2012 First Base Tiers: July
With Independence Day in the rear-view mirror and all but two teams (Royals and Nationals) having played their 81st game, it’s time for a midseason update to our first base rankings. Due to popular demand, the catchers (Buster Posey, Mike Napoli, Joe Mauer, Carlos Santana) have been left out of the rankings, ditto the middle infielders (Michael Young and Howie Kendrick). Here are the preseason, May, and June tiers for reference.
Tier One
Joey Votto
Miguel Cabrera
Paul Konerko
Albert Pujols
Prince Fielder
Votto is clearly the better hitter in baseball and at least in the conversation for the best all-around player in the game. Konerko has slowed down a bit since his “minor” wrist procedure but not enough to derail his season or dampened his expected fantasy production. The other three are pretty self-explanatory.
Tier Two
Edwin Encarnacion
Mark Trumbo
Billy Butler
Mark Teixeira
Adrian Gonzalez
Pablo Sandoval 
Allen Craig
Mike Morse
Sandoval came back from his injury as did Craig, who’s just been a monster at the plate. Lance Berkman‘s eventual return may cut into his playing though, which would be a shame. Both the Cardinals and fantasy owners need that bat in the lineup. Encarnacion and Trumbo give you Tier One production without the track record, though Gonzalez and Teixeira have slid out of that top bracket despite their histories.
Tier Three
Paul Goldschmidt
Adam Dunn
Bryan LaHair
Corey Hart
Kevin Youkilis
Adam LaRoche
Freddie Freeman
Brandon Belt
Belt has grabbed hold of an everyday spot with his production and that’s a good thing for all involved. LaHair has cooled off of late but I still think he’s going to produce enough in the second half to be worth a starting spot. He is just a platoon bat, however. Youkilis has a clear shot at playing time now and although he isn’t the Youk of old, he’s still better than so many first basemen out there.
Tier Four
Lucas Duda
Eric Hosmer 
Michael Cuddyer
Ike Davis
Carlos Pena
Anthony Rizzo
Justin Morneau
Kendrys Morales
We’ve gotten to the point where sending Hosmer back to Triple-A has to be a serious consideration, which is sad to see. Rizzo was recalled not too long ago and has done well so far. Davis still isn’t back to being the guy he was before his injury last year, but he’s been substantially better of late.
Tier Five
Garrett Jones
Chris Davis
Mitch Moreland
Yonder Alonso
Carlos Lee
Luke Scott
Mark Reynolds
Todd Helton
Matt Adams
Logan Morrison
Daniel Murphy
Justin Smoak
Lee didn’t jump in the rankings because of the trade, he just came back from his hamstring injury. If anything, the move out of Minute Maid Park will hurt his production. Scott has been brutal since coming off the DL, like no hits in 22 plate appearances brutal. It was nice of Murphy to finally chip in a few homers, that’s always a plus.
Tier Six
Adam Lind
Matt Carpenter
Ty Wigginton
Casey McGehee
James Loney
Shelley Duncan
John Mayberry Jr.
Casey Kotchman
Mike Carp
Jesus Guzman
Juan Rivera
In our spectrum of adequacy, these guys range anywhere from regrettable to participatory.
Off The Radar (injuries, minors, etc.)
Lance Berkman
Ryan Howard
Victor Martinez
Gaby Sanchez
Mat Gamel
Aubrey Huff
Brett Pill
Matt LaPorta
Kila Ka’aihue
Chris Parmelee
Brett Wallace
Daric Barton
Brandon Allen
Puma and Howard will be back before long and there’s a non-zero chance V-Mart will play this year. I don’t think it’ll be enough to justify carrying him in the DL spot all season, however.
You forgot about me!
Can I get an amen from those who find Brandon Belt lovers to be a bit annoying? An amen?
Uh… here’s the thing about Brandon Belt — he’s not a good standard 5×5 fantasy player (yet, I guess, but he hasn’t done anything impressive since 2010… and most of that success was at a low level… so I’ll just say he isn’t very good).
The walks are nice in the real thing, but batting in the bottom half of the Giants lineup? Not too good. Too many strikeouts, bad batting average. Limited power in a park that suppresses it.
Over Cuddyer? Hosmer? Not a good call.
what about David Ortiz? He qualifies at first in some leagues now that he’s started 5 games there.
Do you really need Axisa to tell you where Ortiz ranks?
Youk should not be on here since Konerko is. Keep Youk on the 3B list.
@ DD You can’t just look past Youkilis and imagine he’s not there? Next time should the editors contact you before publishing?
This. Buy this logic Cabrera, Trumbo, Sandoval, Morse, Cuddyer, Duda, and Murphy need to be omitted even though they’re eligible at first base in virtually every format.
What’s the deal with the Hosmer hate? He hit .270/.340/.438 in June despite a .269 BABIP for the month. On the season, his .240 BABIP is 74 points lower than last year despite his LD% holding steady and a 4% drop in IFFBs.
I pretty much agree with this. I have Hosmer in a dynasty league and you couldn’t get me to bite on a trade for him. Seasonal, sure, you can think about benching him if you have better options right now, but I’ll keep the faith.
Let’s see. Those June numbers rank between Aoki and Michael Saund….. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
True enough, but a first baseman with a shot at a 20-20 season is unusual and fairly valuable, assuming he can correct his BABIP woes (which should also boost the R/RBI). I’d probably separate Hosmer, Duda, and Cuddyer into their own tier, and have a finger on the trigger ready to bump up Rizzo and Davis if they stay hot for another few weeks.
His wRC+ also managed to top that of Harper, Stanton, Fielder, Freese, Granderson, Dunn, Andrus, Prado, Napoli, Moustakas, Kipnis, Kinsler, Teixeira, Adam Jones, Adrain Gonzalez, and Josh Hamilton. The direct comparisons aren’t what to look at.
We should be giving attention to the fact that his play was much better in June than it has been this season. The point I’m getting at (as others are) is that it’s weird to say Hosmer should be sent to AAA for doing poorly right when he got done with a solid month.
Hosmer is not getting sent to AAA, unless someone bent time and space to roll back the calendar by a month without telling me. April and May were poor, June was good enough (120 wRC+) for management to conclude that sitting him for a few days did the trick. Heck, even when things were going poorly his manager said publicly that he was hitting the ball hard and getting unlucky. I highly doubt he was ever in serious danger of being sent down, and if he ever was that danger has passed.
I’m not really sure what Belt’s done that earns him a spot in the tier above Duda, Cuddyer, Hosmer, Davis, and Rizzo. Yes, he’s played okay the last few weeks, and he does seem to finally have any everyday spot, but since last year over 425 PAs he’s hit .243 with 13 homers and 8 steals with a 25% strikeout rate and .305 BABIP. That’s not terrible, but its not appreciably better than any of those other guys.
The same is basically true of Freeman. Neither one of these guys has done anything to separate themselves from the other young first base-eligibles lumped into the tier below.
Duda has just as much pop as Freeman, runs the same amount (read: never), and he walks more and makes more contact (They both have high K rates right now, but Duda’s SwStrike% and Z-Contact% are both considerably better, and he’s shown a better feel for the zone in the past than Freeman). Hosmer has flashed at least as much pop and speed as Belt, but Hosmer’s AVG issues are all BABIP, while Belt’s are all K%. I’d trade Belt for Hosmer without much thought, ditto Freeman and Duda, too (though in the latter case positional flexibility is a bigger separator so perhaps not entirely relevant to this discussion).
I have a hard time “clearly” seeing Votto as the best hitter in baseball while Andrew McCutchen is playing the way he is. Votto makes a strong case, but that’s a lack of love for McCutchen.
It’s also a lack of love for Wright, Trout, Bourn, Ruiz, Cano, and Braun, all of whom have WARs that are less than Vottos but more than McCutchen’s.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0
Even if you want to just look at offense, Votto’s .469 OBP puts him in a completely different class from all other hitters, even McCutchen’s still-amazing .412.
he said “hitter” not “player”. McCutchen is a wonderful overall player but it will take more than two months of an unsustainable .360 AVG to put him in the same class as Joey Votto based purely on the results at the dish with a piece of lumber.
despite McCutchen’s wonderful start Votto is still ahead of him this year in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+….. and the career numbers aren’t even close.
Someone hasn’t been paying attention on Hosmer. Consider sending him back to triple-A, what? He hasn’t met his lofty expectations, but he’s certainly been serviceable, especially lately.
And Ike Davis has been genuinely hot for a few weeks now… not enough to trust long term, but it’s a fair bet he won’t sink down to the depths of where he started the year.