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5/27/1984 (32 y, 9 m, 1 d)
2008 Rule 5 Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 18, Overall: 18, Team: Boston Red Sox
$5.9M / 1 Years (2017)
Gonzalez signed a one-year, $5.9 million deal with the White Sox on Friday, avoiding arbitration. (1/13/2017)
Three Ways to Talk About Miguel Gonzalez
Jeff Sullivan (FanGraphs)
The Orioles' Frustrating Season
Paul Swydan (FanGraphs)
The Change: Standout Pitches
Eno Sarris (RotoGraphs)
Player's View: Kill the Win?
David Laurila (FanGraphs)
Roster Trending 9/8/14: Is the Juice Worth the Squ»
Mike Podhorzer (RotoGraphs)
(Click Year to Expand /
Gonzalez filled in nicely for a beat-up Orioles' starting rotation late in 2012. He provided great results -- nine wins and a 3.25 ERA. His ERA was over a point lower than his FIP (4.38), xFIP (4.63) and SIERA (4.40), though. A ~4.50 ERA puts a pitcher below-average compared to other starters, and even less useful in fantasy baseball. With his ERA and wins basically suspect, there is not much else to like. 6.5 strikeouts per nine is okay, but not when combined with three walks per nine. Basically, there is a reason the 29-year-old right-hander didn't debut until last season -- he is not that good. Don't chase the 2012 mirage and instead try to acquire a pitcher with talent. (Jeff Zimmerman)
The Quick Opinion:
Miguel Gonzalez got the win in nine of the 15 games he started in 2012. Don't expect anything close to a repeat.
Miguel Gonzalez replicated his 2012 almost exactly in 2013, posting nearly identical strikeout (16.9%) and walk (7.4%) rates and seeing his ERA inch closer to his FIP thanks to a larger innings sample. What the Orioles have with Gonzalez is a pitch-to-contact righty who doesn’t induce many ground balls, making him a risky proposition on any given day. Yes, his ERA over 276.2 career innings is 3.58, but his FIP (4.42) and xFIP (4.43) both suggest he probably won’t sustain that level of production. He’s fine as a back-end guy -- or more preferably, a swingman – and he’ll need to go back to using the slider that helped him miss a few more bats in 2012 to have any real success. Hoping for another sub-four season is probably a little too optimistic, especially if he ever begins to show a platoon split in lefty-friendly Camden. (
The Quick Opinion:
Miguel Gonzalez doesn't walk anybody, but he also doesn't miss bats and doesn't keep the ball on the ground. Even after a year and a half of success, he's anything but a safe bet given the home run tendencies.
Miguel Gonzalez turned in an almost cookie-cutter version of his 2013 performance -- his first full year of service in the major leagues. In 2013, Gonzalez posted a 3.78 ERA (4.45 FIP), 1.23 WHIP, 16.9% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate, and a 38.9% ground-ball rate. He followed that up with a 3.23 ERA, (4.89 FIP), 1.30 WHIP, 16.5% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate, and a 37.3% ground-ball rate. The major difference was in his strand rate, up about 12% at 85.5%, and probably represents the majority of that dip in ERA. Given his repertoire and profile as a fly ball pitcher who doesn't miss bats, he's been rather surprisingly effective for over 400 innings of major league service. Most projection systems see him replicating that strikeout and walk rate but few are likely to suggest an ERA south of four. He's a back-end option in most formats. (
The Quick Opinion:
Miguel Gonzalez has had a nice little run as a starter after acting as an emergency fill in during the 2012 season. The predictors would lead you to believe his success is a bit of a mirage, and the prognosticators mostly anticipate a repeat of underwhelming strikeouts, oodles of fly balls, and a degree of regression in the earned run department. As such, you should probably strive to do a little better on draft day.
Miguel Gonzalez has been part of the Orioles' (formerly) peripherals-defying rotation since 2012. Like teammate Chris Tillman, Gonzalez put up ERAs far better than one would expect from his walk and strikeout rates from 2012 to 2014. Also like Tillman, Gonzalez turned into a pumpkin in 2015. While some might point out that Gonzalez was unlucky on fly balls going out of the park last season, that was really only part of the problem. His batting average on balls in play was roughly league average after three years of them being incredibly good. His strikeout rate improved a bit, but was still below average, but his walk rate increased at the same time. Gonzalez is not that great at keeping the ball on the ground, either, and he does not have swing-and-miss stuff. He turns 32 in May, so his best days are likely behind him. He's probably better than his 2014 performance, but 2015 was probably closer to his true talent than the semi-magical 2012-2014 run. If you believe he has batted ball suppression skills, he will still be available at a bargain price or at the back end of a draft. Maybe Gonzalez will surprise us again, but he is going to be a low end option in deep leagues at best. (Matt Klaassen)
The Quick Opinion:
After three seasons of batted ball magic from 2012-2014, the clock struck midnight for Miguel Gonzalez' unremarkable stuff in 2015. He was a bit unlucky, but he is at best a low end option in most fantasy drafts in 2016.
If you would like to make a projection for this player, please
Updated: Tuesday, February 28, 2017 3:32 AM ET
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