10 More Bold Predictions
In past years, I have posted 20 bold predictions for the upcoming season. Just because our little RotoGraphs contest among authors only required 10 doesn’t mean I was going to stop there! So here are another 10 bold predictions to ridicule me for, or cause your eyes to open in wonder as to how I could be such a brilliant prognosticator. And before you read on, take another gander at my first set of boldies to refresh your memory.
Warning: I am going to sometimes use spring training stats to support my conclusions. I am still well aware that small sample size and all the other caveats still apply when trying to find predictive value in these stats.
1. Lorenzo Cain goes 15/30
Cain had a breakout power year in Triple-A last season, as his ISO spiked to .185 after generally hovering in the low .100 range. When a young player sees such an increase, I usually don’t chalk it up as a fluke, as most of the gains are likely for real. To boot, he has brought the newfound power into the spring as well, as he has swatted 5 homers already in just 70 at-bats. Heck, he’s also stolen 5 bases, and given his other stats, would be a top player in a spring training fantasy league. He should be hitting second in the order now that Johnny Giavotella was demoted, so he’ll see plenty of at-bats.
2. Dustin Ackley hits 20 bombs
Every year we hear those cliches, so and so is in the best shape of his life, blah blah blah gained 1,000 pounds of muscle. Ackley joined that club this season, as he himself added about 10 pounds since last year. Projection generally have him hitting between 10 and 15 home runs, but he ISO’d .185 at Triple-A last year and his home run total would prorate to nearly 20 assuming the Fans at-bat projection. He also raked in spring, ISO’ing .312.
3. Neil Walker earns top 5 value at second base
Boring Neil Walker, he does a little bit of everything, but nothing nearly well enough to excite fantasy owners. But wait…there’s more! He has shown better power in the minors than he did last year, so his home run total should rebound to the mid-teens at the very least. He will flirt with double digit steals. He hits enough line drives that his 2010 average of .296 could easily be attained once again. And now for the best part…he is slated to hit clean up this year behind three burners with pretty good OBPs. An upside projection of .295-18-95-85-10 may be all that is needed to nudge his way into that top 5 and that isn’t such an outlandish possibility, methinks.
4. Jesus Montero fails to reach 15 home runs
For such a hyped prospect, his minor league stats certainly didn’t support the level of hysteria. Sure, he has performed quite well, but nowhere close to what you would expect when you see his ranking on prospect lists. So I think he was overrated to begin with and now he moves to a park that completely destroys right-handed power. Last year, it deflated home runs to righties by 18%, and Baseball HQ tells us that over the past three years, it has done so by a whopping 25%. The funny thing is that when he predictably disappoints, it would be a surprise if any of the media articles mention park effects at all.
5. Mat Gamel is a top 8 third baseman
Seemingly around forever as a top prospect, defensive issues have led him to where all iron glovers go — to first base. After always hitting pretty well at Triple-A, he had his most promising campaign last season. Not only did he show the best power of his career, but he did so while cutting down on his strikeouts and posting the best contact rate since his first full season at Single-A in 2006. Even without Prince Fielder, the Brewers lineup is pretty good.
6. Billy Butler finally has that monstrous breakout to the tune of .300-30-100
For years now, we have been waiting for Butler to experience that huge power breakout, after reliably hitting 15-20 homers a year over his first three full seasons. He’s still just 26 and has been an absolute doubles machine in his young career, hitting 140 doubles over the previous three years. I hate looking at half season trends, but it’s worth mentioning that he hit 13 of his 19 homers in the last three months of 2011 and his HR/FB ratio jumped from 8% to 12%. That power spike has continued through spring, as he has hit 4 homers in 70 at-bats, and has posted a wonderfully delicious .286 ISO. The .300 part of this prediction is easy, but the 100 RBIs will be the first time he would eclipse the century mark, though he has come within 7 and 5 in recent years.
7. Danny Duffy posts a sub-4.00 ERA and strikes out 180
Wow, the third positive Royals prediction! Duffy is now throwing a cutter that drew rave reviews, though I have not seen any mention of it recently. He was pretty fantastic in the minors, regularly posting exceptional strikeout rates and displaying good control. Oh, and his fastball also averaged 93.3 miles per hour, which is excellent for a lefty. Last, here come the spring stats again — he has posted a sparkling 20/4 K/BB ratio in 16.0 innings. That equates to a K% of 27.8%. For context, that would have ranked second in the majors last year among all qualified starters.
8. Brian Matusz outearns Ervin Santana
There aren’t words to describe how poor Matusz’ results were last year, so I won’t try. He was very clearly pitching hurt as his velocity dipped nearly two miles per hour. In the spring, he is reportedly throwing in the low 90′s again, which is where he sat back in 2009 when he was a top prospect. This is great news on its own, but the results so far suggest he hasn’t missed a beat, as he has posted a tidy 22/3 K/BB ratio over 24.2 innings. Ervin Santana pitched nearly the same last year as he always has, yet his ERA dropped 0.54 points. With SIERA marks hovering around 4.00 over the last three years and his magical 2008 season never coming back, he’s a prime regression candidate. His career SIERA is almost identical to his career ERA, so we’re not talking about an annual outperformer here. Pitching in the AL East obviously makes it tough for Matusz to generate significant value, but he doesn’t need to in order to outearn Santana.
9. Ubaldo Jimenez is worthless in mixed leagues
Probably not so bold after what happened last year, but he is still being drafted in the middle rounds, so obviously most people expect him to rebound at least somewhat. Unfortunately, he has been a mess once again during the spring, having posted a cringe-inducing 15/15 K/BB ratio in 23.0 innings. Even the ground balls haven’t been there as he has allowed the same number of fly balls as grounders. Now he is spending a full season in the AL and is backed by a suspect infield defense. While I am not sure his results can be any worse than last season, his rebound might still not be enough to generate positive value.
10. Justin Verlander ends the season outside the top 10 fantasy starting pitchers
Aside from great fortune (he BABIP’ed .236, second lowest in baseball), Verlander’s huge season stemmed primarily from a further step forward in control. With nearly the same K/9 and GB% as 2010, the walk rate decline caused his SIERA to drop below 3.00 for the first time in his career. But is that control improvement sustainable? It’s doubtful. His F-Strike% (which has a high correlation with BB/9) was actually a smidge lower than what he had posted the previous two seasons. Of course, that includes a year where he posted a still strong 2.4 walk rate. But it also includes the other with a 2.9 mark. Anyhow, the bottom line is that he was lucky, obviously, to post an ERA of 2.40, so we would expect that to regress, and, his skills are going to get worse, so ERA to rise further.
Last, and most importantly, that infield defense may very well be terrible. Although Ryan Raburn will be starting at DH on opening day, he should see most of the starts at second, and he has been awful there. Jhonny Peralta‘s career UZR/150 has been a bit below average, and God only knows how Miguel Cabrera is going to handle the hot corner. In 2009, Verlander suffered through a .319 BABIP. Even with a strikeout rate over 10.0, he was still only able to record a 3.45 ERA because of the poor luck on balls in play. Don’t be surprised if that happens again. If so, there are enough other starters that can find their way into that top 10 to take his place.
Montero will hit everywhere, he goes opposite field as easy as taking it to LF. 23 HR and 80 RBI for a rookie is going to look fine!
Montero hit 39 HR over 873 pa in AAA while being younger than the rest of the league. That comes out to 27 per 600 pa. Ackley was barely half that amount and was 2 years older. And unlike Ackley, Montero did not get the PCL inflation.
Are Gamel and Aramis switcing positions?
Gamel qualifies at 3rd in fantasy leagues, but will be playing 1st.
Not in Yahoo.
Making a prediction of Matt Gamel as a top “THIRD BASEMAN” is outright silly. Just because your league has virtually no requirement for eligibility, what did he play two or three games at 3B last year?
Dude’s a first baseman in most legit leagues…
Fangraphs is a legit site, do not bring it down with silliness like that!
Incorrect. The standard rules are for 20 games at a position, but if the player did not play 20 games at any position, he is eligible at the position he played the most at. In Gamel’s case, that would be third base. In both primary experts leagues (LABR and Tout), Gamel is a starter for his fantasy owner at 3rd base.
I 100% agree on Ubaldo.
Didn’t know Walker was going to hit in the 4 hole, that certainly makes him more interesting.
You love the american league
Totally agree about Verlander. With that infield, and those corner outfield slots, there is no way his BABIP stays that low. Results are mixed on Austin Jackson, so he can’t be considered great in center. 17 wins, 3.20 era. Solid season, but not a repeat. Tigers WILL rake though. Will it be enough if they’re not getting to any balls?
Disappointing that Gamel doesn’t qualify at 3rd for yahoo leagues.
Really? He played the most games of any position at 3rd last year. Yahoo league rules are ruining fantasy baseball!
To boot, Gamel’s only UTIL eligible.
Amen! And on a side note, as soon as I read that link under bullet #7 (Danny Duffy) I quite reading and scrambled over to my Yahoo! leagues to add Duffy on (almost) all my teams. That’s some interesting information about that cutter.
To prove I take my own advice, I also added Duffy in my 12-team mixed league this morning…dropping Andrew Bailey :-(
Disappointing that people still use Yahoo for fantasy baseball.
Mike…I read the article until you mentioned Montero, must be we’re looking at different stats, because when Montero is in a batter’s box, he rakes, it doesn’t matter where he calls home, further, I’d discount his minor league stats from 2011…the kid had a MLB ready bat after his 2010 campaign, he was bored and it showed, when he got the call, he came up and wrecked and he did it in the AL East
Someone has a man-crush
You don’t happen to own Montero in your league, do you? ;-)
I’ve only got him in 3 of my 4 leagues
Duffy absolutely reminds me of Derek Holland. Compare their age-22 rookie seasons; the numbers are very very similar, and both are hard-throwing lefties. I see a similar career trajectory ahead for Duffy with some frustration this year and perhaps next as well, but a bright future ahead.
I like them, nice job.
The one I probably disagree with most is Neil Walker who I don’t think will be a top 3 2B in his division much less top 5 in baseball. Weeks, Altuve and Phillips will all out earn him.
Gamel is CI eligible in Yahoo which is just downright strange. So you can slot him in as a CI or a Util.
I see Weeks and Philips, but Altuve really?
You’re underestimating his advantage in RBI+Runs over a leadoff hitter.
I agree he could reach 95/85, which is 180 in total.
Weeks probably won’t reach 50 rbi, so he needs 130 runs to keep up with Walker.
Average is more likely to help than hurt. Also underrated.
He’s Kenrick-lite…who is Pedroia-lite.
Being “Kendrick-lite” puts Walker outside the top 5. Also, Weeks will pass 50 RBI’s before August.
I’m with ya on almost every one except Butler hitting 30 (the park hurts) and Verlander being outside the Top 10. I agree he’ll regress, but probably still be Top 5 to 10. Weakest offensive division in the AL.
Who’ll have a better season: Josh Tomlin or Danny Duffy?
ha. That’s a joke, right?
Montero hit .289/.353/.517 in the International League at age 20. What more do you want? ;)
Who are you higher on for A) this season and B) next three years: Danny Duffy or Juan Nicasio?
I ask because I’m in a keeper league and have a relativily shallow staff but these guys are available for the taking.
Tough question, I like both. Nicasio pitches half his games at Coors, while Duffy is in the AL, but in a good park and decent division. Duffy definitely has the better minor league track record and higher strikeout rate ceiling I’d say. I think his fantasy upside is higher, but his downside might be as well. I’d prob say Duffy and reach for the stars. But I do like both.
What you’re failing to recognize about Montero is that by *EVERYONE’s* admission, he was mailing it in at triple-a in 2011 because he didnt think he belonged there anymore.
Top 5 2Bs for 2012.
Cano
Kinsler
Pedrioa
Weeks
Kendrick
swap in Phillips, Uggla, Utley, Zobrist for Kendrick or Weeks if you want. Walker (despite hitting 4th) will NOT be a top 5 2B.
My comments on your predictions:
1) 12/30 would have been more reasonable… less bold, so I will give it too you.
2) Ackley is underrated. The ball park in Seattle will hurt him for half his games. The other half it will not. 20 HRs is perfectly reasonable to me.
3) If 2 is Ackley hits 20 he will outproduce Walker (but still not break the top 5 2Bs). I believe you are wildly incorrect here.
4) Only playing time will prevent Montero from hitting 15 HRs. Incorrect.
5) 3B stinks after the top guys. That said, I think 8 is ambitious. Cabrera, Longoria, Zimmerman, Beltre, Arod, Wright are all virtually certain to outproduce Gamel. That leaves any 2 of Reynolds (it’s fantasy), Lawrie, Youkilis, Hanley, Freese, Sandoval, Roberts, and AmRam to outproduce him to deny the projection. I think it is more likely that they ALL outproduce him then that he outproduces enough of these guys. Gamel is a fine young hitter though.
6) Think about it. For the Butler prediction he really only needs to hit 10 more HRs and drive in about 12 more RBIs then normal (he is almost a lock to hit around .300). 10 HRs is a good jump but for a 26 year old TOP prospect it is far from a “monstrous breakout”. 35 HRs, .315 and 120 RBIs would be a monstrous breakout.
7) Agree for the most part. 180 Ks might be close but Duffy has the stuff to get it done.
8) This one is unlikely baring injury. Santana will have to try HARD not to win 14 games, while Matusz would have to TRULY breakout to win 14 games on that team. Wins count in fantasy, so I think that the edge is tilted towards Santana heavier than you anticipated.
9) Jimenez might be worthless. It’s crazy that a guy can go from unhittable to eminently hittable.
10) Verlander’s D sucks! But it wasnt very good last year either. Top 10 is pretty elite and it isnt unusual to see a guy go from Cy Young to outside the top 10 and STILL be great. For instance, Felix as 10th last year (in WAR, but…), Lincecum was about 20th, and Greinke about 25th. They are all very recent Cy winners. I would put the over under on Verlander as top 8 so I think you prediction is sufficiently bold, but likely incorrect.
Sheesh, take the article at face value! It’s just some predictions that aren’t likely to happen.
I know you acknolwedged this to an extent in the intro but every single one of these predictions sounds like an overreaction to spring stats to me.
The one I disagree with most is Ackley. The guy just doesn’t have that kind of power. He will be a very good real life (high obp, good defense) baseball player, but will never be a stud in fantasy. He will be lucky to have a 20 homer season in his entire career. It isn’t happening this year, especially not at Safeco.
Safeco isn’t hard on LHB, so his park shouldn’t hurt him much.
You nailed Ubaldo.
Wrong on everything.
4, 6, and 9 look like they might happen.
4 & 9.
Nice job on Walker (so far). Too bad injuries scrubbed your picks for Duffy, Gamel & Cain. I agree that the Billy Butler prediction was not that bold, but it appears you got that one right.