEL like projections for baserunning, and my WAR spreadsheet, Prince Fielder should be worth 100 million over 9 years. Nothing close to 214 million. Although this might increase their chance at winning a championship, that’s -114 million bucks.
114 million bucks that the current owner, in his mid-80s and worth nearly $2 billion, won’t miss.
The Tigers aren’t going to die in a few years, and the contract doesn’t become null and void when Illitch passes. His age might help rationalize why he’s being careless with the team’s future, but it doesn’t make it any better of an idea for the franchise.
but it will handicap the team’s budget
Wooh! That’s 5% of his net worth, of course he’ll miss it. These aren’t just greedy money hungry d-bags they’re human, just like me and you. When they have an emotional moment and overpaid for it, they’ll regret it just like I regret my HD DVD player.
Dave, I don’t think there’s any question of that. The team is almost certainly losing money, even before this contract. Hopefully the next owner doesn’t slash payroll too badly to try to make a profit, but I won’t getting my hopes up.
“Wooh! That’s 5% of his net worth, of course he’ll miss it. ”
He’s not paying 5% in one year, it’s spread out over 9. 5% interest on a net worth of two billion (not that he’ll necessarily get that, this is just an example), is $100,000,000 per year. Subtract 25 million from that, he’s still $75,000,000 ahead on the year.
Moral: the rich are not like you and me.
Conclusion: The Tigers are still going to be hurt by that contract if the owner dies or sells in the next 10 years. Not all billionaire owners are alike.
Hey, Great Grandpa, does this Prince Fielder contract mean that I am actually going to have to get a job when I grow up?
Even if all you care about is winning championships, the Tigers messed up. If they had simply invested in different players this offseason (Jose Reyes, CJ Wilson, Ryan Madson, etc) they could’ve had an even greater chance at the World Series while paying less money. No matter how loudly and incessantly you shout “Championships are forever,” that’s still going to be true.
@Yirmiyahu: But you don’t understand, see. They had a logjam of quality players at the SS and SP positions, what with Peralta and superstars like Fister and Jacob Turner in the rotation! What they NEEDED was a DH/1B type, since they had nobody to man those spots for the next few years!
Oh, wait. They have already have a fat guy who mainly plays 1B? And a guy named V-Mart with little defensive value that was slated for DH through 2014? Well shucks, come to think of it, getting Reyes and a pitcher might not have been a bad idea…
Isn’t it great when you don’t have to worry about payroll.*cough cough* Yankees.
What I’m curious about is what the Tigers will do next year with the 1B logjam of Fielder, Cabrera and V-Mart.
I don’t think at 82, the current owner is going to enjoy the investment or be able to pack a dime to help him with the boatman. Him worry about the long term health of the franchise, comeon he’s an owner in an era of owners like Wolff.
well Mr Zimmerman and your spreadsheet don’t understand market economics very well apparently, as they say that Fielder and Rickie Weeks are the same guy. #statnerdunreality
… or you’re underestimating the difference in value between a good defensive first basemen and a poor defensive first-basemen? Weeks doesn’t need to hit anywhere near as well as Fielder to be worth the same.
Fielder would need to produce 39.4 WAR over 9 years. That’s 4.3 per year. With my method above, he should have 4.3 next year. With aging he’ll almost surely be below 4.3
…Except the whole point of the article was how wins are priced differently. The Tigers are a fringe contender without Martinez (89 Pythag win in 2011 with Martinez).
This signing essentially assures playoff birth in 2012 and look very good in the Central in 2013 and 2014 with Cabrera, Verlander, and Avila all under contract for that time. Prince will still be in his prime for ages 28-30 moving to a division with weaker pitching. Detroit is now the only powerhouse in their division and should make the playoff each of the next three seasons, which will do wonders for the revenue stream. The Phillis were 6th in the NL in attendance in their first division winning season of their run. Now they’re unquestionably an elite revenue generating team. Detroit is a big enough sports market for a similar event to occur. This contract is a gamble, but it’s a smart gamble.
One thing that makes this marginally better is that there are possibly hidden wins in the third base situation. I doubt that if Carlos Pena had signed, Miguel Cabrera plays third base. There is obviously much room for disagreement on how well Miguel Cabrera will play third base, but if it works out to be anything less than a complete disaster, getting Inge out of the lineup could be worth a couple extra wins.
This is an important point. I believe the entire deal hinges (at least for the short term) on whether Cabrera can be serviceable at third. If he can put up something in the -10 UZR range, then the Tigers have increased his value, on top of the added production that Fielder provides (effectively enabling them to upgrade from Inge/Betemit/Kelly to Martinez in 2013-14). Most national analysts are dismissing the chances Cabrera can do that defensively at the hot corner, but he wasn’t that bad his last two full seasons at the position (-3.4 UZR in 2006 and -4.2 UZR in 2007), so it’s not absurd to think that he’d only be Aramis Ramirez bad, rather than Mark Reynolds bad, at least after an adjustment period.
If that happens, it changes the analysis of the Fielder contract significantly.
No it doesn’t. You don’t pay a man extra money based on some theoretical fit to the rest of the roster.
I think it’s a real stretch to think that Cabrera will be worth “only” -10 runs at third. He hasn’t played the position full-time in four years or at all since early 2008. By the time the season starts, he will be four years removed since last playing third. The last two years, he’s cost the Tigers 10 runs with his defense at first, and third is the harder position. Also, he’s huge. The Tigers website has him listed at 6’4″, 240. That is mammoth for a third baseman. So he’s a bad defensive first baseman with mobility problems moving to a harder position which he hasn’t played in four years. I would be absolutely shocked if he isn’t Mark Reynolds-bad with his third base defense.
I said in the -10 WAR range, so I meant even -12 or -13. I don’t think that’s completely farfetched, given the conditioning that Cabrera has done over the off-season to get ready to play 3B. Is it likely? Probably not, but I’d say there is at least a 1-in-3 or 1-in-4 chance that he can reach that. If he does, he’s the best 3B in baseball, hands down.
Could have accomplished the same thing with Pena right?
If moving Miguel Cabrera to 1st was a good idea, the Tigers could have done it at any time. Last year, VMart could have been the primary 1st baseman, and they could have rid themselves of Inge’s bat.
There’s a reason they didn’t do it – it’s because it’s likely Cabrera will be a disaster at 3rd. The prize of Fielder made them overlook this fact that they had previously accepted.
There is no room for disagreement on how Miggy will play 3rd. He’s going to be hideous out there. There is no reason other than incredible homerism or recalcitrance to expect anything other than ‘hideous’.
Some people think he’ll be so bad that he’d have more value as a DH. Others think that he’ll manage to be slightly more valuable as a 3B than a DH. There’s the room for disagreement. Unless there’s a consenus on one of those options that I’m not aware of.
Glad it’s settled then. I’m sure the Tigers will alter their plans now that “Richie from FanGraphs” has spoken.
BTW, for those that believe Cabrera is too fat to play 3B, this recent photo would beg to differ:
http://www.blessyouboys.com/2012/1/25/2732084/cabby-looking-slim-maybe-he-can-pull-off-the-3b-thing-afterall
This junk about -25 run junk is ridiculous. He was at -4.5/150 before he moved off the position. He looks to be in great shape, -10/150 would be more than reasonable.
“I’m sure the Tigers will alter their plans now that “Richie from FanGraphs” has spoken.”
I won’t hold my breath when the Tigers fail to apologize to “Richie from FanGraphs”, who’s analysis turned out to be spot-on.
They could have gotten Inge into a part-time role a lot more effectively by signing Reyes and moving Peralta over to 3B though. Way cheaper, too.
This entire analysis is based on the supposition that Fielder will net 25 WAR over the entire term of the contract. While certainly possible, it’s also plausible that he’ll roll off something along the lines of 5-5.5-5-4.5-3.5-3-3-2.5-2.
That gets you down to a much more reasonable $6.3 million/win.
That is certainly a much more favorable projection for Prince, but given the track record of guys like Ortiz, Vaughn, and even Prince’s dad, who were serviceable to age 34, it’s not unreasonable, especially considering how much better Prince was than those guys at similar ages.
Yep. Dave probably shouldn’t have said: “You’ll have to believe that inflation is going to go bananas to believe that this contract isn’t going to turn out badly in the long run.”
Or at least added that “You’ll have to believe that +25 wins is an unrealistically low projection over 9 years to believe that this contract isn’t going to turn out badly in the long run.” Especially since I think it’s the at least slightly more likely scenario.
On the flip side, I’m wondering what the possible future Competitive Balance Tax impact is. How much room does Detroit project to have before they have to effectively even more per win for Fielder?
Prince’s dad cracked 2 WAR in a season only once after his age 28 season and had negative WAR in his age 34 (and final) season.
While I am dubious of Prince aging well, he’s a very different guy than his dad- primarily in his behavior, conditioning, and agility. Cecil, by all accounts, was a man with more than a few vices that likely detracted from his career and shape. Additionally, Cecil was always a far slower guy than Prince and worse at contact- indicated by the fact that his highest average was .277 and his second highest was 0.260.
From what I can see of Prince, he’s a more athletic guy than Mo Vaughn or Cecil Fielder. I could imagine a David Ortiz style aging curve (which would be a very good outcome), but Prince Fielder does seem to carry around more fat. I’m not sure how that will impact his later years.
My comp might actually be a guy like Ryan Howard, but trading a bit of power for average. Howard is about 4 years older, and has been productive over that span but with slowly decreasing playing time and now an injury. If Fielder gets injured, say bye to breaking even. But even if he doesn’t, I don’t see the Tigers faring that well. But that’s still a WAY better outcome than a Cecil comp.
Wow, Prince is going to increase his average from 5.1 the last three years to 5.5 the next two? And he’s still going to produce 2 WAR at age 37, despite having no base running or fielding value? He has less base running value at age 26 and 27 than David Ortiz had at ages 35 and 36, what will Prince be like then?
I never said it’d happen, but my off the wall projection had him averaging 5.25 WAR over the next two years, not 5.5, and that’s not absurd for his age 28 and 29 years. His last year of the contract is going to be age 36. So drop it down to 1 WAR that year, and the point still remains that Cameron’s analysis is based entirely on a questionable 25 WAR total over the life of the contract for Prince. It’s not a foregone conclusion that he’ll max out at that level, reasonable minds could differ on that. That’s all I’m saying.
The problem is that Dave is trying to estimate average value, while you are spitballing what he “might do”, which means one time in five or even ten. So yes, 10-20% of the time Prince will exceed reasonable forecasts by enough to make this a reasonable deal. The rest of the time, however….
I hope this is wrong.
…
[re-reading]
…
[thinking]
…
Dave Cameron hates Detroit!
Dave wrote a good piece and outlined the situation well. But add all of the factors up and what do you get?
This was just a bad contract.
Agreed.
All of this Ilitch is an old billionaire and just wanted to spend money recklessly is stupid.
It is the job of the GM to make sound decisions EVERY time, at least the very best they can at the time.
This was not one of those decisions.
Has anyone heard anything about Washington’s max offer? The contract would be even worse if it turns out that there were other bids near that level. The other way that this contract is “bad” is the effect it will have on baseball generally. Agents are going to look at this ill-considered monstrosity and make it even more difficult for teams to retain their young stars. If Pujols and Fielder are getting these contracts, and they’re not even the best players *at their position*….there will be some insane contract demands coming up.
sorry *NO other bids near that level.
An increased redistribution of wealth to the proletariat. It’s a beautiful thing, isn’t it?
Heh, yeah. There are 300M Americans, 1200 rostered MLB players, and 30 owners. So that’s the 0.0004% getting wealth redistributed from the 0.00001% Progress!
Dave,
Have you ever written a complimentary Tigers article. Yety they won 95 games and took Texas to the brink..now they’re better.
Your brain has been waterlogged by years of Mariner futility.
Teams sort out positional issues..Carlos Pena and Edwin Jackson..we tried that,, years of futility and maddening mediocrity. Statistically decent..contributions to winning baseball..not much.
Why would Dave Cameron be biased against the Tigers? There’s no plausible explanation for that view.
Reminds me how the hometown fans of both cities tend to believe that national football television color commentators are biased against their teams.
A guy named “sportz” has no idea what he’s talking about? Shocker.
He’s not biased against the Tigers, per se, but he’s biased against any team that doesn’t adopt his world view of how to run a baseball franchise. Personally, while Dombrowski’s moves haven’t always been perfect, he’s hit far more often than he’s missed, especially on major long-term investments (Pudge, Maggs, Miggy, Verlander). I trust Dombrowski (even with Illitch-driven decisions) over Dave Cameron and FanGraphs, personally.
I trust an actual analysis of the moves over an appeal to authority, thanks. Even very good GMs make poor moves.
How much better do you think the Tigers would have been if they would have signed Jose Reyes and Yu Darvish instead of Fielder? The money was about the same (although you’d probably have to add some to Reyes’ contract to get him to go to Detroit over Miami). Would the Reyes/Darvish combo be 5 or more wins better than Fielder alone?
Those 2 are very risky, between Reyes’ dependency on his legs and injuries to those legs, and Darvish has no MLB track record.
You wouldn’t have to pay Darvish + Reyes for 9 years, and you are asking two players to provide 5 WAR per season. Even if Darvish has no MLB track record, I think one can make a good case that it’s far less risky to gamble on Darvish providing 2-3 WAR per season for 5 years than to gamble on Fielder averaging 4 WAR through age 36.
Jeff you are discounting the fact that the 5 WAR produced by Prince are concentrated to one lineup spot
Were CJ and Reyes signed before Vmart was injured? If so the argument that the tigers could get better production from them doesn’t hold weight.
Why do you hate the Tigers you biased prick
I think you meant “why did my Tigers do something so dumb?”
i think he meant “i know a meme from a while ago and will type it now”
why yall hating on memes
Regular season wins are not the end, but a means to the real end. Of making the playoffs, and going on into further rounds. The AL Central Tigers were NOT in the playoff ‘sweet spot’, but beyond it due to their lack of foreseeable competition. They’ve massively overpaid for security for this season. When (if??) a healthy VMart returns, they’re paying what, $60 mill a year, for 3 defensively-challenged 1st basemen.
Joey Votto and his agent are doing cartwheels
The messed up thing is that I would bet against Votto ever getting a contract of this magnitude, despite the fact that he’s the more talented player with the better chance of rewarding a nine-year investment. There will be a downward correction, especially if contracts like this are determined not by market forces but by some goofball owner’s whim.
I agree. Teams seem to “overpay” 1b based on their WAR/$ (Howard, Pujols, and Fielder). Seems like MLB teams don’t have the same position fielding penalty for 1b as WAR uses.
Well it isn’t always necessarily wise to assume the positional adjustments used are 100% irrefutably correct. They are good estimates but the game changes pretty rapidly. Not to mention there are other factors at work 1. sales/revenue 2. the possibility of belief in a concentrated WAR premium ect.
Does the win curve get negative at the bottom, as wins make your draft pick worse? Certainly, I think there are A’s fans who feel that way, though if revenue from attendance and improved TV ratings (for future TV contracts) go up enough, I suppose that would make going from 69 wins to 74 worthwhile.
I can’t imagine it ever getting negative. Particularly/Especially since it’s really a ‘wins expectation’ curve. It’s just not feasible to aim for the absolute worst record in a season. I recall reading that the 1st pick returns considerably higher value than the second pick. But even then, factoring in that you have to pay that guy more, well …
Dear
idiotspeople who think that Cameron hates the Tigers:If Dave Cameron hated* the Tigers, this article would be written more like this:
See the difference?
*He might actually hate the Tigers, but he doesn’t write like it
Forgot to close a strike tag.
The value of a win is important to understand, but you cannot simply ignore the market price of wins
in determining whether a contract was a good idea or notThank God the Tigers did! Sadly The Tigers spot on the win curve justifies higher than average expenditures to improve their team for 2012, butit doesn’t justify signingthose fools signed fat Fielder instead! Losers.For those that are convinced Cabrera can never play 3B due to his weight, he’s lost a ton of pounds this off-season:
http://www.blessyouboys.com/2012/1/25/2732084/cabby-looking-slim-maybe-he-can-pull-off-the-3b-thing-afterall
So Dave Cameron doesn’t like one of my moves? I’m shocked, shocked I say. I’ll just have to drown my sorrows by settling for 3 straight playoff appearances the next three years…
Considering Fielder helps very little past this year, and the Royals are greatly improving, I’d bet against three straight years.
We’ll see!
One thing I have yet to see anybody discuss is the impact the Fielder signing will have on non-Tiger operations. The Illitch family not only owns the Tigers, but also own a number of the businesses surrounding Comerica Park. The greater the traffic to Comerica, the greater the traffic to the bars and restaurants surrounding Comerica. Considering the fact that a winning team brings in more traffic to the stadium, the Illitch family can take advantage of this increase not only in baseball revenues, but in revenues unrelated to the team itself. How does this impact a $/WAR calculation?
Did they factor in the extra pizzas Prince will be having delivered to the clubhouse for post game “snacks”?
Hahahaha you called Prince Fielder fat! Look everyone, he said PRINCE FIELDER CAN EAT A LOT OF FOOD hahahahahahahah.
A key part in this article wasn’t that spending money to improve the team was a bad idea.
It’s that it was a terribly inefficient way to spend money to improve the team. If the Tigers were choosing between Prince and not spending any money, it’s a good deal talent-wise. This wouldn’t make much sense though.
We all agree it is an overpay. Not sure why this is surprising. This happens most off seasons. It is a better contract than Pujols due to age and injury history. It is better than signing Crawford last year with the plan to use his plus-plus defense in the smallest LF in baseball. It is better than signing Jayson Werth, Jason Bay, Chone Figgins, John Lackey, etc etc. This is free agency.
Also, please take name calling to ESPN message boards.
This is a far worse deal than any of those. Every one of those has/had the possibility to provide excess value.
“1. “That’s just way too much money.”
2. “As long as he helps them win, the cost is irrelevant.””
Both of those responses are indicative of fans internalizing the mentality of the GM/ownership group. Why don’t fans speak from the point of view of the player? The extent to which fans have internalized the employer’s mentality rather than the employee’s is absurd and disconcerting. Unless we’re all Tigers fans, I see no good reason for this default approach among fans.
?????
There’s also the problem that Dave presents these options as something of a false dichotomy.
A third view (that largely meshes with my view) is that overpaying for elite talent is pretty much the price of acquiring elite talent in free agency. So as long as the overpay is very roughly on the order of the market overpay rate (which based on the Pujols deal, seems to be the case with Fielder’s deal), I’m okay with the overpay if the odds of a flag flying forever are significantly increased.
“A third view (that largely meshes with my view) is that overpaying for elite talent is pretty much the price of acquiring elite talent in free agency.”
Except for all those times when, you know, that wasn’t true.
Pujols and A-Rod are elite talent. Fielder barely breaks into top 5 in his position. (A-Gon, Pujols, Miggy, Votto ahead of him imo.) Fielder just isn’t an elite player, and he’s also short and 300 lbs.
I do think the argument that Fielder is not elite has some merit. However, he is the youngest of the top 5 1B*, so that’s probably worth a little extra as there’s still some possible growth there, especially seeing as how he substantially cut his K% in 2011 without a huge drop in power.
*as determined by previous three years WAR — which matches up with Jeff’s list with Pujols at 21.5, Fielder at 15.3, and the other three between 18-19. Fielder is also #5 for the last 2 years, and #4 last year.
Though it really comes down to definitions — if you think elite means there’s potential to put up a 7 WAR season or demonstrated consistency close to 6 WAR, Fielder’s on the very periphery of that range.
This got me interested in grabbing some more hard data in how well elite free agents usually do on the open market. If you define the difference between elite and non-elite to be the line represented by Fielder’s WAR in the three years prior to signing a new contract (15.3, which I’ll call the Fielder line), there were only 7 elite free agent hitters between the 2006-2007 offseason and this offseason: Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Andruw Jones, Carl Crawford, J.D. Drew, Jayson Werth
Of those, only A-Rod, Pujols, Holliday, and Crawford seem to combine both the subjective and objective criteria to be defined as elite. Dipping below the Fielder line, 25 other free agent hitters signed contracts of at least $20 million total and had a 3-year WAR of at least 7 at the time of signing, some of whom might also be considered elite even if their 3-year WAR doesn’t quite match Fielder’s. In order of 3-year WAR, those players are as follows:
Mark Teixeira
Chone Figgins
Derek Jeter
Adrian Beltre (signing with the Rangers)
Jorge Posada
Aramis Ramirez (re-signing with the Cubs)
Aaron Rowand
Manny Ramirez
Carlos Lee
Jose Reyes
Julio Lugo
Juan Pierre
Alfonso Soriano
Milton Bradley
Luis Castillo
Jimmy Rollins
Carlos Beltran
Victor Martinez
Gary Matthews Jr.
Torii Hunter
Aubrey Huff
Mike Lowell
Rafael Furcal
Raul Ibanez
Jason Bay
So, from A-Rod on down to Bay, I see very few contracts that weren’t (from my memory) considered to be at least somewhat overpays at the time of the contract. At the time of signing (going by my memory, which may be faulty) only Holliday, Drew, Figgins, Beltran, Reyes, Beltre, Aramis, and maybe Andruw Jones were considered relative bargains — or about 20-25% of this sample — and obviously most of those guys aren’t really elite either.
