2012 xBABIP Spreadsheet

Short and simple. Using slash 12′s batted-ball-based xBABIP, updated by Jeff Zimmerman, I pulled together the 2012 xBABIPs for all players with more than 300 PAs. I’ve posted them below, sorted from ‘luckiest’ to ‘least lucky,’ and the full document is also here on a google spreadsheet for your use.

Enjoy!


Name BABIP xBABIP xBABIP-BABIP
Justin Ruggiano 0.401 0.3201 -0.0809
Tyler Colvin 0.364 0.3030 -0.0610
Torii Hunter 0.389 0.3305 -0.0585
Jayson Werth 0.356 0.3022 -0.0538
Miguel Montero 0.362 0.3088 -0.0532
Andrew McCutchen 0.375 0.3294 -0.0456
Joey Votto 0.404 0.3619 -0.0421
Matt Carpenter 0.346 0.3044 -0.0416
Jonny Gomes 0.348 0.3064 -0.0416
Melky Cabrera 0.379 0.3374 -0.0416
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0.358 0.3191 -0.0389
Willie Bloomquist 0.362 0.3233 -0.0387
David Wright 0.347 0.3134 -0.0336
Austin Jackson 0.371 0.3386 -0.0324
Shin-Soo Choo 0.353 0.3213 -0.0317
Alex Gordon 0.356 0.3251 -0.0309
Mark Trumbo 0.316 0.2853 -0.0307
Andy Dirks 0.365 0.3344 -0.0306
Ian Desmond 0.332 0.3030 -0.0290
Chris Johnson 0.354 0.3250 -0.0290
Chase Headley 0.337 0.3083 -0.0287
Joe Mauer 0.364 0.3357 -0.0283
Howie Kendrick 0.347 0.3189 -0.0281
Ryan Braun 0.346 0.3180 -0.0280
Mike Trout 0.383 0.3559 -0.0271
Danny Espinosa 0.333 0.3060 -0.0270
Carlos Gonzalez 0.352 0.3256 -0.0264
Matt Holliday 0.337 0.3107 -0.0263
Adrian Gonzalez 0.334 0.3090 -0.0250
Chris Nelson 0.374 0.3499 -0.0241
Dexter Fowler 0.39 0.3661 -0.0239
Quintin Berry 0.348 0.3250 -0.0230
Jonathan Lucroy 0.338 0.3150 -0.0230
Todd Frazier 0.316 0.2940 -0.0220
Yoenis Cespedes 0.326 0.3044 -0.0216
Matt Kemp 0.354 0.3327 -0.0213
Brandon Belt 0.351 0.3299 -0.0211
Michael Bourn 0.349 0.3293 -0.0197
Bryan LaHair 0.358 0.3387 -0.0193
Nick Swisher 0.324 0.3054 -0.0186
David Murphy 0.333 0.3157 -0.0173
Miguel Cabrera 0.331 0.3146 -0.0164
Chris Denorfia 0.323 0.3068 -0.0162
Skip Schumaker 0.332 0.3159 -0.0161
Buster Posey 0.368 0.3527 -0.0153
Aramis Ramirez 0.31 0.2951 -0.0149
Justin Upton 0.327 0.3124 -0.0146
David Ortiz 0.316 0.3015 -0.0145
Carlos Ruiz 0.339 0.3248 -0.0142
Chris Davis 0.335 0.3217 -0.0133
Allen Craig 0.334 0.3221 -0.0119
David Freese 0.352 0.3402 -0.0118
Giancarlo Stanton 0.344 0.3326 -0.0114
Mike Moustakas 0.274 0.2628 -0.0112
Casper Wells 0.282 0.2740 -0.0080
Michael Morse 0.339 0.3310 -0.0080
Billy Butler 0.341 0.3335 -0.0075
Paul Goldschmidt 0.34 0.3327 -0.0073
Alfonso Soriano 0.303 0.2962 -0.0068
Jeff Keppinger 0.332 0.3256 -0.0064
Aaron Hill 0.317 0.3107 -0.0063
Alex Rios 0.323 0.3170 -0.0060
Cody Ross 0.317 0.3112 -0.0058
Carlos Gomez 0.296 0.2902 -0.0058
Adrian Beltre 0.319 0.3134 -0.0056
J.D. Martinez 0.29 0.2847 -0.0053
Jason Heyward 0.319 0.3137 -0.0053
Corey Hart 0.318 0.3132 -0.0048
Everth Cabrera 0.336 0.3313 -0.0047
Jon Jay 0.355 0.3507 -0.0043
Adam Lind 0.282 0.2778 -0.0042
Donovan Solano 0.357 0.3530 -0.0040
Mitch Moreland 0.306 0.3021 -0.0039
Alex Rodriguez 0.323 0.3196 -0.0034
Pablo Sandoval 0.301 0.2983 -0.0027
Paul Konerko 0.312 0.3100 -0.0020
Ryan Zimmerman 0.313 0.3115 -0.0015
Jordan Pacheco 0.344 0.3425 -0.0015
A.J. Ellis 0.329 0.3279 -0.0011
Jesus Guzman 0.297 0.2964 -0.0006
Angel Pagan 0.329 0.3286 -0.0004
Brennan Boesch 0.284 0.2839 -0.0001
Pedro Alvarez 0.308 0.3081 0.0001
Chris Heisey 0.328 0.3287 0.0007
Alex Avila 0.313 0.3145 0.0015
Cameron Maybin 0.293 0.2954 0.0024
Josh Hamilton 0.32 0.3231 0.0031
Ryan Doumit 0.306 0.3092 0.0032
Starlin Castro 0.315 0.3184 0.0034
Alejandro De Aza 0.339 0.3438 0.0048
Desmond Jennings 0.298 0.3029 0.0049
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.304 0.3093 0.0053
Sean Rodriguez 0.26 0.2656 0.0056
Adam LaRoche 0.298 0.3037 0.0057
J.P. Arencibia 0.281 0.2868 0.0058
Derek Jeter 0.347 0.3533 0.0063
Neil Walker 0.326 0.3324 0.0064
Kendrys Morales 0.315 0.3215 0.0065
Evan Longoria 0.313 0.3204 0.0074
Albert Pujols 0.282 0.2904 0.0084
Asdrubal Cabrera 0.303 0.3120 0.0090
Dan Uggla 0.283 0.2922 0.0092
Yonder Alonso 0.318 0.3272 0.0092
Chipper Jones 0.298 0.3077 0.0097
Andre Ethier 0.333 0.3428 0.0098
Alcides Escobar 0.344 0.3539 0.0099
Matt Joyce 0.281 0.2918 0.0108
Wilson Betemit 0.336 0.3470 0.0110
Nelson Cruz 0.301 0.3124 0.0114
Jack Hannahan 0.299 0.3108 0.0118
Michael Brantley 0.31 0.3219 0.0119
Justin Maxwell 0.292 0.3041 0.0121
Ryan Hanigan 0.302 0.3148 0.0128
Jose Altuve 0.321 0.3338 0.0128
Greg Dobbs 0.321 0.3339 0.0129
Martin Prado 0.322 0.3355 0.0135
Brandon Crawford 0.307 0.3206 0.0136
Daniel Nava 0.295 0.3089 0.0139
Kurt Suzuki 0.269 0.2831 0.0141
Josh Willingham 0.287 0.3013 0.0143
Marco Scutaro 0.319 0.3334 0.0144
Hunter Pence 0.29 0.3045 0.0145
David DeJesus 0.301 0.3157 0.0147
Prince Fielder 0.321 0.3360 0.0150
B.J. Upton 0.294 0.3093 0.0153
Gerardo Parra 0.323 0.3384 0.0154
Hanley Ramirez 0.29 0.3054 0.0154
Clint Barmes 0.28 0.2955 0.0155
Brett Lawrie 0.311 0.3267 0.0157
Garrett Jones 0.293 0.3089 0.0159
Elvis Andrus 0.332 0.3482 0.0162
Jason Kubel 0.296 0.3125 0.0165
Steve Lombardozzi 0.304 0.3208 0.0168
Shane Victorino 0.278 0.2951 0.0171
Delmon Young 0.299 0.3161 0.0171
Will Venable 0.32 0.3372 0.0172
Daniel Murphy 0.329 0.3466 0.0176
Kyle Seager 0.286 0.3037 0.0177
Jay Bruce 0.283 0.3009 0.0179
Dustin Pedroia 0.3 0.3183 0.0183
Yadier Molina 0.316 0.3345 0.0185
