Yu Darvish’s Command Problem
The quality of Yu Darvish‘s stuff is glaringly obvious. His fastball sits between 91-95 MPH and has serious run, while he throws a pair of breaking balls that dive differently and works in an 89 MPH cutter with late action. And, he’s got a wide enough variety of options to give hitters a lot of different looks.
As you can see, there are no distinct clumps there. He’s thrown curveballs at 66 MPH, curveballs at 80 MPH, and pretty much everything in between. His slider has been between 80 and 86, and then his three fastballs give him the ability to go anywhere between 88 and 95. This is the repertoire of a guy who should miss a lot of bats.
And yet, after three starts, Darvish just isn’t fooling anyone. 333 pitches into his big league career, and opposing batters have made contact on 81.6% of the pitches he’s thrown. Major League average for a starting pitcher in 2012 is 81.7%. For comparison, the other pitchers with contact rates between 81.0-81.9% include Doug Fister, Felix Doubront, Jake Arrieta, R.A. Dickey, Ervin Santana, Mark Buehrle, Jamie Moyer, Jaime Garcia, Ryan Vogelsong, Jonathan Sanchez, Ian Kennedy, and Freddy Garcia.
There’s some good pitchers in there, so it’s not like being associated with Kennedy and Garcia is a disaster. Besides, it’s just three starts, but I’d imagine that having the same rate contact allowed as Jamie Moyer was not exactly what the Rangers had in mind when they paid over $100 million to acquire Darvish this off-season.
So, what’s the deal? If Darvish’s stuff is as good as it looks, then why isn’t he getting batters to swing and miss more often?
The main reason appears to be directly related to the first pitch of each at-bat. Darvish has thrown a first pitch strike to just 48% of the batters he’s faced – league average is 59%. Most pitchers, especially the good ones, are able to get ahead in the count with regularity and expand the zone from there. Darvish has had to pitch from behind in the count to 46 of the 88 batters he’s faced this year, and opposing batters are just choosing to lay off his hard-to-hit breaking balls and wait for a fastball that they know is coming eventually.
And, thanks to Darvish’s struggles to throw his fastball for strikes, they haven’t even had to chase those fastballs in many cases. Most of Darvish’s command problems have against left-handed batters – he’s walked 17.2% of the ones he’s faced – and he’s simply not been able to throw his fastball for strikes against lefties.
As you can see, he’s pitched almost exclusively away against left-handed batters, but he hasn’t been able to throw the fastball on the outer half of the plate with regularity. He hasn’t even been missing on the borders – there’s a large section of pitches that have been way outside, or so far and up and away that the hitter didn’t even need to consider swinging. Add in that that he’s only really working one side of the plate against LHBs, and opposing hitters have been able to look for a pitch in a certain spot, and if it’s not there, lay off.
And lay off they have. Batters have only swung at 40.8% of the pitches Darvish has thrown this year, and only 22.5% of the pitches that have been outside of the Pitch F/x defined strike zone. By living outside the zone and constantly pitching from behind in the count, Darvish has essentially neutralized his swing-and-miss pitches. Until he starts getting ahead in the count more regularly, opposing batters will simply continue to sit on the fastballs away, and make him show that he can throw those for strikes on a consistent basis.
On one hand, it’s only three starts, and his numbers aren’t all that different from what David Price has posted early on, and no one believes that Price is going to struggle all year long. The difference, though, is that Price has shown that he can throw strikes against American hitters, while Darvish has not. Even in spring training, this is how Darvish pitched – fastballs up and away, constantly falling behind hitters, and issuing way too many walks.
In Japan, of course, this wasn’t Darvish at all. He walked just 1.4 batters per nine innings in 2011, and his ability to pound the zone while still missing bats is part of what made him so good. However, the quality of competition is clearly different in the Major Leagues, and to date, Darvish hasn’t shown the same ability to consistently throw his fastball for strikes.
Until he does, his stuff is going to have to bail him out of jams rather than allow him to put hitters away. There’s no question that he has the pitches to miss bats, but part of generating swinging strikes is getting hitters to chase pitches out of the zone. They won’t do that when the count is routinely 1-0 or 2-1, so Darvish is just going to have to figure out how to throw his fastball for strikes more often.
It’s far too early to be calling him a bust or to believe that this is the best he has to offer, but it seems that he might not have been as polished as his numbers from Japan led people to believe. He still has the chance to develop into a frontline starting pitcher, but right now, he looks a lot more like a prospect who isn’t quite ready for the show.
I don’t understand why it’s so much harder for him to command his pitches in America as opposed to Japan. Is the strike zone that much different? Do hitters chase more pitches there? Is he pitching less aggressively?
They use a different sized baseball, which I have to imagine is the biggest speedbump in his way right now
Also the size and shape of the strike zone differs between the leagues.
What kind of baseball do they use for WBC? Why don’t standardize the size of baseball across the world??
I thought I read an article here on FG awhile back that said Darvish was working out with an MLB ball for the last year or so in Japan.
