2012 First Base Tiers: Preseason
Two weeks ago we rolled out or consensus first base rankings, and last week I picked them apart and wrote about some things I didn’t necessarily agree with. The tiers below are my personal rankings, dividing the players into groups based on their approximate fantasy value. These rankings will be updated every month throughout the season.
Tier One
Miguel Cabrera
Albert Pujols
Joey Votto
Adrian Gonzalez
Prince Fielder
These five are the very best of the best, all first round fantasy options expected to produce huge numbers. Miggy’s fractured orbital bone could delay the start of his season, in which case I’d bump him behind Pujols. Either way, you’re going to get massive production.
Tier Two
Mark Teixeira
Paul Konerko
Pablo Sandoval
Eric Hosmer
Carlos Santana
Mike Napoli
Lance Berkman
Second tier first baseman will give you top tier stats at basically any other position. Sandoval (3B), Santana (C), and Napoli (C) have more fantasy value at different positions, but they do currently have 1B eligibility. Teixeira could jump into the top tier if he stops dragging down his average by trying to yank everything over the short right field porch at Yankee Stadium. Hosmer’s ranking may be aggressive, but I don’t think there’s anyone out there who doesn’t love the upside.
Tier Three
Kevin Youkilis
Billy Butler
Mike Morse
Freddie Freeman
Nick Swisher
Ike Davis
Howie Kendrick
Michael Young
Youkilis is injury prone but still very productive. Morse is currently dealing with a lat problem and is in jeopardy of missing Opening Day, though I would have had him in the back-end of Tier Two if we knew he was going to be healthy from the get go. Lat and oblique problems are very tricky, they can linger for a long time. I’ve been saying this all offseason, but I expect a big breakout from Davis. I just can’t rank him any higher right now given the injury concerns. Swisher (OF), Kendrick (2B), and Young (2B and 3B) are among the 1B-eligible guys with more value at other positions.
Tier Four
Carlos Pena
Michael Cuddyer
Mark Reynolds
Ryan Howard
Joe Mauer
Paul Goldschmidt
Mark Trumbo
Lucas Duda
Gaby Sanchez
We’re starting to get into the flawed three-true outcome types now. Word is that Howard’s injury may now linger into May and possibly June, but we have yet to hear definitive word from the team. I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt for now. I’m a Goldschmidt fan but I don’t love him, though I can definitely understand arguments saying he should be higher.
Tier Five
Adam Dunn
Edwin Encarnacion
Brandon Belt
Todd Helton
Carlos Lee
Garrett Jones
Yonder Alonso
Mike Carp
Daniel Murphy
Luke Scott
Casey Kotchman
Mitch Moreland
I fully expect Dunn to rebound this year, though maybe not all the way to the guy he was just two years ago. I love me some Brandon Belt, though we still don’t know how much playing time he’ll actually get this season. Let’s all hope he tears the cover off the ball right out of the gate so the Giants have no choice but to play him every day. Yonder’s opposite field power fits well in Petco Park and I wouldn’t be surprised if he pokes 25 or so homers this year.
Tier Six
James Loney
Aubrey Huff
Kendrys Morales
Justin Morneau
Justin Smoak
John Mayberry Jr.
Adam Lind
Brandon Allen
Anthony Rizzo
Jesus Guzman
Adam LaRoche
Juan Rivera
Chris Davis
Brett Wallace
There is some upside in this group. Kendrys could end up a Tier Two guy by the end of the season, but I just can’t rank him any higher given how much time he’s missed with that ankle/leg injury. Smoak could step forward with some good health, and with Rizzo we’re just waiting for the inevitable call-up.
Bottom of the Barrel
Ty Wigginton
Matt LaPorta
Daric Barton
Shelley Duncan
Casey Blake
Derrek Lee
Victor Martinez
Just … no.
No Mat Gamel?
Not eligible yet, only two games at first in his MLB career.
Oh ok. You’re right – he’s only DH eligible right now in many leagues apparently.
What is a good resource for looking up what positions a player has started at game by game, season by season, career, etc?
Ash, if you play Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball, then just click the players name, and then click the Career tab. At the bottom it will tell you which positions he’s played for each season he’s had in the majors.
To find out how far a players is from eligibility in Yahoo!, just hold your mouse over the Players tab in your league and when the drop down menu comes up, click Position Eligibility. There you can track who is close to gaining a new position. This tracks hitters as well as pitchers and can be a useful tool when looking for a sneaky pick up.
That is a big miss. He’d be right in the Tier 4 jumble for me (although I’d have Paul Goldschmidt & Michael Cuddyer at least somewhat higher).
Adam Lind in Tier 5 behind guys like Casey Kotchman and Garrett Jones? I recognize there isn’t a ton to like about Lind, but can’t we AT LEAST pencil him in for 20+ homers and 80+ RBIs. I fear the hate has gone too far here.
agreed, that’s a ridiculously low ranking for a guy projected to hit 22-27 HR with 75-94 RBI. Yes, his AVG sucks, and he won’t steal any bases, but how is he that far behind, say, Nick Swisher?
You answered it – he isn’t..
Even Plaxico knows it!!
Yeah, I thought they forgot Lind until I read this comment. Pretty absurd ranking. I mean your seriously going to take James Loney or Casey Kotchman over a guy who hit 26 homers and 88 rbis in 120 games last year?
Tier 5? I see him in tier 6 above, making this even more ridiculous. Yes there is reason to worry about him hitting consistently enough to play against lefties but I don’t feel he has gone off the cliff yet. The guy is only 28, playing in a strong lineup and plays decent defensively, hit 26 HRs last year and drove in 87 runs. Hell, he’s got Mark Reynolds in tier four!!!
This reminds me of when Eno had Encarnacion ranked dead last at 30th for third base in a preseason ranking on another website. I commented at the time that it was an irresponsible ranking, he was better than more than half of the guys ahead of him on the list… and he was. Now people are talking about him as a sleeper for deeper drafts. I suspect Lind will surprise some people like that this year despite his poor spring so far.
Yonder’s opposite field power fits well in Petco Park and I wouldn’t be surprised if he pokes 25 or so homers this year.
That’s a Bold Prediction.
It seems wasteful of time & thought to Tier all those guys with position eligibility at 3b, OF, C, 2b; if you play them at 1b, you’ve drafted poorly.
And yet it’s incredibly valuable to know that if I can’t get a good value for any “true” 1b in the third tier but I’ve gotten Kendrick for a decent price for example, I know I can slot Kendrick at 1B and go after another 1B OR a high-end 2B later in the draft. Positional flexibility allows for more of just that – flexibility
Where would Posey slot into here?
Brandon Belt should be far lower. His optimistic projections for the 2012 season were what his junior Paul Goldschmidt had last season. Though I wouldn’t draft any Giants 1B with the PAs divided between four players.
Lind ranking that low is absurd. Granted his BABIP was high through the first half of the season, but he was absolutely raking prior to being injured last year….
This writer is clueless!!!!
The fourth exclamation mark makes a compelling case.
This article is an excellent example of why using a tier approach is such a bad idea. Let’s take a look at “Tier 2.” Standard advice is to wait near the end and get one of the last couple of guys. Which in this case leaves you paying something like Tier 2 price for Lance Freaking Berkman.
where is this standard advice you speak of?
John Mayberry vs. Yonder Alonso?
Hope you’re right on Alonso.
In what league does Youk still have 1B eligibility? He didn’t play there much at all last year.
Also, listing those guys like Santana, Posey, and Napoli here when you just aren’t going to see anybody play them there gives a false sense of depth at the position. Once you get past the top tier it is a no man’s land of potential, risky propositions, and has-beens. When you throw in that Morse and Davis have injuries or valley fever, Youk isn’t eligible in most leagues, and you are left with a dogs breakfast after the first 7-8 guys.
Looking back on it now, this might be the funniest piece of satire ever written.