Yankees Lose Game, Yankees Lose Captain

I will now include, for your consideration, an incomplete list of things this ALCS Game 1 post could’ve been about:

  1. Robinson Cano being called out at first in the second inning
  2. Alex Rodriguez continuing to struggle
  3. Doug Fister picking it up after getting drilled by a comebacker
  4. Delmon Young torching the playoffs
  5. Jose Valverde being a massive liability
  6. Ichiro and the home-run porch
  7. Raul Ibanez condensing a career’s worth of heroics into one week
  8. The Tigers’ bullpen being poorly set up behind the starters
  9. Drew Smyly dominating

The opener of the American League Championship Series did not leave us wanting for twists and intrigue, with the Tigers finally knocking off the Yankees 6-4 in 12 innings and five hours. It’s good to know the crescendo of the Division Series round has carried over into the next. Game 1 left us with entirely too many question marks and talking points, but after everything else, we were left with one major story drowning out the others: Derek Jeter is hurt. He’s hurt bad, and he’s done for the playoffs.

This is a post about one topic, and that one topic is Jeter’s fractured ankle. In case you somehow haven’t seen it, Jeter hurt himself fielding a groundball to his left in the top of the 12th when the Tigers had already pulled ahead. Jeter went down to the ground and had to be carried off the field, not putting any pressure on his left leg. Initial hopes were that he’d simply rolled his ankle; those hopes were swiftly dashed. The Yankees must now move forward down a game and down a shortstop.

Sunday afternoon, the Yankees will play their first playoff game without Derek Jeter since October 8, 1995. At that point, Jeter wasn’t yet an established major-league shortstop, Alex Rodriguez wasn’t yet an established major-league shortstop, and Andy Pettitte was a rookie. Lately Jeter had already been playing hurt, but he wasn’t hurt enough to jeopardize his place in the lineup, and now he is. This is going to be something of a psychological adjustment, just as it was a psychological adjustment to see a guy close games for the Yankees who isn’t Mariano Rivera.

So given the Jeter injury, we have two questions:

(1) How bad is this for the Yankees, really?
(2) How should the Yankees replace him?

We’ll begin with question number one, as you do. You’re all FanGraphs readers, so you’re pretty familiar with baseball statistics. If you’re pretty familiar with baseball statistics, you know that individual players can only mean so much. This isn’t basketball, or tennis. I don’t in any way intend for this to be insensitive, but I’ve prepared an explanatory image.

Figure 1: On Derek Jeter Being Injured

Emotionally, psychologically, whatever, this is one hell of a big deal. I mean, it’s Derek Jeter. Captain, face of the franchise, world icon. It’s almost impossible to imagine a Yankees team without him. It was also almost impossible to imagine a Yankees team without Mariano Rivera. Rivera got hurt on May 3, when the Yankees were 13-11. The Yankees finished 82-56. The argument isn’t that the Yankees wouldn’t have been better with Rivera healthy; the argument is that the Yankees obviously weren’t crippled by his absence.

With Jeter, you could make it as simple as just looking at his WAR, if you wanted to. Three years ago, he was worth 2.8 wins. Then 2.3 wins, then 3.2 wins, for an average of three wins per 162 games. Let’s say he has a replacement-level substitute. Against an average team, you’re talking about roughly a two-percent drop in win expectancy. That is, this year, the Yankees won 58.6 percent of their games. Subtract three, and they would’ve won 56.8 percent of their games. It’s a meaningful difference, but it isn’t a dramatic difference. The Yankees didn’t just lose Robinson Cano or CC Sabathia.

As hard as it is to process the Yankees without Jeter, and as hard as it is to process the idea that downgrading from Jeter to Jayson Nix isn’t devastating, that’s the truth. Given Jeter’s injury, the Yankees are a worse baseball team, with worse odds of beating the Tigers in a game or a series. But the Yankees are about a lot more than just Derek Jeter, and the healthy roster that remains is quite talented. So this series isn’t over, which is something I guess I didn’t need to type.

Maybe I’m not saying enough about the potential psychological impact. Maybe the Yankees are going to be super deflated. The Yankees lost after hearing about Rivera’s injury. But they won the next day, and they actually won seven of their next 11, and there’s way too little signal in here and way too much noise. When you hear that Derek Jeter’s done for the playoffs, your immediate response is “holy crap, no way.” You can’t picture the Yankees without him. But a picture will form in time, and it’s still going to be a picture of a World Series contender.

So we turn now to question number two. It’s not really much of a question, because the Yankees have already decided that they’re going to replace Jeter on the roster with Eduardo Nunez. Jayson Nix is expected to take over as the starting shortstop, and Joe Girardi already said that, no, he will not play Alex Rodriguez at shortstop instead. That would’ve been a neat way to avoid the difficulty of benching him, but it also would’ve put Rodriguez in a weird spot under the brightest lights.

Just because the Yankees have made up their minds doesn’t mean we can’t talk about all this, though. What should the Yankees do? First of all, all of Rodriguez, Nix, and Nunez are right-handed, so there aren’t handedness considerations. I’m of the opinion that the Yankees’ best shot to win involves starting Eric Chavez at third base over Rodriguez, at least when facing righties. So I’m looking at three would-be shortstops.

Neither Nix nor Nunez has much in the way of a defensive track record at short. Nix has been below average in his limited opportunities, but he’s been above average in a lot more time at second and third, so as a shortstop, he might be five or ten runs below average over a season. Nunez’s defense is kind of a disaster. He can cut it, but that’s about all he can do, and that’s why he’s expected to be the backup, behind Nix. That’s why he wasn’t on the roster before.

Rodriguez hasn’t played shortstop regularly in a decade, and his defense at third seems to be somewhere in the neighborhood of average. Were Rodriguez to be shifted over to shortstop, we’d expect his defense to be poor, especially at first, but maybe it wouldn’t be a nightmare. Bear in mind the Yankees have been putting up with Derek Jeter forever. Rodriguez would certainly look awkward and many things would feel unfamiliar, but it’s not like Alex Rodriguez would be incapable.

So we look at the offense. Nix has a career .289 wOBA, while Nunez checks in at .308. Nix was at .304 this year. Rodriguez was at .362 last year, and .342 this year, and based on those differences, Rodriguez should probably be the fill-in shortstop. Based on those differences, the offensive improvement outweighs the defensive downgrade. But a big question is just how much those other Rodriguez hitting numbers mean, since he’s been so much less effective since returning from a fractured hand. His postseason woes continued on Saturday. Prior to the postseason, he had an underwhelming month, and we’ve discussed how his contact rate has gone way down. There’s reason to believe that Alex Rodriguez isn’t at 100 percent, which means we have to take away from his offensive projection.

What’s Alex Rodriguez’s “true talent” offense right now? Is it .360, or .340, or .330, or .320, or lower than that, or what? How does it compare to Jayson Nix’s “true talent” offense right now? Figure Nix is, I don’t know, maybe ten runs better than Rodriguez as a defensive shortstop over a full season. Is Rodriguez at least ten runs better offensively, the way that he is right now? It’s on Joe Girardi to evaluate where Alex Rodriguez stands as a hitter, and clearly, Girardi doesn’t think that Rodriguez is himself.

I think there’s a very compelling argument to be made that Derek Jeter’s playoff replacement at shortstop should be Alex Rodriguez. I’m not in a position to be able to know that for sure, and obviously, it would be challenging for Rodriguez to move over overnight. The Yankees can’t really afford to have Rodriguez make some crucial defensive mistakes in Game 2, after having lost Game 1. It’s safer to go with Nix, and it might well be wiser to go with Nix. I don’t think Girardi even gave the Rodriguez idea much consideration.

And one can imagine how things might’ve gone for Rodriguez in New York if he went hitless and also made some miscues in the field. The Rodriguez idea is just an idea; the reality is going to look a lot more like Jayson Nix, filling in for Derek Jeter. This is going to be weird. It’s probably not going to be crippling, but it’s most definitely going to be weird.




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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

67 Responses to “Yankees Lose Game, Yankees Lose Captain”

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  1. Jack says:

    After reading the title, I imagined Nick Swisher standing on top of his desk and reciting “O Captain! My Captain,” with various other Yankees periodically joining in. Jeter walked out saying “Carpe Diem,” and then went to voice a blue genie in a Disney movie.

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  2. tbonemacd says:

    There’s no “captain” in baseball.

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  3. Ben Hall says:

    Jon Heyman included these two thoughts in his piece.

    “Jeter, as he was carried off the field, told Yankees people he heard something, and most folks figured the Yankees’ realistic World Series hopes were simultaneously swept away.”

    “The question now becomes: Without the captain, can the Yankees play through this? Can they possibly find a way to win their 28th World Series, down 1-0 in the ALCS and without their leader and best clutch player?”

    That’s just phenomenal. Apparently the Yankees are actually a terrible team, and only the fact that they have Derek Jeter enabled them to win 95 games and beat the Orioles in the first round. How does it happen that we (as a people) let someone this bad at their job occupy a relatively high profile? I don’t get it.

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    • Stinky says:

      oh stop it. Jeter is a big part of their team. besides that, like him or hate him (obviously you are part of the latter group), it’s a dramatic twist or events and many journalists will report on it at least partly from that context.

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      • Bad Bill says:

        Of such so-called reasoning is the term “truthiness” made.

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      • Ben Hall says:

        Jeter’s a great player. That’s not the point. You completely missed the point.

        The point is that it’s ridiculous to say that a team loses its “realistic World Series hopes” and question whether a team can “possibly find a way to win [the] World Series” because of losing one player. It doesn’t matter if we’re talking about Barry Bonds for the early millennium Giants; when you only need to win 8 games, the odds are never as bad as Heyman paints them. Never mind that the Yankees are quite good without them

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      • Cidron says:

        Like the yankees or not, Jeter is the constant, the calm, the … Whatever craziness or other that the Yankees, or their players do, or whatever, there is always Jeter, calm, quiet, at the center of the Yankees organization (as players go). Is he the best? no. Is he the big bopper? no. Is he the big glove, bat, or speed guy? no. But, he is consistent. So much so, that he is easily overlooked as the spotlight moves around. And, with it, comes the Captain moniker. He knows what to do, and how to handle “it” (whatever the given “it” is at a given time)

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      • Preston says:

        I think that you have to put it into the context of how the Yankees have been playing, very poorly. Jeter is one of only a few Yankees who’s actually been hitting. So while over a long stretch the difference would be negligible in the short term a team that has struggled to score lost one of it’s hottest hitters.

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    • GMH says:

      I’m impressed that Jon Heyman actually named his source.

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    • Chris From Bothell says:

      This is going to be an unfortunate and annoying part of the whole rest of the postseason now. If the Yankees get to the World Series, they’re “doing it for Derek”. If the Tigers get to the World Series, it’s “yeah, well if Jeter wasn’t injured they probably would’ve gotten it done”. As Jeff covers in his post, Jeter’s absence is going to overshadow so many more possibly interesting storylines.

      It also puts an extra layer over other existing storylines too. I wonder how much the empty seats thing that was already getting talked about, will be magnified now. “Well, Yankee fans are staying away in droves, now that Jeter’s knocked out…”.

      And lastly, one other interesting ripple effect of all of this is the likely spectacle of seeing Ichiro lead off in the ALCS, and possibly in the World Series. For the Yankees. Wow. Baseball!

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      • joser says:

        And if they do manage to “win one for the Jeter” the rest of us can point out he must not be quite as valuable (in general, and to that team) as some people think.

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      • Tom B says:

        The “empty seats” are filled. The people are behind the seats in the restaurant watching the game.

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      • MikeS says:

        This is why I hate post season baseball and when I watch, I do it with the sound turned down. It’s never about Team A being better or playing better than Team B. It’s always about the assistant trainer’s cousin’s kid’s best friend having Lupus or some garbage like that. Isn’t it enough to watch the best in the world do amazing things? Can’t we have a simple sporting event without a Compelling Narrative (TM)? If I wanted that crap, I’d watch the Olympics.

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      • STEVE PETRO says:

        WITHOUT JETER THEY ARE DONE STICK A FORK IN THEM!

        YOU LOSE THE ONE GUY WHO CAN HIT AT (THINK BACK TO YOUR 2003 AND 2001 SERIES LOSSES- WHO WAS THE ONLY ONE DOING ANY HITTING AT ALL!) SO YOU THINK THESE BORING OVERRATED YANKEE CLUELESS PRIMA DONNAS CAN STILL WIN THE WORLD SERIES? DON’T MAKE ME LAUGH. THEY HAVE NOT HIT WITH MEN IN SCORING POSITON.ALL YEAR WHY NOW? THEY HIT A LOT OF HOME RUNS SO WHAT MAYBE IT IS BECAUSE THEY ONLY CARE ABOUT THEIR OWN STATS. I WOULD NOT WASTE MY TIME WATCHING. DO SOME MORE IMPORTANT THINGS FOR YOURSELF INSTEAD—LIKE PLANNING FOR YOUR FUTURE.

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    • waynetolleson says:

      With Brett Gardner on the shelf the whole year, A-Rod underperforming, Curtis Granderson striking out 190 times; injuries to Mariano Rivera, Michael Pineda, Andy Pettitte, etc… Derek Jeter had 216 hits, played shortstop almost every day, and scored 99 runs.

      I get so sick of people knocking Jeter. “Oh, Jeter’s overrated!” Yes. Of all the players in the history of baseball with 3304 hits, 255 HR’s, 524 2B’s, 350 SB, and 1868 runs scored, Derek Jeter is certainly the most overrated.

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    • Evan says:

      I don’t think of Jon Heyman as being bad at his job, but I think of his job as being to obtain information about impending trades and signings and passing this information on to his readers – he’s good at this. This job, however, is not really a full time position most of the year. But during many parts of the year this isn’t enough to fill a regular column, so he writes opinion and analysis – neither of which I think are particularly insightful when he’s the source.

      When his columns are fact (or rumor based) I read them, when he’s analyzing baseball or speculating I skip over those sections/columns.

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  4. BASEBALLFAN says:

    Dude how did you read that like that? lmao.

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  5. Troublebrewer says:

    Its the birth pains of a narrative.

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  6. Brandon says:

    How awesome would it be if they moved A-Rod to SS and he ended up World Series MVP? Even as a Sox fan, that would make me laugh.

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    • Jim Bouldin says:

      Not infrequently in these types of things, the replacement player does a very good job and the team in general rallies, knowing that they sort of need to. I expect that’s what we’ll see here. The Yankees have so many potential stepper-uppers that this is not unlikely at all.

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    • JimH says:

      Awesome or about as likely as being struck twice by lightening?

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    • Chris From Bothell says:

      Not as awesome as ARod moving to SS and promptly fracturing his left ankle in game 2. As a Mariner fan, that would make me laugh.

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      • Tom B says:

        If the Mariners folded as a franchise, no one would laugh because no one would care.

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      • jim says:

        don’t worry chris, someday you’ll learn that life is a little better when you’re not a vindictive ass

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      • weebly says:

        What’s wrong with a little Schadenfreude? If you’re puerile enough to support the overpaid Yankees, we don’t have to feel too bad about enjoying a little immature thrill when things don’t go perfect for your pompous prigs.

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    • joser says:

      I was thinking the same thing. The New York Post would probably have to stop its presses while it allows the cognitive dissonance to fade.

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    • waynetolleson says:

      “How awesome would it be if they moved A-Rod to SS and he ended up World Series MVP?”

      How awesome would it be if they moved David Ortiz to shortstop next year and he ended up leading the league in UZR and winning a Gold Glove?

      Sure, it would be super awesome. But it’s not going to happen. A-Rod is way heavier now, and has a surgically repaired hip. He’s not in any shape to jump-in and play playoff caliber shortstop.

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      • John Smith says:

        The image of David Ortiz running out to shortstop and taking ground balls to start an inning makes me laugh to my very soul, as does Ortiz moving to the hole and throwing a runner out on the run.

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  7. J says:

    Now they only have three potential HOFers in their lineup. They should probably just give up.

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    • Cidron says:

      A-rod, ok. Tex? hmm.. good, but I dont see him as HoF. and, your third in lineup…?? To early on Cano still, imo. But, if you include pitching rotation, CC .. cant argue against, and, my gut says no on Pettitte.. though the postseason stuff certainly helps.

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      • ThirteenOfTwo says:

        Ichiro, A-Rod, and Cano.

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      • amoc21 says:

        I’m gonna go ahead and sound like a jerk but the key word I think in J’s post was “potential”.

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      • Preston says:

        Ichiro and A-Rod are HOFers, Sabathia would have to have something go wrong for him not to be, he’s been really good, Pettitte, is a borderline case, Tex was a one time candidate but given his recent decline I doubt it (although Hall voters might start to value defense more in the future) and Cano has put together a nice HOF peak in the last couple of seasons but he’s going to have to do it a lot longer. Problem is only two of those players CC and Cano were HOF caliber players this season.

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  8. joser says:

    An actual graph on FanGraphs? What the hell is this? (And also, what exactly are the unhappy-faces scaled in? I want to know if that’s in units of burnt cookies or dead kittens)

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  9. malcolm shelley says:

    Can we please have this post with all the topic ideas covered? I mean its Sunday, what else do you have to do?

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  10. dougiejays says:

    Someone commented on Twitter that it would have been laughable just five years age to compare Raul Ibanez to ARod. You definitely one-upped that here. It’s truly a measure of how far he’s fallen that a compelling argument needs to be made for Alex Rodriguez over Jayson Nix…

    Honestly, with how poorly he’s performed since he came off the DL, he probably shouldn’t be active for this series either.

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    • Tom B says:

      It’s still laughable. 3 hits does not make a career.

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      • Cidron says:

        depends on the three hits.. Reggie Jackson had three good hits a bit ago in the post-season, and he is milking it for all he is worth. (game six, 1977 World Series)

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      • Westside guy says:

        Cidron, do you think we’d remember those 3 “hits” as well if it weren’t for the fact he hit another 560 of those “hits” during his career?

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      • Jon L. says:

        Apart from those three, Reggie had 563 regular-season homers and 15 other postseason home runs (before the expanded playoffs). He had speed when he was young, and finished his career with a higher batting average in neutral parks than Carl Yastrzemski.

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      • vivalajeter says:

        Tuffy Rhodes’ career is summed up with his 3 HRs against Gooden on Opening Day 1994. Sure, he hit a lot of dingers in Japan – but most people just know him for what he accomplished that one day.

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      • waynetolleson says:

        “It’s still laughable. 3 hits does not make a career.”

        A-Rod has three postseason hits since 2009. He had about three postseason hits between game three of the 2004 ALCS and the 2009 postseason.

        His 2009 postseason was one for the ages. But A-Rod can’t handle pressure. If everything’s clicking and it’s just baseball, he’s fine. But once you’re in his head, A-Rod’s toast.

        And now, he’s old and beat-up.

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  11. GeneHackman says:

    Stop calling Jon Heyman a journalist

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  12. Baltar says:

    Counting Alex Rodriguez as a bench player and therefore available for shortstop is misleading at best. Implications for someone else playing in Rodriguez’s place need to be considered, whether good or bad.
    Also, why compare Jeter to a “replacement” player when you have the actual players who might replace him to compare to.
    A poor analysis.

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  13. Tom B says:

    “Ichiro and the home-run porch”

    Did you actually see the home run? I guess not because he crushed it. That ball goes out of a lot of parks. It goes out of Boston twice.

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      • Charles In Charge says:

        It was a well struck ball, a deep line drive, its not your typical stadium special pop up, but yea, its only a homer in a few parks

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      • Jon L. says:

        Yeah, but Ichiro would’ve hit it higher if he hadn’t been gunning for the short porch in Yankee Stadium.

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      • Avery says:

        Perhaps more importantly in this situation, it would have been out at Comerica. And for comparison, out at Safeco, too.

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      • ElToroStrikesAgain says:

        Its true Ichiro should man up and not take advantage of the short porch, he should’ve said no let’s have a do-over that was a cheapie. Oh wait the Tigers are batting in the same stadium? How many singles and doubles drop in in other parks because the gaps are so huge and there’s tons of extra ground to cover? So much bitching about the short porch every single October I swear.

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    • Preston says:

      Yankee Stadium is not an extreme ballpark, it has one extreme feature. Nobody gets all agitatedd about any of the other park factors in places that are way more run supportive/suppressive environments. This is just another way for angry Yankee haters to vent.

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  14. Zigs says:

    Those three games, mentioned at the end of the article, were the difference between home field advantage throughout the American league playoffs and playing in some ridiculous play in game.

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  15. JG says:

    The question is, are the networks actually going to mention anything at all about the mysterious and unknown team that is currently ahead in the series between all of the Jeter mournfulness and Ibanez jock-riding?

    My gut says mute.

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    • ElToroStrikesAgain says:

      Ibanez has been having an all-time clutch post season, why would they ignore that? Future HOF/icon/Yankee captain lost for year? Who cares!!? Miguel Cabrera hasn’t had his ass kissed? Verlander? Come on. The obvious story of this series is the epic choking happening in the Yankee batting order. Cano, ARod, Granderson, Martin & Swisher have been historically bad.

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      • Colin says:

        You lost all credibility with that last sentence.

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      • Shawn says:

        @Colin

        Actually Cano just set the single post reason hitless record… so the statement is pretty spot on if you throw in that ARod, Swisher and Granderson have struck out about 50% of their atbats and have maybe 2-3 hits between them all post season.

        The Tigers have gotten plenty of coverage. The Miguel Cabrera fanclub circle jerk over the triple crown has at this point caused most people outside of Detroit to just not give a crap.

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  16. MikeS says:

    That’s the problem with being stuck with a $200,000,000 payroll. If one guy goes down, you’re up the creek.

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    • Jason H. says:

      If one of the two players in your $200,000,000 lineup who is actually getting hits goes down, you probably are up the creek…. …nobody would be pretending this is hopeless for the Yankees if Cano and Swisher and Granderson and Arod were even performing a bit worse than what is expected of them. Instead those guys are all performing no better than what I, myself, could have provided to the Yankees.

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  17. Duke says:

    The valuation of defense needs to be greater in a low scoring environment, which the Yankee playoff games certainly have been. In Game 2, one bobble of a double play relay would have cost the game, if the umpires were competent. Joe Girardi recognizes this, which is why he’s going with Nix.

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    • ElToroStrikesAgain says:

      Agreed. To wit, if Gardner is able to reasonably perform at the plate, I feel he should man left with Ichiro in right at this point.

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    • Jason H. says:

      …in low scoring games, scoring runs is important too. The equation remains the same, no matter the “run scoring environment”.

      ….if I were the manager I would take offense over defense in a single game. A player will usually get at least four chances to effect a game with his bat. On the other hand, often times players dont get any chances to make an impact with their glove (beyond routine plays that any other player would also have made). I would take the gamble that few difficult plays would be required. ….further unmade plays by shortstops only ever become singles, which have a low run expectancy.

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  18. WY says:

    If winning without your captain were such a Herculean task, then most other teams would never be able to win, since most (all?) other teams don’t even have captains.

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