2011 Player Rankings: NL OF

You’ve probably gotten a handle on how things are going here. We RotoGraph writers got together around Carson’s virtual, incredibly round table, and ranked the players. Then we smashed them together and today I’ll add the tiers. These rankings assume regular settings (but plan on seeing some articles about players that step forward in alternate settings). Once the season starts, I’ll be your NL OF correspondent, continually updating the rankings and discussing player news at the position.

RotoGraphs will also provide a list of mixed-league OF ranks. Because of the way things are set up here, we won’t be able to offer strong coverage at the position without splitting them into leagues. But we can give you a draft-prep sheet for mixed-league outfielders and will as soon as we can. And one last thing – click on the tags in the bottom right navbar and you can easily skip to the position you’d like to read about.

Caddyshack
Ryan Braun
Carlos Gonzalez
Matt Holliday

Though this tier is not without questions, the questions are a lot more muted than the rest of the position. Braun’s power will hopefully regress to career levels, and even if Gonzalez is unhappy about his regression in batted-ball luck, he should be a valuable player. Holliday is the metronome, but the lineup around him is worse than you might expect, and he owns less power than you might think. Don’t sell them short, though, they’re tremendous slouches/outfielders.

Ghostbusters
Matt Kemp
Andrew McCutchen
Jayson Werth
Justin Upton
Jason Heyward
Hunter Pence

If you gotta call someone, you might as well call these guys. Every member of this tier will give you something in all five categories – and yet they may give a little something back somewhere else. Kemp’s Ks mean a lower batting average, McCutchen’s power is an open question, Werth is leaving a nice home park and has always struck out a lot, Heyward needs to stay healthy and show the power we know is coming, and Pence has to avoid the bad streak that comes almost every year.

This is Spinal Tap
Andre Ethier
Jay Bruce
Shane Victorino
Mike Stanton
Drew Stubbs
Chris Young
Corey Hart
Colby Rasmus
Martin Prado

This tier is mostly in transit. Some are on their way up, some on their way down, and all feature questions more prominently than the last group. For the most part, you won’t get a nice batting average here, and if you start falling behind in that category, you may find yourself skipping the group. That would be too bad, because someone here will dial it to eleven this year.

The 40-Year Old Virgin
Angel Pagan
Jason Bay
Aubrey Huff
Michael Bourn
Carlos Lee
Jose Tabata
Dexter Fowler
Chris Coghlan

Same as the last verse, just a little bit worse. All the veterans here are closer to extinction, and all the young guys have lower ceilings. These guys are flawed, but if they fall far enough, they’ll provide your team with value. And even limited upside is still upside – just don’t put them on a pedestal.

Step Brothers
Carlos Beltran
Lance Berkman
Marlon Byrd
Seth Smith
Will Venable
Alfonso Soriano
Logan Morrison
Nyjer Morgan
Andres Torres
Ryan Ludwick
Raul Ibanez
Tyler Colvin

This is not the time for a Will Ferrell referendum, but even his biggest fans would admit that he has better movies. Still, the movie was good for some great lines, and most of these guys will be able to hit offer some good lines for a stretch or two. Over the course of the year, you will start to see their flaws, but a few high notes is enough at their prices.

Coneheads
Cody Ross
Garrett Jones
Nate McLouth
Domonic Brown
Carlos Gomez
Jonny Gomes
Ben Francisco
Cameron Maybin
Mark DeRosa
Mike Morse
Roger Bernadina
Ryan Spilborghs
Chris Dickerson
Kosuke Fukudome
Ryan Sweeney
Brad Hawpe
Kyle Blanks

A fundamentally flawed movie and tier, you’ll still get a chuckle or two. One or two of these guys may even rise above his peers and make great movies, I mean become a fantasy regular at his position. But the odds are not in their favor this year.




Print This Post

Graphs: Baseball, Roto, Beer, brats (OK, no graphs for that...yet), repeat. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris.


41 Responses to “2011 Player Rankings: NL OF”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. buck turgidson says:

    Stanton?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Mike says:

    Can we gets tiers with both AL and NL OF?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Boomer says:

    I thought Anchorman was great.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Eno Sarris says:

      I thought it was pretty good. Ending was a little meh, and quotable, but also: other Ferrell movies were better imo. Old School.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Jack7521 says:

        But Old School was not really a “Will Ferrell” movie. He wasn’t the lead actor so he did not have to carry the movie. Which is probably why many consider it his best.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Micah says:

        Hello, Elf! Maybe I’m crazy, but to me Elf is in the Christmas movie tier just below Christmas Vacation. It’s a near classic with classic potential once it has a few more years to age.

        Using the movie quote/reference percentage index (MQRPI), in my circle of friends it is referenced or quoted now MORE than Christmas Vacation and sustains near average levels of quoting/referencing throughout the year when compared to all movies, a key indicator of a movie becoming a Christmas classic.

        Oh, and nice tearing on the baseball stuff, but I don’t know what that has to do with this thread? haha…or should I say, hohoho.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • S.M. Jenkins says:

        No thanks. Elf is god awful.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. Jason B says:

    “Braun’s power will hopefully regress to career levels”

    PROgress, I think you mean. Progression to the mean – approaching it from below. Regression, from above.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Michael Barr says:

      FYI, regression moves up or down. Below mean performance draws inward the same way above mean performance does. The mean is the magnet, it doesn’t care about home runs being good or bad.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Jason B says:

        Oh I know. I know things can and do approach the mean from both above and below. But regress means “to step backward”. If the mean is 81 wins and the Pirates win 65, they don’t regress toward 81, they PROgress toward it.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • R M says:

        That’s like saying that technically, something that is slowing down is “accelerating”. It may be true, but it sounds a lot nicer if you say it’s decelerating.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Jason B says:

        Yeah, exactly!

