11.5 + (-2.8) + 0.2 + 7.3 + 23.9 = 40.1 40.1/10 = 4.01 WAR

wRAA + UZR + UBR + POS + REPL

Jose Reyes is listed as having 4.5 WAR in 2012. Could you please let me know where I’m going wrong?

]]>I think I’ve managed to fake it regarding adjustments for run environment. I hold no hope for being able to do the full wOBA year-by-year calculations as described, as the Baseball Databank obviously doesn’t apply, and even if it did the SQL is Greek to me. But I can gin up a runs-per-out number for a season in my fictional league, and compare that and the home run total to past years to find a decent fit in the Iwts_woba spreadsheet, and I can live with that for now.

I’m really stuck with the park adjustments though. I’m trying to get from wRAA to the Batting value, but just can’t figure out the correct equation to put into Excel–or if I’ve found the right park adjustment data at all. I’d hoped there was a simple factor I could multiply the wRC or wRAA by…but it’s obviously more complicated than that. I’m stumped, and have no idea how to get to the Batting value figures found here.

]]>Actually, I tried to explain this to your mom, and she still didn’t get. Ba dum tish!

I’ll get my coat.

(Btw I’m not a troll and I love your work, keep it up)

]]>As for the weights, I presume you mean these:

HR 1.70, 3B 1.37, 2B 1.08, 1B 0.77, NIBB 0.62.

Those are simply linear weights values above the out. If the LWTS value of an out is -.30, then you get:

HR 1.40, 3B 1.07, 2B 0.78, 1B 0.47, NIBB 0.32

As for how you figure out those weights… I’ll try and give the thumbnail sketch version here.

Every base-out state — as in, bases empty, no outs; or runner on second, one out — has an expected run value, or the average number of runs that score between now and the end of the inning. The linear weights value of an event is the average change in that run expectancy after that event.

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