So I do feel like the data support that overpaying is largely the price of acquiring a elite free agent hitter. Fielder may still be overpaid even moreso than the typical overpay. And Holliday’s deal still looks amazing for the Cardinals.
Because it’s fun to play GM. Why do you think millions of people enjoy fantasy baseball?
Because fans want their teams to win, not have happy players.
I think the other overlooked factor is that the owner is 83 years old, correct? If that is the case I’m sure he wants to win a championship before he passes?
Dave, a point someone raised over at HBT is this–this isn’t a business decision. Michael Ilitch is 82 years old, and he can’t take his money with him. So why not? Obviously that’s a psychological answer, and maybe not satisfactory, but he wants to win now, while he’s still here to see it.
So he didn’t sign Wilson and Reyes two months ago because he was younger then and not as hungry to win?
Did you know, Oliver, that rich people spend a lot of time and money planning financially for their deaths?
Wow, gee Jeff, you don’t say??
Only if they have someone they care about that they want to leave it to.
Most of them set up a foundation to protect it from the death tax. Not a big deal to do so if you have enough to pay the attorneys and accountants to set it up.
Poor signing for any number of reasons..
1. Really, Miggie at 3b?
2. OR, Victor at C, Avila on bench when Martinez returns
3. Who else really was bidding? If not competition, why pay high $
Guess the prices of Little Caesars pizza are due for a price hike.. long overdue, and it will be substantial !
Yes it’s a lot of money. But there are several factors that no one is mentioning/ or mentioning very little:
a. Power production is an absolute premium price thing – CPena is cooked & Tigers weren’t going to wait for next years crop.
b. Fielder is his entering prime – you can be biased against fat people all you want, but he hasn’t stopped hitting yet.
c. It’s too easy to predict doom. Fielder isn’t a putz or anything like JWerth, who was ‘obviously’ way overpayed. This isn’t a respect signing.
d. Really, how hard is it to trade for/find middle infielders that can field? Stop padding arguments by projecting terrible fielders for every position.
Unless there are more injuries, the Tigers are head & shoulders above the rest of the division. I can’t wait to see this lineup at work.
I’m sure a number of people who are pronouncing the idiocy of the Fielder signing now are the same people that were fawning over the Crawford signing last off-season.
Yeah, probably. But the Crawford signing was absolutely a better signing based on what was known at the time the contract was inked.
Lets see. He had one really good, not great, offensive year, that being his contract year. His value was built on defense, but Fenway was not a very good fit for him in LF now that I see he is afraid of walls and has a noodle arm (only 1 assist all year and Fenway is an assist haven for LF’ers),. His hit charts showed he would not take advantage of Fenway since he only hit GB/LD to the left side, and his FB power was short in Fenways deeper RF.
Crawford was a poor signing. Might still work out, but he was barely replacement level last year, so he needs to regress a lot coming off wrist surgery.
He is only 27, so I can see Fielder at +36 WAR over a 9 year period, or about 6 million per win if he stays healthy. His value is increased as a DH which he will be at the latter end of his contract since he is a poor fielder. Of course, if he ages like Mo Vaughn he will be a disaster.
Assuming inflation for wins at 5%, you would be looking at the market paying over 6 million per W before the end of his deal.
Not a great signing, but having young players as wage slaves for 6 years allows you to overpay free agents.
Also, I think the Tigers still get a good chunk of revenue sharing dollars, and making the playoffs generate a good chunk of revenue as well.
The AL All Star team is going to be pretty stacked at 1B next year with the addition of Pujols and Fielder,who join A-Gon from the NL.
36 WAR over 9 years is just not likely. Even if you don’t see the quite possible massive decline in his 30s that his body type indicates, he’s just never been good enough to project an average of 4 WAR when you include his 30s. He’s only averaged 4.4 WAR per year the last five years.
“He is only 27, so I can see Fielder at +36 WAR over a 9 year period, or about 6 million per win if he stays healthy. His value is increased as a DH which he will be at the latter end of his contract since he is a poor fielder. ”
He is barely averaging over 4 WAR the last five years, now he’s not going to regress until he is 37?
And his value isn’t really increased as a DH, the Tigers still need to pay a first basemen (or third baseman) and the roster loses flexibility cause you can’t rest Miggy at DH or start VMart. Prince actually will create less WAR for Detroit than his stats will indicate, because he’ll cost Miggy and VMart WAR.
I am a fan of WAR and defensive metrics just like everyone else here, but sometimes it’s the “old-school” baseball analysis that shows where extra value could be found over the next few years.
Obviously M.Cabrera will be very poor defensively at 3b, but what if he gets in better shape in the offseason each of the next three years to ensure he can handle it. It makes him a better hitter and player, and the workouts also increase his chances of staying healthy(pulled oblique anyone?).
Secondly, he will see A LOT more pitches to hit this year with Fielder hitting behind him than he would’ve without Fielder. I’m not so sure projected WAR covers all the details of a real-life baseball season like how many good pitches other hitters in a lineup would see due to an addition.
This all said, I really like defensive metrics, w/OBA, WAR and the like. I’m just know all the variables aren’t covered with these, and see a couple factors that could add future wins.
I think it’s pretty much agreed upon that “seeing better pitches” because of who bats before or after you is a myth. Also, I can’t believe you’re suggesting that playing 3rd base will make Miggy less prone to injury and work harder. It’s like you think Miggy works into the weight room and says “oh **** it I’m a 1st baseman” and just plays video games.
I don’t think that his work ethic will change playing 1B vs. 3B, but the type of conditioning he does will most certainly be affected. At 1B you can handle more weight and muscle mass. At 3B, he’ll need to be quicker and more nimble. The effect that that will on his offense is anyone’s guess, but I suspect it would have an impact.
Back on topic, this two statements strung together are contradictory.
“The cost of wins in free agency is determined by the aggregate demand for wins by all 30 teams in a given winter, and of course by the supply of wins available. Regardless of the value of a win to a specific team, they only have to offer an amount some degree higher than the next best offer in order to buy wins in the market.”
It is not the aggregate demand for wins that determines the cost for wins. The market pays too much (Fielder) and too little (Oswalt) for wins every year. The only thing that determines how much a FA player gets paid is how much a single team thinks he’s worth, and how lower than that they think he can be had for. If the market value for wins was really whatever Dave thinks it is this year, we would see at least the majority of players sign for a number very close to that. What we actually see is most players sign for above or below that, and then the Fangraphs guys take all that money, in a year try to reconstruct how much “wins” cost. It’s voodoo economics.
All you’re saying is that some teams overpay for wins in free agency. Dave isn’t saying that the $/wins amount is what all contracts go for. It is what the correct amount that teams should shoot for if they want to get proper value for their free agent dollars spent.
Well, if you look at it that way, Dave isn’t really saying anything. To put that first statement into an algebraic equation it would be :
W (Wins) x P (Pay) = P x W
But what really sets the price on a single free agent player is:
Runnerup bid value + bribe to get him to your town (where runenrup bid value is not always certain).
When you sum up all the FA contracts at the end of next year to determine your the $/Win value, it’s not really what the market does (for the most part), so it doesn’t make any sense to evaluate it in that light.
The Tigers figured that Fielder to them was worth $27 million a season for 10 years (let’s say that’s 45 WAR total). They figure the next best offer to him was 8 years at $23.5 million per year. To them it made sense to offer a little more than that, so they went with 9 years at $23.7 million, saving them $3.7 million per year.
It doesn’t really have anything to do with Jose Reyes.
But at the end of the signings period, Fangraphs will take 100 free agent signings, each decision made basically with the process I described above add up their contracts, wait a year to see how much WAR they achieve, and then divide them to find the market rate for WAR, then nitpick GM’s using the model, that no GM uses or should use.
It’s the same sort of economics that lead to the housing bubble crisis (in reverse). You don’t use macro economics to make micro enonomic decisions.
That doesn’t even adress the faulty logic of comparing projected values (what a free agent makes) against historical value (the WAR he achieves). Fangraphs should be using projected value of a player over the life of contract to determine their value per win.
“That doesn’t even adress the faulty logic of comparing projected values (what a free agent makes) against historical value (the WAR he achieves). Fangraphs should be using projected value of a player over the life of contract to determine their value per win.”
This, absolutely. I made a spreadsheet to do some of own checking of these things, and one thing I found is that the $/WAR of the based on projected contract WAR was always higher than the $/WAR of the trailing pre-contract WAR. I’m new to this, so I may have done something horribly wrong… but I found that the trailing $/WAR for all the $20+ million hitter contracts since 2006 was $4.1 million, while the projected $/WAR for the same contracts was $7.6 million. Which of course isn’t that different than Fielder’s contract.
So basically it was a good signing to a bad contract? I hope the Tigers do win a Championship with Fielder, but I don’t see it happening this year.