2011 First Base Rankings: July
First base was fantasy’s deepest position coming into the season, and somehow it seems like it’s gotten even deeper in the first half. Here are last month’s rankings, which can take you back to previous rankings as well. The primary factors here are current performance and expected future performance, as always.
Tier One
Prince Fielder 
Adrian Gonzalez
Miguel Cabrera
Paul Konerko
Prince jumps into the top tier probably a month too late. His performance is on par with Gonzalez’s, just with way more walks (for you OBP leaguers) and some more homers in exchange for a lower (but still very good) batting average. Konerko has shown that last year’s monster performance was no dead cat bounce, and an argument can be made that he should be above Cabrera. I won’t go that far just yet. Miggy and Adrian are beasts and don’t need much explanation.
Tier Two
Joey Votto 
Albert Pujols
Lance Berkman
Mark Teixeira
Ryan Howard
Kevin Youkilis
Adam Lind
Gaby Sanchez
Votto and Pujols certainly haven’t been bad, it’s just that others have been better. The former lags a little behind the elite guys in the power department (just a dozen homers), though he does make up for it with some steals (six). The season is halfway over and Pujols is still stuck in sub-.370 wOBA territory, though it’ll be tough for anyone to top his ZiPS projected .302/.401/16/46 the rest of the way. Teixeira leads the majors in non-Jose Bautista homers, but he’s stuck with a sub-.250 batting average in part due to a super low .213 BABIP. Last year’s awfulness appears to be in Lind’s rear-view mirror, he’s been on an absolute tear since late-April (.342/.398/.652 with a disabled list stint mixed in). Youkilis has more value at third base, obviously, but his production still warrants a high ranking. Berkman has slowed down some (.238/.380/.530 since May 1st) but he’s still crushing the ball.
Tier Three
Michael Young
Billy Butler
Michael Cuddyer
Todd Helton
Mitch Moreland
Michael Morse
Young picked up first base eligibility earlier this season and has been on a tear all year, though his power output (just seven dingers so far) isn’t ideal for the position. Cuddyer rebounded from a brutal April and is one of the few legitimate big league bats left standing in the Twins’ lineup. Morse is the big jumper here because of his power (15 homers), though I’m not 100% sold on him maintaining a .300 AVG given his .341 BABIP. Then again, he did have a .330 BABIP last year, so we’re now closing in on a sample of almost 600 plate appearances with that kind of balls in play luck. He’s shown he can hit, no doubt about it, but just keep in mind that Morse’s OBP is inflated by seven hit-by-pitches, his walk rate is a puny 5.0%.
Tier Four
Carlos Pena
Justin Smoak
Eric Hosmer
Mark Trumbo
Brett Wallace
Casey Kotchman
Daniel Murphy
Matt LaPorta
Freddie Freeman
It’s amazing how bad Pena was then and how good he is now. That works on so many levels, both with his career overall and this single season. The calendar flipped to May and Pena hasn’t stopped hitting since, a .245/.359/.548 batting line with 18 homers. That’s basically his best case scenario right there. Smoak, Hosmer, and Wallace have been productive but have also dealt with the hiccups usually associated with a kid in his first full season as a big leaguer. Kotchman made one hell of a sacrifice to the BABIP gods (.343/.401/.464 with a .374 BABIP), and Murphy is doing a fine job of hitting for average (.298 with a .327 BABIP) even if he isn’t hitting for much power.
Tier Five
Carlos Lee
Ty Wigginton
Adam Dunn
Aubrey Huff
Garrett Jones
James Loney
Derrek Lee
Lyle Overbay
Russell Branyan
Eric Hinske
Adam Kennedy
Juan Miranda
Anthony Rizzo
Dunn’s free fall is pretty alarming, and he’s basically unrosterable at this point. His name and track record are the only things saving him. Wigginton is playing every day now (mostly third base) and has provided some power since coming off the disabled list in mid-May (11 homers, 13 total). The Padres’ called up Rizzo last month and he’s been scuffling, but the talent is still there. It’s just not his time yet. Miranda is another guy in total free fall, to the point where he’s lost his job as the everyday first baseman.
Off The Radar
Ike Davis
Brandon Belt
Justin Morneau
Luke Scott
Daric Barton
Brad Hawpe
Adam LaRoche
Kila Ka’aihue
Chris Davis
Brandon Allen
Dan Johnson
Kendrys Morales
Yonder Alonso
Chris Carter
Jorge Cantu
Xavier Nady
Jay Gibbons
Travis Ishikawa
Davis, Morneau, and Scott are all injured and not expected back anytime soon. Belt and Barton are in the minors for the time being, though either could resurface at any time. Even if they do, they’re still unlikely to provide any kind of real impact in the second half. Everyone else is pretty self-explanatory, they’re either hurt (LaRoche, Morales), in the minors (Ka’aihue, Davis, Allen, Johnson, Alonso), or unemployed (Cantu). Carter was recently recalled but hasn’t done much of anything yet.
Dang, Freddie Freeman looks low. I’d take him over all of Tier 4 and most of Tier 3.
These rankings are awful. Totally agree about Freeman.
you can post yours, just cut & paste the names into a comment, move ‘em around and let’s see.
And he just hit another 3 run HR.
Yes, everyone always loves the hot streaks. If he turns around and goes .200 for a month it wouldn’t surprise me.
.302/.362/.508 since the end of April…that’s one hell of a long hot streak
Votto and Pujols in the same tier with Gaby, Howard and Lind? I stopped there because you are on crack.
wait… why is Yonder Alonso ranked?
please justify Moreland ahead of Morse. Morse’s numbers in ~300AB this year are virtually identical to his ~300AB last year. That’s ~600AB with 30HR and an 850ish OPS and a .290ish AVG, with better counting stats than Moreland also.
They’re one spot apart, there’s basically no difference.
right, but the point is there is actually a large difference, i.e. Morse is significantly better!! They shouldn’t even be that close.
or, to put it another way, what has Moreland done to demonstrate he belongs in Tier 3, whereas other “young and sort of decent” options like Freeman, Smoak, or Trumbo?
Morse is clearly a step up from that group right now, but what has Moreland done to belong in Tier 3?
How do you weight current performance and expected performance? It kind of seems like 70-30.
If it were 30-70, Votto and Pujols would move past Konerko, and Berk would drop behind Tex, right?
Hosmer’s arrow pointing down?
In 6 July games, the guy is hitting .346 with 3 HR and 6 RBI. I’m buying.
And don’t try to say it’s because he’s “young”, because you’ve got a green arrow pointing up for Rizzo, and he’s stinking up the place.
Rizzo got the arrow because he wasn’t in last month’s rankings and has been added. Michael Young got one too. Hosmer’s three homers this month came in Coors Field and The Cell, I want to see more.
I understand guys are going to move around to an extent based on their current performance, but I think the only way rankings like this are at all useful is if they’re attempting to predict success from here on out. Anyone can look at today’s stats and tell who’s having a better year. But for the rest of the season, I can’t imagine why anybody would want Konerko over Votto, for example.
So, having 3 of the Tier 2 guys on my team is good, right? Heh.
Votto and Pujols should be in Tier 1. How anybody can justify putting Votto (.404 wOBA) and Pujols in the second tier of ANYTHING is beyond me.
Morse should be at the end of Tier 2 or the top of Tier 3. He’s showing power (20% HR/FB), makes great contact and is in a prime spot for run production w/ Espinosa, Zimmerman, Werth and Nix flanking him. How can you justify putting Mike Young (lucky to reach 15 HR), Butler (ditto), Moreland (.348 wOBA, terrible lineup spot) and Helton (nice ratios, but well below average counting stats) ahead of him?
Alex, I know Mitch Moreland is on your team, but these guys have great points. Plus Votto and pujols below 35 year old konorko? his numbers are “on pace for” what no one else has done at his age. i thought these rankings were NOT about season so far as much as the next half. at 50/50 pre-season projected vs. in-the-books. konorkos 2nd half projected should severly weigh down his on pace for numbers, well below puj. PLease tell me you follow.