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  1. love the idea, good read.

    Comment by Brad — January 13, 2011 @ 3:45 pm

  2. Nice idea… could you post the results of trying to use this predictor based on 2009 results and see if it unearthed anyone else for 2010 besides Jose Bautista?

    That could prove to be interesting if not informative!

    Comment by chri521 — January 13, 2011 @ 3:54 pm

  3. CHRI521, Matt Diaz would’ve been another pre-2010 candidate besides Bautista (12% career, 27% SEP09.) And, I believe, the ONLY other one that meets the above criteria.

    Comment by Mario Mendoza — January 13, 2011 @ 4:27 pm

  4. What Zobrist and Bautista have in common is a high OBP (particularly in the minors), meaning that they have exceptional pitch selection. Both have low swing rates and high contact rates of the balls they do swing at.

    That’s is the reason that I predicted a “breakout Bautista” for 2009-10 on this site (end of comment).

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-pirates-plunder-toronto/

    They differ somewhat in that Zobrist hits more ground balls (for average) and Bautista more fly balls (for home runs). But neither of them hit many line drives, meaning that they have to make the most of the balls they do hit.

    Comment by tom au — January 13, 2011 @ 4:39 pm

  5. If Mike Morse does break out, then maybe he’ll stop being best known for having been suspended twice for using PEDs once.

    It’s a strange story. Look it up.

    Comment by Llewdor — January 13, 2011 @ 5:13 pm

  6. look at jay bruce and his hr totals and hr/fb rates for august/sept vs the rest of the season. sort of an established power, but could be due for even more of a breakout.

    Comment by dutchbrowncoat — January 20, 2011 @ 3:05 pm

  7. I’m not sure how much of a chance Bryce Harper has to reach the majors in his first pro season at the age of 18. No generational talent ever accomplished that. Not J. Upton, not A-Rod, not Andruw or Chipper Jones, not Griffey. Be ecstatic if he reaches Double-A.

    Comment by slamcactus — January 23, 2011 @ 1:40 pm

  8. Bautista totally changed his approach/swing, beginning it much earlier, I believe. I don’t know about Zobrist.

    *Matt Diaz probably batted against a high % of lefties to produce those numbers. I don’t know this, but it seems more than likely to me.

    Comment by Dave P — February 13, 2011 @ 12:30 pm

  9. Logan Morrison for 2012?

    HR/FB ratio = 35.7 last September.

    His best position is “batter” (like Morse and Bautista). No playing time issues for LoMo though.

    Certainly has outstanding OBP history and even better plate discipline numbers than Morse or Bautista.

    His career GB/FB ratio is a tad higher than Morse’s (1.41 vs 1.31). That could temper the upside for a power breakout. Joey Bats is down at 0.84 lifetime now… which of course maximizes the utility of the high HR/FB ratio. Jose was usually around 1.0 before his breakout. The last two seasons, he is at 0.57 and 0.79.

    BTW. Thanks for the great post Lewie!

    Comment by Dave S — December 31, 2011 @ 8:51 am

  10. Actually, I think Chris Heisey is a better fit to the OP’s criteria.

    Comment by Dave S — January 11, 2012 @ 2:03 pm

  11. Nice call on Morse. Soooo.. who’s it gonna be this year?

    Comment by Benjamin — January 22, 2012 @ 3:32 pm

  12. Shelley Duncan?

    Comment by Benjamin — January 23, 2012 @ 9:52 pm

  13. It would appear that there are a couple options for the 2012 version….

    Wilson Betemit – Career HR/FB of 14%; Sept HR/FB of 33.3%…. 2.5x his career mark

    Allen Craig – Career 15.8%; Sept 38.5%

    Craig Gentry – Career 2.3%; Sept 33.3%

    Chris Heisy – Career 16.3%; Sept 30%

    Jose Lopez – Career 7.4%; Sept 30%

    and my favorite pick….. Brent Morel – Career 10.1%; Sept 29.6% (He blasted 8 HR in September – Tied for 4th Most in Sept 2011)

    Comment by tenags — February 28, 2012 @ 2:59 pm

  14. Mr. Pollis did indeed go with Morel.

    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/2/23/2816075/the-next-next-jose-bautista

    Comment by Dave S — February 28, 2012 @ 3:38 pm

  15. Chris Davis.

    Comment by Cat — May 31, 2013 @ 12:12 pm

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