Winter Meetings Live Blog, Day 1

Travis Sawchik: Greetings from Northern Hemisphere Salon B ballroom at the Dolphin hotel in Orlando

Travis Sawchik: I am sitting beside Eno Sarris. I can see Jeff Sullivan among other notable media members

Travis Sawchik: They and others will hopefully be in this room throughout the day

Travis Sawchik: There’s a lot going on!

Travis Sawchik: Let’s get started …

Matt: As Red Sox fan, how terrified should I be of the Yankees now?  Also, how worried should I be about Dombrowski doing something, well…ill-advised?  And will he?

Travis Sawchik: I would be pretty concerned about the Yankees and about a potential over-reaction from the Red Sox

Travis Sawchik: The Stanton trade has leapt the Yankees ahead of the Red Sox by a game in our projected standings http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

Travis Sawchik: Jackie Bradley Jr. might be traded for a less-than-desirable return

Travis Sawchik: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/the-dave-dombrowski-overre…

Travis Sawchik: Red Sox should take a deep, collective breath before doing anything

CamdenWarehouse: As an Orioles fan, how concerned should I be about Dan Duquette’s comments that they didn’t attempt to sign Ohtani  “because philosophically we don’t participate in the posting part of it.”?

Travis Sawchik: Every team should have posted the $20m just for due diligence

Travis Sawchik: I forgot who made the analogy, but Ohtani was basically a winning powerball ticket going to be awarded in a town of 30

Travis Sawchik: Gotta participate

Tom: So….JBJ…. what are the early guesses as to where he ends up?

Jackie Bradley Jr.: Where am I playing on Opening Day?

Travis Sawchik: Dave kicked around the Jose Abreu rumor today in his IG post …

Travis Sawchik: Giants would make some sense

Travis Sawchik: Basically, if you need a CF he’s a good one to target

Andrew: Who takes on Jacoby Ellsbury’s contract, and what kicker do the Yankees have to throw in to get it done?

Travis Sawchik: The Phillies could take on the salary. And rather than spend on a free agent right now, it might make sense to obtain a top young asset or two for winning to take on Ellsbury

Travis Sawchik: You’d have to attach a pretty significant prospect to dispose of the entire contract

Ben: Assuming health, who is the best defensive CF in 2018? Kiermaier? Buxton? Hamilton? Pillar? Someone else?

Travis Sawchik: Buxton

Travis Sawchik: He’s amazing

Ben: Which duo will be worth more position player WAR in 2018? Trout and Ohtani or Stanton and Judge?

Travis Sawchik: Trout and Ohtani

Travis Sawchik: Fun question

Adult Autograph Seeker: I like the Morrow addition & it being a 2 year deal.  High ceiling.  Do you think the Cubs are better off using him in a high leverage Andrew Miller-type role & bringing in a Reed/Kintzler type for a clean 9th?  Or do you believe they are taking him on as a closer?

Travis Sawchik: I’m all for using your top reliever in a Miller-like role, especially a player who isn’t concerned about saves being tied to arbitration earnings

Bored Brad : Dave Cameron says Gyorko/Carpenter for Donaldson is enough. Does this seem like an underpay?

Travis Sawchik: It’s reasonable but if I’m the Jays I want to get younger than that

Rill: How likely is it the Giants will get JBJ?

Travis Sawchik: If I’m the Giants, JBJ would be a top target

Travis Sawchik: I think they ought to be a favorite to land him if he’s moved

Cold in Canada: With Yankees, Angels, Indians, Astros, and Red Sox all primed for playoffs runs for the near future, what do the Jays do with Donaldson? Build around him or trade him?

Travis Sawchik: Time to move Donaldson, I think.

Matt: Potential landing spot and asking price for Clint Frazier?

Travis Sawchik: Clint Frazier is now a pretty clear trade chip to be used to acquire some type of pitching

Travis Sawchik: If I’m the Pirates, I’d listen to Frazier in a package for Gerrit Cole … especially if they are motivated to move McCutchen  as has been reported

Capt’n Canada: With a Healthy Greg Bird, just how good can this offense be??

Travis Sawchik: Scary good

Travis Sawchik: Byrd for a full season at Yankee Stadium II would be a lot of fun

Travis Sawchik: And I still think Yankees are favorites for Harper next offseason and find a way to move Ellsbury

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: Got a friend there doing interviews trying to get a job, how packed is it over there?

Travis Sawchik: Pretty packed. There are always hundreds of job seekers at the winter meetings

Ed in Iowa: Food Rec: the bread and dip service at Sanaa at the Animal Kingdom Lodge is super! The rest of the food is also really good

Travis Sawchik: Thanks, Ed!

Daniel: What teams are interested in Marcell Ozuna?  What kind of prospect package would it take to acquire Ozuna?

Travis Sawchik: All the teams snubbed by Stanton (Giants, Cards) ought to be interested in Ozuna and Yelich .

Ed in Iowa: Let’s say we expect Machado to get 12yr/$400M next winter. What percentage discount on that could an acquiring team hope/expect him to accept now? Like if they had a 48hr window to negotiate an extension how much is the risk of injury or underperformance in 2018 worth?

Travis Sawchik: 10 percent

Travis Sawchik: ?

Matt: So, all things considered what are your thoughts on the STanton trade? I mostly agree with Cameron. In most trades, contract situations more or less wash out. Not the case here, and I think it’s irresponsible to ignore the fact that the Yankees traded some players for the right to pay Stanton a bunch of money (and for the Marlins not to). I don’t think his contract is *that* far below market rate.

Travis Sawchik: The Miami situation is a mess. I agree, that in a vacuum, the traded isn’t unfair. The problem is the Marlins have perhaps the worst farm system in baseball and not only cannot afford their best player but werern’t willing to take on morer salary to net a biggerr prospect rerturn

Travis Sawchik: Trading Stanton for cash relief is really bad outcome if you are a Marlins fan, like the two of them remaining

Travis Sawchik: Ideally, an ownership group in Miami is able to absorb most of Stanton’s contract and he’s traded for a much better prospect return

Matthew E: Is it theoretically possible for a baseball team to get so good that there’s no point in trying to compete with it?

Travis Sawchik: There’s a point where a rival team might be so good you start playing for the next year and next, next year and beyond

Hingle McCringleberry: True/false – MLB and its other owners deserve the majority of the blame for the marlins ongoing firesale for approving the sale of the club to an ownership group that clearly lacked the financial resources to field a respectable roster

Travis Sawchik: I think that’s largely true

Fat Matt: With Stanton reducing his K’s last year, is it possible that he’ll help to make Judge even better?

Travis Sawchik: Yep. Good teammates that share skills can add value to a team. See Justin Turner with the Dodgers

Travis Sawchik: What gets lost a little bit with Stanton is he’s not just a slugger, he reduced his strikeout rate by  six points and made real positive gains last year that went beyond whether or not the ball is juiced

Sonny: Today is a good day to remember that baseball can be weird as hell and no one knows nothing from nothing. Don’t quit on your team in December!

Travis Sawchik: I think we’re entering an era of super teams where things like playoff fields will become more predictable

Travis Sawchik: Mike Ferrin bet me that one of the Astros/Indians/Yankees will NOT make the playoffs … I am taking him up on it when I track him down in this sprawling Disney hotel

TP: Are you relieved to be discussing non-Ohtani topics finally?

Travis Sawchik: Eno is working on an Ohtani piece beside me so I might not be answering Ohtani questions but I keep talking about him

Carlos Santana: Word is that CLE offered me a 3/36 extension. Any change their low ball offer dissuades me from resigning with them this offseason?

Travis Sawchik: I don’t think that’s an insulting offer … but I don’t think that’s an offer he’d sign

Lou Whittaker’s Chagrin: How much does a year of McCutchen cost to acquire?  How should Dombrowski freak out?  Sign JD Martinez and Arrieta, then trade for shutdown setup help?

Travis Sawchik: I think we’ll see JD Martinez in Boston

Travis Sawchik: McCutchen is a reasonable Plan B for teams interested in JBJ

Travis Sawchik: McCutchen’s acquisition cost ought to be reasonable with just one year of control

Travis Sawchik: But how can Pittsburgh deal McCutchen when he just named his son Steel?

Sonny: What does consolidation of talent do to remaining FA? Do borderline contenders bow out of the top tier with an eye towards later seasons?

Travis Sawchik: It cannot be good for the middle-class of FA

Travis Sawchik: There’s going to be some significant guys unsigned as camps open, I think

Tall Man: Stanton + Judge = most incorrect called strikes below the knees in a single season, right?

Travis Sawchik: Yes

Travis Sawchik: Aaron Boone’s biggest job ought to be working home plate umpire during their at bats

Cubbie : Does Schwarber for Alex Colome smell fair?

Travis Sawchik: No

Tayne: Is JBJ for Schwarbs a fair trade or would one side need to add in a little sumpin-sumpin?

Travis Sawchik: I could see that maybe … I still think Cubs ought to move a bat for an arm

emlazar: Have any of the FG staffers been traded to the Mariners for 40FV prospects yet?

Travis Sawchik: Is that all we are worth?

Travis Sawchik: A few million in projected future value?

Jay: How big a deal is Jeter not being at the meetings? I get he just dealt the former face of the franchise in a fiasco of a sequence but unclear what is precedent for people in his role.

Travis Sawchik: Seems like he should be here as the face of a franchise regardless of the trade

Travis Sawchik: And he lives in Florida!

Schmoo: No Jeets? How unprecedented is that? Or does it just make him look terrible?

Travis Sawchik: Not a great look

Sonny: If I went on a hunger strike until Dave Dombrowski made a major move right now would I miss dinner?

Travis Sawchik: It’s a risk, man

Travis Sawchik: Could miss breakfast tomorrow, too

Capt’n Canada: So… Judge and Stanton eh?

Travis Sawchik: While I hate the trade for Miami, I do think it’s pretty awesome for baseball

Joe: Realistically, what could the Red Sox acquire if they were to make the (poor IMO) decision to trade Jackie Bradley Jr?

Travis Sawchik: Brandon Belt?

Jimmy Ballgame: Is this a make or break week for the Mozeliak regime?

Travis Sawchik: It’s a long offseason … and I think they will do something significant in the OF or with Donaldson

J: What should the Yankees spend their remaining budget on?  CC?  2B with versatility for when Torres is ready?  Insurance at 1st or catcher?

Travis Sawchik: Those all make some sense. I think moving Ellsbury is a priority.

Travis Sawchik: I think there could be some value later in offseason at first base

Justin: Are the Mariners now screwed or royally screwed?

Travis Sawchik: Mariners need more trades. Ohtani was a huge blow, obviously. But they are still within striking distance with health and some savvy moves

YKnotDisco?!: T/F: The Giants should target Marte instead of McCutcheon?

Travis Sawchik: I’d rather have Marte, so Marte

ATCQ: Dave Cameron seemed to absolve a lot of blame from Jeter and Co. on account of the outrageous and scandalous tomfoolery that was Loria and the resulting debt.  Is it really MLB’s fault that the only people who wanted to buy a club $400MM underwater can’t afford Stanton?

Travis Sawchik: Dave pointed out that that debt was part of the $1.2 billion total purchase price which is the going rate for a major sports franchise

Travis Sawchik: The average MLB team is worth $1.54 billion, according to Forbes

Travis Sawchik: https://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#tab:overall

Travis Sawchik: Forbes had the Marlins valued at $950 million in 2017

Travis Sawchik: I don’t know enough about interest in buying the club to speak on how many suitors there werer

Doyouphilzme: What could and should the phillies be doing in Orlando?

Travis Sawchik: Phillies are in an interesting place

Travis Sawchik: According to Craig Edwards’ estimates, no club has more money to spend — between payroll and revenues

Travis Sawchik: But is this the right time to spend it? Maybe a little. But I’d be waiting for Machado and Harper next offseason

Travis Sawchik: I do think they ought to consider taking on a bad contract for quality prospect talent

Giants: Fangraphs has us at 77 wins right now. How much would trading for Cutch, and signing Cain and Moustakas move the needle?

Travis Sawchik: I believe two of the worst positional groups in baseball last year were the Giants’ LF and 3B spots

Travis Sawchik: So those would be significant upgrades and could push Giants into  mid-80 win totals

Logan Davis: Odds Jerry Dipoto wakes up Friday after a four-day sadness bender to find himself having traded away the entire Mariners farm system?

Travis Sawchik: Better chance of this happening than not

Ohtani Kitaen: JBJ for Belt?

Travis Sawchik: That makes some sense

Kevin: What kind of package would it take the Braves to get Yelich?

Travis Sawchik: I’d love to have Yelich

Dub: whyhyyyyy Carson Wentz whyyyyyy

Travis Sawchik: Ugh

Stall Man: Would taller umps call strike zones better for players like Judge and Stanton? Or is the problem that they assume all balls of a more or less a certain height are simply strikes?

Travis Sawchik: Taller umps would have more of an issue calling the low strike

Lou Whittaker’s Chagrin: I would encourage Pittsburgh to convert their economy to plastic or renewable energy to avoid any awkwardness with Cutch.

Travis Sawchik: Ha

Michael: Will the FG guys be mingling in the bars tonight?

Travis Sawchik: I think so!

Eric: Now that the Yankees are back to being the “Yankees” and the Red Sox likely try and keep step, do you think BAL will realize they need to trade Machado NOW?

Travis Sawchik: Baltimore should have traded Machado a year ago, probably. But I’d be in tear-down mode

A Random Dude: Per your note on Cubs moving a bat for an arm: what do you think it would take for the Cubs to get Archer, and would such a trade make even more sense for TB now? Friend and I thought Russell and/or Schwarber would make the most sense as the main guy.

Travis Sawchik: I think Archer makes a ton of sense on the Cubs and a match could be made there

Ethan: in your opinion is MLB better off with a bunch of average-good teams or a handful of super teams?

Travis Sawchik: I think you want some super team, but not too many super teams. You want the majority of teams to enter a season with a shot at least a wild card

pinstripe: Hilarious listening to Jeff get excited that he can hate the Yankees again. How do you feel about the Yankees taking over again?

Travis Sawchik: I think Cashman and company deserve a lot of credit for what they’ve done over the last few years. As a kid, I was a Yankee hater but my fandom has been muted as a sports journalist so now I just respect good processes more than anything

Travis Sawchik: Do I want to see the Yankees dominate MLB for a decade as an objective person? No. But if they build a new 1927 Yankees offense that would be cool

Jerry: Does Clint Frazier have enough value to net a decent SP?

Travis Sawchik: He can be part of a package

Travis Sawchik: Can he lead it? Depends on what ‘decent’ means

Lou Whittaker’s Chagrin: If Santana signs elsewhere, how pressed are the Indians to buy a bat?  They have a prospect coming up at 1B right, but they still feel a little bit light of a load.

Travis Sawchik: If Santana leaves, Indians could use a bat … but they also have an advantage of having a pretty sizeable projected edge in the Central as is (11 games according to our projections). They can be patient

Ben: When will there be a Steamer projection for Ohtani and the Angels projected record be updated?

Travis Sawchik: Soon!

Travis Sawchik: We were discussing this last night

Justin: Who would be willing to take Ellsbury, even at 1/2 price? Just PHI as you mentioned? And what could a return be?

Travis Sawchik: I think Tigers and White Sox could make some sense, too. Basically, pay for prospects

Uncle Rico: What’s Eno having for lunch?

Travis Sawchik: Let me ask ….

Travis Sawchik: Waiting for response …

Travis Sawchik: ‘Maybe this energy bar’

Travis Sawchik: [I look on in horror]

Bryan in Boise: Which available Free Agent is going to sign for less than expect? My guess would be Eric Hosmer

Travis Sawchik: Agreed. He’s going to get far less than his ask of 8y/$200 million

Travis Sawchik: I think Hosmer might make sense to a club on a deal of half that in terms dollars and years

Lunar verLander: Reports of Astros considering pursuit of top starters + Boras representing Keuchel = almost zero chance of extending Keuchel. Think this means that the Astros FO doesn’t like their chances to re-sign Keuchel in 2018, or just making sure they’re set up beyond 2018 regardless of Keuchel’s decision?

Travis Sawchik: That doesn’t seem to bode well for retaining Keuchel

ATCQ: Would Nyy rather have a short-term piece like Lowrie, or a younger guy like Cesar H who might end up blocking Wade/Torres/Andujar?

Travis Sawchik: I’d love Lowrie in NYY. Fly-ball guy

Dub: Why would anyone take on Ellsbury’s contract? The prospects Yanks would have to part with would be top 3 in their org, Ellsbury has a ton of $$ remaining and isnt a starter on any MLB team

Travis Sawchik: There’s always a price

Travis Sawchik: It would have to include significant prospect talent

Travis Sawchik: Ellsbury has $68 million owed

Travis Sawchik: A 65 FV grade hitter is worth $70 million https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/

Travis Sawchik: There’s a starting point

Brent: Saw post on Baseball America this morning that MLB players that have faced Ohtani report a flat fastball that hitters will be able to square up. Any truth to this? I assume if we had data and graphs on very/hort movement, I would have already seen it on here.

Travis Sawchik: It has above-average spin. Mike Petriello noted it’s very similar in terms of spin and velocity to Severino .

Matt: I was pretty convinced that the Yanks would move Ellsbury this offseason. Rumors now though, seem to indicate that he is quite intent on earning his job back and doesn’t want to move. If that’s the case, what would entice him to accept a trade, and would it necessarily be after losing his job (for sure) in Spring Training?

Travis Sawchik: The no-trade is a significant obstacle

Travis Sawchik: But it could be accept a trade and playing time, or become a reserve outfielder

Dan: Isn’t the biggest impediment in trying to deal Ellsbury is his NTC? What would really motivate him to leave a franchise that is on its way up? He might just be happy as a PT player. Would the Yanks just release him if he refusing to accept a deal out of NY? Thanks.

Travis Sawchik: That is a significant impediment esp if he’s OK as a reserve player

Mikey: Tell the GMs around there to get going!!! It’s after 1 PM and nothing!!!

Travis Sawchik: I will let Eno know to bother them!

John S: What do you make of the Padres reportedly interested in FA first basemen?  Makes zero sense from where I sit.

Travis Sawchik: It seems a little early  for that

Brian: So…what actually happens at the Winter Meetings? Are there seminars? Is it mostly just private meetings about this stuff that we rumor about? What’s everyone up to right now?

Travis Sawchik: There are seminars, there are opportunities for job seekers to arrange interviews, the media sits around, chases rumors and meets with GMs and managers…Much of the baseball industry is under one roof

John Jaso Jingle Heimer Schmidt: Name one prospect you’d ask the Yankees to throw in just to take Ellsbury’s contract

Travis Sawchik: I’d start with Gleyber Torres

Travis Sawchik: I assume Cashman would hang up

Travis Sawchik: I’d call back and work down the list

Travis Sawchik: The Yankees have enough prospect to get something done without Torres being involved … the no-trade clause complicates matters of course

Fat Matt: If he can help similar improvements happen for Judge, this will be amazing to watch.  (It already will be)

Travis Sawchik: Yep. I could see Judge making contact gains. I don’t assume he is done developing

Kevin: Can you tell me why the Braves are seen as a team that is going to continue to struggle for a long time? Freeman, Acuna, Ender, Albies and Swanson (hopefully) make a good/great core. 5,000 high end pitching prospects just cracking MLB or will soon. Very little finanical commitments going forward.

Travis Sawchik: Nightmare of an offseason but as you outlined, the Braves have a number of assets. I think they could be relevant again very soon

Tiss: % chance Stanton is great and then opts out?  % chance Stanton struggles with injuries and stays, leaving the Yankees with 7 years of a bad contract?

Travis Sawchik: 45/55

Travis Sawchik: Maybe 42/58

Pumpsie Green: Stanton and Torreyes in, Castro and Holliday out. Are they really THAT MUCH better? Don’t they still need starting pitching?

Travis Sawchik: They need another arm but Severino/Gray/Tanaka/Monty is not a bad place to be on Dec. 11

Travis Sawchik: And that bullpen …

Zonk: Is Castro going to stay in Miami, or would you bet he’s moved along to someone like LAA or NYM?

Travis Sawchik: I suspect he’ll be moved, too

Best Friends: The yankees have deep pockets, they would NEVER trade a top prospect for someone to take Ellsbury off their hands.. Not Torres, not even Andujar, Not Adams, not anyone of real value. Ellsbury is not sunken cost! 34 mil for 3 years for a 2+ WAR player

Travis Sawchik: Ellsbury still has some value, so his contract would not completely be a sunk cost, true. But at 34, with three years remaining plus a buyout …. It’s not good

RSO: Who is a better fit to play LF Stanton or Judge?

Travis Sawchik: I think they are pretty similar … their range and arm scores are even similar.

Oddball Herrera: It’s been brought up that Stanton’s move to Yankee stadium may not actually move the needle on his performance, since he’s the king of ‘no doubter’ home runs and doesn’t really need much help on that front.  But is Yelich at the other extreme?  I can’t find the guy’s hit charts, but I have to assume he’s a guy who could add 5+ HR if he moved to a non-cavernous park.

Travis Sawchik: And if he continues to cut down on ground-balls …

Josh R: How unfair is it to Cleveland, Texas, Milwaukee, the Dodgers, the Padres, etc, that the Marlins have 2 World Series titles?

Travis Sawchik: Isn’t that something?

Babe Lincoln: This chat busier than usual?

Travis Sawchik: Pretty busy

Jstodola : What do you like better: SABR Analytic Conference, Sabr Seminar, or Winter Meetings?

Travis Sawchik: I’ve never been to SABRAC. The Seminar was a lot of fun, too. But I like that during the meetings you get to see a lot of people within the industry including work-related friends

ATCQ: Whoever asked that clearly doesn’t understand the mediocrity of Castro and the lousiness of Holliday in the second half..

Travis Sawchik: I will take Stanton end of the equation

YKnotDisco?!: Jack Morris?

Travis Sawchik: I know, I know

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Dave suggested that previously borderline AL teams like the Rays should strongly consider rebuilding for now while the “super teams” play all of the October ball. But when your best tradedable asset is something like Chris Archer on his contract (or, heaven forbid, KK), you’re basically hoping that whoever you get can turn into those players for a few years until the arb gets too expensive. What would you do?

Travis Sawchik: It really is a vicious cycle. It’s why I dislike the Stanton trade so much for Marlins

Louis Sockalexis: Let’s say the A’s are willing to sendLowrie to the Yanks for Ellsbury.  What return could they get?  Torres plus?

Travis Sawchik: I don’t think Yankees would move Torres in a cash dump. I’d be shocked.

Travis Sawchik: But I think they have the farm depth and motivation to get below luxury tax floor to create flexibility to include prospects in a dump

Sleepy: Watching the Angels simultaneously waste two generational talents is gonna make me sad.

Travis Sawchik: I think they are WC2 favorites at the moment … Sale-Ohtani in AL Wild Card game coming soon!

I am the Walrus: Is a trade built around Sano for Benintendi viable?

Travis Sawchik: Where would Sox play Sano?

Daniel: Is it too early to ask what the Dodgers are going to do next year?  I keep seeing that the luxury tax is stopping them from being major players this winter but what do they do with all the savings next year?  Just spend it all on a Kershaw resigning?  I can’t see them going for an 8-10 year contract with Harper/Machado.

Travis Sawchik: I’m just trying to get through this week!

Travis Sawchik: Teams are more motivated to stay below tax, though

Travis Sawchik: Alright folks, I have to step away from the live blog and create some FG content. Stanton/Cashman/Boone are about to speak here in the press conference room. However, we will soon have someone pick up the chat baton ….

Travis Sawchik: Paul Swydan is arriving soon …

Paul Swydan: OH BABY

Paul Swydan: Guys, I think Travis wants to eat lunch.

Paul Swydan: I have already eaten lunch, and am sitting at the fabulous Cabana Bar, which is outside of the Swan and Dolphin.

jim: Why do I waste my time with the Mets?

Paul Swydan: It’s all a mystery. The Wilpon’s really don’t deserve to own a team.

Sonny: Paul Swydan, cool piece on Angelos and his history with labor! People are complicated!

Paul Swydan: Thanks very much. I would suggest also reading the Twitter thread that Jeff Long posted, he has some good insights as well.

stever20: So were the Nats a big winner in the Stanton trade?   Makes division easier for ’18, and then takes away Yankees as a bidder for Harper for ’19 and beyond….

Paul Swydan: Well, I think the Yankees were the big winner of the Stanton trade. But for the other 29 teams, they’re certainly at the top, for 2018 only. I don’t think the Stanton trade makes the Yankees less likely to sign Harper, however.

Sonny: Can you convince me a JBJ trade (at least one Dombrowski would make) could make the team better? What other pieces need to move to make it all work?

Paul Swydan: Well, if you’re thinking STRICTLY in terms of 2018, JBJ for McCutchen and a reliever would probably make the Red Sox better. Or at least more reliable.

Joe: Paul, I’m an Orioles fan, I wanted to thank you for your incredibly charitable portrayal of an organization that many of us suspect is actually just a dumpster fire.

Paul Swydan: It may be! But I have always believed that Dan Duquette doesn’t get the respect he deserves for his role in building the Expos and Red Sox juggernauts. And after reading a little more about Angelos, I’m willing to consider that we’ve gotten him wrong too.

Sonny: Last Red Sox CF to play Fenway as well as JBJ? I’m coming up empty trying to equal the range, jumps, arm, etc

Paul Swydan: Darren Lewis?

Paul Swydan: Yeah I’ll say Darren Lewis. Ellsbury and Coco Crisp are up there, but they didn’t have the arm that JBJ has

Paul Swydan: .

ATCQ: Can Gianny and Judge both be picked for HR Derby?

Paul Swydan: Sure. Weren’t both Judge and Sanchez in the HR Derby in 2017?

Reykjavic Puffins: Any word as to why the Rockies aren’t all over Carlos Santana?

Paul Swydan: The Rockies never say much of anything, that’s why it’s always surprising when they do stuff.

Slamboni: As a Rangers fan… Do I have any hope for optimism? Now we are the 4th best team in our division and even the A’s could overtake us for that…

Paul Swydan: As long as Adrian Beltre is there, there’s always hope.

stever20: what were your thoughts on Morris and Trammell getting into the Hall of Fame?

Paul Swydan: Well, I wrote a couple weeks ago that I was tired of the Hall of Fame, and the VC electing Morris is a perfect example of why. It’s pretty clear to me that Luis Tiant was a better pitcher than Morris, but that’s not what matters.

Paul Swydan: I loved Trammell. He was on the cover of the first issue of Sports Illustrated I ever got, in 1987 I believe. Happy for him, but Miller, Tiant, Lou Whitaker, etc. All should get their due.

Joe: I think Angelos is actually a good person and I understand his principled stands, but if he’s not affecting change in his industry then he’s playing a game without a full deck.

Paul Swydan: That’s a very fair stance.

GB: What can the Ms do with all the international $$ they acquired for their run at Otani? Seems like the top Braves signees have already agreed to go elsewhere.

Paul Swydan: Possibly nothing.

Paul Swydan: They can sign guys with it up until next July 2nd.

Paul Swydan: So, if there were diamonds in the rough that slipped through the cracks, or someone else who becomes eligible, that sort of thing.

Paul Swydan: But Eric Longenhagen knows far more about that.

Reykjavic Puffins: Would JBJ be a good fit for the Rockies in Coors? Move Blackmon over to RF, Desmond in LF and Tapia/Dahl,Tauhmann as depth?

Paul Swydan: He would be a perfect fit in Coors, but I don’t see the Rockies motivation, since Dahl — if healthy — is good enough to be a starter.

8 cups of coffee later : is there any hope for a nervous red sox fan who is afraid of the overreacting that could happen by their front office??

Paul Swydan: Getting drunk and blacking out?

Paul Swydan: Just kidding, I’m not actually advocating that.

Pete: At what point does MLB ask the Wilpons what their goal is here? I understand they are not really breaking any rules, but MLB can not be thrilled that one of the teams in the biggest market is a total none factor when it comes to signing any notable free agents no?

Paul Swydan: The Wilpon’s and Bud Selig were very close, and I think that that ship sailed a long time ago. Perhaps as the Selig Era gets further in the rearview mirror.

ATCQ: Is Brian Cashman the most gangster GM we’ve ever heard of?  The only real bad moves in the last ten or fifteen years have been ownership (i.e. Ellsbury, Rafael Soriano, etc.).  Meanwhile, well, look.

Paul Swydan: Absolutely, and I’d argue that the Ellsbury signing wasn’t really that bad.

tb.25: How has Moncada’s value changed through 2017? Not much has been said of him beyond his k-rate issues.

Paul Swydan: I think for the time being his value has been slightly downgraded, but that he retains most of it through at least the end of the 2018 season, and then we can re-evaluate.

Kosch: Will teams start offering shorter term / higher dollar contracts?  I would rather overpay for a player’s quality age-seasons then have an albatross on the books for the decline seasons…like Hosmer 3 / 90M vs 6 / 150M.

Paul Swydan: The issue with this is that in the past, or recent past, players have valued the number of years over the number of dollars.

Take Machine: Hi Paul — First time, long time. Do you think the Padres can be next year’s D-backs? I mean if they make some splashes in FA and hit a few of those prospects, they could be sneaky in 2018. I’ll take the answer off air.

Paul Swydan: I don’t, sorry. But there’s always a hope.

Paul Swydan: always hope

Paul Swydan: sorry

Sam: Via Jeff Passan:
Giancarlo Stanton’s advice to Marlins fans: “Maybe watch from afar if you’re going to watch.”

Paul Swydan: I think that’s excellent advice. The team shouldn’t be rewarded for its cowardice.

Tiss: Paul.  Any positive news about the O’s on fangraphs.com is good, but I might disagree on Angelos.  Isn’t the league minimum and arbitration system biases against players?  If his “principled stance” only applies to international players it isn’t so principled after all.

Paul Swydan: Well, sure, but he’s not able to skirt the minimum salary and arbitration systems.

Schmegs: JBJ to SF for Belt?

Paul Swydan: I’d rather have JBJ, but this trade would be better than trading him for a non-first baseman and spending $$$$$$$ for Hosmer.

A Tribe Called Kipnis: What’s the most Disney thing that has happened?  For example, when standing in line for breakfast, did Stitch accost you?

Paul Swydan: Haha, sorry to disappoint, but we’re not staying on property. FanGraphs is doing well, but not THAT well.

Jerry: Pirates are rumored to be sellers. I prefer they keep Cutch but trade Cole! Return would be bigger for Cole and you keep Cutch as face of the organization. If he leaves next year, so he it! That said I would also try to sign him for 2 or 3 more years if possible

Paul Swydan: I wholeheartedly agree with this take, IF the Pirates are sellers, which I obviously don’t think that they have to be.

Kevin: You got your tickets to the 7:00 Star Wars show on Thursday night yet?

Paul Swydan: Nope, 3 pm on Friday. I take my son out of school. It’s an annual tradition.

Aaron J: Will the MLB ever try to make the Wilpons spend more money?

Paul Swydan: I think if they were going to, they would have done it already.

Jock: Is a package of Jed Lowrie + a FV 45/50 prospect enough to get Clint Frazier in return? I think NYY could use Lowrie at second and backup at SS/3b until Torres is ready and Oakland could use Fraizer’s bat.

Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t think so, no.

Sleepy: Last year, the Yanks paid a combined $30 million in salary to A-Rod, Brian McCann and Chris Freaking Carter.  Cashman has a safety net that would allow him to fall off a 70 story building without a scratch.

Paul Swydan: That’s fair, but the moves he makes are calculated with that safety net in mind.

Paul Swydan: You know what, let’s put it to a poll.

Paul Swydan:

ATCQ: Would CLE avoid trading someone like Kipnis to NYY on account of a likely postseason encounter?

Paul Swydan: I don’t think of Cleveland as that type of team.

Paul Swydan: But I also don’t see why Cleveland would want to sell low on Kipnis from a return perspective. But maybe they’re selling the story that they need to clear his salary.

Tom: How much would you go over your “I logically shouldn’t spend more than ____________ on a house” budget if you found the “dream house”?

Paul Swydan: Hmmm.

Paul Swydan: We went 5-10% over when we were bidding on houses, but I wouldn’t call my experience instructive.

Sam: Did the Red Sox forget that JBJ is a pretty good player with a pretty high floor? Someone should probably remind them of that.

Paul Swydan: I think unfortunately JBJ’s wild swings in performance are scaring the Red Sox off from signing him to a long-term deal, and if they’re not going to try and keep him long-term, then he should be on the table.

ATCQ: Wilpons just signed Cespedes like, last year.

Paul Swydan: Yes, they did, and perhaps I’m too hard on them. But I don’t believe that they’re even remotely good owners.

Paul Swydan: Google “Jeff Wilpon sexual harrassment”

tb.25: Rockies have expressed interest in Santana. Thoughts on that, as opposed to getting an OF and moving Desmond to first or retaining Reynolds?

Paul Swydan: It’s only worth retaining Reynolds if they are out of money.

Paul Swydan: He ended up back at the same 104 wRC+ you would expect from him.

Paul Swydan: Moving Desmond to first would be fine, but I think the Rockies’ best strategy involves Desmond being a 4th outfielder/utility player.

Paul Swydan: And I’d rather they didn’t sign an outfielder, because I’m still wanting them to hold a roster spot for Dahl.

Paul Swydan: And I like Tapia as well.

Sam: Why hasn’t Dipoto swung a trade yet? It’s after 2:30!

Paul Swydan: Unbelievable!

ATCQ: Re: Cashman – it was ownership that resigned A-Rod for 10/$275MM.  Eating McCann money was designed to get better prospects like Guzman who just got them Stanton.  Chris Carter was a low-cost risk of ~$4MM that didn’t pan out, happens.

Paul Swydan: Yeah, I’m not sure that Carter should have been grouped into that group of failures.

Paul Swydan: “failures”

Sonny: Is Fangraphs this only place on the internet where the median of 5 choices gets the most votes?

Paul Swydan: No?

McGirkTheJerk: Dodgers and White Sox match up for Jose Abreu?

Paul Swydan: I think it’d be easier for them to just play Bellinger at first base.

Paul Swydan: But yes, the Dodgers certainly have the prospects to deal, and they could move Bellinger to the outfield, though if you believe in Andrew Toles, their outfield is already crowded.

Mikey: Donaldson for Gyorko, Grichuk and Kelly?

Paul Swydan: Maybe, yeah. I don’t really think Toronto would want Gyorko, but Grichuk and Kelly fit the scope of what I’d think a deal would be.

Geebs: Paul for fans of other teams in the AL East this BS just feels history repeating itself, it should great watching the Red Sox and Yankees battle it while the other 3 fight for 3rd place for the next 15 years…. great… so that being said, what the point of being a fan of any of those teams now?

Paul Swydan: There are TWO Wild Card teams now.

Paul Swydan: But yeah, I can’t think of a reason for excitement for the 2018 Orioles and Blue Jays.

Paul Swydan: As I wrote a couple weeks back, the Rays could put together a contender, but I’m hearing they’re moving in an opposite direction.

Brewers Fan: Should a team try and trade for Jesus Aguilar and who would fit best for the Brewers at 2nd Base?

Paul Swydan: No, I think Aguilar was a nice success story, but I wouldn’t see him having a ton of value to another team.

Paul Swydan: As for second base, pass for now.

Dreamer : Teheran and a high level prospect for Chen and Yelich. Braves take on all money. Is that something or am I living in a fantasy land.

Paul Swydan: I think you’re closer to fantasy land than reality. Sorry.

tommy: What you sipping?

Paul Swydan: Water, right now.

Paul Swydan: I had a beer earlier though.

Coz: Jerry Reinsdorf is old and wants another winner, but it may be 3 years before the White Sox get to that level.  Do you see Machado or any other big names as possibly landing there given that ownership may want to go big?

Paul Swydan: Not without signing an extension, no.

Uncle Rico: Shouldn’t the  the Red Sox  just sign JD and then trade JBJ to Chicago for Abreu and Cease?

Paul Swydan: I have written for Boston dot com that I would recommend not signing JD Martinez, and instead waiting on trying my hand at one of Harper, Donaldson, Machado, McCutchen, Kershaw, etc. next off-season.

Paul Swydan: That was a bad sentence, but you get the point. I hope.

asdgasdgasdg: Better offense next year, HOU or NYY?

Paul Swydan: I’ll say NYY.

ThePole: Does JBJ even return Abreu?

Paul Swydan: As Dave Cameron wrote a couple of weeks ago, JBJ is worth MORE than Abreu.

ctw: you’re now running the pirates, but ownership has stayed the same. what is your path forward?

Paul Swydan: Reminding them of the billions of dollars they earned in the BAMTech deal and nagging them about spending more of those dollars on their baseball team.

Jay: Gut feeling – where does Carlos Santana end up?

Paul Swydan: Honestly, I’ve stopped trying to speculate on destinations. These guys are going to go where the most money is, and it’s hard to try to suss that out for 90% of the free agents out there.

Uncle Rico: You have a link for the article on boston.com?

Paul Swydan: https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2017/11/19/heres-a-reason…

Babe Lincoln: Do the Mets have the biggest gap between what they *should* spend and what they *do* spend?  Pirates?  Orioles?  Marlins?

Paul Swydan: The cheapest teams do, because MLB is doing so well revenue wise that every team can pump their payroll up to the $130-150M level. Most teams just choose not to, because the general public has no idea about how much money the teams really make.

ThePole: Do the Giants get anything done this offseason?

Paul Swydan: I am sure the Giants will make moves this offseason, yes.

Napoleon: Hal Steinbrener said the Yankees aren’t done making moves this offseason.  What other moves would you anticipate?

Paul Swydan: Well they seem to be in the market for a starting pitcher or two.

Paul Swydan: I still expect Betances to be traded.

Paul Swydan: Perhaps a utility infielder?

Sam: God I love that Stanton and co are holding no punches. Via Jayson Stark:
Wolfe said the Marlins told him and Stanton that if he didn’t accept a deal to the Cardinals or Giants, he’d be a Marlin for the rest of his career. Their response: “That’s not going to happen. We want you to continue to look.”

Paul Swydan: Stanton had all the leverage. The Marlins handled trading him about as poorly as you possibly could have, and now Derek Jeter has taken his ball and gone home. Just a disaster.

Babe Lincoln: How much of postseason gate receipts does the home team keep?  Some rough math: 40,000 seats * $200/ticket (average) * 2 home games if you win your division = $16m JUST on ticket revenue (hello parking, concessions, postseason apparel, etc.).  Thus shouldn’t a team in the mid-80s be willnig to spend at least $16m extra to push itself to high-80s and give itself a chance at lots of postseason ca$h?

Paul Swydan: Teams don’t keep 100% of the postseason revenue, because those are jewel events. But they get to keep plenty of it.

matt: So the teams that don’t spend money are the cheapest owners and it has nothing to do with revenue?

Paul Swydan: There is revenue sharing, and pools for merchandise, tv contracts and the MLB.com revenue that all the owners share.

Paul Swydan: They’re all doing quite well.

Tom: If they were able to pull off a trade….An OF of Yelich, Ender, Acuna would make the Braves OF the ___________ best OF in MLB.

Paul Swydan: Hmmmm.

Paul Swydan: Top 10?

Paul Swydan: Not willing to go higher than that until I see just how good Acuna really is.

Lindor: Indians have the ability to use Kipnis and Salazar to assess their needs. What does Kipnis fetch on trade market? When healthy, he’s got a pretty good bat. With Allen and Miller FA after next season, what are the chances that Salazar becomes a high leverage reliever throwing 100MPH out of the pen? 55-65 innings seems better for him to keep him healthy.

Paul Swydan: I can’t imagine he fetches anything. He’s coming off the worst season of his career, and for the first time, he’ll cost more than $10 million this year. If he’s healthy, the contract is a bargain, but you’d have to be convinced of his health.

Ben: You think the Astros will get a big bat? Their offense should be fine as is, but they could still get a 1B/DH/LF type.

Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t anticipate them signing a big bat. I think they’ll probably just bank on better in-season performance from Bregman and Gurriel.

Paul Swydan: Also, they should get an upgrade over Beltran with little effort given how poorly he played in his final season.

Mikey: The Cardinals get one of Colome, Betances, or Britton? T/F

Paul Swydan: I’ll go false.

Marcus Banks: Ohtani didn’t go where the most money is

Paul Swydan: Didn’t he though? Maybe not in terms of his contract, but that money was always going to be severely limited. He landed in the No. 2 media market in the country, and one would expect him to get better sponsor opportunities in the LA market than he would have in Texas or Seattle.

Marcus Banks: banking on better in-season production from a 33 year old Gurriel seems like a poor strategy.

Paul Swydan: I agree.

ATCQ: Best OF: Trout and Co. still, or Judge/Stanton/Hicks/Gardy?

Paul Swydan: I would think the projections would point toward the Yankees.

ThePole: Do teams like Houston and Boston make moves right now that reflect a ‘how to win a 5 game series against the Yanks’ approach or are their roster moves more about shoring up weaknesses based on available players?

Paul Swydan: The latter. You plan for the 5/7-game scenarios in July and August, once you’ve seen how the roster and playing time has shaken out.

Boneless watermelon : Is there actual discussion about a salary floor or is that too rational for the MLBPA?

Paul Swydan: Well, we really don’t know what the MLBPA is talking about. Usually the only time we hear from the MLBPA is when the director – Tony Clark, currently – makes the rounds during Spring Training.

Friendly Friend: Hi, friend.

