Yu Darvish Set To Become A Ranger
One month ago, the Rangers were awarded the rights to negotiate with Yu Darvish for a posting fee of $51.7 million. Surely, the announcements of the details of the contract will not come until right at the 5:00 PM Eastern Time deadline, but all indications as of now point to the Rangers reaching a six-year deal with the Japanese phenom (as reported by CBS’s Jon Heyman).
Although there are occasions where negotiations break down between Japanese imports and their American clubs — Hisashi Iwakuma with Oakland last year, for example — the big names have always agreed to a contract by the one-month deadline. For both the Rangers and for Darvish, there was simply too much at stake not to reach a middle ground.
For Darvish, the motivation is simple: money. Although he could go back to Japan and return as a free agent in another year, the opportunity to sign with the Rangers represents a chance to secure his finances for the rest of his life at age 25. Darvish was coming off a roughly $6.5 million salary in Japan and faced three more years of arbitration before being eligible for free agency. With a six-year contract, he sets himself up for the chance at a second big MLB contract at age 31, which should allow him to parlay the performance of his prime years (should he be as successful as his potential suggests) into another large payday. The intangible benefits of enjoying a career in the highest-level baseball league in the world surely play into the decision making as well.
For the Rangers, Darvish now represents their only real chance at a significant upgrade of the pitching staff. The only free agent starting pitcher of note on the market is Roy Oswalt, and between his age and injury history, his value hardly holds a candle to Darvish’s. Throw in the posting fee and, as Baseball Prospectus’s Jason Parks tweeted, the costs Nolan Ryan and the Rangers have poured into the process of scouting — both in money and other resources, like time and manpower — and the team has an equally high incentive to reach a middle ground.
Although details of this supposed contract likely will not be available until some time after the deadline passes, it would be somewhat surprising if Darvish receives an average annual payment of fewer than eight figures. Daisuke Matsuzaka received a six-year, $52 million contract in 2007 after coming over for a $51.1 million posting fee. With inflation, Darvish has a chance to rake in $72 million ($12 million per season) or more over the same time frame.
If Darvish lives up to his expectations and his projections — like ZiPS, which forecasts five seasons of sub-3.75 ERAs, 150+ strikeouts, and 4+ WAR — the investment would be a quality one for Texas. Even his middle-ground projections place him in the vicinity of excellent young pitchers like Jordan Zimmermann and Yovani Gallardo — if not a True Ace, very close to that level.
For as much as we at FanGraphs can emphasize the little deals, it is elite talent which creates winners in this league over the long term. The Rangers earned a chance to add another piece in Yu Darvish to one of the league’s biggest stockpiles of great players, and barring a last-minute breakdown, it looks like they will capitalize on it and take the next step towards solidifying their status as perennial World Series contenders.
And, best of all, now we can finally focus on watching one of the world’s most intriguing pitchers actually pitch in Major League Baseball.
Darvish wouldn’t be a free agent until after 2013. If he went back to Japan, he’d have to be posted again at the end of this year if he wanted to pitch in the U.S. in 2013.
I think he meant a free agent in Japan. I believe theirs is 9 service years.
I guess I’m in the minority, but I still think this whole thing is weird.
The Rangers are bumping Alexi Ogando from the rotation to make room for Darvish. At best, that’s a +2 win upgrade in the rotation, and then maybe you get another +0.5 win from having Ogando move back to the bullpen and give the team more depth down there. Even if you’re a big Darvish fan, this move looks like a +3 upgrade at most.
Meanwhile, the Rangers have Mitch Moreland at first base, a line-up that is entirely too right-handed, and Prince Fielder has been sitting around hoping that they make him an offer. Replacing Moreland with Fielder is clearly a larger upgrade than replacing Ogando with Darvish, especially when you factor in line-up balance and the diminished value of having five quality starters in the playoffs.
Maybe they’ll sign Fielder anyway. But if they’re choosing Darvish over Fielder, I just think this is odd.
that’s if you think Ogando repeats his 2011 performance. He didn’t get called up until he was 26 and had a great year last year. I don’t think Ogando is a sure thing to be as good once he gets more exposed. Keeping Ogando in the pen probably preserves his value because he’s seen less and can pitch max effort. Darvish hasn’t been seen and unquestionably has better stuff.
Ogando was worth +3.6 WAR in 169 innings last year. My +2 WAR assessment includes a huge amount of regression. If Ogando could repeat his 2011 performance, then Darvish would be no upgrade at all.
Ogando was only that old before being called up because of legal issues, if my memory serves correct he was allegedly involved in some kind of human trafficking.
