2011 Player Rankings: Third Basemen
I’ve done a fair amount of reading on third base rankings headed into the 2011 fantasy baseball season. While most prognosticators and enthusiasts recognize some elite talent at the tippy-top of the list, references such as “terrifying,” “black hole,” and, ahem, “talentless batch of hackers” have described the rest of the list, which I might venture to simply call not terribly deep. Third base will present many managers with a challenge, but I’m not so sure there aren’t some gems to be had in this list.
We’ll spend the next few days breaking down the rankings so I won’t spend much time dissecting, but I will be the third base guy for the season, so I’ll give you a little insight on what I’m currently thinking.
Here are the combined third base rankings for your consideration:
| Tier 1 |
| Evan Longoria |
| David Wright |
Yup, that’s a pretty lonely looking tier. Evan Longoria and David Wright are in a class among themselves largely because of the five-category contributions. The lack of a guarantee that they will, indeed, significantly contribute in all five categories provides the hint that third base has some issues going forward.
| Tier 2 |
| Ryan Zimmerman |
| Alex Rodriguez |
| Kevin Youkilis |
Yes, Youkilis won’t have third base eligibility for a couple weeks in most formats, but once he does, he’s going to be awfully valuable, and it’s my bet that most are going to be drafting him as their rep at the hot corner rather than first base on draft day. But no doubt the dual eligibility will be nice. Alex Rodriguez turns 36 in July and his 2010 w/OBA slid to it’s lowest level as a regular major leaguer representing the low end of a four year decline, so I have a little concern there. A rebound could put him up a tier, but if the trend continues, he might be down one as well.
| Tier 3 |
| Adrian Beltre |
| Jose Bautista |
| Aramis Ramirez |
| Mark Reynolds |
| Martin Prado |
This is where some red flags start to go up that we’ve all seen. Can Bautista prevent a Brady Anderson? Can Ramirez hit for a whole season? Can Reynolds avoid Mario Mendoza? The third tier could easily be two distinct tiers, but you really can’t have a dozen tiers, can you?
| Tier 4 |
| Pablo Sandoval |
| Casey McGehee |
| Pedro Alvarez |
| Michael Young |
| Ian Stewart |
Tier 4 presents some opportunities. The Panda finds himself heading the “Best Shapers” list, but regardless of his girth (or lack thereof) I could see a nice bounce back. While Pedro Alvarez and Ian Stewart are both guys with some Batting Average issues, their power could put them up in tier 3 pretty quickly as well.
There are certainly varying degrees of quality, opportunity, and potential among ‘the rest’ but I don’t think you want any of them as your starting 3b. We’ll take a look at deep sleepers later, which will include many of these names. Also note that Michael Cuddyer and Neil Walker should have 3b eligibility early in the season, and they’d certainly find themselves within these tiers.
And out of curiosity, if Michael Cuddyer qualifies for 3B in your league, he fits in which tier?
He would probably headline ‘The Rest’. His versatility will be nice as he’ll likely have 1b/3b/OF eligibility. Low .270′s BA, high teens in HR. If you believe he can hit 22-24 HR’s, he’s easily a Tier 4 guy because he scores runs, drives in enough to be useful and he might also grab a bag a month.
I thought I followed baseball pretty closely, but I thought you made up the name Lonnie Chisenhall.
Pretty classic baseball name, huh? They should just call him Moonlight Lonnie.
There’s a very real possibility you’ll see him in Cleveland by mid-season. He’s interesting.
I doubt he comes up before September, between guys like Goedert, O Cabrera, Donald, Phelps and Nix there are too many options at 3B for the Indians and all of them prevent their top prospect’s arbitration clock from ticking for one more season. Perhaps at the start of next season, if not June of 2012 he’ll be up.
Where is Chone Figgins? Even though he probably fits under “The Rest”
I thought you were a Mariner guy?
Yeah, that’s called payback.
He fell off a few lists and so he didn’t make our overall, but yes – I think it’s fair to stick him towards the top of ‘The Rest’. He’ll be featured fairly prominently on the 2b rankings coming up later this week.
Even though it is very unlikely he’ll play second base at all next year (unless the M’s trade him)?
Why would Neil Walker have 3B eligibility with Pedro Alvarez in town?
Good point. Walker had 6 games at 3b last year, so his eligibility has more to do with your league rules than his appearing early in the season.
Dan Johnson! 5 games started at 3B!
