Analyzing the FanGraphs’ Mock Draft from an Outsider’s Point of View – OF (part 2)

As an avid reader of FanGraphs, I’ve been following the ongoing mock draft and thought it would be interesting to compare the results to the dollar value rankings I created using Steamer’s 2015 projections.

UPDATE: I downloaded the chat spreadsheet and the following commentary is up through the middle of the 21^st round, pick #249 (Rick Porcello). Here is a breakdown, position-by-position. I’ve included the overall pick and the dollar value for that player based on 2015 Steamer projections in parentheses.

Outfield—part 2

In part 1, I looked at the twenty outfielders who were taken among the first 56 picks in the FanGraphs Mock Draft. This section covers the next 20 outfielders drafted, starting with round 6.

Four outfielders were taken in the 6^th round of the FanGraphs Mock, with Jason Heyward (62^nd–$20) going off the board early in the round. Steamer is projecting a significant increase in home runs for Heyward, from 11 last year to 20 in 2015. In his five-year career, Heyward has hit 20 or more homers just once, back in 2012. While Steamer likes Heyward to almost double his homer total from a year ago, the same is not true for the next outfielder drafted—Nelson Cruz (66^th–$15). Steamer projects a drop from 40 homers last year to 26 this year as Cruz moves from Baltimore to Seattle. This also comes with more than 100 fewer plate appearances, which contributes to a drop in his projection for runs (from 87 to 70) and RBI (from 108 to 80). He’s also projected for a drop in batting average (from .271 to .249). Christian Yelich (67^th–$18) was taken with the next pick. He’s projected to increase his homer total from 9 to 14 and maintain his base-stealing ability, but with a drop in batting average. Finally, on the very next pick the choice was Yoenis Cespedes (68^th–$23), who was the 24^th outfielder taken in this mock draft but is ranked 12^th among outfielders based on Steamer projections.

With these four outfielders, I could see very different opinions among fantasy owners. Do you believe in Nelson Cruz more than Steamer does? Do you think Heyward can hit 20 homers or Yelich can hit 14? How will Cespedes hit in Detroit? Steamer would rank them Cespedes, Heyward, Yelich, and Cruz. Your mileage may vary.

The 7^th round saw two outfielders on different career trajectories. Young Mookie Betts (will be 22 this year) had a good 52-game stretch last year but plays for the Red Sox who have a packed outfield at the moment. Steamer currently has Betts (73^rd—[-$1]) projected for 389 plate appearances, which gives him negative value despite a good batting line. Later in the 7^th round, 35-year-old Matt Holliday (80^th—$19) was taken. Steamer projects Holliday to have a similar season in 2015 as he had in 2014, but with 40 fewer at-bats, along with fewer runs scored and RBI. When it comes to drafting Betts before Holliday, you have to believe Betts will get regular playing time. Holliday has had 600 or more plate appearances in eight of the last nine years, so he’s much more of a sure thing.

Seven more outfielders were taken over a span of 16 picks in rounds 8 and 9. Here are their projections for 2015:

593 AB, 82 R, 16 HR, 64 RBI, 22 SB, .274 AVG—Charlie Blackmon (87^th–$22)

573 AB, 80 R, 18 HR, 72 RBI, 9 SB, .270 AVG—Alex Gordon (89^th–$18)

574 AB, 82 R, 20 HR, 68 RBI, 9 SB, .263 AVG—Kole Calhoun (90^th–$17)

524 AB, 78 R, 18 HR, 73 RBI, 7 SB, .285 AVG—Jayson Werth (95^th–$20)

496 AB, 64 R, 24 HR, 72 RBI, 8 SB, .239 AVG—Jay Bruce (98^th–$8)

565 AB, 66 R, 22 HR, 76 RBI, 4 SB, .255 AVG—Marcell Ozuna (100^th–$11)

555 AB, 76 R, 14 HR, 66 RBI, 6 SB, .288 AVG—Melky Cabrera (102^nd–$15)

These projections (and this mock draft) are from before it was announced that Jayson Werth had surgery on the AC joint in his shoulder. He may not reach 524 at-bats in 2015, but the injury is not expected to keep him out for too long.

Of this group of seven outfielders, Blackmon’s projected steals and otherwise solid numbers make him more valuable than the rest. Alex Gordon, Kole Calhoun, and Jayson Werth are similarly valued. You could go for the upside play with the younger Calhoun or the steadiness of veteran Alex Gordon.

The next three outfielders don’t project to be as valuable as the top group, but there’s enough variation possible that they could get to that level. Jay Bruce had the worst year of his career in 2014, hitting just .217/.281/.373. Taking him in the 9^th round is hoping for a bounce back season. Marcell Ozuna is six years younger and will likely hit for more power with a lower batting average than Melky Cabrera, so I could see an argument for taking him before the Melk-Man.

In the 10^th round, three more outfielders went off the board. Before last season, Shin-Soo Choo (110^th–$16) was a hot commodity coming off a 20-20 season with a .285/.423/.462 batting line and moving to a great hitter’s park in Texas. Unfortunately, he was a big disappointment. He played just 123 games and hit .242/.340/.374. He’ll be 32 in 2015 and Steamer likes him to rebound, but not to anything close to that 2013 season. Wil Myers (113^th–$2) isn’t a favorite of Steamer but he has youth on his side and a good pedigree and could easily beat his projection. Jorge Soler (117^th–$13) played at four levels last season. He had just 8 games in the Rookie league, then destroyed AA (.415/.494/.862 in 22 games), continued to hit well in AAA (.282/.378/.618 in 32 games) and kept it up with the Cubs in the big leagues (.292/.330/.573 in 24 games). He’s only 23 years old and has a nice projection for 2015. I’d be inclined to take him over Myers and Choo, just for the upside.

The next four outfielders taken, from pick 122 to pick 143, includes two players who do not have Steamer projections. Rusney Castillo is one of those, taken with pick #122. His playing time is in question because of the Red Sox outfield logjam, but the Sox signed him for six years and $72 million last August, so he should get a chance to play. I do have projections from Cairo and Davenport for Castillo. Averaging Castillo’s projections from Cairo and Davenport, we get 241 at-bats, with a .279/.325/.429 batting line, 6 homers, and 8 steals. If you double that line to approximate a full season, he would be worth $10 and be the #40 outfielder. He was taken 37^th among outfielders in this mock draft.

Brett Gardner (136^th–$11) was taken 14 picks after Castillo. Early in his career, Gardner had back-to-back seasons with 47 and 49 steals. He’s more of a 20-steals guy these days, but did just have a big homer year, hitting a career-high 17 in 2014. Steamer expects a drop to 12 homers in 2015, with the rest of his numbers being very similar to last year.

Taken shortly after Gardner was Ben Revere (142^nd–$8). Revere will steal you plenty of bases (49 last year), but his RBI output is reminiscent of Rob Picciolo. Revere went the first three-plus years of his career without hitting a home run, then muscled up for two long balls last year. This is his age-27 season and Steamer is expecting a career-high of three dingers in 2015. I would take the under on that projection.

The fourth player taken in this group was Yasmany Tomas. Steamer has nothing to work with here. Tomas was signed by the Diamondbacks in December to a six-year, $68.5 million deal. He could play third base or the outfield and is expected to hit for power after hitting 30 home runs in 205 regular-season games in Cuba, going back to 2008.

In part 3: the next 20 outfielders drafted.