They use the MLB ball for the WBC. Japan also standardized theirs during Darvish’s last season there to be more similar to the MLB ball. I think he is just going through a phase of adapting to better hitters and a different strike zone.
I also would imagine that the better hitters here have a better idea of the strike zone and are not chasing out of the zone as much: Just a 23% O-swing by pitch f/x and 29% by BIS
Darvish has said that American batters chase less often than Japanese batters, so that’s certainly part of it
Wait until he sees the Padres in interleague.
If you look at Matsuzaka’s control in Japan, it was also much better compared to when he crossed over (His walk rate more than doubled). Based only on that, it’s not surprising that that Darvish is also walking batters at a drastically higher rate early on. Bigger strikezone over there? Freer swingers? I couldn’t tell you.
What about other Japanese starters? Ishii’s walk rate also went up, though not as drastically. I can’t find Irabu’s Japanese walk rate, but his was fairly high in the MLB. On the other hand, Kuroda’s walk rate stayed pretty constant when he joined the Dodgers.
Going back even further, Hideo Nomo cut his walk rate nearly in half when he crossed over in 1995.
Perhaps the lesson is that walk rates in Japan simply don’t translate to walk rates in MLB with any sort of precision.
There is certainly an asymmetry between batters’ and Darvish’s familiarity with the MLB strikezone. That is, they know precisely where the strikezone is and he’s still learning it.
Kuroda’s walks will likely skyrocket this year now that he’s in the AL or he’ll give up a ton of hits. Darvish = Matsuzaka 2.0. He’ll have some nice games but overall he won’t earn anything close to what he was paid.
We heard time and again that Darvish was not the second coming of Daisuke. If we remember back to what Daisuke was when he came over it’s apparent that stuff wise they are quite comparable. Velocity and secondary pitches are quite similiar. I think a problem both of them face is trying to be to precise when throwing pitches.
“There’s some good pitchers in there, so it’s not like being associated with Kennedy and Garcia is a disaster. Besides, it’s just three starts, but I’d imagine that having the same rate contact allowed as Jamie Moyer was not exactly what the Rangers had in mind when they paid over $100 million to acquire Darvish this off-season.”
Is it just me or is this a seriously self-contradictory paragraph? The rest of the article was a good read though.
He’s saying that Darvish’s pitching isn’t a disaster, but it hasn’t yet been good enough to justify $100M contract. Not really contradictory, because the threshold for “disaster” is vague, and he’s pitching as well as some guys who command (or will command) big paychecks, just not $100M big. (Of course, Moyer is only getting a couple $M, so if Darvish doesn’t improve as he gets comfortable with MLB batting, then Texas has spent $100M for a result they could have achieved with only $2M. Which could be considered a disaster. Very, very improbable.)
But wait, everyone told me that he was undoubtedly a better prospect than Daisuke was at the same point (and of course they all insisted that was not in the least bit based on hindsight).
BTW, in Daisuke’s first three starts:
20 innings
24 K, 5 BB, 1 HR, 6 ER
Because he was a better prospect.
If anything, the statistics you quoted is prime reason that we shouldn’t look too much into three starts.
What are you trying to say? That you’ve decided that Matsuzaka is better than Darvish after seeing three starts from the latter?
Its decided, Darvish will never be better than Dice-K
it’s almost like 3 starts isn’t a great sample-size to judge a pitcher on
“it’s almost like 3 starts isn’t a great sample-size to judge a pitcher on”
Not that I am even guilty of this, but yeah, that’s much worse than declaring Darvish unquestionably better based on ZERO starts.
This is not about Daisuke, I’m under no illusions in regards to him. He started out well in the US but he turned out to be mediocre, at best.
All I’m saying is the ridiculous hype for Darvish always came with an addendum: “Oh, we know Daisuke was similarly hyped, but this guy’s better.” And it was based on Daisuke’s disappointing career in MLB a LOT more than it was based on Darvish’s ability/performance. But nobody would admit that.
And now, based on a very small sample (though you don’t seem to have a problem with Dave using it for his analysis), it looks like Darvish might have the same Achille’s Heel as Daisuke.
You compare him to Ian Kennedy and Jaime Garcia….Then tie things up by saying he’s “like a prospect, not ready for the show.”
Hmmm….
I didn’t “compare him” to those guys – I noted that a league average contact rate can be okay, as evidenced by those two guys. The difference, of course, is that those two throw strikes. Garcia and Kennedy have combined to walk nine guys this year, while Darvish has walked 13 by himself.
Oh! I thought you were comparing him to Freddy Garcia, who is also in that paragraph. Oh dear.
what a brutal comment….
“he looks a lot more like a prospect who isn’t quite ready for the show.”