Paul Swydan: Hi!

estevao: Since 1967, hitters career wRC+ (Min 3000 PA)
1, Bonds 173
2, Trout 169
3, Votto 158
Trout is underrated, haha

Paul Swydan: So is Votto.

Paul Swydan: But yes, Trout is very underrated.

toki: Will Machado be more valuable over the course of his next contract than Harper?  Is that what the Yankees are betting on here?

Paul Swydan: He might be, but given the knee injury in his past, I wouldn’t feel comfortable projecting him as such.

tommy lasagna: dodgers should probably consider moving some of: joc/grandal/stewart?  these guys have to be more valuable to others teams than to the dodgers at this point right?

Paul Swydan: Grandal is supposedly on the block.

Magic 8 Ball: When is Eno going to be interviewed on MLB Network?

Paul Swydan: That’s not my department, but ideally every day.

Tom: Odds Machado goes to a team that isn’t a NYY/Boston/LA/Chicago type market?

Paul Swydan: Strong? There are 23 other teams…

Sonny: of the LCS teams last year how many miss the playoffs this year?

Paul Swydan: I’ll say one. And I’ll that one is the Cubs. HOOTTTTTTTTTTTT TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAKE.

Mister Puppy : Should I get a Starlin Castro Marlins jersey before it’s too late?

Paul Swydan: Only if you love ironic jerseys.

Babe Lincoln: Odds the Nats become deadline sellers?  Wouldn’t that make for an interesting deadline???

Paul Swydan: 5%? I can’t see them falling apart given their division competition, but yes, it would be a hell of a thing.

rR: Judge + Betances for Bryant. Clears up OF logjam for Yanks, gives Cubs cheap bats + bullpen help

Paul Swydan: Wow, no.

Paul Swydan: Neither team is trading either player.

Paul Swydan: The Cubs, in particular, would be bananas to trade Bryant.

Paul Swydan: I could see the case for selling high on Judge, I suppose, but the Yankees aren’t getting Bryant for him.

Ty: What would it take for Machado to be moved?

Paul Swydan: He’d have to make it crystal clear to Orioles management that he’s not going to re-sign there, and I’m just not sure why he would cut off 1/30 of his market like that.

Babe Lincoln: What should the Mets do (other than beg for more money)?

Paul Swydan: Sell.

Paul Swydan: The owners, that is.

Paul Swydan: They should sell to new owners who are willing to spend more money.

Andy: Are Reds ready to try to win again? I think a lineup including Votto, Senzel, Suarez, Winker can be interesting. Rotation has been a disaster. Reds have a budding ace (Castillo), if they target a high-end starter in trade (Archer?), can 3 of the following make a rotation viable for wild card run? Challenge Cubs? (Bailey, Desclafani, Finnegan, T. Mahle, R. Stephenson, Cody Reed, A. Garrett.)

Paul Swydan: Yeah, the Reds are lurking.

Capt’n Canada: Anyone who thinks they are getting TORRES in a salary dump for Ellsbury is insane…

Paul Swydan: There are a lot of hopers and dreamers out there. Don’t rain on their parade.

Richard: How possible is it the Braves could make a deal for Chris Archer?

Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t totally rule it out, I just don’t think that the Braves are anywhere near contention, and that if they trade a bunch of their best prospects to get Archer, then they’re not necessarily any closer to being contenders.

The Bobby Starling Connection: Any research out there on how much a PED suspension costs a player/team with that player in terms of that player’s trade or free agent value? I’m wondering whether Marte might be a realistic get for the Giants this offseason, whereas he probably would have cost more prospect value than they had or could afford last offseason. Or not.

Paul Swydan: Not that I’ve seen, but that’s an interesting topic. I’d say that there probably isn’t a large enough sample size to make a concrete conclusion.

Six Ten: If the Marlins brought $1.2 billion, how much would the Mets bring? Are we near a local peak in team value, or does it seem likely to continue escalating?

Paul Swydan: The Marlins got $1.2 billion, and the Dodgers got $2 billion in 2012. I would think the Mets would get at least $4 billion.

Sonny: When I was a kid I mailed a baseball card to Joe Robbie Stadium for Mike Piazza to sign. Sent it the day his trade was announced thinking mine would be on top of the pile. I haven’t trusted the Marlins since.

Jay: If I showed up to the winter meetings as a fan next year, would there be stuff to do? Ways to stay occupied?

Paul Swydan: Absolutely not.

Paul Swydan: It’s incredibly boring here I’d say, 75% of the time. 25% of the time you get to go to dinner with your colleagues, and then drink in the lobby with contemporaries, but I only attend now because I’m not paying for the privilege. I wouldn’t recommend a fan spend his money on the experience. There is very rarely players or managers or even team execs in any venue open to the general public. UNLESS they’re trying to get media attention for something, and then they’re just surrounded by media members.

Warren: How can the Braves manage to shed Kemp and his contract? Would they have to package Teheran? I worry that the prospect price could be very high…

Paul Swydan: I’d say the Braves are probably stuck with Kemp at this point.

Safety Stegosaurus: The Rays haven’t been able to outdraw the NHL Lightning on an average per game basis since 2014. Does Florida suffer from an over saturation of baseball between all the spring training, minors, and MLB games?

Paul Swydan: You should go back and read the FG Residency articles that Michael Lortz wrote this past summer.

Paul Swydan: He had some really great pieces on the Tampa market.

Jay: What kind of holes can Cleveland patch up on their roster by trading Danny Salazar? Does he have enough value to bring back much alone (or paired with a prospect)

Paul Swydan: I would say the holes they would patch would be smaller than the hole left by trading Salazar. Cleveland is in the zone now where they should only be trading away minor league prospects/players to upgrade the roster.

tb.25: From your experience, what sort of playing and/or data analytic background is needed to get a role at winter meetings with a team?

Paul Swydan: At this point I would say that if you don’t know how to code, you have a very uphill climb. What I would do is make a giant document with all of the qualifications from the jobs that I’ve posted on the site recently, and you should be able to get a good cross-stitch of what teams are looking for.

Paul Swydan: OK everyone, I have to go hunt for a plug because my laptop is going to die. It’s been very nice chatting with you. Until next time!