What Types of Hitters Have Large Platoon Splits?

Big-league teams today employ a myriad of data-driven strategies to eek every last drop of value from the players on their rosters. Many of these strategies consist of matching up hitters and pitchers based on their handedness. Between lineup platoons and highly-specialized bullpens, managers today go to great lengths to ensure they’re putting their players in the best possible situation to succeed.

It’s easy to see why. With very few exceptions, Major League hitters hit much better against opposite-handed pitching. In terms of wOBA (vs. opposite-handed – vs. same-handed), lefties perform about .031 better against righties, while righties hit .043 better against lefties. Yet not all platoon splits are created equal. Players like Shin-Soo Choo, David Wright, and Jonny Gomes are notorious for their drastic splits, while others put up comparable numbers no matter who’s on the mound. Ichiro Suzuki and Alex Rodriguez are a couple of the no-platoon-split poster boys.

Ok, so some batters have bigger platoon splits than others, but is there any particular reason for this? Take Choo for example. Is there something inherent to his skill set or approach that causes him to struggle against lefties?

Hoping to find an answer, I ran some regressions in search of attributes that might make a player more likely to have an exaggerated platoon split. I tested all sorts of things out there — from walk rate and swing% to a player’s height and throwing arm — but didn’t come away with much. Aside from a hitter’s handedness, attributes that proved statistically significant included: a hitter’s overall wOBA, his line drive rate, his strikeout rate, and his contact rate on pitches out of the zone, but even those relationships are extremely weak. It takes .100 points on a batter’s wOBA, or a 10% increase in K% or LD%, to move a batter’s platoon split by just .010 points. This tells us something, but not a ton, and at the end of the day, these variables account for a nearly negligible 4% of the variation in hitters’ platoon splits. Here’s the resulting R output. My sample included all batter seasons from 2007-2013 with at least 100 plate appearances against both lefties and righties, excluding switch hitters:

Platoons

Good hitters or guys who strike out frequently might be a little more prone to having large platoon splits. But for all practical purposes, a player’s ability to hit one type of pitching better than the other seems to be a skill that’s independent of all others. Aside from going by a player’s platoon stats, which can take years to become reliable, there’s little we can do to anticipate which hitters might fare particularly bad against same-handed pitching. And with the exception of players with long track records of unusual platoon splits — like Choo and Ichiro — it’s generally safe to assume that any given hitter’s true-talent platoon split is within shouting distance of the average: .043 for lefties and .031 for righties.



Print This Post

Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.


Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
dsteinberg100
Member
dsteinberg100

Have you ever heard of the texas sharp shooter fallacy? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_sharpshooter_fallacy

I think your results make a lot of sense, because really why would one hitter have larger platoon skill relative to their own overall skill compared to another hitter? If platoon splits are really about seeing the ball better, it doesn’t seem like there’s going to be a whole lot off difference here. It’s possible that attributes that involve seeing the ball better (maybe hitter height or stance angle?) could make a difference?

I’m beginning to think that all large platoon splits over large samples are luck related. I don’t think sorting a list of a 100 players and seeing the ones with the biggest platoon splits is a viable way of testing who has the most platoon skill.

Mr Punch
Guest
Mr Punch

If (as some argue) players generally learn to switch-hit because they can’t, in their natural stance, see certain pitches from opposite-handed pitchers, then switch-hitters ought to share the characteristics of hitters with extreme splits. I can’t see that they do; but they should.

Paul Mammino
Member

Did you look into how a batters spray charts factor into their platoon split? It makes sense in theory that players who pull the ball more frequently would have larger platoon splits as they would have a more difficult time with a breaking pitch that moves away from them.

dsteinberg100
Member
dsteinberg100

Although research has found that two seams have just as large platoons as sliders despite the fact they break in the opposite direction. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/split/

I do like this idea though. Chris, the splits tab on fangraphs has that data.

wpDiscuz