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1/27/1983 (34 y, 27 d)
2001 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 4, Overall: 4, Team: Philadelphia Phillies
$1M / 1 Years (2016)
Floyd says he's still not fully recovered from the strained shoulder that ended his 2016 season in June, John Lott reports. (2/22/2017)
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(Click Year to Expand /
Year in Review:
One year after posting superficially good numbers thanks to a .268 BABIP, Floyd showed across the board improvement in his peripherals in 2009. His K/9 rose over a full strikeout to 7.62 while his BB/9 dropped to 2.75, which resulted in a career-best 2.76 K/BB. Floyd threw more ground balls in 2009, so while his HR/FB rate basically held steady, his HR/9 dropped 33 points. It all added up to a FIP of 3.77, a run lower than the year before and a personal best. Floyd threw more sliders and fewer fastballs in 2009 and ended up with better results from both pitches. He established a career best with a 27.5% O-Swing% and finished 16th in the Majors with a 53.9% O-Contact%. It all added up to being worth 4.5 wins above replacement (WAR), nearly double (2.4) what he posted the previous year.
The Year Ahead:
Statistically, Floyd was a much better pitcher in 2009 than he was in 2008. However, that did not translate into being a more valuable fantasy hurler. Floyd lost six wins and saw his ERA rise 22 points in 2009. This made him an unlucky pitcher in 2009 but may help hold his fantasy value down in 2010. Both his FIP and his K/BB rates indicate a top-30 pitcher. Floyd’s WHIP and Ks also rate him as a top-30 pitcher but he fell beneath that threshold last year because of his relatively poor win total and his slightly elevated ERA. With his peripherals, owners should expect more in the way of a 14-win season with a 3.75 ERA. Combine that with his established WHIP and strikeout levels and Floyd’s upside becomes a top-20 pitcher in 2010. (Brian Joura)
Gavin Floyd has performed relatively consistently since his 17-win season in 2008, maintaining around 180 innings-pitched a season with about a 4.00 ERA. Floyd increased the use of his slider and changeup following his successful 2008 season, leading to increased K rates (6.32 K/9 in 2008 to 7.25 K/9 in 2010). However, the win totals just haven’t been there since the White Sox last won the NL Central. Interesting things happened to batted balls off Floyd in 2010, so while he achieved a career-best FIP of 3.46 and HR rate of 0.67 per 9.0 IP, it was aided in part by a low HR/FB rate of 7.6%. An unusually high BABIP of .329 hurt the right-handed pitcher. A return to normal BABIP levels, confidence in strikeout numbers, and upside for the 28-year-old should push Floyd to a top-20 pitcher in 2011. The White Sox are early favorites for the 2011 AL Central crown, which loosely means more run support and win totals for Floyd. Expect 150 strikeouts, a 3.80 ERA, and a 1.25 WHIP for the right-handed hurler. (Albert Lyu)
The Quick Opinion:
Floyd has increased K rates and decreased HR rates since his 17-win season in 2008. His run support and win totals should return as the White Sox are early AL Central favorites.
The last three seasons, Gavin Floyd has been remarkably consistent. He has posted FIPs between 3.46 and 3.77, struck out between 7.02 and 7.60 per nine, and walked between 2.09 and 2.79 per nine. Over that time, his ERA has also consistently stayed higher than his FIP. In 2012, the most likely scenario is more of the same, although that ERA should come down a bit to fall more in line with his FIP. The issue Floyd has faced from a fantasy perspective (other than the ERAs hovering above his FIP) is a lack of wins. He has had 13 the past two years, and had only 11 and eight the two previous years. Floyd isn't likely to be a fantasy stud anytime soon, but if he can bring down the ERA and nab a couple more wins, he could provide solid value for a guy who should not cost much to get. (Chad Young)
The Quick Opinion:
With Floyd, you know what you will get -- about 7.3 strikeouts per nine, 2.5 walks per nine and an FIP around 3.60. If he can make his ERA match that FIP, he'll be a solid fantasy option in 2012.
Floyd's issues were not so much with where he was pitching as to whom he was pitching; lefties managed an .871 OPS against him and hit 16 of the 22 home runs he allowed. That continues a trend that has stayed steady over his whole career -- lefties have hit for a .341 wOBA, while righties haven't done as well (.309 wOBA). If there was a silver lining to Floyd's rough 2012, it is that his strikeout rate was his highest since 2009, but even that was marred by his highest walk rate since becoming a full-time starter. In fantasy terms, there's just not enough upside to brave the considerable WHIP downside that Floyd embodies. He'd have to be very cheap and you'd have to be in a deep league. Or maybe you can spot start him against a team devoid of lefty sluggers. (Dan Wade)
The Quick Opinion:
It would be tempting to blame Floyd's bloated home run rate on his home park, the notoriously hitter-friendly US Cellular Field, but he allowed just two more home runs at home than he did on the road. And that was over the course of nearly 100 more plate appearances in The Cell.
Floyd is about as boring as they come in fantasy. When healthy, he's capable of putting up an ERA in the low-fours, with acceptable, but not great, strikeout and walk numbers. Floyd underwent Tommy John surgery after just five starts in 2013, and wound up signing a one-year "prove it" deal with the Braves. The team expects him to be ready by May, which is aggressive, but not impossible. It will likely take Floyd some time to fully recover from the injury, making him a questionable fantasy pick. He was pretty average prior to the injury, so his value is even lower coming off surgery. Even with the move to the easier league. (
The Quick Opinion:
Floyd was average prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery. The team expects him to return by May, but it would be tough to expect him to be fully recovered by then.
Gavin Floyd was a pleasant surprise for the Braves this past season, albeit briefly. In nine starts he recorded a 2.65 ERA before he suffered a truly disgusting injury to his pitching elbow while on the mound. Despite how grotesque the injury to his olecranon was, he is expected to be ready to pitch at the start of the year. The Indians should be a quality squad next season so his win total could impress if he manages to stay healthy for the first time in three seasons. Prior to his Tommy John surgery in 2013, Floyd was a model of consistently boring performances. Last year he was pitching well, but not as good as his ERA suggested. The move back to the American League will likely see his ERA jump back up closer to his career norms. Even worse is that the Indians will probably have a very poor defense once again, which should only cause pitchers like Floyd to suffer even more, since he lacks high strikeout potential. There is too much risk and too little reward to rely on Floyd next season. He is pretty much guaranteed a spot out of spring, but the Indians have a lot of starting pitcher depth, and if he struggles he could be removed. As a backend pitcher with two serious elbow injuries the past two years, and pitching in the American League in front of a poor defense, Floyd is a guy to avoid on draft day. (Ben Duronio)
The Quick Opinion:
Floyd is expected to be healthy to start the year despite his grotesque elbow injury last year, but the combination of the bad defense behind him, the American League lineups he will face, and the last two seasons of being shut down with elbow problems makes him too risky an option for most fantasy leagues.
For about a five year run, from 2008-2012, Gavin Floyd was solid if unspectacular for the White Sox. He managed to put up not one but two four wins above replacement seasons in that time, and another 3.2 WAR season. But even then, playing in a bad pitching park, not getting many strike outs, and seemingly always posting ERAs worse than his peripherals would suggest, Floyd was not much of a fantasy player. Since then, Floyd has been unable to stay healthy, making just 14 starts and seven relief appearances over the next three seasons. Coming into 2016, Floyd has signed a deal with the Blue Jays, most likely to provide rotation depth. Steamer actually projects decent rates for Floyd -- a 3.66 ERA, 1.26 WHIP aren't going to win you many leagues, but they won't lose them either. The problem is there is no reason to think Floyd can still pitch in the majors. A handful of relief appearances, maybe a start or two, could be on the docket, but you won't get much more, and that is not worth rostering. (Chad Young)
The Quick Opinion:
Floyd was a workhorse for the White Sox for a few years there, but even at his best, his fantasy value was questionable. Now he can't stay healthy and doesn't have job.
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Updated: Thursday, February 23, 2017 3:33 AM ET
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