Let’s clarify our terms here. When you say he “looks more like a prospect…,” what are you “looking” at? I ask because I’ve watched every pitch he’s thrown this season on the television box, and to me, he looks like a legit big-league pitcher. One who is struggling with command at times, but then again, lots of pitchers struggle with their command early on. Seems to me that he’s a couple of tiny adjustments away from being the front-line starter we all suspected he could be.
i think by that he means someone with great stuff but hasnt gotten command of his pitches and may be suffering from facing better hitters.
haha television box
while there was still issues vs the tigers, it was MUCH better than the first two starts. it looks like he was missing closer to the plate. and he had enough command for torrealba to frame pitches. In his previous two after the first inning the catchers hwere just standing over the middle of the plate holding their glove ready for anything. Could you look at that trend. Is it not the case?
Pitch F/x strike zone plot says he was wild to the outside against lefties, just like always.
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxg.aspx?playerid=13074&position=P&season=2012&date=2012-04-19&dh=0
Last night he was behind in counts and still got swing and misses with his FB. he hit the target a lot compared but seemed to have focus lapses and walk bottom of the order hitters. His secondary stuff was better especially the curveball. It is maddening though when he seems to lose focus…
Despite his problems with throwing the first pitch for a strike and walking too many guys, he certainly has shown exceptional makeup and is a plus-plus fielder on the mound. If he ever does get the ball over the plate (and he will eventually) he’s going to an ass kicker.
I agree with what Dave said though about LH hitters. He seems to pitch much more aggressive against RH hitters amd miss away a lot to LH hitters. his best pitch to battle LH hitters seems to be his cutter, but he was behind in the count to get LH hitters to fish for it when he did throw it. he did get a couple Ks versus LH hitters with his curveball on the outside corner
I think any pitcher that was fine tuning their mechanics in the beginning of a season because of wild fluctuation in command would look like a prospect.
We don’t say that if they are veterans because we have a history to go off of, as you mentioned with David Price.
I think it is less about the size of the baseball or figuring out how to pitch to big bad Americans than it is a mechanical timing and release point issue.
We know that’s something he can do. We’ve seen it in Japan that he can throw the ball with plus command. He would not be dominating with this command in Japan right now either (though likely with less walks and more Ks making it look a bit better.)
This article from BP did a really good job at looking at what his issues have been… and there has been incremental improvement every game.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16447
I agree with a lot of what you say, but to say that he “isn’t quite ready for the show” is pretty telling of your motives. I don’t follow you much so I can’t comment about your past work but the last line in this article smells of sensationalism. Don’t give me all these stats and ignore the one that matters, 2-0. Despite his troubles, when it absolutely matters the most, he is figuring it out. That is why CJ is gone, lets wait and judge Yu on his performance when the season is on the line.
I agree that he is a legit pitcher, but a 2-0 record is hardly “the stat that matters”. The Ranger hitters bailed him out in his first two starts. Last night against the Tigers was the first one where I’d say he was actually deserving of the W.
I do see your point, he has been helped a lot. But a pitcher who gets the win even when he is bad, is the pitcher I want on my team. A pitcher who loses a lot of close low scoring games is a bad luck loser but also a pitcher that can’t get the outs when they are needed. No doubt Yu is the luckiest pitcher on this staff with his 2-0 record, but it is without a doubt the only stat that matters, and sorry, that can’t be argued.
This is one of the things I like about fangraphs, I know people are joking when they post things like you did. Some disturbing trends here with Darvish, but if and when his results improve we will have more to go on than the “he took some time to adjust to the league” line ESPN will give us.
I like your condescending point, really makes me think. Hmm, you are right, I really hope Yu goes on to dominate the league with a losing record, I mean, after all, the win column is overrated.
“But a pitcher who gets the win even when he is bad, is the pitcher I want on my team.” I love this. What if we extended this logic to position players?
“The outfielder who starts that game that we win despite his 5 strikeouts and 4 errors is the outfielder I want on my team.”
Anybody can go pick a line and exploit it. Nice one, only problem is you are quoting me out of context, maybe you should read every other comment I made in this thread to get a more accurate sense of what I am saying.
I stand by my comment, when the player who has a bad day can still find a way to help his team win, he has proven to be a winner. When you are your best and have your stuff, winning can be easy, show me some heart when you are not at your best, that’s what I am talking about.
Coming to FanGraphs and citing a pitcher’s record isn’t gonna get you anywhere, and rightly so.
Every manager in baseball will take a poorly pitched W over a masterfully pitched L. As a Ranger fan I don’t care how it gets done, I have watched a team with great numbers(offense) for years rack up the L’s, give me the W. I am not trying to get “anywhere”, I am expressing my opinion and engaging in baseball talk, isn’t it great!
28.1ld%, 29.8fb%, 0.0hr/fb%
yowza. danger signs.
hmmm…indeed.
That’s right, no manager in baseball would want Felix Hernandez’ performance from last night. The whole 8 innings, 0 runs, 12 Ks thing? Worthless, because the team lost. Give me a break. Pitching is independent of hitting.
For the record, I am not comparing Yu to King Felix.
Yu pitched 6 1/3 innings, gave up two hits and one earned run.
Your are correct, pitching is independent of hitting, where individual stats are concerned….but not in the game of baseball, where wins are concerned. My point with every comment is that the number of wins is more important then any other number.
If you can get King’s performance every night for the win, that is ideal, but not baseball.
Yes, Ron Washington will take Yu’s Win over Felix’s Loss every time.
golf clap for the trolling, Andrew.
Apparently I am a Troll, fine with me.
i doubt you will get a lot of people to take this post seriously.
I’m sorry man, I thought I was talking baseball with baseball fans. Nobody has to take it seriously. How about you enjoy your serious baseball, I am going to go enjoy a historical Rangers start to the 2012 season. Wow, it’s a game folks.
So, maybe Andrew’s not joking. Andrew, it’s nothing personal, but sometimes people get frustrated when people say ignorant things that they have to respond and it’s usually with snark. I mean, nobody wants to feed trolls, but, just like with bears, it’s so difficult not to.
So when you say “it’s nothing personal”, that’s usually a good indication that you are making it personal, i.e..calling me ignorant and a troll. I have been watching losing Rangers Baseball for all of my ignorant Trolling existence, if declaring that a Win is the most important stat makes me ignorant, well, continue with your insults, they are lovely.
I prefer to pay tribute and quote the late Mark Holtz.
“Hello win column!”
Again I say, that’s all that matters.
I suppose all you stat guys are right, I don’t belong on this forum.
whats historical about the rangers start?
1) With Yu Darvish’s victory ,the Rangers starting rotation is 9-0 for the first time in franchise history.
2) The Rangers have won seven consecutive games, including the last six on the road. This matches the 1989 club for the most consecutive road wins at the start of a season.
These are Historical Rangers facts, I thought you were the stats guy?
huh? what made you think i was the stats guy?
regarding the “historical stats”, i guess we just have different standards
So by your standards they should be undefeated? I mean, I look for the good in what we have, and what we have is good team in April.
Of course I want a WS ring, but October is a summer away. So I will enjoy winning streaks and Starting Pitching dominance.
nothing you just said addressed anything i said….
Your standards are higher? Try clarifying your points so they can be properly addressed.
..and I guess I was lumping you in with everyone else who are quoting over analyzed statistics, my apologies, I suppose you are not a stat guy.
Hey, I may not be a numbers guy but at least I sparked a conversation, gave you stat guys someone to rally against, get your heart beats up. I mean, this is the most discussed thread and as of now has nine down-votes(one being mine).
I didn’t think we still had to explain that pitcher wins are not the best way to evaluate pitchers. I really thought we were past that point. Especially when they come in 3 game samples. What does the fact that Yu won 2 of those games tell us? That he’s a winner? I’m sorry, but it just doesn’t tell us anything.
I’ll just throw a name out there who never gets any wins, but is a great pitcher. Felix Hernandez. He pitched 8 innings last night, let up 5 hits and walk, and struck out 12 but didn’t get the win. Does that mean he’s not a good pitcher?
Well, in none of my posts did I say he was a great pitcher, as a matter of fact I am not sure you read any of my comments. The only evaluation I made of Yu is that it is wrong to say he doesn’t belong…that’s it.
So you are comparing Yu to King Felix? Way to kill a bee with a bazooka! King has been a bad luck loser since he got in this league, and Yu is no King Felix. But as long as he pitches well enough for the Rangers to win, that is good enough for me. If the Rangers are fortunate enough to make the playoffs, then maybe we will truly see what he’s got. Playoffs…now that is place where your precious stats are meaningless and the W rules.
If Yu continues to pitch like he has, it is probable that your Rangers wont continue to win at the rate they are in his starts.
I hate to correct you but you are wrong. If Yu continues to pitch like he has, which is to get better with each start, then “My” Rangers are going to have another deep run into the playoffs. Well wouldn’t that be great…
Andrew,
At first I thought you were a troll who was citing a pitcher’s win-loss record to angry up the blood of some “saber nerds.” However, I can see from your continuation in the discussion that you are an enthusiastic fan who simply likes baseball and the Texas Rangers. The condescension and sarcasm you have encountered is because usually when people cite statistics like you did in the comments section at Fangraphs it is because they are trying to do what I mentioned in my first sentence. I don’t think you are, though.
You should enjoy and follow baseball however it is that you want to. But, if you don’t want to subscribe to or buy into sabermetric principles, your opinions probably won’t be received all that positively on a sabermetric website.
Andrew, I agree that winning is the most important part of the game, but the win-loss record of individual pitchers is a strange stat. While it is an individual stat awarded to the “pitcher of record”, the stat itself is a more generic indication of the team as a whole.
For example, King Felix’s record is indicative of the poor offense the Mariner’s possess. A starting pitcher with a lot of no decisions may be an indicator that the team’s bullpen isn’t performing.
However, Andrew, I do agree that Yu has shown some grit so far this season, which is what I think you’re trying to say and what you’re happy about. Enduring a poor performance to get a win can be important. Eating innings is often a big part of being a successful starting pitcher in the majors.
Still, saying a pitcher is good enough to win regardless of pitching poorly still admits just that, that Yu has pitched poorly. Yu’s record at this point is mostly attributed to Texas’ powerhouse offense.
Still, coming on a site like Fangraphs that generally discusses advanced stats for individual players and citing a pitcher’s win-loss record as the most important stat and dismissing Yu’s obvious control issue early on is silly. If anything, the most important stat is the team’s win-loss record, and not an individual pitcher’s win-loss record.
On Fangraphs, however, the analysis of all those deep stats is what everyone is hoping adds up to a successful win-loss record for their team. I think the argument at this point is that Yu’s lack of control has been more a detriment to his team’s success than anything. I’m hopeful he’ll get better though, and with Texas’ lineup backing him up, the wins should keep coming for him.
I pretty much agree with everything you said. Yu has gotten better with each start and shown grit; that is key and can’t be argued.
The only issue I ever had with this article, as I stated previously, is the comment saying he doesn’t belong. That statement has through three starts been proven flat wrong, and it was the last line in the article.
yeah. that’s over the top.
i think yu is held to a higher standard for three reasons. dice k, the overall hype (which may be part of dice k’s aftermath), and the amount of money given to him.
i guess you could give him a bum rap since he hasn’t “put in the time” compared to those who went through the minors, but puro yakyu is considered at least equal to AAA ball, and i think it’s a bonus that cameron’s only argument is he has control issues, mostly against lefties.
if anything, i think yu is on a good path. i don’t think it’s anywhere near crazy to think he can wrangle his control and get on the right path. washington has shown confidence and i think slowly but surely it’s translating into confidence for yu.
i know cameron insinuates he may not belong in the majors, but i think the predictions that he may win al roty are more in line.
Your summation is on point. ..and you are correct, I don’t belong on this site.
I would be really curious to see league average walk rates for hitters in Japan. My hypothesis is that the average hitter over there is a lot more Placido Polanco in approach than Ben Zobrist. If that is true, then a guy like Darvish can get away living on or just off of the black over there, and not be able to be as effective using the same method here.
Of course with his stuff he’ll likely find a good deal of success here. But if this hypothesis is right, his “plus command” over there might not mean much here.
Command isn’t about throwing strikes. It’s about hitting your target and throwing the ball where you intend to. He did that well and his mechanics suggest it should be a strength for him when he corrects his rotation timing issue.
Right now he is very very very inconsistent in hitting his targets. Quite often he’ll miss the catcher’s target by a significant amount… often high and to the arm side.
6.7% & 7.7% BB rates in the JPL/PCL for the past two years. 8.1% & 8.5% in MLB. Lower, but not some chasm that would explain much of Davish’s problems.
“opposing batters have made contact on 81.6% of the pitches he’s thrown”
You mean 81.6% of the pitches they’ve swung at?
There’s an oddly aggressive tone to a lot of responses to this article, much more than I would expect for what was overall a very mild and quite fact-based critique of a pitcher who is clearly walking more batters than he or the Rangers would like to see. Overall I thought it was a good piece.
just read through the comments, i dont really see an aggressive tone.
do agree with your point that it was a good piece and theres nothing overly concerning… yet.
There are a lot of Rangers junkies in this thread today. I’m one, and I recognize several handles from Rangers blogs.
McBrown, you must not read much of Dave Cameron’s article. Usually good, but often very “flammable” stuff. This is a very mild form of aggression here compared to the norm.
This was a good article, but I wonder if his issue is deeper than just first pitch strikes.
1-1 count: 25% BB, 25% K
Darvish is WAY behind league average here. In a 1-1, MLB is about 13K:5BB ratio right now; in a 1-1 count, Darvish should be putting batters away if his stuff is really good; there’s probably no count where a batter is more determined to swing at strikes and sit on balls. If he’s going to fool hitters, he should be succeeding at it more when he’s actually ahead, but he isn’t.
I don’t think you’ll find many Rangers fans who disagree that fastball command has been an issue. Maybe saying he looks like a prospect is a bit overboard, maybe it isn’t, but the underlying point that he needs to develop his stuff to improve his K and BB rates is still spot on.
A big part of it, I’m sure, is adjusting to more patient hitters and a different strike zone. If Darvish is the pitcher a lot of people think he is, the walks will start to stabilize.
“it’s almost like 3 starts isn’t a great sample-size to judge a pitcher on”
Not that I am even guilty of this, but yeah, that’s much worse than declaring Darvish unquestionably better based on ZERO starts.
This is not about Daisuke, I’m under no illusions in regards to him. He started out well in the US but he turned out to be mediocre, at best.
All I’m saying is the ridiculous hype for Darvish always came with an addendum: “Oh, we know Daisuke was similarly hyped, but this guy’s better.” And it was based on Daisuke’s disappointing career in MLB a LOT more than it was based on Darvish’s ability/performance. But nobody would admit that.
And now, based on a very small sample (though you don’t seem to have a problem with Dave using it for his analysis), it looks like Darvish might have the same Achille’s Heel as Daisuke.
I’m sorry, but this is nonsense. Darvish will be much better than Daisuke, not based on 0 starts, but based on hundreds. Against similar levels of competition in Japan, Daisuke’s best single season ERA was 2.18. Darvish’s career number, and last 5 single seasons, were sub-2. The K and BB numbers all show a similar gap between the two. And Daisuke’s best season was his last in Japan, at age 36, in his prime, while Darvish’s prime (widely accepted to begin at age 26, on average), won’t hit until 2013.
None of this is to say Darvish isn’t overhyped. Time will tell. He may well turn out to be. But in an apples-to-apples comparison of their numbers in Japan, there is no way to slice the stats that doesn’t show Darvish to be a much better ML prospect.
*age 26
This is what we heard about Daisuke before he came over: “He throws 95, he has 8 pitches, he commands all of them.” Same stuff we heard about Darvish.
I don’t recall hearing that Daisuke was a power pitcher. But regardless of what was written, when Daisuke actually did come over, he wasn’t lighting up radar guns to 95-96, which Darvish is. We can see with our own 2 eyes that Darvish does have the velocity that was advertised, velocity MLB Daisuke simply never showed.
Again, Darvish may be totally overhyped, but nothing is more overhyped than the idea of comparing 2 athletes because of their race/country of origin/team even when those comparisons are actually not very good. I’ve yet to hear the first Darvish/Colby Lewis comp despite the fact that they both pitched in Japan until recently and now both pitch for the same team, in the same park, with the same defense behind them. Why?
Darvish is 5 inches taller than Daisuke, 2 years younger, observably throws harder. They just are not very similar pitchers at all. So if not Daisuke, what might be the best comp for Darvish? The unsettling answer may be that there simply is no good comp for him. We may have to all wait and see. That’s exciting but unnerving at the same time.
I know one thing, though. If any Front Office other than the best talent evaluation Front Office in baseball had made this signing, I’d be at least a little more skeptical about it.
I really hope he can harness the fastball, it’s really puzzling to me. He does whatever the hell he wants with his array of breaking balls but completely loses the fastball command at times.
He doesn’t trust that his FB will get ML hitters out yet, and he’s overthrowing.
so if they swing at around 40% of the pitches he throws, and swing and miss at around 20% of the pitches he throws, that means they swing and miss at 50% of the pitches they swing at. That seems pretty impressive to me, what’s league average?
“I’ve yet to hear the first Darvish/Colby Lewis comp despite the fact that they both pitched in Japan until recently and now both pitch for the same team, in the same park, with the same defense behind them. Why?”
Did you seriously just type this pretending like you’re the first person to raise this misguided point? Wow dude, you just blew my mind, I hadn’t thought of it that way before.
Also, your velo statements are just total BS. So far Darvish is averaging 92.9, in 2007 Daisuke averaged 92.4. Oops. Try again. (Can’t wait for your next reply where you say .5 MPH is a significant difference).
You really gave yourself away with the “best talent evaluators EVAR!!1″ comment too. It’s okay you’re a Rangers fanboy, but try to deal in facts from now on.
I’m not talking about averaging. I’m talking about touching. Daisuke didn’t touch the higher numbers Darvish does.
In 2007 Daisuke averaged 91.9 per Fangraphs, not 92.4. So now you’re just making up numbers.
And Fangraphs has Darvish at 93. So it’s not 0.5 MPH difference. It’s 1.1 MPH. You fail. Also, you fail because you refuse to ackonowledge the obvious: In an apples-to-apples comparison of their large sample size of Japanese work, Darvish is clearly better, and by a large margin. Deny it. I dare you.
Looking at the game by game velocity charts, it looks like Daisuke had just as much if not more velocity than Durvish does now:
Daisuke: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=7775&position=P&pitch=FA
Durvish: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=13074&position=P&pitch=FA
Comparing pitchers who came up through the same development system makes sense. Durvish and Daisuke have a lot in common because they are both Japanese baseball players who played in Japan their entire lives before coming to the U.S. Previously they had faced predominantly Japanese batters and AAAA equivalent players.
You also have to remember that Darvish is making an adjustment from being the class of the league to just another guy here. In Japan he was likely getting borderline calls from the umps that top pitchers tend to get. He likely hasn’t pitched with an honest called zone in years. I’m sure he will adjust once he realizes he isn’t getting the iffy called strikes anymore.
Even if that’s true, that doesn’t explain the observations about Darvish frequently missing the targets his catcher is laying down.
I trust Dave’s analysis on YU about as much as his analysis of Seattle being #6org.
The Rangers would do the Davish deal again in a second. His makeup is very sound. Matsuzaka, not so much. Matsuzaka plain hated throwing strikes.
While the pitch trackers and such may lead you to believe that Darvish’s command was at the same level in his first three starts, especially against lefties, with actual observance of each game, no one who has seen all three starts denies that he has improved in each one.
