Zach McAllister, Cleveland’s Best Starter

The Indians have had serious starting pitching issues throughout the entire year. Ubaldo Jimenez has been worth negative WAR over 18 starts, Josh Tomlin has been both bad and unfortunate, and Derek Lowe‘s ERA over his past nine starts is 7.16 after posting a 2.15 ERA in his first nine. Justin Masterson has been the most effective starter throughout the season, and even he has a 4.14 ERA. Despite the rotation issues, the Indians they still sit just four games out of first place in the A.L. Central and are just a half game back of the second wildcard.

Without the help of Zach McAllister, the Indians may not be in the thick of the race. He has started just eight games this year between two different major league stints, but he has been the team’s best starter in terms of rate stats when they have allowed him to start. In 2009, Marc Hulet ranked McAllister as the third best prospects in the Yankees’ system. At that time, he was a ground ball pitcher who posted roughly 50% ground ball rates, but he is now striking batters out at a much higher rate and also allowing a good deal of fly balls. In Cleveland, which has played as a sever pitcher’s ball park, the high fly ball rate is a solid quality.

McAllister picked up about a half mile per hour on his fastball and has seen the velocity on his slider and curveball increase as well, which could be part of the reason for the uptick in strikeouts. His power curveball has been especially impressive, and it actually ranks in the top 25 in overall velocity for starters with at least 40 innings thrown, even though his fastball sit just under 92 miles per hour.

The attached video of his six strikeout game in Baltimore displays his impressive repertoire. The fastball, while not overpowering, has been a big driver of whiffs all year as he has a whiff rate above 10.6% according to Brooks Baseball — and a 115 whiff/swing PitchIQ score (100 is average). The curveball has been just as big of a strikeout pitch, with a 113 whiff/swing PitchIQ score and 16.1% whiff rate.

The key with his curveball has been impressive command. He lands it for a strike 66% of the time according to Texas Leaguers, a rate even higher than his fastball. Not only is he able to throw it for a strike, but the below chart details how he is able to stay down in the zone with the pitch to avoid hangers. He has allowed no home runs with the pitch, mainly due to his quality location.

At this point, McAllister looks like the best starter on the Indians’ staff. The strikeouts will likely decline, but his 20.2% rate in triple-A compared to his current 22.2% mark points to the rate being at least somewhat sustainable. If he is able to command his curveball and slider (more like a combination between a cutter and slider) as well as he has, his walk rate should remain low enough to allow his strikeout-to-walk ratio to remain above average.

McAllister’s evolution from a ground ball pitcher into his current form is fascinating, and following his performance for the remainder of the year will be one of the more overlooked but very interesting story lines as the Indians make a push for the postseason.

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Ben has been at RotoGraphs since 2012 and focuses most of his fantasy baseball attention toward dynasty and keeper leagues.

14 Responses to “Zach McAllister, Cleveland’s Best Starter”

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  1. Preston says:

    I was not happy when the Yankees traded him for half a season of Austin Kearns.

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    • syracuse451 says:

      You beat me to the punch on that one. Really a disappointing trade at the time, and Kearns did nothing to prove that it was the right decision. Hit a paltry .235/.345/.324 after hitting .272/.354/.419 in Cleveland.

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    • Brian S. says:

      Seriously. 22.2% whiff rate for a guy that ‘doesn’t have an out pitch’ according to the scouting reports.

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    • Miguel Arias says:

      Seriously. Cashman dropped the ball there.

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      • Marc says:

        He typically does. Crapman is horrible.

        See: Melky Cabrera for an aging and horrible in the AL Javier Vazquez.

        See: Jesus Montero for the blatant inverted W leading to guaranteed shoulder and/or elbow problems Michael Pineda.

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      • Miguel Arias says:


        See: Curtis Granderson

        See: Nick Swisher

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      • Mike says:

        @ Marc

        Melky Cabrera was quite literally the worst player in the MLB the year after he was traded and Jesus Montero has -WAR right now. Obviously we won’t know how that deal pans out for quite a few more years but safe to say that hindsight is 20/20.

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  2. dan says:

    He has a good head on his shoulders, as well. In his last start, he never found good command over his fastball, and was pitching from behind in the count…but he still managed to make effective use of his breaking pitches and fight through it.

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  3. Marc says:

    He touches 95. That’s overpowering.

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    • Ben Duronio says:
      FanGraphs Supporting Member

      He’s got the 64th fastest fastball of any starter with at least 40 innings pitched this year. It certainly isn’t slow, but if that’s overpowering then what are the better ones?

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      • Marc says:

        ZachMac’s gasser may not be overpowering on average but it is overpowering when he chooses to reach back for some extra queso.

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  4. gnomez says:

    Here’s a proposal: Chris Seddon, starting pitcher.

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  5. I_Believe_in_Ghosts says:

    Go ZMac. We are very proud of you!!!!

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