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Michael Barr says:

        *pulls hair out*

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Salt-n-Pepitone Loc says:

        Higher power seasons chronologically lie behind Braun’s current position, therefore he will have to go backwards to get back to them, and thus regress, or step backwards. Happy now?

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. Jason B says:

    I’m pretty sure Spinal Tap is more highly regarded than perhaps anything else listed here. It’s certainly consistently funnier and smarter than either of the two listed above it, if not with the same mass appeal. (Not that I don’t love me some Bill Murray.)

    I think I would go, just in terms of overall quality and ability to make me laugh, Spinal Tap / Anchorman / Caddyshack / Ghostbusters / Saving Private Ryan / Coneheads.

    (And I can’t quibble with subjectivity, just putting my two cents in.)

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • CampBrice says:

      I agree on Spinal Tap – classic hilarity but you can’t go wrong with Caddyshack just for the sheer comedic history of combining Ted Knight, Rodney Dangerfield, Bill Murray and Chevy Chase in the same flick.

      “Noonan”

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Jason B says:

        “I ask myself, how much blacker can this album cover be? And the answer is none…none more black.”

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Eno Sarris says:

        I like most of the movies listed here good enough, but to me Caddyshack is the most quotable movie of all time.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Jason B says:

        Did you happen to catch the Biography channel 2-hour “behind the scenes” look at the making of Caddyshack? Lots of good stuff there.

        In particular, they talked about how at the time of its release, it had a pretty middling showing at the box office and wasn’t really well received critically either, but has really grown in stature over the years. Which I think is true – it has definitely aged well.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Chris says:

      I’m pretty sure that a while back Caddyshack was voted the best comedy of all time. I could split hairs with Spinal Tap vs Ghostbusters, but Ghostbusters had the greater appeal.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Anon says:

      There is just no way Anchorman is above Caddyshack. Like most comedies in recent history, the first half is perfection and about 20 minutes into the second half you’re ready for the movie to be over.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. adohaj says:

    You lost all respect gained from caddyshack when you placed anchorman below 40 year old virgin.

    “This is not the time for a Will Ferrell referendum, but even his biggest fans would admit that he has better movies. Still, the movie was good for some great lines,”

    Terrible analysis how do you have a job!?

    Good baseball stuff though

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • SKob says:

      Don’t knock the author –

      60 percent of the time, he’s right everytime

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Eno Sarris says:

        Come on, Will Ferrell doesn’t have better movies? That ending was not great. It had some high points, but also some unfunny parts.

        Also, I think the point was more the outfielder rankings haha. I guess I knew what I was getting into.

        And: it’s much easier for me to rank players than movies. I moved the tier names around more than the players haha.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Chris says:

        One word Eno: Elf

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Eno Sarris says:

      ok you got me. fixed?

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Jason B says:

        I think you have Step Brothers rated just right. I think everything you’ve said about “Anchorman” applies doubly to that movie – definitely some funny moments and quoteable stuff, but man the wheels just kinda fall off and you’re squirming around, waiting for the final credits to mercifully roll by the end of it.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. Jason says:

    Markakis??

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  8. BlackYoshi says:

    I can’t find these tags linking to the other positions for the life of me…

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  9. Andrew says:

    Did Ryan Sweeney leave the A’s?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  10. Scott G says:

    Spinal Tap should always be top tier, although anything with Bill “F’N” Murray will have a place in my heart

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  11. Dscott says:

    Only thing i have a problem with, would be your Holliday ranking in tier 1, while you have Upton stuck in tier two. Now i know Upton dissapointed us all last year with his lines, but his potential has to push him over Holliday. 5 category stud who could be above average in homers, rbi’s and steals or a consistent guy that is a 4 category producer>?? I will take my chances at the 5 categories, and maybe grab some other average guys on my team to balance out Uptons bad streaks he can go on th roughout the season.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  12. Dscott says:

    To further illustrate my point, I will post the 2011 projections from a magazine source for both players.

    Upton: 91/25/89/22/.281
    Hollid 97/27/96/8/.307

    With Upton being age 23, I guess im hoping for him to peak early, but i feel that even these numbers are a little low. If Upton gets out of the gates hot, 30 homers would not be out of reach, and 25 steals is not a far reaching fantasy either. All i am saying is that Upton’s potential skys above Holliday who has posted those same boring nunmbers year in and year out, and he has always been lucky with BABIP. I think these two at least need to be in the same conversation.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  13. dude says:

    Caddyshack destroys all. 40 YO Virgin is the best movie out of the Judd Apatow genre. IMO

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  14. Sean says:

    Shin Soo Choo?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  15. dan says:

    SO CONFUSED. WHERE IS CARL CRAWFORD?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  16. Scott says:

    I realize I’m in the minority, and everyone has their own opinion and there isn’t a right answer here, but I really think jason heyward is being overvalued right now. I agree his skill set is scary when he puts it all together, but all 3 projections have him around .280/20 homers. And I would argue that expecting 10-15 steals him again probably isn’t realistic. He’s got a ton of room to grow, and maybe I’m nitpicking but I really dont see a difference between him and some of the next tier down guys like ethier/bruce/etc.

    Several years down the road he could be among the top players in baseball, but right now I just think the hype machine has pushed his stock higher than his actual performance will meet.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>