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11/30/1980 (36 y, 3 m, 23 d)
2004 Rule 5 Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 7, Overall: 7, Team: Philadelphia Phillies
$39M / 3 Years (2013 - 2015)
Victorino has put plans to sign a minor league contract on hold after he had surgery to remove a cyst under his arm, the Boston Globe reports. (2/5/2017)
Contract Crowdsourcing 2015-16: Day 8 of 15
Carson Cistulli (FanGraphs)
Angels Pick Up Used But Functional Shane Victorino
Jeff Sullivan (FanGraphs)
Saunders and the Gang: Late Value in the Outfield
Adam McFadden (RotoGraphs)
The Boston Outfield: An Embarrassment of Riches
Eno Sarris (RotoGraphs)
MASH Report (12/15/14)
Jeff Zimmerman (RotoGraphs)
(Click Year to Expand /
Year in Review:
Victorino is considered by some to be a valuable defensive player (UZR does not agree) who won his second straight Gold Glove in 2009. However, that isn't of much help in fantasy league play. Fortunately, he's not a one-trick pony. The 29-year-old outfielder has averaged a .292 batting average over the past two seasons while providing 25+ stolen bases each season. Add in the fact that he also provides 100+ runs scored and 10+ homers, and you have yourself a solid fantasy outfielder. With more patience at the plate (8.8% BB), Victorino could score even more runs with all the big boppers behind him.
The Year Ahead:
The Phillies lineup should remained stacked with run producers in 2010, so Victorino should continue to score a lot of runs, as long as he continues to get on base at a reasonable clip. That will require a good batting average and there is no reason to suspect that Victorino will nose dive in that category any time soon; he's sustained very reasonable BABIPs over the past two seasons at .314 and .317. One negative trend that is more than a little disconcerting is the three-year decrease in stolen bases (37 to 36 to 25), as well as the decrease in his stolen base success rate (90% to 77% to 75%). Victorino's playing time has increased each year during that time frame, so it would be nice to see the trend reverse itself. (Marc Hulet)
In the first year of his three-year extension with the Phillies, Victorino had a mixed but mostly successful campaign, setting career highs in both homers and strikeouts. His batting average on balls in play fell by 42 points, precipitating a 33-point drop in batting average; while his RBIs increased by seven, his runs scored fell by 18. He spent half the year as the leadoff hitter, filling in for an injured Jimmy Rollins, and liked it there, with an .810 OPS in the leadoff spot and just .678 in all other spots in the order. His batting average and OBP are likely to climb to normal levels next year as his BABIP returns to its usual levels. But his power may have topped out. His home runs went an average distance of 376 feet, and six of his 18 homers last year were classified by Greg Rybarczyk as "Just Enough." He has enough power to pull a mistake over the fence, but he probably won't hit 18 again next year. He could certainly repeat for 15 homers and 30 steals, though it’s not clear whether the Werth-less Phillies can drive him in a hundred times. (Alex Remington)
The Quick Opinion:
He could certainly repeat for 15 homers and 30 steals, though it’s not clear whether the Werth-less Phillies can drive him in a hundred times.
By WAR, Victorino was the best field player on the Phillies by a considerable amount, compiling a figure of 5.9 to Chase Utley's next-best total of 3.9. It was the best season of his career, the result of a career-best walk rate (9.4%), career-best home-run rate (2.9% of all plate appearances), excellent strikeout rate (10.8%), decent BABIP, and above-average UZR (+4.4) at a challenging position. In standard fantasy leagues, where defense is immaterial and center fielders belong just under the umbrella of Outfield, Victorino was a bit less valuable. Nor is he likely to reach the same level of production in 2012: at age 31, Victorino is on the wrong side of the aging curve -- something that his deflated stolen-base total (19, after averaging 33 each of the previous four season) might already suggest. (Carson Cistulli)
The Quick Opinion:
Victorino is an excellent, and likely underrated, player in real baseball. Not all those skills translate to fantasy, and Victorino's age (31 in 2012) suggests he's reached his peak.
Shane Victorino started to see some decline last year, particularly in the power department. His .383 slugging percentage was a career low, as was his .310 wOBA. Much has been made about Victorino's big platoon split last year, and it is a cause for concern. He experienced a similar drop in performance in 2010, but was able to slug 11 home runs against righties that year. That number dropped last season, turning him into a below-average hitter against right-handers. Victorino is likely to see some improvement, perhaps boosting his average back to .270-.280, but the lack of power is concerning. The move to Fenway should help with that. (
The Quick Opinion:
The lack of power and a poor performance against righties were the first signs of Victorino's decline. He should see some improvement next season, but his peak seasons are likely behind him.
Victorino's first season in Boston was an odd one. He always seemed injured, saw his walk rate fall, and whiff rate climb -- yet he posted the second-best offensive season of his career. He, interestingly, ditched switch-hitting after a hamstring injury caused leg weakness. Batting exclusively from the right side, pitchers pounded the strike zone on him, but Victorino responded by posting a higher righty-on-righty isolated slugging percentage than his career mark from the same side versus southpaws. It might be better for the player (and his owners) if Shanf ditched switch-hitting for good, but it
sounds like that is not in the cards
. Depending on what the Red Sox do as they head into spring training, Victorino could be moving back to center field (he started 11 games and appeared in 15 there in 2013), which would be a nice boost to his value in fantasy leagues that separate the outfield positions. Either way, he's a high-floor, low-ceiling kind of guy once the top 20 outfielders come off the board. (
The Quick Opinion:
Victorino had an up-and-down 2013, partially marred by hamstring injuries and postseason strikeouts. His aggregate numbers were solid, however, placing him amongst the top-30 mixed league outfielders. While he lacks the upside of other guys who will be drafted around him, he should have a much higher floor, too.
According to Shane Victorino, his rehab is going great and he should be the starting right fielder for the Red Sox this year. To just about everyone else on the planet, he's a guy in his mid-30s who is recovering from back surgery and should be promised absolutely nothing this year. How those two views square will be entirely on Victorino. If he proves in spring training that he is healthy, it will be decision time for the Red Sox, who may be faced with the prospect of demoting or trading some of their other outfielders in order to accommodate Victorino. If Victorino is healthy, he could be a good late-round sleeper, but we won't know whether he will be or not until late March. The conservative bet would be to bank against such a development. Even if healthy, 34-year-olds with back problems aren't likely to steal a lot of bases, and in recent seasons, much of Victorino's value was tied to his ability to swipe 20 bags a year. He has never homered 20 times in a single season, and he has never hit .300 in a single season. Those are also unlikely to change. Victorino's upside then, figures to be a bench bat who occasionally gets starts if the pitching matchups are favorable for him to slot into your fantasy lineup. In other words, not someone you need to draft. (Paul Swydan)
The Quick Opinion:
Shane Victorino has brand-name recognition, but as a 34-year-old coming off of back surgery, he is not likely to provide brand-name production. Steer clear.
Gone are the days of Victorino being a durable fantasy asset, as seven straight years of 130-plus games (2006-'12) have given way to games-played totals of 122, 30 and 71 over the last three seasons. And while Victorino was still a viable everyday player in the first season of that stretch, he's combined to hit just .246/.306/.329 with just 16 extra-base hits over his last 101 games with the Red Sox and Angels. Basically, he's been indifferentiable from fellow outfielder Shane Robinson, who spent 2015 as the fourth outfielder for the Minnesota Twins. A free agent, Victorino will have to settle for a low base, heavily incentive-driven deal or maybe even a minor league contract heading into his age-35 season. There was a time where he could provide value "if healthy," but now it seems he's got two strikes against him in those respects. He might be done. (Brandon Warne)
The Quick Opinion:
Victorino won't have fantasy value wherever he lands, and his days as a big league regular appear to be over.
If you would like to make a projection for this player, please
Updated: Thursday, March 23, 2017 3:37 AM ET
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