2012 Holds Tiers: Preseason
A disclaimer I must add is that this is possibly the worst time to create holds tiers that I could ever imagine. The injuries to closers such as Joakim Soria and Ryan Madson and attempting to judge who will be their replacements make these rankings difficult. The Royals are supposedly leaning towards Jonathan Broxton, but how long will that last for? The Reds are considering going with a closer by committee, but if Sean Marshall starts locking down saves, will they be willing to move pitchers around late in games?
I did not want to get into a big guessing game in that regard. For sake of these rankings, I assumed Marshall and Broxton would close. Below my personal, not RotoGraphs’, holds tiers for the upcoming season.
Tier One
Jonny Venters
David Robertson
Mike Adams
Tyler Clippard
Sergio Romo
Vinnie Pestano
This was a pretty easy list for me. While I do think Pestano is a better pitcher than Chris Perez, I expect Perez to get his job back once he returns and hold onto it for most of the season. Of course he could falter, as he is not that good of a pitcher, but a pitcher can get injured at any moment and push one of these first tier guys into ninth inning roles.
Tier Two
Glen Perkins
Scott Downs
Eric O’Flaherty
David Hernandez
Luke Gregerson
This second tier is filled with great arms as well. O’Flaherty posted an ERA under 1.00 last year while Hernandez and Perkins had tremendous breakout seasons. Gregerson and Downs are not too shabby themselves.
Tier Three
Rex Brothers
Greg Holland
Rafael Soriano
Jesse Crain
Kenley Jansen
Addison Reed
This part of the list features many pitchers who could end up closing at some point this season. The White Sox could end up with Crain, Reed, and Matt Thornton all netting similar save totals by season’s end. There is a lot of talent in this group, and I would not be surprised to see any of them end up in the top tier in holds by the end of the season.
Tier Four
Aroldis Chapman
Joaquin Benoit
Antonio Bastardo
Joel Peralta
Marc Melancon
Ocatavio Dotel
Mark Rzepczynski
Koji Uehara
Francisco Rodriguez
There is slightly less potential in these arms, but this is still a pretty quality bunch. Relievers are extremely volatile, so many of these pitchers could move up or down the tiers throughout the season. Chapman may stay in the rotation after a stellar spring, which would obviously take him out of these rankings.
Tier Five
Jose Veras
Tony Sipp
Evan Meek
Brad Lidge
Francisco Cordero
Andrew Cashner
Brian Fuentes
Kerry Wood
Nick Massett
Tom Wilhelmsen
While this group is less talented and seems to be filled with either very young or very old pitchers, there is some respectable talent here as well. Cashner is a guy to eye on, as he could end up being one of the better back end relievers in the game. If you are in a league with holds, waiting on some guys in the fifth tier could certainly be an option worth using.
Jansen is a tier one holds guy who should be switched with perkins.
Issue with Jansen is the likelihood that he ends up being the closer, which would knock him down from this list.
So is it a strict ranking of your expectations of Holds totals? Or do you also factor in ERA/WHIP/K value?
Those are factored in, but players with good odds of becoming closer are pushed back a bit. I’d say Holland and Jansen have the best odds, with Pestano not far behind. It’s hard to project due to so many variables. Pitching wise, Jansen and Holland would be first tier.
…except Guerra has the job, has “closer stuff” himself, and converted 21 of 23 saves last year for the dodgers…I think Guerra’s job is much safer than many are giving him credit for…and Kenley had a rough April/May last year for anyone that remembers taking him as a SV spec. in 2011. I think the assumption that Broxton will return to form (a risk only the royals were willing to take in the off season) is less likely to payoff than the assumption that Guerra holds on to the job they’ve already announced he has…
Ha, “closer stuff” Jansen’s k/9 was 16.10 compared to Guerra’s 7.33.
good old internet snark! haha. you must have missed the problematizing quotation marks i put around “closer stuff” as an indication that such an idea is already questionable- and merely an indication that he does have a mid-90s heater. there are enough guys with k/9 like guerra that are “proven closers” (again, note the panic quotes!) that it isn’t stupid to think he’ll keep the job so long as he can consistently do it. besides, jansen being used in high-levergage situations is probably a better optimization of his skill set, since the ridiculous k-rate is likely EVEN MORE useful with inherited runners than with a clean slate at the start of an inning.
Confused about Gregerson over Cashner. Everything I have seen says that Cashner has the 8th. Plus, he has been lights out this spring. Is he not a better source of holds? Too much risk?
No Henry Rodriguez? His wicked fastball and occasionally disappearing control should put him solidly in Tier Four. He’s basically Aroldis Chapman without the notoriety or contract.
If they’ll give Brad Brach a few tries, I bet he starts being a solid 7th inning guy before midseason with great ratios.