Josh,
From what I remember from an ESPN Magazine article last year, Ogando got married to some woman so they could sort of ‘smuggle’ her into the US that way so she could be involved in something illegal. I forget a lot of details as to how it happened, but he was pretty much an innocent victim. This kept him from getting a visa in the US for a few years.
Ogando could be traded. Several teams might see him as an upgrade.
Ogando lied and knowingly took part in an illegal con job in order to make money. Now that he’s finished paying the legal price for that, I don’t propose he be punished further. But “innocent victim”????? For goodness’ gracious’ sake.
Clearly, this has more to do with lust than brains. The Rangers identified Darvish early and decided they had to have him and said screw it to anything else. I’m not saying that’s necessarily right or wrong, but as a fan of the game I’m just thankful we get to see what Darvish can do in MLB. If they didn’t go after Darvish, they probably could have targeted both Oswalt and Fielder and come away with a better team on paper than they will be with Darvish. Of course, if they go out and get Fielder anyways then this all becomes water under the bridge.
I sometimes wonder if Nolan Ryan sees a lot of himself in Darvish. I think he’d like to be out there pitching 250 innings for Texas every year if he could. Since he can’t, he’ll take the closest Persian-Japanese analog.
Kinda what I said and then you have Hamilton wanting too much after 2012. However Rangers officials(sources) say that both Hamilton past 2012 and fielder may still be in play. i figure to just think that anything is still possible…
Evan_P_Grant Evan Grant
As for Prince, Rangers still interested: Up to Boras/Prince to get creative. Agent has lost any leverage with Texas.
I’m not intimately familiar with the Rangers rotation, but my impression was always that they preferred going after Darvish to resigning Wilson. I guess they have the depth to let Wilson walk, without replacing him…?
I also tend to see shades of Scott Boras in so many moves this offseason, including this one. The Cubs and Mariners, both linked to Fielder, pursued guys that ostensibly filled that need (at 1B and DH respectively). The Sox and Phillies both chose to pursue their own bullpen upgrades rather than negotiate with Boras over Madson (again, to whom both teams were linked). Finally you have the Rangers signing what could be a Fielder substitute. It’s pure supposition, of course, but I suspect Fielder’s pricetag is absurdly high and/or clubs could get real value out of increased leverage with the super agent and his super free agent. At the very least, I’m sure a couple of those clubs were scared enough by Boras’ asking price to go for the surer thing.
Perhaps they’re grabbing Darvish and Fielder in order to peel off a couple of subsequently unnecessary pieces to stock up their farm?
I don’t know what the Rangers’ farm system looks like, but if it has holes, perhaps they’re trying to restock before they get into all the contract extensions that they need to consider next couple seasons with the ML club.
rangers farm is very good, certainly top 10
Yea, the farm is pretty good. Martin Perez is a top pitcher and Jurickson Profar is probably the top SS (despite MLB.com’s analysis) and a top 5 overall type of player. I kinda do see Profar and/or Andrus as expendable in the near future because you can trade them for a piece. It’d be awesome if the Bravos could get one of them. Too bad the Rangers have a stacked team without any glaring weaknesses.
The Dallas papers are saying 6 years, $60MM. Guess or peak, who knows.
How many innings does the 6th best starter on a team typically pitch? Last year the Rangers didn’t have any major injuries in their rotation, but the Phillies, for example, needed a combined 36 starts from Worley and Kendrick while the Red Sox needed 25 from Miller, Bedard, Aceves, and Weiland plus another 23 from Wakefield. Injuries happen in starting rotations. At minimal 10 starts (~60-70 innings) for Ogando would be a safe bet in addition to another 40 or 50 relief innings. Hitting 130 to 150 innings isn’t out of the question.
Having a swing rotation guy in your pen makes sense.
While the scenario you lay out is possible, there are some questions to your assumptions:
(1) You assume that Moreland is a weak link. If he performs as he did last season, as a whole, you are correct. But Moreland played much of last season with a wrist bad enough to require off-season surgery. Before that injury materialized, Moreland raked in April and May, with wRC+ of 142 and 133, showing good patience at the plate along with power. Yes, it was a small sample size with not much predictive value by itself. But combined with his minor league numbers and scouting reports, those two months suggest to me that it was the last four months when Moreland struggled with his wrist that was more the anomaly. Of course Fielder represents an improvement, but I don’t think Moreland is nearly as weak as some seem to believe.
