10 Bold Predictions – Mendoza Level Production

Like many of my fellow RotoGraph writers, I attempted some bold predictions before the season began. Here is how I failed.

Brennan Boesch will be a Top 30 fantasy player.

I missed big here. Using ESPN’s player rater, it has him at #190 among just hitters. I liked the idea of the player before before Fielder and Cabrera having a good season. The problem was that no one on the Tigers wanted to step up. Eight Tigers batted in the #2 hole with Berry, Dirks, Boesch and Infante all hitting there in at least 20 games. As a group they hit .258/.313/.400. What a wasted opportunity for some fantasy player to be a Run producing machine. 0-1

Jacoby Ellsbury will be better in 2012 than in 2011.

Another swing and miss. He was only able to play in 72 games and then produced at a subpar level. I like him as a buy low candidate in 2013. 0-2

Zack Cozart will be a top five shortstop

Not close again. He is probably around the #20 fantasy SS. Runs and HRs were good from a SS. His AVG and SB were horrible. His inability to get on base via hits or walks limited his total Runs and SBs. His AVG will be a drag for years to come. 0-3

Zack Greinke will be a top three fantasy pitcher.

I had a feeling that he would be lights out this year. I was wrong. Again. He was a top 20 pitcher, just not elite 0-4

Josh Willingham will hit 35+ home runs.

Holy cow, I got one right. The key for putting up good number for him is staying on the field. 1-4

Joakim Soria will end up with 40+ saves.

Tommy John Surgery took him out before the season began. It will be interesting to see where he possibly ends up in 2013 (I am about 90% sure the Royals will not pick up his option) and at what level will he pitch. 1-5

Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Ryan Doumit will not in play 162 between the 3 of them.

Morneau – 134 games
Mauer – 145 games
Doumit – 134 games

I am amazed at how many games these 3 played. I would have like to have seen the person that would have bet that each of the 3 would play in 134 or more games. 1-6

At least three of the following six pitchers will end up on the DL in 2012: Ervin Santana, Bud Norris, Edwin Jackson, Madison Bumgarner, Michael Pineda and Ryan Dempster.

Norris, Pineda and Dempster all ended up on the DL. Sweet, I double the number of correct picks 2-6

Edinson Volquez‘s ERA will be better than Mat Latos‘ ERA.

Volquez: 4.14 ERA
Latos: 3.52 ERA

Volquez improved quite a bit, but Latos didn’t worsen enough. 2-7

Of Chris Perez, Matt Capps and Javy Guerra, two will still be closers at the end of the season.

Injuries bit me again. Perez made it as the closer throughout the season (I really don’t know how), Guerra didn’t and Capps got hurt and therefore I lost the prediction. 2-8

I batted .200. Mendoza would be proud.




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Jeff writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times and Royals Review, as well as his own website, Baseball Heat Maps with his brother Darrell. In tandem with Bill Petti, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.


13 Responses to “10 Bold Predictions – Mendoza Level Production”

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  1. pearsonw says:

    But it’s a small sample size! I think you need to make a few hundred bold predictions next season so we can determine your true talent level.

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  2. gnomez says:

    That’s .250

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  3. Nathan says:

    Mauer has played in 147 games. His most in a single season.

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  4. NBH says:

    Wow, not trying to be mean, but those were terrible bold picks, LOL. You had some monster swings and misses – better luck next year!

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  5. Radar says:

    Bold Predictions are always tough to get right. How bold would it have been to predict that Miggy would hit .300 with 30 HR or that Mike Trout would steal 30 bases in a full season? Bold is more interesting and challenging so go for it~!

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  6. dscott says:

    So I can blame you for having Cozart in two leagues, and my RBI’s killing me in both!!! lol not bad predictions my friend although I’ve never been a fan of Boesch.

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  7. Ender says:

    These predictions were awful before the season so it isn’t much of a story that most of them failed. Bold Predictions should at least have some small chance at being true.

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  8. Iorg Garth says:

    I like the Greinke prediction, definitely bold to take him 3rd pitcher off the board in a draft, but he had the potential to make it happen. Same with Ellsbury, Willingham. Cozart pick was just nuts, he is 27 and his none of his minors numbers would even be close to top 5, let alone facing major league pitching.

    But you must be a bit red-faced over Soria for 40 saves, not particularly ‘bold’ when you consider he broke 40 in 2 of the last 4 seasons, and it whiffs in such spectacular fashion.

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  9. Jon L. says:

    The least likely of the bold predictions had to be Jacoby Ellsbury. I mean, how many guys in history had that good of a season, and then followed it up with a better one? Now eliminate from that list everyone who’d never had an even remotely comparable season before breaking out at age 27, and is anyone left?

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    • Jon L. says:

      I guess at the same time I should give credit where credit is due for Josh Willingham. Yeah, he’d hit 29 homers in 136 games the year before, but he was getting older and showing no signs of further progression, at least to most of us.

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