Yankees Put Faith in Narrative, Narrative Flips Yankees the Bird
After Game 3 Tuesday night, the Yankees find themselves behind three games to zero games in the ALCS, one game away from there being no games anymore. What a 3-0 series suggests is domination, and that hasn’t been the case — all three games have been close, with the Tigers just squeaking by. Yet the Yankees have without question been outplayed, and now they can’t lose again. It’s not a surprise they wound up here, since they were behind two games to none before facing Justin Verlander, but one doesn’t typically associate the Yankees with desperation, and this situation is desperate.
What’s interesting is that, while the Yankees faced long odds going up against Verlander on Tuesday, one could argue that plenty of things broke in their favor. It was a cold night, with the wind blowing in, and that helped to even the playing field, since the Verlander run environment couldn’t be reduced by as much as the Yankees pitchers’ run environment. The Yankees pitchers themselves allowed just two runs in eight innings, giving the offense a real chance. Verlander didn’t look like his overpowering self, single run and three hits aside; he tied a season-low for strikeouts with three, and on a handful or two of occasions Verlander left a hittable pitch over the plate that the Yankees didn’t drill. And then at the very end, the Yankees made their final out with the tying run on second and the go-ahead run on first.
About that at-bat. You knew this was going to be about that at-bat. It was the highest-leverage at-bat of the game, and prior to the top of the ninth, new storylines hadn’t really emerged. The Yankees were having trouble with offense, but the Yankees have been having trouble with offense all playoffs. The Yankees’ bullpen did a pretty good job after Phil Hughes had to leave early. There was a neat double play off the bat of Miguel Cabrera that kept the game within reach. For a while, this was a close playoff game, but I wouldn’t say it was an intense playoff game. We’ve seen more intense playoff games over the past week and a half.
But that at-bat, that final at-bat. Something that was allowed to happen was Phil Coke pitching to Raul Ibanez in a one-run game with two on and two out. Available on the Yankees’ bench was Alex Rodriguez, and with planning, available on the Yankees’ bench would’ve been Nick Swisher. Available in the Tigers’ bullpen was Joaquin Benoit. Coke had already been on the mound, and Ibanez had already been in the game. No changes were made, and Coke ultimately put Ibanez away with a slider.
Girardi later explained that he didn’t pinch-hit with Rodriguez because Jim Leyland would’ve countered with Benoit. He felt better about lefty-on-lefty. Swisher was swinging in the on-deck circle for Russell Martin, but he didn’t have to be there. It seems to me this at-bat should’ve been Swisher vs. Benoit. It seems strongly to me this at-bat should’ve been Swisher vs. Benoit.
This is where we have no choice but to issue all the caveats. One, Joe Girardi was in the position of greater knowledge. Two, one must account for the pinch-hitting penalty whenever talking about something like this. Three, any differences are going to be pretty small — Ibanez vs. Coke was not an automatic out, and Swisher vs. Benoit wouldn’t have been an automatic hit. It’s a matter of percentages. But to me, a manager has two responsibilities: he should be a good leader of men, and he should be able to identify and seize opportunities to increase his team’s odds of winning a game. By leaving Ibanez in to face Coke, Girardi left some percentage points on the table when the Yankees needed a base hit the most.
We don’t even have to get that complicated to talk about this. Phil Coke, for his career, has allowed a .276 wOBA to lefties over several hundred plate appearances. Raul Ibanez, since 2002, has posted a .320 wOBA against lefties, and a .350 wOBA overall. Ibanez isn’t a .350 wOBA hitter anymore — he’s more like a .320 wOBA hitter — meaning you’d probably expect him to post a wOBA in the .290-.300 neighborhood against lefties.
Nick Swisher is a switch-hitter, and Joaquin Benoit is a righty. Benoit’s allowed a career .300 wOBA to lefties, although since he moved permanently to the bullpen it’s been a good deal lower than that. Swisher owns a career .353 wOBA against righties, and he was as good a hitter in 2012 as he’s ever been. As a pinch-hitter, you’d subtract from Swisher’s projection, but he’d still come away looking better than Ibanez. It feels silly to run all this math around one single plate appearance, but everything’s about probability and it really seems like Swisher would’ve given the Yankees the best chance.
Naturally, there are complicating factors. Nobody could forget about Ibanez’s recent late-inning heroics. Surely, that played some role in Girardi’s decision-making, and surely, had Ibanez been removed and had the pinch-hitter made an out, the media wouldn’t be able to shut up about it. Swisher also hasn’t been hitting these playoffs, and his overall October track record is pretty poor over nearly 200 plate appearances. That’s a consideration — Swisher’s been one of many Yankees not taking good swings.
But that’s putting too much weight on recent events. And if you insist on putting too much weight on recent events, what of Benoit’s ten second-half home runs allowed? What of his struggles against Oakland in the ALDS, and what of his appearance against the Yankees in Game 1, where he allowed a long fly out and a long double? In theory, Ibanez was a hot bat and Swisher was a cold bat, but in theory, Coke was a hot pitcher and Benoit was a cold pitcher. With Benoit and Swisher, the Yankees could’ve had the platoon advantage with the tying run in scoring position.
I’m going to be perfectly honest with you: after looking at all of the numbers, and after considering how good Benoit has been against left-handed hitters in the past, Girardi’s decision to stick with Ibanez doesn’t seem absolutely, completely unforgivable. I expected it to, and my impression at the time as the game was going on was that Girardi had really screwed up. It’s closer than I thought. Benoit’s changeup is outstanding, and the pinch-hitter penalty is significant.
But even if the probability difference was small, seems to me the probability difference still existed, and seems to me the Yankees would’ve been better off going with Swisher instead of sticking with the recent hero. If you replace Ibanez with another guy, and the other guy makes the final out, you’re going to catch a lot of crap for it. That’s just the way that sports work. But you can’t manage according to what people are going to think — you have to manage according to what’s right and wrong, and if you replace Ibanez with another guy, and the other guy comes through, well, that was the whole idea. Not every managerial decision will work out, but the best managers will have more decisions work out than the others.
There were plenty of opportunities Tuesday night of which the Yankees failed to take advantage. Among them was the opportunity presented by the final at-bat of the game, and as a consequence of all of that, the Yankees now need to win four games in a row. Thankfully for them, CC Sabathia could start two of those games. Unthankfully for them, the Tigers are good. Playoff situations don’t get much worse than this one.
Alternate universe headline: Girardi makes change based on in depth statistical analysis; in depth statistical analysis flips him the bird.
The Yankees are Destiny’s Team, while the Tigers are destined to be lunchmeat.
New York’s got this one.
I thought Schilling had made it clear that Destiny dances at a local strip club and doesn’t have anything to do with the Yankees prospects of winning a game or series.
yeah but schilling is an asshole.
i hate the yankees as much as the next dude, but this comment is awesome. do not understand the thumbs down.
Ibanez has a homer against Coke in the world series and is hot as can be, plus Coke has thrown a lot of pitches in the first two games, so I can certainly see Girardi sticking with him.
“Ibanez has a homer against Coke in the World Series.” I wouldn’t look at one at-bat in the 2009 World Series to make the decision.
Swisher is better against right handers than left handers. Doesn’t Leyland just leave Coke in to face Swisher if he pinch hits?
No.
You bring in Arod to face Coke. Leyland then brings in Benoit and the Yankees bring in Swisher to face him instead of Arod.
Not sure if you caught it on TV, but Swisher was in the on deck circle to pinch hit for Russell Martin who hurt his thumb and I assume Girardi did not want him swinging the bat.
that’s what I would’ve expected. I think it was Coke’s game there.
and considering how ice cold Swisher has been and hot heroically hot Ibanez has been, is it even worth discussing lifting RI for NS in that spot? Was never going to happen.
Ibanez versus Coke in that situation isn’t a bad matchup for the Yanks, especially as the pinch-hitting penalty is huge (though of course variable). The other point to bear in mind is that the most likely positive outcomes of the Ibanez at-bat for NY (single or walk) would have made it Swisher for the win.
but don’t we have a fairly substantial block of information, indicating Ibanez vs lefties is a pretty bad match up?…
Well the fact is that Ibanez put together a good AB. He worked a full count, Coke had struggled throwing his slider for strikes and Ibanez didn’t think there was a chance in hell he was throwing anything but a fastball. He cheated and he lost. Coke threw his best slider of the night, a convincing strike that fell just out of the zone. If he gone with the fastball Ibanez would have put it in the seats. If he’d thrown his slider as poorly as he previously had Ibanez wouldn’t have swung and worked the bases loaded. I’m fine with the second guessing, but it’s not like Ibanez looked over matched against the lefty, he just got beat on one really risky and well executed pitch.
personally, i dont think the decision was that bad either. arod is a non option, as he had no chance off benoit and thats easily the worst choice of the 3. swisher vs benoit is more interesting… i probably slightly favor that to ibanez v coke, but its close.
however, how can you say that 1) ibanez cheated fastball and that 2) if it wasnt a good slider, ibanez wouldnt have swung…?
you either dont know what cheating fastball means, or you believe ibanez is a superhero.
His other sliders had been so obviously outside the zone that you could recognize it early enough, basically out of his hand, to hold up even when he was cheating.
While watching I assumed Ichiro would have been pinch hit for when Coke was first brought into the game. Because it was Coke’s first batter, Leyland would have been stuck with him. Why not have Arod vs. Coke with Teix and Cano coming up?
This was a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation. Considering the way A-Rod and Swisher are hitting this postseason, he’d get ripped twice as badly for failing to go with the hot hand and falling back on his black binder.
It’s effectively the complete opposite of the early season game against the Rays where he opted to walk Sean Rodriguez to get to Carlos Pena for the platoon advantage only to watch his pitcher give up a grand slam. Girardi got ripped to shreds for that one too.
Frankly, I dislike Girardi and think he’s overrated as a manager, but I can’t say he made an outright bad decision here. He was in an unenviable position of having three terrible options. In that situation, you can either tinker for the sake of tinkering or do damage control. For as much complaining as those of us among the more analysis inclined will do, we are by far the vocal minority. Baseball is a spectator sport and the spectators would’ve absolutely revolted had Girardi pinch hit one of his coldest hitters for one of his hottest, regardless of the statistical likelihood of it improving their chances. From my angle, the ever so slight improvement to their odds just isn’t worth the potential backlash of it not working out perfectly.
The black binder approach is, for lack of a better word, the “correct” approach. Obviously it doesn’t guarantee success, but the manager doesn’t do the hitting. The move that makes victory more likely the the one that needs to be made. If Girardi made what he knew to be the “incorrect” move because he knew that it would get him less flak if it failed (which is was far more likely than success), then he’s incompetent.
Not to make too much of it, but he’d also be violating what could be said to be his duty as a manager by making moves in his own interest rather than that of the team, and if that’s the case then he should be fired too.
Yankees suck. : )
clever…
Putting Ibanez and Coke in the same room is never a good idea.
http://tinyurl.com/dxm2lp2
Did someone say coke?
I thought the narrative was going to be:
Pitching wins championships.
The need for, at least, SOME offense is taken as a given. Someone should’ve told the Yankees that.
A very good analysis, Jeff. I’m glad you wrote this kind of post.
I think the more significant move was Leyland sticking with Coke despite allowing back-to-back singles. At least on twitter, I saw a ton of Tigers fans conclude (incorrectly) that Coke “didn’t have it” and demand that Leyland pull Coke. Leyland knew that Girardi was basically forced into leaving Ibanez in the game no matter what, thanks to the clutch playoff heroics narrative. Thus, Leyland didn’t panic from the two singles, trusted Coke’s matchup advantage, and he made the right call.
I am just curious, but is it a given that Coke would have come out if Swisher had pinched hit? Swisher is worse from the R side.
Almost certain
why?
I don’t think so.
yeah, just feels like a flimsy premise to the piece. I think it was Coke’s game to lose there.
i thought the narrative was going to be that the yankees overcame the same situation in the 96 WS.
It’s true the scores have been close, but the games have been less so. The Yankees have scored zero runs before (or after) the ninth inning in the entire series. They are one Jose Valverde inning and an Eduardo Nunez homer away from being shut out in three consecutive games. Last night, the score was only close because the Tigers repeatedly failed to convert their opportunities.
Of course this could all change, starting tonight. The Yankees scored a ton in the regular season, so they’re obviously capable of it. As an Orioles fan, however, I’m beginning to think that maybe it wasn’t that our pitching was good in the ALDS, but rather that the Yankees simply can’t hit right now.
hindsight is 20/20
It seems to me that narrative would have required pinch-hitting Rodriguez, because basically the only chance of the Yankees winning the series at that point is if Arod suddenly starts hitting like the best player in the game again.