For those of you who do not believe the Rangers can consistently win when a pitcher allows a team like Detroit to 1 run on 2 hits in what should have been 7 innings were it not for an error by Kinsler, than you are just delusional. The guy has not gotten many of the borderline calls that he definitely would have gotten in Japan and this has hurt his overall pitch count and walk rates. Adjusting to the strike zone here will allow him to pitch to those spots on the edge of the zone more.
How did prince fielder do yesterday against Darvish, being a superstar lefty with great plate discipline? He did manage to draw a walk but also looked silly in his last at bat striking out swinging on a nasty pitch by Darvish.
The baseball in Japan is still different than the one in the US, even though for the last year, they switched to a baseball more similar to MLB standards, it is more of an in between size and feel than an exact mLB ball so he does need time to get used to throwing a bigger and more slick ball. Regarding the velocity between him and Dice K, there isnt a huge gap between their velocities on their respective four seamers, Darvish’s two seamer is actually his higher velocity offering on average, so far averaging a healthy 93.5mph three games into the season, so while Daisuke;s best velocity average for a season came in at 92mph in 2010, the difference of a 1.5mph bump in velocity is a pretty big deal, considering Darvish has yet to fully adjust to the MLB and is still only 3 games into the season, when many pitchers’ usually are still building up their arm strength and see an uptick in velocity after the first few starts as a result. Lastly, Darvish has the ability to max out his fastball at 97mph, as we saw in spring training this year, so its evident that Yu has greater velocity upside for the future.
“While the pitch trackers and such may lead you to believe that Darvish’s command was at the same level in his first three starts, especially against lefties, with actual observance of each game, no one who has seen all three starts denies that he has improved in each one. ”
This is just your mind creating a narrative that’s comfortable for you to believe. Sorry.
hi
No pitcher should be evaluated until they meet the lineups in the AL East.
The problem seems to be that he pitched from the stretch exclusively in Japan, and during the first 2 starts and first 3-4 innings of the 3rd start, he has been working on a wind-up. He junks the wind-up mid-way through the 3rd start, and his control appeared to improve.
Thats something that I’m surprised Dave didn’t pick up on. The guy, from what I hear, pitched entire seasons at a time through the stretch. He just looks like he isn’t comfortable in the wind up, considering how little he likes to use it and how much it changes from game to game.
Not that it made a big difference against the Tigers. Unless it (somehow) contributed to helping the BIP issues he had the first 2 games. Hell, Seattle hit a line drive pretty much every time they put the ball in play.
So i guess when you go from giving up hard hits and liners to seattle’s “daunting” lineup to pitching against Tigers and giving up 2 hits including holding Cabrera and Fielder hitless is not an improvement, but my mind creating a narrative. (Cabrera and Fielder were a combined 0-5 with 1BB and 1K against him).
@ Scooby Dude
I thought someone posted here that Darvish pitched most of his Japan career in an era where ERAs were much lower than where they had been. Dice-K pitched during years where the league ERA was higher.
If true, it’d be like comparing a gods pitcher from 1995 to one in 1966 and concluding that the pitcher from the 60′s is better based on ERA .. Or thinking Yaz’s triple crown season wasn’t all that impressive because it doesn’t look that good compared to stay lined from the late 90s.
ERA has to be compared to league average ERA.
I think we all forget that Daisuke was also supposed to be different than the Irabus. He was very much thought to be “the one” that would just dominate MLB with his plethora of pitches and velocity. Geez, the buzz over the gyro ball was enough to make one think that the Japanes Pedro Martinez was on his way.
This comparison should have come to me sooner, but Darvish’s stuff looks a lot like Tommy Hanson’s stuff with more polish. Both have similar builds, though Darvish seems much more comfortable throwing a wider variety of pitches. The motions are not that far apart now that Hanson has altered his delivery a bit.
A lot of space saying what we all can easily see. So far, Darvish has not had great control, and he needs to be a better job of hitting the strike zone if he’s going to be as good as the Rangers expected. Uhm, no duh?
Dear Andrew and Davey,
As a fellow baseball fan (though of the Tigers not the Rangers), I fully understand the fact that you view Yu’s performance to date optimistically. In fact, I’m doing the same thing with Austin Jackson and Drew Smyly right now. However, the purpose sabermetrics (and this site, really) is to put aside personal and observational bias and evaluate teams and players based on the underlying statistics of what is actually happening on the field. The fact of the matter is that our eyes, hopes, and dreams are not the best predictive tools out there, and a substantial amount of time, effort, and thought has gone in to developing better methods. I’m not sure if you’ll ever read this, I’ll give a quick overview anyway.
Baseball is notoriously resistant to change. So-called “unwritten rules” proliferated to the point where they became, for all practical purposes, a strict law followed by players, managers, front offices and fans. Many of these are trivial superstitions, such as not talking about a no-hitter in progress, or not stepping on the pitcher’s mound. However, many have a significant impact on the actual performance of the team. For example, it has long been believed that shortstops’ and catchers’ defensive contributions to a team are so important that their offense simply doesn’t matter much. Tons of historical data and a little bit of common sense tell you that those spots in the order matter as much as any other, and that no amount of defensive prowess can make up for complete offensive ineptitude (think Neifi Perez or Jeff Mathis). Another quickie: any person involved in baseball to any extent can tell you that leadoff hitters need to be fast. This often results in weak hitters getting the most at bats on the team. Again, common sense says that speed is useless if you don’t actually get on base, and in-depth analyses have shown that on-base ability, not speed, is the most important offensive skill for lead-off hitters to have.