Probably one of a million guys I could name but no love for Mujica ? Setup guy for the Marlins as I see it, pitching in high leverage situations, he’s on my team.
+1 to this. I gotta think this one was an oversight, because Mujica should be good for 25-30 holds this year. I’d rather have him over anyone in the Tier Five.
yep…grabbed him with my last pick. If he pitches well he could hold off Nunez (or whatever his name is) when he returns…should be good for around 30 holds if so.
I had Romo in a holds league last year and dropped him. There is no better pitcher in baseball on an inning per inning basis, but Romo is used very sporadically and infrequently. He pitches so few innings (48 last year) compared to the other top tier guys that he won’t have a big impact on your ratios nor be a steady source of holds week to week.
Some guys who could easily produce 20+ holds that didn’t get a mention and won’t hurt your ERA/WHIP: (lefty specialists are awesome for cheap holds)
Darren Oliver
Bill Bray
Edward Mujica
Matt Belisle (throws more innings than the average reliever too)
Youngsters to watch that just need to grab a role and run w/ it:
Nick Hagadone
Brad Boxberger
Shawn Tolleson
Eduardo Sanchez
I’d put “10″ on Parnell taking Francisco’s spot like Walden did Cordero last year. Parnell throws strikes and he’s unhittable. Cashner I see as top tier, but I do not see them throwing him into too many closing situations when they want him in the rotation next year, so I’d go Brach.
Last I saw, Parnell is fighting for a roster spot. That 4bb/9 indicates he does not throw strikes often enough to supplant both Francisco and Rauch.
Plus, unless I’m missing something intangible, his stats suggest he was quite hittable last year. And if you don’t hit him he’ll as likely walk you as get you out…
Parnell is a lock for the pen.
He’s been lights out and has show improved control by leaps and bounds this spring.
He also has a new grip on his curve or something to that effect. And everyone from the Mets to opposing scouts are impressed with it.
He’s easily the most impressive reliever in camp.
All that being said, Rauch is likely to be the 8th inning guy to start due to experience/contract. Plus the Mets may not win enough games for him to be anything other than a help in the K department.
How much down the list does Salas sit?
I would probably take him ahead of most listed tier 5 guys.
I’m surprised Benoit isn’t higher? He had 29 last year , isn’t a threat unless Valverde gets hurt, and Detroit might win more games so he will be in line for more holds ( maybe ????)
Ditto Scott Downs.
I don’t see detroit winning more games. Because Valverde will blow more. (aka some) But yeah he might get a few more opps.
I’m surprised not to see Fautino De Los Santos anywhere on this list. Is he too far down the depth chart to get holds?
I imagine saves have value in most leagues (nearly all, if not all). Therefore the potential to become closer should not detract from a setup guy’s value. If he becomes closer, then you can just grab another setup guy off the FA pool.
I know that HLDs fluctuate year to year, but you’d ideally want to have a team that doesn’t score a lot of runs and a starting rotation that don’t have work horses.
For example, I looked at Bastardo look and hard, but kept passing up on him because of Lee and Halladay who could go 8 easily. I ended up taking O’Flaherty as my #2 hold guy because I expect the Braves starters to have mostly 6 inning outings, creating many HLD opportunities. Even if the difference was just 4 or 5 HLDs, that’s worth it for me.
There are relievers not mentioned that I picked up for nothing in a 16 team league. They’ll be good in the K/9, K, WHIP, ERA cats, and should pick up a bunch of holds as well, even if they’re not “first-in-line” now.
Darren Oliver
Casey Janssen
Kris Medlen (still hoping he makes the rotation, but otherwise still great)
What about Alexi Ogando? He’s heading back to the bullpen.
Steve Cishek? He was pretty good last year and without oviedo he should be the Marlins’ primary setup man.
I would put Francisco Rodriguez in the 2nd Tier as a worst case scenario. He should be a lock for at least 25 holds, probably well over 30 if he can stay healthy. Their is no discussion of him becoming the closer, and Axford becoming the set-up man. He has never been less than 9.0 K/9 in his career, and his xFIP has been sub 2.75 the last two seasons.
To me he is a guy that will not only rack up the holds, but also get a good amount of K’s and have a very solid ERA.
H. Rodriguez. Formerly the high-WHIP king should be in the tier 5 group, possibly the tier 4. Greatly improved command means fewer walks without losing the Ks. The guy throws gas.
Benoit has to be tier 3. At least as good as Crain.
Tony Sipp should be higher than a Tier 5, If Pestano is a Tier 1. I think he had 24 last year and I see no reason for less, except that the Indians may not have a lead in 24 games in 2012.
Cashner averaged 102.2 mph on his fastball this spring. He locked down the setup roll