Coming up with BERA… like its [almost] namesake might say, it was 90% mental, and the other half was physical. OK, maybe he’d say something more along the lines of “what the hell is this…” but that’s beside the point. By BERA, I mean BABIP-estimating ERA (or something like that… maybe one of you can come up with something fancier). It’s an ERA estimator that’s along the lines of SIERA, only it’s simpler, and—dare I say—better.
You know, I started out not knowing where I was going, so I was worried I might not get there. As you may recall, I’ve been pondering pitcher BABIPs for a little while here (see article 1 and article 2), and whereas my focus thus far had been on explaining big-picture, long-term BABIP stuff in terms of batted ball data, one question that remained was how well this info could be used to predict future BABIPs. After monkeying around with answering that question, though, I saw that SIERA’s BABIP component could be improved upon, so I set to work in coming up with BERA. In doing so, I definitely piggybacked off of FIP and a little of what SIERA had already done. You can observe a lot just by watching, you know. I’m also a believer in “less is more” (except for when it comes to the size of my articles, obviously), so I tried to go for the best compromise of simplicity and accuracy that I could.