The Game: Baseball
2017 Pre-Season Projections
2017 600 PA / 200 IP Projections
2017 Updated In-Season Projections
Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball
Win Probability & Box Scores
2017 Projected Standings
2017 Playoff Odds
Playoff Odds Graphs
2017 Free Agent Tracker!
Minor League Leaders
Combined WAR Leaderboards
League Average Heatmaps
Team Batting Stats
Team Pitching Stats
Team WAR Totals (RoS)
Team Depth Charts
Positional Depth Charts
Upcoming FanGraphs Events
- March 5th, 2017
- April 6th, 2017
- April 17th, 2017
- May 15th, 2017
K% & BB%
K/9 & BB/9
TZ & TZL
Park Factors by Handedness
Help Support FanGraphs
Become a Member
Already a member?
6/6/1977 (39 y, 9 m, 20 d)
1999 June Amateur Draft - Round: 9, Pick: 7, Overall: 271, Team: Kansas City Royals
$5.2M / 1 Years (2014)
Ellis is retiring from baseball after 12 seasons, The San Francisco Chronicle reports. (2/25/2015)
Kolten Wong: Quietly Fantasy-Relevant
Scott Strandberg (RotoGraphs)
The Cardinals, Mark Ellis, and Depth
Matt Klaassen (FanGraphs)
Dodgers Sign Cuban Alex Guerrero For Second Base
Eno Sarris (FanGraphs)
Contract Crowdsourcing 2013-14: Mark Ellis
Carson Cistulli (FanGraphs)
The Unsung Heroes of the Dodgers Crazy Run
Dave Cameron (FanGraphs)
(Click Year to Expand /
Year in Review:
The Athletics paid Mark Ellis well prior to the 2009 season, as he received an $11 million extension to cover 2009 and 2010. He defines the newest market inefficiency of the undervalued, excellent defender. The reason he remains undervalued is his underwhelming bat. The 2009 season was a slight down year for Ellis, as his walk rate dropped from a career mark above 9.0% down to 5.8%. That drop, combined with a slightly-low BABIP of .284, led to a .310 wOBA for Ellis, his lowest since 2003. His defense didn’t grade as stellar as we have seen in previous years, but it was still above average (+1.7 UZR) and, given the small sample, we should defer to his tremendous career UZR/150 of +8.1.
The Year Ahead:
Ellis’s 2009 season was abbreviated due to a calf injury, but his precipitous drop in walk rate is a red flag. Much of his offensive production comes from his ability to reach base via the walk. His power numbers have never been above average and his ability to reach base via the batted ball is unremarkable. We should expect an uptick in walks from 2009, but not nearly as high as the 10.7% walk rate we saw in 2008. He will probably draw a below-average amount of walks, leaving him as a slightly below-average hitter overall. This will probably lead to an increase in runs scored from 2009, as well, assuming no major changes come to the A’s lineup. Don’t expect much change in power numbers for Ellis: 10-15 homers and 50-75 RBI are the norm from him and there’s no reason to forecast any major changes in that department. (Jack Moore)
Last year was another Mark Ellis year for Mark Ellis in Oakland. Like many of his A's compatriots, he missed time with injuries, playing in 124 games. Ellis has only played more than 130 games twice in his career, a observation that may be hidden by the fact that he's so reliable when he's actually on the field. Ellis's calling card is his steady 2B glove, and in 2010 he committed only three errors for a very Mark Ellis-like .995 fielding percentage. At the plate, his .291 batting average would have placed second among AL second baseman had he qualified for the batting title, and his .358 OBP was his best since 2005. He did lack his Mark Ellis-y middle-infield pop, though, failing to reach a double-digit home-run total for the first time since 2003. At age 33, we should know what to expect from Ellis: about 125 games played, a .265-.275 BA, 10-12 HR, 50 or 60 runs and RBI, and maybe a handful of steals. (Patrick Newman)
The Quick Opinion:
At this point, we know what we're going to get from Mark Ellis.
It was not that long ago that Ellis was a darling on the sabermetric set for his acceptable bat and spectacular second base defense. However, defense does not matter in fantasy, his bat has gotten worse, and now he's old and gets hurt every season. He is going to get playing time to start, so that counts for something, but do not count on more than 500 plate appearances at best. Hey, there are deep leagues out there, and all of them require you to start a second baseman. Just pay accordingly for a guy likely to hit something .260/.300/.350 with no steals. (Matt Klaasen)
The Quick Opinion:
If you squint hard enough, you can almost justify Ellis' contract with the Dodgers. Considerably more squinting is required to justify relying on him as anything more than a desparation move in fantasy.
It's too bad for Mark Ellis that they don't factor defense into fantasy baseball, because he'd be a star. As it is, he was able to rebound from a horrible 2011 (.282 wOBA, even though he spent half the season in Colorado) with a .312 wOBA that was just below his career average. As second basemen go, he's almost exactly
, though the days of double-digit steals & homers seem long ago. More concerning are his continued injury woes, especially because he got on base far better in 37 games before leg surgery in 2012 (.273/.373/.364) than he did in in 73 games after returning in July (.251/.314/.364). At 36 in 2013, Ellis' best days are behind him. (
The Quick Opinion:
This aging second baseman is far more valuable because of his glove than his bat, but showed improvement over a lousy 2011.
The current version of Mark Ellis is perhaps the most consistent player in baseball. He'll hit between five and seven homers, put up an average in the .250-.280 range, play solid defense, and miss at least a few weeks every single year with a leg injury. For St. Louis, that's a great insurance policy for young Kolten Wong, but since defense is why he exists, it's not all that useful in the fantasy world. At 37, he might have another year or two of value left in him -- at least until the next leg injury -- but he's waiver-wire fodder at best for fantasy teams.
The Quick Opinion:
Ever since he stopped hitting double-digit homers on a regular basis, Ellis has been much more useful in the real world than fantasy, and that's not going to change at 37.
Mark Ellis has been a solid backup and platoon option at second base in recent seasons, but knee and oblique injuries and the emergence of Kolten Wong in St. Louis limited Ellis to a career-low 202 plate appearances, no home runs, and a .180 batting average in 2014. He is currently a free agent, and while his glove should be enough to land him a roster spot with a big league team, the days of 400-plus plate appearances are probably now behind the 37-year-old Ellis. He has no value in fantasy. (Scott Spratt)
The Quick Opinion:
Ellis has had a nice career, but at 37 years old, his best days are likely behind him. Wherever he lands in 2015, he will have little fantasy value.
If you would like to make a projection for this player, please
Updated: Sunday, March 26, 2017 3:37 AM ET
Terms of Service
All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Baseball Info Solutions.
All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman.
FOX Sports Engage Network Partner
All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com
All minor league baseball data provided by Major League Baseball Advanced Media as distributed by STATS.
Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet.