The Game: Baseball
2017 Pre-Season Projections
2017 600 PA / 200 IP Projections
2017 Updated In-Season Projections
Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball
Win Probability & Box Scores
2017 Projected Standings
2017 Playoff Odds
Playoff Odds Graphs
2017 Free Agent Tracker!
Minor League Leaders
Combined WAR Leaderboards
League Average Heatmaps
Team Batting Stats
Team Pitching Stats
Team WAR Totals (RoS)
Team Depth Charts
Positional Depth Charts
Upcoming FanGraphs Events
- March 5th, 2017
- April 6th, 2017
- April 17th, 2017
- May 15th, 2017
K% & BB%
K/9 & BB/9
TZ & TZL
Park Factors by Handedness
Help Support FanGraphs
Become a Member
Already a member?
12/27/1981 (35 y, 3 m, 2 d)
2003 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 22, Overall: 22, Team: San Francisco Giants
$0.2M / 1 Years (2014)
Aardsma was released by the Blue Jays on Monday, Sportsnet reports. (5/24/2016)
Sunday Notes: Saber Seminar, Yelich, Shipley, Hoot»
David Laurila (FanGraphs)
Finding the Next Bargain Relievers
Eno Sarris (FanGraphs)
Assessing the Potential New Closers
Paul Sporer (RotoGraphs)
New York Yankees Bullpen: Depth Chart Discussion
Mike Axisa (RotoGraphs)
Sabathia, Pettitte Latest Victims of ALE Injury Bu»
Mike Axisa (FanGraphs)
(Click Year to Expand /
Year in Review:
Aardsma was acquired by the Mariners before the ’09 season and took over the closer’s role after Brandon Morrow faltered early on. In 42 chances, Aardsma racked up 38 saves, ranking him eighth in the Majors. Relying heavily on his fastball by throwing it 87% of the time, Aardsma struck out 80 batters in 71.1 innings. However, 34 walks and a ground-ball rate of just 25.3% leave some concerns going into 2010. Aardsma compiled a 2.52 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, both career bests. His 3.01 FIP is also the best of his career, but a fluky HR/FB rate of 4.2% makes him unlikely to repeat that number. Opponents hit only .196 against him and posted an OPS of .555.
The Year Ahead:
For the first time in his career, Aardsma will pitch for the same MLB team in two straight seasons, and he also will be holding down the closer’s role again in 2010. Safeco Field and the Mariners’ outfield defense will keep his value high, as will his strikeouts. With the Mariners attempting to put together another competitive team for the 2010 season, Aardsma is likely to get close to another 40 save opportunities. He isn’t likely to convert them at such a high rate again, but he will be successful enough to be a top-12 closer. His ERA is almost certain to rise, but if he can lower his walk rate, he will be a solid No. 1 closer on your roster; he’s more suitable as your second reliever off of the board. (Zach Sanders)
Heading into the off-season, it was essentially a foregone conclusion that the Mariners would trade David Aardsma. He has racked up solid save totals the last two years, but his shaky command and one pitch arsenal always left you feeling that he was something of a time bomb – eventually, hitters would stop swinging at his fastball out of the zone and let him self destruct. However, news broke in December that Aardsma would require surgery on the labrum in his hip, which nuked his trade value, and so he remains a member of the Mariners roster. He also remains one of the highest risk options for saves in baseball. He was already an implosion candidate before the injury, and now he’s going to get up speed in 2011 without a spring training to work out the kinks. If all these warning signs have you thinking buyer beware, you are a pretty smart individual. (Dave Cameron)
The Quick Opinion:
If he's healthy, you'll saves with a side helping of heart attacks. He might not be healthy. Discount heavily.
Following a successful 2009 and 2010, David Aardsma missed most of 2011 and 2012 due to injuries, derailing an unexpected story of somewhat late-found success. Now 32 and a free agent, someone will surely roll the dice that Aardsma can be better than his 4.31 ERA and 5.27 FIP from 2013 with the Mets. Considering those two years off, the biggest concern is a drop in strikeout rate, which simply has to stay high for Aardsma to avoid punishment for his heavy walk rate. He was throwing almost three miles an hour slower than he had before his two Tommy John surgeries, and there just isn’t enough evidence on players having two of those surgeries to reliably suggest his velocity could rebound. Wherever he signs, it’s unlikely Aardsma finds his way to a closer’s chair. (
The Quick Opinion:
David Aardsma emerged as a decent closer in 2009 and 2010 but two Tommy John surgeries later, his velocity is gone and his effectiveness waned. He'll find a home, but likely as a middle-inning guy.
If you would like to make a projection for this player, please
Updated: Tuesday, March 28, 2017 3:36 AM ET
Terms of Service
All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Baseball Info Solutions.
All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman.
FOX Sports Engage Network Partner
All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com
All minor league baseball data provided by Major League Baseball Advanced Media as distributed by STATS.
Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet.