Dellin Betances’s Jedi Mind Tricks

Before his June 6th appearance, Dellin Betances had thrown his knuckle curve 255 times, and it had amassed a value of 8 runs above average(according to FanGraphs), but that is not the point of this post. Betances throws the knuckle curve a lot (48% of the time), batters can’t hit it (74% zone contact, 20% out of zone contact!, for a total contact rate of 42%), and when they do it’s very weakly (15% line drives, 55% ground balls, 10% popups, 0 home runs). It’s impressive  but not what I’m interested in.

Here’s a hint, in gif form

DBKC

Batters take the pitch for a called strike all the time. They swing at the curve in the strike zone a measly 29.3% of the time. This is where it gets really crazy, they swing at it out of the strike zone 36% of the time! I’ll let that sink in. This may sound hyperbolic (it’s actually hypergeometric) but a literal blind person would be expected to do better than these pros have.  There is an 83.96% chance swinging at random would beat current major league performance.

For a little math aside, you can think of this like one of those marble problems. You have a jar filled with 116 red marbles (pitches in the strike zone) and 139 green marbles (pitches outside the zone), and you pick 84 (swing at) at random. What are the chances that out of the 84 marble you chose more than 34 are red (in the strike zone)?  You can determine the probability of picking more than 34 red marbles using a hypergeometric distribution.

How is it even possible to make major league players look so confounded (see gif above)?

The worst approach at the plate (other than sabotaging yourself) is just swinging at random.  There is an 84% chance that the approach of  these players is worse than random. A possible explanation is hitters are actually trying to swing at more of the pitches outside the strike zone. This sounds like a really stupid strategy, because it is. The only reason hitters should do this is if they were able to crush the knuckle curve when it’s outside the strike zone. Hitters haven’t crushed any of the knuckle curves (an anemic .029 ISO), and they are barely ever hitting it when it’s outside the zone. It makes you wonder if Betances is using Jedi mind tricks.

draft4

Assuming that Betances is not a Jedi (if he was wouldn’t he use his powers on his fastball as well?), then something else has to be going on. From the batter’s reaction you can tell that the batter thought the pitch was going to hit him. So, maybe the batters are just so worried about the 95MPH heater that they are getting surprised by the knuckle curve? Still Betances threw the pitch 48% of the time; it’s not a surprise pitch.  Whatever it Betances is doing is definitely making hitters look dumbfounded. I don’t know of any other pitch that gets a higher swing rate out of the zone than in it (if you can think of a pitch that gets more swings out of the zone than in leave it in the comments).

Thanks to Pitcher Gifs for this great gif.

Also and unrelated useless fact, hitter have exactly a .000 wOBA on plate appearances ending with DB’s knuckle curve.

This is definitely something to keep an eye on and look into further.  What makes a pitch look like a ball to the batter when its in the strike zone and look like its going to be a strike when it is out of the zone. This is the only pitch I know of that can do both.

I challenge any reader to find a pitch thrown more than 200 times that has a higher O-Swing% than Z-swing%, and leave the name of the pitcher and the pitch in the comments.

All stats are from FanGraphs PITCHf/x

This article was originally posted at GWRamblings.




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George is always thinking about baseball, and frequently writes down those thoughts on his blog. Follow him on Twitter @GWRambling.


6 Responses to “Dellin Betances’s Jedi Mind Tricks”

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  1. Robert says:

    Will Smith’s slider is at 44.5% O-Swing and 40.4% Z-Swing this year, but not quite at your 200 pitches cutoff (166).

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    • GWR says:

      For Will Smith’s Slider the the chance of doing better by just swinging at random is 66%. very good
      (168 pitches 47 in the strike zone, 74 pitches swung at of which 19 were in the zone)

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  2. Steven says:

    Jean Machi’s forkball is at 46.7% O-Swing and 21.0 Z-Swing this year, but only through 87 pitches.

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    • Steven says:

      Also, his screwball (which may be misclassified) is at 25% O-Swing and 0% Z-Swing through 16 pitches.

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  3. GWR says:

    Where are you getting these numbers for Jean Machi. When I checked his page on fangraphs it does not show him throwing either a forkball or a screwball. If i had his zone% for those pitches allong with the z-swing% and oz-swing% i could tell you how well you could do swinging at random.

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  4. Aj Grands says:

    I once tried to calculate, for fun, which pitcher was most effective at, as you put it,”Jedi-Mind Tricking”, ie, getting batters to swing outside the zone and take inside the zone. Unfortunately, my computer got wiped and I lost everything, but I remember it was Chris Sale who came out on top

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