The Game: Baseball
2017 Pre-Season Projections
2017 600 PA / 200 IP Projections
2017 Updated In-Season Projections
Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball
Win Probability & Box Scores
2017 Projected Standings
2016 Playoff Odds
Playoff Odds Graphs
2017 Free Agent Tracker!
Minor League Leaders
Combined WAR Leaderboards
League Average Heatmaps
Team Batting Stats
Team Pitching Stats
Team WAR Totals (RoS)
Team Depth Charts
Positional Depth Charts
K% & BB%
K/9 & BB/9
TZ & TZL
Park Factors by Handedness
Help Support FanGraphs
Become a Member
Already a member?
8/30/1980 (36 y, 5 m, 24 d)
$1.2M / 1 Years (2016)
Hernandez was designated for assignment by the Braves on Friday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports. (8/12/2016)
The Masahiro Tanaka of the National League
Dave Cameron (FanGraphs)
Roberto Hernandez Heads to the Land of Cheesesteak
Mike Podhorzer (RotoGraphs)
Phillies Grab Whatever Roberto Hernandez Is
Jeff Sullivan (FanGraphs)
Contract Crowdsourcing 2013-14: Roberto Hernandez
Carson Cistulli (FanGraphs)
Daily Fantasy Strategy – 7/3 – For Draftstreet
Blake Murphy (RotoGraphs)
(Click Year to Expand /
Year in Review:
Carmona continued his downward spiral from premium young pitcher to punching bag, complete with a demotion all the way to rookie ball. His strikeout rate rebounded somewhat, but that hardly mattered with Carmona still issuing more than five walks per nine frames. Name a stat, and odds are that it's trending in the wrong direction. Carmona's first-pitch strike percentage was well below the MLB average, as was his percentage of pitches within the strike zone. He continued to exhibit strong ground-ball tendencies, but not to the same extent as in years past: Carmona's GB/FB ratio dipped from nearly three-to-one in 2007 and 2008 to two-to-one in 2009. The 6’4’’ righty is still highly dependent upon his 93 mph sinker, but the pitch has lost all semblance of effectiveness. Per 100 pitches thrown, Carmona's sinker was about 2.2 runs below average. That was dead last among all starters.
The Year Ahead:
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Whether it be the massive increase in innings pitched between 2006 and 2007, a mechanical flaw, or something else, Carmona looks nothing like the turbo-sinker-toting starter who helped lead Cleveland to the ALCS a few years back. Though it would have sounded odd a couple of seasons ago, Carmona's best hope at picking up the pieces might involve a serious cut in sinker usage. His mid-80s slider and change-up actually posted positive run values while his go-to pitch was getting pummeled. Carmona might already be trying to make this change. He called on his sinker well over 80 percent of the time from April to June, but only in the low 60s percentage-wise from July to October. Fantasy owners shouldn't totally forget Carmona, but he has been toxic for two years now. He'll have to show something soon to become fantasy relevant once again. (David Golebiewski)
After two injury-ravaged seasons featuring walk rates north of five per nine innings pitched, Carmona stayed healthy, re-discovered his control and returned to fantasy relevance in 2010. Compared to the MLB average, Carmona's number of pitches thrown within the strike zone was 0.6% below average in 2008 and 6.7% below average in 2009. This past year, he was 3% above the big-league average. Avoiding so many hitter's counts, Carmona sliced his walk rate to 3.08 BB/9. He didn't punch out a lot of batters (5.31 K/9), but with good control and ample grounders (55.6 GB%) he posted a 4.39 expected FIP in well over 200 innings. You'll note that Carmona's xFIP is considerably higher than his actual 3.77 ERA -- odds are, he's not going to keep a BABIP in the mid-.280s (his career BABIP is .299), or surrender a homer a little over 8% of a team an opponent lifts the ball against him (career 10 HR/FB%). Still, it was a nice bounceback season, and he had three pitches working. Carmona's sinker was godawful in '08 and '09 (-1.18 runs per 100 pitches), but it was +0.16 runs/100 pitches in 2010, and his changeup (+1.10) and slider (+0.52) rated in well, too. (David Golebiewski)
The Quick Opinion:
Carmona is once again draftable, though he's not the same guy who burst on to the scene in 2007 -- his ground-ball rate doesn't sit in the mid-60s these days, and he doesn't have quite the same level of control. Owners should spend a pick expecting a low- to mid-fours ERA in 2011.
Carmona has been arguably the most consistently inconsistent pitcher in baseball the past few years. His FIP has ranged from 3.94 to 5.36, while his ERA has been as low as 3.06 and as high as 6.32 -- and the two have rarely moved in unison. Carmona's success is closely tied to his control. His lack of strikeouts and ground-ball-heavy approach means that if he walks too many hitters, runs tend to follow. Making matters worse, for a guy who gets ground balls 55% of the time, Carmona gives up an awful lot of home runs (1.05 HR/9 in 2011). The Indians continue to believe in Carmona, picking up his $7 million option for 2012, and you can expect him to be in the Indians rotation... once he gets back to the states. After being outed by the real Fausto Carmona's mother as Roberto Hernandez Heredia, he'll needto navigate some visa issues to return to the sates. Once he returns, his fantasy value will be limited. A lack of strikeouts, a high WHIP, and the hugely unpredictable ERA (which is likely to be at least 4.00) make it difficult to own Carmona/Heredia. (Chad Young)
The Quick Opinion:
Carmona has been an innings-eater for the Indians the last couple years, but he provides little in the way of fantasy value. No strikeouts, a high WHIP and a volatile ERA make him tough to own. Now that he's Roberto Hernandez Heredia, stay further away.
Hernandez was a topic of great contention among sabre-savvy fans during the 2014 season. He had a bloated 4.98 ERA through his 24 starts (142.2 innings), but he also had a career-high 17.3% strikeout rate and career-low 5.4% walk rate, resulting in a strong 3.65 SIERA. The Rays pushed Hernandez to use his change up a career-high 30%, but the change may have resulted in more hittable pitches crossing the plate. As a ground-ball pitcher, Hernandez has always had a higher-than-normal home run per fly ball rate, but for the second season in a row, it crossed into crazy territory with a 20.9% number. Did the increased change up usage result in more homers? It's hard to say, but in 2014, he'll have a chance to re-establish his innings-eater reputation with the Phillies. Consider Hernandez a buy low, low candidate because anything better than a 3.50 ERA over 180 IP would be a very pleasant surprise. (
The Quick Opinion:
Hernandez could very well develop into a decent innings eater with the Phillies, if he can maintain his strikeout- and walk-rate improvements from 2013. But he needs to resist the homer, which derailed his time in the Rays rotation. Consider Hernandez only when looking for low-risk, medium-reward types.
The right-hander formerly known as Fausto Carmona split time between the Phillies and Dodgers in 2014, coming over to Los Angeles in an August trade. Hernandez, 34, managed to produce a 3.87 ERA during his stint in the City of Brotherly Love despite unfavorable peripherals, but whatever luck he had ran out upon going west, where he was tattooed with a 4.74 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in nine starts. The ground ball ways for which he’s been known over the years stayed intact, evidenced by a 49.7% rate, but coming off a season in which he set a new career high for strikeout percentage, he lost an entire punchout per nine innings thanks in part to losing a full mile off his average fastball velocity. Meanwhile, his first-pitch strike rate slipped more than six percentage points after climbing for three straight seasons, and the subsequent rise in his walk rate conspired to leave him with an abhorrent 4.4 strikeout-minus-walk percentage, dead last among qualified starters. In case you didn’t think things could get worse, all this was based on a .266 batting average on balls in play, well below his career norm and just a little more foreboding for 2015 given the other hints of a declining skill set. (
Karl de Vries
The Quick Opinion:
Hernandez, a free agent entering the offseason, had not signed with a team as of this writing, but even with a rotation spot in 2015, he likely won’t have much value beyond mono leagues.
The Astros picked up Roberto Hernandez to serve as a body with a functional throwing arm while they spent their time developing young talent for the future. Then, the future came early, and Hernandez found himself cast aside as young and talented pitchers took over his spot in the rotation, and then in the bullpen. Hernandez brings that one-two punch of having very poor strikeout numbers and pedestrian ground ball ratios, which was -- in fairness -- good enough to land him a minor league deal with Toronto. Hernandez is the baseball equivalent of a seat filler at the Oscars. He's fine in a wide shot, but it gets dicey should the camera zoom in close. (David Temple)
The Quick Opinion:
Roberto Hernandez is a group of soggy chips at the bottom of a Chipotle bag. He's the last half of Steve Martin's acting career. He's baking soda. He's a smartphone app that only tells you how pointless it is. Please don't draft Roberto Hernandez.
If you would like to make a projection for this player, please
Updated: Thursday, February 23, 2017 3:33 AM ET
Terms of Service
All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Baseball Info Solutions.
All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman.
FOX Sports Engage Network Partner
All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com
All minor league baseball data provided by Major League Baseball Advanced Media as distributed by STATS.
Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet.