Potential Trade Impact: Werth, Oswalt, Haren

The trade deadline is getting very close. How close is it? Close enough that Jon Heyman has moved back into Scott Boras’ guest house. Three big names have a very good chance of being traded at the deadline, and it will affect their fantasy value in one way or another. Rumors are flying around the internet like crazy, so I apologize if new information comes out.

Jayson Werth | OF | Likely Destination: Rays

Werth would bring his wood to St. Petersburg (I would say Tampa, but I’d get in trouble for that), and likely play RF for the Rays. Then again, he could move into the DH role instead, allowing Zobrist to stay in right or pave the way for a Desmond Jennings promotion. There’s no way to predict how Werth would handle AL pitching, let along AL East pitching, but I’d like to think that his power would transfer over nicely. If he’s traded, his RBI and run totals will likely rise, while his batting average will decline. Overall value: Slightly Increased.

Roy Oswalt | SP | Likely Destination(s): Phillies, Cardinals

The rumor that’s been floated actually links Werth and Oswalt. The rumor states that the Phillies would use the package the Rays give them to trade for Oswalt. Things get hairy if Houston isn’t excited about the Rays’ prospects, but chances are they will be. Essentially, the Phillies would end up trading Jayson Werth for Oswalt and Dominic Brown. Moving from Houston to Philly would increase Oswalt’s value, due to an increased amount of run support and better defense behind him. Recent reports link the Cardinals to Oswalt, who would benefit from not having to face Pujols. Trading within the division can create problems, but the Astros and Cards could still come to an agreement. Overall value: Significantly increased.

Dan Haren | SP | Likely Destination(s): Cardinals, Tigers

Haren’s possible landing spots are still a mystery, but it seems like it will come down to St. Louis and Detroit. If he moves, I think he’ll end up with the Cardinals, where he started his career. The Cardinals best prospect they could offer the D’Backs is a few years away from the bigs, so they would likely pull the trigger if given the chance. Haren would get more wins due to increased run support, and his ERA and BABIP could benefit from some of Dave Duncan’s magic. Overall value: Significantly increased.

Why do you, the readership, care about these things? Two reasons: First, these deals could be huge in AL-only and NL-only leagues, as players could be switching leagues. Secondly, you may be holding onto a player, or targeting a player because you think (hope?) he’ll be dealt at the deadline to a team that would boost his numbers. Heck, I’ve excluded Haren from trade talks because I’m desperately hoping he’ll be dealt at the deadline, so maybe some of you have been doing something similar.

Thanks to James Niemeyer for this article’s inspiration.

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Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.

8 Responses to “Potential Trade Impact: Werth, Oswalt, Haren”

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  1. Kyle says:

    Both Haren and Oswalt would benefit from Dave Duncan… but Oswalt is known for amazing second halves while Haren isn’t.

    Oswalt would be a better pitcher of the two in the American League. Why? He still has a fastball that can dominate. Haren has already given up 23 bombs, and has only once held hitters to less than 20 in a full season. While Oswalt has only given up more than 20 once…

    Compare stats, and it seems one guy is in decline while being almost 3 years younger. If Oswalt had pitched for almost any other team, he’d be 12-6. Haren is also a pretty good hitter, and that’d be lost in the American League.

    Where is Adam Dunn? Is he not being shopped anymore? If he goes to the right team. he changes everything.

    One guy has a 4.60 ERA, the other has a 3.12 ERA in a hitters’ park… one guy is 5-7 seasons away from being a Hall of Famer And I have no idea(besides being paid far less)why anyone thinks Haren is on the same level as Oswalt. His career ERA after the all-star break is well over 4, and he would face the Yankees or Red Sox and give up 5 bombs each game.

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  2. bballer319 says:

    This is just a shot in the dark, but maybe Haren’s 2nd half stats aren’t so great because he’s had a 2.01, 2.72, and 2.30 ERA in the first half….cough…regression…cough.

    Haren’s career xfip of 3.61 vs Oswalt’s 3.57 is awfully close.

    But it would be a foolish not to consider that Haren is very much a different pitcher the last 2 years vs his career with his move to throwing the cutter vs slider. A move to Busch stadium would help his gopher rate a ton; moving to a .76 HR effect (espn park factors) vs Chase Field’s 1.14 HR effect.

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  3. Kyle says:

    Haren definitely pitches in a hitters park… all good points, but I just don’t think you can trust him down the stretch. Last season he looked like Don Drysdale until the second half. This year, he’s looked like a disinterested Oswalt from last season.

    But if Haren went to a pitchers park, he would obviously give up less homeruns. I just think Oswalt(when looking at careers, this season, and run support over the years)are in different categories. Oswalt has been one of the top 3 pitchers in the game, and could easily have 25-30 more wins for a team like the Yankees… Haren has been one in the best pitchers 3 times but in the 1st half. But for whatever reason, the guy isn’t the same pitcher EVER in the 2nd half. Oswalt’s fastball is still popping, and the difference in their WHIP is insane right now. Obviously both will help a contender…

    They’d still both be the 3rd pitcher in the rotation(if traded to the Cardinals.) This was a pointless post I suppose, but I just don’t think Haren is a guy I’d want going in game 7 of the World Series. Oswalt, in my opinion, would be my choice(even with the difference in salary and age.)

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  4. Joe M says:

    From a fantasy perspective Haren is by far the superior pitcher it’s not even up for debate. In most league’s k’s are their own category, and Haren has a significant edge there in the last three years. Also, all of Haren’s important peripherals(K/9, BB/9 GB%) are in line with the last few years, when’s he’s been a top 3 to 5 starter. Oswalt seems likely to regress in k’s, which will hamper his xfip and whip.

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  5. nate says:

    i hate to be a buzz kill but i just don’t understand why all the talking heads keep saying the d’backs are going to trade haren. he is affordable for the next few years (relative to market value) and the d’backs look like a team that can win next year … assuming they can fix the bullpen this offseason! given the contract status of several players–notably montero, drew, jackson, and kennedy–who are affordable this year (but probably not in 2012), however, i don’t see them competing past 2011 even assuming, arguendo, that they got back a package close to the 6 players they gave up to get haren… and from what i’ve seen, nobody is offering even CLOSE to that for haren these days. why start rebuilding a year early if you don’t have to? why not give it a shot in 2011 and then move haren next year if things don’t work out… is 1 year really going to depress his trade value more than what teams are offering now (basically, 1 A-grade prospect and 2 B/C grade prospects)?

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  6. Brett W says:

    What weird world wouldn’t the Astros be excited about Rays prospects? That’s like a North Dakota high school team saying that the Yankees suck.

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