(2) As for Ogando and Darvish, I think we need to consider not just next year but the next six years. Ogando has not shown himself yet to be able to be able to shoulder a full major league load of innings year-after-year. While Darvish has question marks too with the change in days of rest and climate, his track record suggests he is more likely able to throw 200 innings a year without being hurt or losing effectiveness.
(3) You compare the signing of Darvish and Fielder without noting that Fielder is seeking more years and more annual salary. Their difference in cost might affect the Ranger’s ability to re-sign their current nucleus, players such as Hamilton and Kinsler. I don’t fault you for that — you can only include so much in any one piece. But there are opportunity costs to be considered beyond the signing of Darvish or Fielder.
The Rangers decided to replace CJ Wilson with Darvish…at least from a money standpoint. Ogando will be replaced by Feliz.
The question should be, will Darvish be better over the next six years than Wilson would have been? I like the value of Darvish in that regard and I think the team was a bit discouraged with Wilson’s recent playoff performances.
For me, the picture hinges on Feliz’s development as a starter. As good as Ogando is, there is some question as to his durability as an innings-eating starter. Though there is perhaps more uncertainty with Feliz in that role, I think the Rangers bullpen is solidified with Ogando back in the pen setting up games with Adams while letting Nathan assume the closer role.
So, the Darvish signing adds depth and insurance for a young staff, and it gives the Rangers the potential of a true “ace,” which is a ceiling that’s perhaps beyond Darvish’s new teammates.
Fielder is a different issue and I believe the Rangers will still respond on that area, chiefly to counter the Pujols signing by the Angels and to ultimately replace Hamilton as their lefty power bat. Unless he comes down for his expectations, I think Hamilton will find a new team beyond 2012.
don’t think it makes sense to compare darvish & ogando by straight up WAR upgrade just because darvish is bumping ogando from the rotation. they’re not taking ogando out back and shooting him. now they have both. as soon as somebody gets hurt or starts pitching like a jerk, they can put ogando back in. (or maybe if they can’t, but if his return to the pen is somehow Written In Ink and he can never come back, you have to assume they aren’t optimistic about him maintaining that kind of starter production long term anyway, darvish or no darvish.)
also playoffs, championships, starting pitching, etc. i think that’s the main reasoning. i mean, what’s actually more likely: colby lewis and matt harrison turning into pumpkins while neftali feliz struggles with the transition to starting, or the rangers having difficulty pushing runs across without prince?
I’m with you, Dave. The Rangers have had a spot at 1B open for a while now. Moreland is fine, but on a team trying to compete at a high level it seems a waste to have one of your two ‘only has to hit’ spots in the lineup dedicated to a replacement level bat. Since they traded Smoak away the Rangers have had no true heir apparent to fill that spot and Fielder seems like a perfect fit. They likely have the money to spend, though maybe they are more interested in saving it for Hamilton – but then the question remainds, why Darvish?
Maybe move Hamilton to first to lower his injury risk, sign an outfielder like Bourne or Upton next year?
You beat me to it.
Rather than sign Field to play 1B, then DH.
Why not resign Hammy and move him to 1B?
Sure he loses value from defense moving from CF to 1B. He’s a plus fielding CF, but he’s also averaged ~128 GP/y over the last 3 seasons.
A decent CF is going to cost less than a good hitting 1B.
Not sure what it would take to get Andrew McCutchen, but I’d rather do that, move Hamilton to 1B .. then sign Fielder.
I think that goes without saying.
The Rangers seem to have a surplus of young flamethrowers at the moment and that’s likely what PIT is looking for.
Who do the Rangers have that’s worth McCutchen? Why wouldn’t the Pirates sign him long term to a huge deal?
I’d offer something like Ogando and Feliz and if it requires a lesser position prospect, so be it.
Why wouldn’t PIT sign AMcC to a long deal? [1] He probably doesn’t want to sign a long term deal with them, and [2] if they can get 2-3 players/prospects (under team control for 3+) years they could improve their team overall, [3] Charlie Morton was their most valuable pitcher in 2011.
PIT probably isn;t going to really compete until they better pitching.
It wouldn’t be fun to trade AMcC, but I think PIT is foolish if they think AMcC is going to sign a long-term extension with them.
Having him with 3 more years of team control is highly attractive to, well, just about everyone.
If SEA can get Montero for ONE 3-4 WAR SP with lots of team control years, then PIT should be able to get a package for AMcC … such as 2 (maybe more) 3+ WAR team-controlled pitchers from TEX.
I think TEX should trade Feliz as a SP before he shows the rest of the teams that he’s not going to be all that more valuable as a SP. If they’re going to use him as a reliever, well …they can find someone with better K/9 and BB/9 rates.
I don;t know if PIT would even trade AMcC for Feliz, Ogando, etc. But, McC signing long term in PIT seems very far-fetched to me.
PIT has a scary collection of minor pitching stars coming up in their system… baring some unfortunate events, they may have THE most exciting rotation in 2014
Trade McCutchen to the Braves for a trio of their young pitchers. The Braves need more offense, bad, and they need another right-handed bat. What about after Chipper retires? Their offense will suffer even more. McCutchen, Bourn, and Heyward would be the best defensive outfield in baseball. Pittsburgh would get the pitching that they need.
Admittedly, I’m just dreaming here as a Braves fan, but they are not helping themselves by having 7 or 8 starting pitchers on the team. (sorry to make this about the Braves)
… and the Royals will be defending their World Series title.
I can recall similar sentiments being said about the Mets trio of can’t miss SP prospects and the A’s collection of “aces”.
I always hope the prospects pan out as they “should”, but they often don’t.
Atlanta shouldn’t trade their trio of young guys. How about this, Jurickson Profar to the Pirates for McCutchen straight up? Profar is (maybe) a 5 tool guy at SS, will be cheaper than Cutch, maybe throw in another pitcher if Martin Perez is ready to come up. Or a 3 team deal, Profar to Atlanta, McCutchen to Texas, Minor and Jurrjens to Pittsburgh. Throw in a few low level guys to fill in the expectations.
Maybe throw in Matt Lipka or someone to Pittsburgh since they wouldn’t likely trade a position player for more pitching, although you can never have too much pitching.
Is it a fact that 1B get injured less than CF?
I don’t know, but this sounds like one of those “common sense” things that is probably wrong.
Also Moreland hand a hand injury around August and was pretty good as a platoon player up till that point. He was hitting .280 16 Hrs and aroung a .850 OPS up to that point. Progression is still possible…
My brain can’t handle a Prince Fielder in Texas.
Edwin Jackson thinks he’s a starting pitcher of note, Jack.
I really can’t seem to get my head around paying $124 / 6, one of the largest pitching contracts ever, for a player with no MLB experience. The luxury tax level is set at $178 million next year, so it’s not like the Rangers seem to save anything by paying part as a posting fee. It actually makes Strasburg’s request for $50 million as a draft pick seem quite reasonable.
Although personally I am rooting for the Rangers to seal the deal, as I don’t appreciate having to see Bush sitting smirking in the owner’s box when I’m trying to enjoy the World Series.
lol seeing Nolan Ryan high five Bush kinda made me lose respect for Ryan. I imagined them saying “YAY WHITE PEOPLE” or something else equally WASPy.
I shudder when I see him giving high fives to them. However, I do think they are discrete enough to not say “yay white people” though maybe they feel more emboldened in Texas.
Contrary to popular belief Bush is a human being and bot Satan or a member of the 4 horsemen…
Wow. A human being and a bot Satan. That he is more of a bicyclist than a horseman is fairly well documented.
As a bleeding-heart liberal, I’ll surprisingly agree with you. Bush was a horseshit president but he’s not evil or a terrible person.
what kind of person would fornicate with a robotic Satan to produce a half-human half-bot Satan offspring?
Don’t people think of the kids in these scenarios?
Bush isn’t evil, he’s just a bad president. He’s the type of guy who’d be fun as your uncle or that crazy guy at the bar, but not as president.
If you ever watched the movie “W” it seems to indicate Bush’s first love was baseball and he would’ve been happier staying with the Rangers than doing anything else, to Include politics.
Hey Jack, we’re having a discussion over at Brew Crew Ball regarding this comment in your article:
You seem to be saying Yovani Gallardo is not a true ace. Some folks don’t agree and say that’s a product of “internet baseball [being] a hivemind where people don’t actually go by stats but by perceptions.”
What say you?
He isn’t an ace. He’s close, but not there. 3 WAR seasons don’t get you deemed an ace in my book. Not when the top pitchers in baseball are routinely 2x that value. 2010 was close but I need to see a repeat performance of that production level over 200 innings before I’m willing to call him an Ace. Ace-potential, certainly. And with his yearly decrease in walks he may very well hit that ace level in 2012.
Quit using ‘facts’!
But you just asked him TO use facts. You implied that Gallardo really is an ace but internet baseball “perceives” him to not be one. He gave you the stats/facts about why he isn’t an ace (yet).
If they signed Prince Fielder instead of Yu Darvish though they would be pretty much showing that they are going to move forward as Fielder as the centerpiece and no longer Hamilton. They would most likely not resign Hamilton, which isn’t much of an upgrade. Hamilton has 20.2 WAR over 5 seasons and Fielder has 19.6 WAR over 7 seasons. Yes Hamilton may be more injury prone, but maybe a move to first base, as previously mentioned, may be a help.
Why can’t they have Hamilton and Fielder? How does Fielder steal the spotlight any more than Darvish will?
Well at this point I would be hapy to have Fielder as far as long term deals go and ian Kinsler is the one MUST have extension…
Is there evidence that players that switch to first lower their injury risk? I just don´t get it
@salo- you really don’t see how it might be less physically demanding to play first base than center field? really?
Who cares about any “spotlight”? Fielder/Boras want 3 times more money than Darvish, for a glorified DH.
When contemplating 6-year contracts, temporary needs/gluts are less significant. And for probably 28-of-30 teams this coming season, 6 starting pitchers will be a necessity rather than a ‘glut’. See ‘Red Sox, 2011′ for the best illustration of that.
Outfield is harder on the legs. Infield is harder on the back. And switching positions is much riskier injury-wise than staying at the familiar one.
So long as a man can field center, switching him to first base is a horrible waste of resources. And if you’re especially concerned about injuries, certainly in the short run you’re probably better off switching him to right or left, rather than switching altogether from outfield to infield.
Oops. With posting fee included, only 40 million more rather than 90 million more. My bad. Still, alot more ‘more’, tho’.
@jim. I, for one, don’t “see” that injury risk is less at 1B and CF. This is an assertion that requires proof. Ridiculing a commenter who asks for a proof of a suspicious assumption is as stupid and obnoxious as you can get.
On ESPN it’s 6/$60mil.
With $10MM in bonuses. No idea if they are guaranteed or performance based.
there are plenty of reasons to pick darvish over fielder, IMO. I’m gonna assume Darvish is going to be worth his contract and be a very good pitcher just for arguements sake. the rangers probably felt an ace was more important in the playoffs than yet another bat. also, Moreland is pretty good, despite what you guys are mostly saying. till he got hurt, he was hitting well and with regular AB’s, he’d very likely be a .280-25 HR guy. also, darvish is cheaper than fielder
Mitch Moreland’s career stats …
685 PA – 25 HR – .286 BA
You know what that’s been worth?
1.1 WAR.
.327 wOBA, below average hitter at 1B. That’s not valuable in comparison to other options. It’s Adam laRoche (only not as good as LaRoche).
Should we project Fielder’s batting numbers in TEX?
fielders numbers wouldn’t change all that much in texas. maybe an extra HR or 2, but thats it.
and alot of that time for Moreland was when he was hurt. if healthy this year (assuming regular AB’s) I feel he’d definitely be worth about 2.5 WAR at the very least
going from milwaukee, with a 103 multi-year batting factor, to texas’s 111 will only get prince 2 more home runs? like, 2 home/runs per week maybe
Four months swinging a bat with one healthy risk can do a job on 685 plate appearances.
But let’s compare Moreland’s first 685 PA, bad wrist and all, with Fielder’s first 710 PA:
Moreland 25 HR .286 1.1 WAR
Fielder 30 HR .275 BA 1.4 WAR
Fielder has averaged less than 4 WAR a season over his career and the 8-10-year contract he was seeking would take him to age 36 or 38. . A healthy Moreland has a floor of about 2 WAR. The gap may not be as substantial as some seem to think.
Using your numbers, going from a 103 to a 111 park factor is an increase of ~8%. Fielder had 38 HRs last year; an 8% increase would net him 3 more HRs. Even if you went with his career high of 50 HRs, the boost would be just 4 more. That’s less than one extra HR per month, and nothing close to one or more extra per week.
However, I trust StatCorner’s park factors more, and they show there’s actually little difference for LHB hitting home runs in the two parks: actually help your argument. Their pfs for HRs hit by LHB are 118 for Milwaukee and 119 for Texas. (The big difference would be for a RHB, where the pf is 103 in Milwaukee and 114 in Texas)
Moreland’s career batting average isn’t .286. Your point stands, though.
Wow, interesting about the HR PF in Milwaukee. I had no idea.
That certainly tempers a lot of the emotions of this potential deal.
@jim. 50 more homeruns? Why don’t you just not comment anymore.
@baltar – taking everything you read on the internet completely literally? why don’t you just not comment anymore.
The rangers probably feel like they are still good enough to make the playoffs, and in playoff series, where an ace pitches in 25-40% of playoff games, as opposed to 20% in regular season, was more valuable. In terms of their championship goals. They aren’t thinking about getting to the playoffs, they are worried about championships.
Also Moreland was hurt last year, and the rangers believe his value is closer to the 870-900 ops numbers he put up the first 2 months of the season, than his post injury stats.
I’m thinking along these lines too.
Not that it’s been terribly well represented in the actual post-season, but I think the Rangers are trying to match up better with the phillies/giants rotations.
Darvish potentially gives you an ace quality pitcher to plug into the Feldman/Lewis/Feliz/Ogando/Holland rotation, which helps you match up with Lincecum/Cain/Bumgartner and Halladay/Lee/Hamels and carrying six guys that have started effectively gives you some insurance if somebody gets injured.
You left out Matt Harrison, who was a +4 win SP in his breakout season last year.
Looking at Hideo Nomo and Dice-K as comps, I think Darvish has a good chance to at least look like an ace his first year or two. bWAR has Nomo compiling 5.1 WAR in his “rookie” season and Dice-K posting a 4.9 in his second US year. But it seems like these Japanese throwers have problems making adjustments that continue to make them effective. Sure, that might just be age and guys playing two or three years and then getting out of their prime, but the evidenceof Japanese pitchers dominating the league for five or six years is just not there.
Dice-K has always sucked, and his one good year was a fluke. Nomo declined because of a shot to the elbow. Are we just ignoring the solid few years he put up at the end of his career? If you want another Japanese pitcher comp., look at Kuroda, who came over at age 33, and, despite being afflicted with the tragic condition of being Japanese, hasn’t been limited to being effective for exactly two seasons.
Kuroda’s put up 8.6 bWAR in 4 seasons. Let’s hope $110 million buys more production than that.
Are you being intentionally obtuse? or are you just dense? Let me break it down for you, step by step, so you can follow.
1. You seem to believe that Japanese pitchers have some magical Japanese-ness that makes them unable to succeed for more than a couple of years.
2. You base that conclusion on exactly two pitchers, Nomo and Dice-K, neither of whom fit the profile of a pitcher who succeeded for a couple of years then got figured out.
3. Then there’s Kuroda, who, as you say, produced 8 WAR over 4 years but in a very consistent manner.
Good luck.
No, I was responding initially to the post above me that said Darvish was an ‘ace quality pitcher’ who could NOW compete with, among others, Tim Lincecum and Roy Halladay. The point of my post was that no Japanese pitcher who’s come to the majors with a lot of attention on him has turned into an ace. I listed Nomo and Dice-K because they are the ones who have come closest to an ‘ace quality’ pitcher, even if for a year or two. That was it. I think lumping them into the same category, which is pitchers who have pitched to Japanese-quality hitters their whole career and then have come over here to try and duplicate that success, was appropriate. The reason I only listed Nomo and Dice-K is because Darvish has received similar hype. Kuroda, Kenshin Kawakami, etc. did not. And Kuroda hasn’t produced one ace-quality season either. So, yes, my subset was highly-touted Japanese pitchers expected to produce like an ace.
Perhaps you didn’t read the post above mine. And no, I am not obtuse or dense.
“But it seems like these Japanese throwers have problems making adjustments that continue to make them effective.”
“These Japanese throwers”, being Hideo Nomo and Dice-K.
after two years in majors:
Hideo Nomo 11.8 WAR over 9 seasons
Dice-K 1.3 WAR over 2 seasons
These white guys like Jason Marquis don’t throw worth a shit either. Seriously, comparing Davish to Dice K makes about as much sense as comparing Jason Heyward to Brian McCann. Yea, played high school ball in the same area, came up through the same “system”, yea, same nationality, but that’s about where it ends.
It’s spelled Darvish, and the comparison was about the fact that they pitched in the Japanese leagues for years and then came here, to limited success long-term.
If I lived in Japan and followed Japanese baseball and my team signed Brian McCann and Jason Heyward, they would be comparable.
I know how it’s spelled, ever miss a leter when typing? Happened to me once or twice. If you’re just saying “they pitched in Japan and had limited success…how about the large number of dominican, puerto rican, american, canadian, etc that fail? It’s DUMB, flat out dumb to compare two guys simply because they pitched in the Japanese leagues. They don’t pitch the same, they don’t look the same, they don’t even really have the same profile since DaRvish pitched a lot less innings as an amateur.
I used McCann and Heyward for a reason, their nationalities are the same but their ethnicity isn’t. So even that isn’t comparable between Darvish and DiceK. It is literally just that they both played amateur ball in the same area and were “developed” by the same area. If you lived in Japan and thought Heyward and McCann were comparable, you’d have very poorly constructed a basis for your opinion. You know, grape juice and cabernet are basically the same too, so screw it, it’s all grape juice and should be priced/seen as the same.
Also, let’s pretend it’s the early 2000s. Ichiro is coming over. No other asian players have really seen success, so it’s a pretty safe bet Ichiro will fail too?
You went way out of your way to make me look bad but never showed any numbers to support your ??argument??. I’m tired of posting numbers to prove my point again, I’m done.
bstar, you used irrelevant numbers. What Hideo Nomo, Dice K, or ANY other Japanese pitcher did in the Majors isn’t anymore predictive of his performance than saying “Jason Heyward will have the same career as Brian McCann”. I used FACTS also, only mine were relevant. FACTS, like Darvish is much taller, throws much harder, and threw less innings as an amateur. Those three are so much more important than “well they’re both Japanese” and really, Darvish is half Persian, so it’s literally only their country of birth, where they played high school, and the “system” they came up in. I’m using facts, you used Hideo Nomo and Dice Ks numbers. They aren’t good comps. Why don’t you go get some numbers from guys who are 6’5″ and throw hard? How can you be such a fool to simply say “well they’re both Japanese so it’s a good comparison”. It’s dumb.
bstar, there’s an entire article on here as to why Darvish isn’t a good comp with DiceK. Go read it.
I see you’ve read and commented on today’s Yu Darvish article. Odd how so many others are bringing up Dice-K and Nomo, hehe. I asked for numbers from you, and you said you used “facts”. Again, what are those facts? If its Kuroda’s numbers, you’re just proving my point.
It’s not dumb to compare highly-touted players who played in the Japanese leagues, had great success there, came over here, and rarely(except for the seasons from Nomo and Dice-K listed above) lived up to the hype. Some(Irabu, Dice-K) were complete busts. FWIW, I dont see that happening to Darvish. I just dont think he’s going to pitch like an ace for six years straight, which was my original point.
For some reason I just find this comment very entertaining.
Let it be known that George Clooney and CircleChange11 are very comparable to somebody out there.
when can WE project him?!?!
I don’t get why people say the Rangers got Darvish for 6/$60M (I’m being nice here by excluding the incentives). That’s what Darvish will receive, but in no way what the Rangers paid for him.
Once you include the posting fee, the Rangers are basically paying $18M/year for Darvish. He will have to pitch pretty awesome for the next 6 years to justify that investment.
Fangraphs really needs to bring in an accountant to get the proper valuation of the deal. The posting fee can be amortized, saving taxes. There is potential for increased revenue you can’t get from other pitcher, even if it’s a small amount.
My remedial accounting has it at a $103M deal, before any increased revenue and if he hits the bonuses. But I could totally be wrong, and it would probably take an expert to break it down. It won’t be straight forward “this-is-how-much-cash-deal” like the CJ Wilson, there is some number manipulation that can occur, and it has the potential to provide better value.
$18m/year is like 3.4 WAR/year…. i think he can do that
Averaging 3.5 WAR over 6 years is no small feat.
no, it’s not, but darvish isn’t your ordinary NPB import
I clicked on, hoping I wouldn’t regret having done so. But I do.
When stats became a part of baseball, it was great (and often is still great), but look at what just about – maybe EVERY – stat site discussion ends up being about: the link between winning (which is now not just “the only thing” but “everything!” every fecking time) and money. And money. And money. And money.
I swear that some of the obviously intelligent folk here don’t actually seem to even be able to see the trees for the forest anymore. The game is now only a new version of Fantasy Monopoly. It’s like, when they see a home run, or a great catch, or a season’s worth of effort and pain, it’s translated Matrix-like into a bunch of figures, and dollar figures at that.
Masturbating to crisp portraits of Franklin being piled into colmns of projected wins and losses is certainly a right to any who enjoy it, but it couldn’t be emptier, or more lonely.
You all deserve better.
Not that I’ll be missed, in any way, but I’m finished with this and any site that center on this sort of talk.
May you be lucky enough to actually enjoy a baseball game again without calculating the cost of each pitch and hit.
Why do you think enjoying watching baseball and enjoying looking at the game statistically are mutually exclusive? Also, you do know it’s January, right? Pitchers and catchers don’t report for a month and the season’s 2 1/2 months away. There are no baseball games to enjoy, so the Hot Stove is all we’ve got.