Beginning in 1977, writer and statistician Bill James began to critique many long-standing baseball traditions and statistics. Most notably, he revealed the luck inherent in pitchers’ win-loss record and the inability of batting average to adequately describe a player’s total offensive contributions. This sparked an ongoing movement to replace outdated statistics with new ones that are more descriptive and predictive. Since then, similar lines of thought have shown that RBI’s, fielding percentage, saves, and to a lesser extent, ERA and slugging percentage leave a lot to be desired when evaluating individuals. They are too team dependent (RBI’s), too inaccurate (fielding PCT), too imprecise (ERA, SLG), or all three (W, SV).
Since this article is about Yu Darvish, let’s talk about pitcher wins. Not only is the statistic dependent on the quality of the rest of the pitcher’s team, it is also subject to extreme variations in team performance. For example, converted closer Braden Looper inexplicably received an average of 8.97 runs of support per game in 2009 from a Brewer’s offense that averaged 4.85 per game. Consequently, he finished with a sparkly 14-7 record despite pitching terribly all year long (5.22 ERA, 5.74 FIP, 1.49 WHIP, -0.8 WAR). Now a Brewers fan would probably tell you that he was “a battler” or he “got the job done,” but his team’s performance simply doesn’t excuse his own lack thereof, anymore than a football kicker missing 4 field goals but “coming through in the clutch” excuses his. The fact of the matter is that Looper’s performance severely reduced the team’s probability of winning baseball games. The fact that the rest of his team overcame the handicap in the majority of those games is completely inconsequential in evaluating how well he pitched overall or predicting how he would have pitched in the future had he not retired.
Run support is just one of many factors (including team defense, managerial style, and bullpen performance), that plays into it. This is an extreme example, but the logic is universally true, whereas anecdotal evidence and “gut feelings” are universally subject to error and bias, even if such generalizations have persisted for decades or more.
The unspoken theme here that you will find on nearly every article on this site, is that team performance is nothing more than the aggregate of the individuals. This works in a sport like baseball, which can be broken down into individual plays and performances. You can’t do sabermetrics with soccer, hockey, or basketball; there are simply too many things happening at once. Sabermeticians are often perceived as cold-hearted and distinctly “un-fanlike”, but it simply comes with the territory. I firmly believe that we are, in fact, doing the game a great honor by treating it to thoughtful analysis, and reserve my loyalties to the Tigers anyway. The game is changing. First, it was small markets like Oakland and Tampa Bay trying to scrape together whatever edge they could to compete with the big boys, and now big market teams, such as the Red Sox and Cubs, are catching on.
You don’t have to jump on the bandwagon, but I would encourage you to research the thoughts and principles behind such statistics as Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). You will learn a lot about the underlying statistics and skills that go into winning baseball games and hopefully grow to appreciate the game all the more. This website is a great place to start! I promise you that if you approach these things with sincere curiosity, your questions will be answered and you won’t get 30+ down thumbs on any one comment ever again :) Hopefully that clears things up!
Sincerely,
Kevin
I hate to side with people saying a W is all that matters. So I won’t. Ultimately, winning the game is the point. If that is what they are saying, then fine. Yes I want a pitcher with 20 wins this season, but having 20 wins is not going to get him a big contract. I’d rather sign a guy who has a 2.5 ERA with ten wins then the pitcher with 20 wins and a 4.5 ERA. Those of you saying he is 2-0 and you are happy with that need to realize that when TEX plays SEA and Darvish lines up with Felix…you will most likely lose. Felix will hold your offense to two runs, but Darvish will give up 5 runs. That is, unless things start to click for him. The point is, you can’t always count on the bats to bail you out.
I like the guy and I hope he starts to figure it out soon. It is good for baseball having a whole other country on the edge of their seats every fifth day.
It could very well be nerves, confidence, etc. You never know, his next time out he can go seven and only walk one. I think he’ll be fine, and his K rate will begin to increase.
Pretty close, BrandonMatics. Eight and a third, ten strikeouts, no runs, two walks. I think he belongs.
Why is Dave Cameron allowed to post on this site? Look at examples of his so called analysis:
#1 – Dave vigorously defends that Seattle is #6org. Seattle proceeds to be one of the worst teams in baseball.
#2 – Dave defends the fact that he has the Royals currently ranked as the 7th best team in baseball. The Royals are on a 12 game losing streak and have the worst record in baseball.
#3 – Dave claims that Yu Darvish is “a prospect who isn’t quite ready for the show.” Yu proceeds to pitch 8 1/3 shutout innings, striking out 10, against one of the best lineups in baseball.
3 strikes and you’re out, buddy.