(Sorry, I’m in a deep league and options are limited. I get excited about such things)
Nice list I was gonna bicker with you and say that Ian Stewart should be part of “the rest” then I realized he’s only 25 and the potential for 30HR’s is there. Throw in a lucky BABIP year and he could easily end up towards the top of that “Tier 3″ group.
And let me ask you this, if you knew Chipper was going to play 140 games this year, would he make Tier 4?
I really like Stewart headed into this year… he’s a little under the radar too. ADP 117 in MDC, 167! in Yahoo.
Toughie on Chipper… ISO pretty pedestrian last couple years, predicting a rebound there might not be wise. .270-18HR-80 if he plays 140 games? I like the old man a lot, but it’s gonna take more than 5-hr energy to get him into tier 4 I think.
Why all the Martin Prado love? What is so exciting about a 12/5 guy in your 3B slot? I noticed in the tier 3 comments there is no specific mention of Prado’s ranking.
He’s Placido Polanco plus 5 homeruns, or Jose Lopez plus some average. Both those guys are in your untiered tier. Prado had a career year last year, and that was still only a 15/5 season. His upside is limited, his downside is league average. His value comes from having 2B and 3B eligiblity, it makes him a felixible play and makes his boring numbers more tolerable. But this is a 3B only list, what is he doing inside the top 10 3Bs?
I tend to agree, I will let someone else have Prado’s relatively empty average and run-scoring ability. I think I would rather swing for the fences with an Alvarez (maybe) or Stewart (especially).
You caught me. I’m not thrilled with Prado as a 3b option either, but I think his presence in Tier 3 is largely because you can practically take a .300 batting average and 100 runs to the bank. Add in double-digit HR’s a fistful of steals, and 2b/3b/OF eligibility in most formats and he’s a nice guy to have around.
If several of those Tier 4 guys climb over him, I won’t be surprised.
I look at the 2B/3B/OF eligibility and see him as a nice Monday and Thursday plug-in, not a 3B starter. I would place him at the bottom of tier 4, as the 15th 3B.
Overall, I like the rankings though. I don’t want to sound too negative. I agree with the rest of the list, just Prado stuck out to me.
Mario Mendoza not Manny
doh!
Fixed, thanks.
Thanks for putting this together. It looks like Cuddyer is going to start in RF, and he’s not listed as a backup at 3B on the Twins’ site. I know he played 14 games there last year, but was there some news that he’d be playing there more this year? He’d be a nice option at 3B once the top guys are gone, but if he’s not the starting 3B (like, for example, Youkilis), it might take a long time for him to qualify, if at all.
Jay – he played 14 games at 3b last season, so he already has eligibility in Yahoo’s system.
The talk about 3B being incredibly shallow seems weird to me – in fact, I see it as almost the opposite. As you said, the top guys are a bit riskier than you might want from a R1 pick. They’ll still produce, but will they produce like a first pick?
On the other hand, I think every team in a 10 team league can have a reasonable 3Bman. Tier 4 here isn’t nearly as bad as Tier 4 in some other positions.
well, I guess it’s all about trade offs at other slots, but there are only 4 players that I’d be happy starting at 3b, and only about three others that I’d find acceptable.
I’d be happy with all 5 in the top 2 tiers (and I’d be happy with Beltre, and would probably have put him in the 2nd tier).
I’m not as excited about Bautista as some other people are, but that probably means that a 3B slot will get filled leaving someone else for me to grab.
Alvarez projects as .265 with 28 HR
Ramirez projects as .275 with 25 HR
Young projects as .290 with 19 HR
Sandoval projects as .295 with 20 HR
McGhee projects as .283 with 20 HR
Those guys seem solid to me (and are possibly better than some of the 1Bmen that will be filling UTIL roles)
Chase Headley or Chris Johnson? I’m in an NL only league and prefer them to the oldsters like Tejada, Rolen, Chipper et al.
Yeah, if I had a heart, I’d have put Headley at the bottom of Tier 4 but 13 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a .270 batting average… mmm….meh. I actually find Chris Johnson pretty interesting. I’d take Headley and Johnson over the other three…the projections for all of them aren’t terribly different and you might as well go with youth.
So, do you still think Placido Polanco is bottom tier after the ALL-STAR voting? lol
OK, so he should have been in the 4th tier. Big whoop. I’m a Phils fan, I like Polanco. A lot of his value is in his defense, and his ability to play “small ball”… which is not a part of most Roto leagues.
After a blazing hot start, he’s hitting .274, with 4 HR, 3 SB and solid R and RBI totals. Lets not get all crazy because he’s on the all-star team.
His all-star selection at 3B just speaks to the dearth of talent at the position this year… which was mentioned in the piece.