Yep… but fangraphs does have a not-graphs section — where they can appreciate that life is not about exchange.
…wtf?
So, you come to a sabremetric oriented baseball website and complain when people assess contracts according to monetary value?
I sincerely hope you become the GM of every team that I don’t root for.
I know, for me, personally when I see a great catch I run to my computer to look up that player’s UZR to see if it was “luck” or not, before I will allow myself to enjoy the play.
Likewise, as a Cardinal fan, when David Freese hit that HR in the 9th to win game 6, I couldn’t enjoy it because I knew from his stats that it was most likely luck given his HR/FB rate. That whole series was just a frustrating experience for me since I knew the Cardinals were just lucky to be there.
Well, and during Carpenter’s 1-0 win against Halladay in game 5 of the LDS … well, that speaks for itself. I hated every minute of it. That’s just not how the game projected to play out. It ruined the whole experience for me.
Some people enjoy watching movies with no plot, a bunch of explosions and beautiful people poorly acting and saying really stupid things, other people enjoy watching movies with a complex plot, or character studies, or, basically, Daniel Day Lewis being awesome. Some people enjoy watching baseball without thinking, without trying to gain a better understanding, others enjoy digging deeper.
What is the projected boost in revenue – TV and otherwise – for a team that signs a Japanese superstar? I’m assuming Darvish in the the same class as Ichiro and Matsui.
Probably not as much as you’d imagine.
No idea what the revenue boost would be, but I’d be inclined to imagine it will be a good deal less than Ichiro and Matsui. My first thought was that the large majority of the Japanese Audience will tune in just for Darvish’s starts. Also, New York and Seattle have a much larger Asian market than Texas. No idea if that last part is actually true, but I’d be willing to bet Yu’s posting fee on it.
I think it’ll fluctuate. He doesn’t seem to have the hype of a Dice-K or Ichiro when they came over, at least in my opinion. If he turns into a legit ace though, there could be a pretty decent increase in revenue from the Japanese market.
Since broadcast rights are sold before, would that really matter? Or would the speculation help in the sales pitch and maybe in like year 3 or 4? Also, what’s the split on the merchandise? I bet they sell a ton of jerseys in Japan. He’s like some sort of weird model over there it seems. Seen some REALLY creepy pictures that are apparently sexy in that culture. I’m guessing you make a female cut jersey and sell the shit out of it in Asian markets.
Am I the only person who doesn’t understand this deal? They pay 6 years, 110 million to a guy who has never pitched in the big leagues. Also, they move Ogondo out of the rotation to make room? The net WAR is probably 2 ( at best). And they are paying 18 million to get those 2 wins. I’m confused.
C’mon guys, Barbara Bush…really?
Yup, made of metal and circuit boards, arch-enemy of jesus.
who knew?
FanGraphs keeps deleting my comments :(
If you pay attention to the comments on MLB Network and elsewhere, it seems to have become a prima facie belief among the Rangers’ front office that elite pitchers will not sign free agent deals with Texas because of the ballpark. They apparently saw this as an opportunity to lock up an elite pitcher they could not acquire through the regular free agent process.
Every is forgetting who probably benefits from this the most, Justin Smoak. Now he is no longer going to lead the league in PPAT (Puns Per Article Title). On the MLB site right now, a record 25% of all links in their little box are puns about one player, “Yu Haul” as well as “Only Yu?”. In just the last month, Yu has racked up Puns (or Ps as those in the know call them) like no one else in history. “Helping you know Yu” and “and offer Yu couldn’t refuse” perhaps just being the beginning of a long and pun-filled career.
After his first MLB win I expect at least one newspaper headline “Yu can do it”
If he blows it “Yu suck”, if he wins a playoff game “Yu the man” the amount of material they have for the next 6 years is disgusting.
The Rangers have been a great team for a couple years now, but haven’t won the World Series. Stud starting pitchers are the number one thing MLB GM’s want when setting up a playoff-type roster. Darvish has the stuff and control to be a potential ace. They are getting him for six years of the prime of his career. They didn’t feel CJ.Wilson was an ace…plain and simple. They basically let him go, and gave that money to Darvish instead. I figure $115 mil for six years of Darvish and two good draft picks is about the same as $77.5 mil for five years of Wilson if you take the median projections for all involved. I’d rather have Darvish for age 25-30 seasons, than Wilson’s age 31-35 seasons….and it’s not even close.
That’s a lotta cash for a pitcher who is almost certain not to meet expectations.