Brandon Phillips 0.298 0.3172 0.0192
Coco Crisp 0.28 0.2998 0.0198
Lucas Duda 0.301 0.3208 0.0198
Jordan Schafer 0.304 0.3241 0.0201
Scott Hairston 0.287 0.3075 0.0205
Wilin Rosario 0.289 0.3100 0.0210
Erick Aybar 0.316 0.3370 0.0210
Jose Tabata 0.287 0.3083 0.0213
Ian Kinsler 0.27 0.2913 0.0213
Maicer Izturis 0.289 0.3105 0.0215
Eric Chavez 0.3 0.3217 0.0217
Kelly Johnson 0.292 0.3141 0.0221
Jimmy Rollins 0.262 0.2842 0.0222
Bryce Harper 0.31 0.3324 0.0224
Denard Span 0.315 0.3380 0.0230
Carlos Beltran 0.291 0.3141 0.0231
Jarrod Dyson 0.318 0.3413 0.0233
Robinson Cano 0.326 0.3496 0.0236
Rickie Weeks 0.285 0.3091 0.0241
Omar Infante 0.291 0.3153 0.0243
Jeff Francoeur 0.272 0.2966 0.0246
Ben Revere 0.325 0.3501 0.0251
Ty Wigginton 0.275 0.3003 0.0253
Michael Saunders 0.297 0.3227 0.0257
Ryan Ludwick 0.299 0.3254 0.0264
Jose Reyes 0.298 0.3247 0.0267
Anthony Rizzo 0.31 0.3368 0.0268
Carlos Santana 0.278 0.3048 0.0268
Joaquin Arias 0.295 0.3219 0.0269
Luke Scott 0.259 0.2859 0.0269
Jamey Carroll 0.306 0.3330 0.0270
Gaby Sanchez 0.245 0.2725 0.0275
Mark Reynolds 0.282 0.3096 0.0276
Drew Stubbs 0.29 0.3176 0.0276
Rafael Furcal 0.289 0.3173 0.0283
Rajai Davis 0.314 0.3429 0.0289
Ryan Roberts 0.267 0.2959 0.0289
Alexi Casilla 0.283 0.3126 0.0296
Josh Thole 0.273 0.3027 0.0297
Nick Markakis 0.31 0.3398 0.0298
Mike Aviles 0.269 0.2988 0.0298
Ruben Tejada 0.339 0.3691 0.0301
Justin Morneau 0.294 0.3241 0.0301
Alexei Ramirez 0.29 0.3202 0.0302
Chris Young 0.263 0.2933 0.0303
Salvador Perez 0.299 0.3301 0.0311
Gregor Blanco 0.318 0.3492 0.0312
Casey McGehee 0.248 0.2795 0.0315
Ben Zobrist 0.296 0.3275 0.0315
Robert Andino 0.266 0.2982 0.0322
Scott Rolen 0.282 0.3148 0.0328
Adam Jones 0.313 0.3466 0.0336
Carlos Quentin 0.252 0.2859 0.0339
Josh Reddick 0.269 0.3029 0.0339
Luis Valbuena 0.26 0.2940 0.0340
Jhonny Peralta 0.275 0.3092 0.0342
J.J. Hardy 0.253 0.2877 0.0347
Norichika Aoki 0.304 0.3388 0.0348
Zack Cozart 0.282 0.3169 0.0349
Elliot Johnson 0.316 0.3512 0.0352
Matt Wieters 0.274 0.3092 0.0352
Ryan Theriot 0.308 0.3433 0.0353
Jed Lowrie 0.257 0.2927 0.0357
Brandon Inge 0.266 0.3021 0.0361
Justin Smoak 0.242 0.2782 0.0362
Juan Pierre 0.327 0.3632 0.0362
Jason Kipnis 0.291 0.3274 0.0364
Jesus Montero 0.292 0.3289 0.0369
Seth Smith 0.285 0.3219 0.0369
Carlos Lee 0.273 0.3099 0.0369
Mike Napoli 0.273 0.3101 0.0371
Edwin Encarnacion 0.266 0.3038 0.0378
A.J. Pierzynski 0.28 0.3178 0.0378
Dayan Viciedo 0.286 0.3245 0.0385
Nyjer Morgan 0.296 0.3349 0.0389
Miguel Olivo 0.266 0.3054 0.0394
Michael Young 0.299 0.3393 0.0403
Freddie Freeman 0.295 0.3365 0.0415
Juan Rivera 0.245 0.2868 0.0418
Alberto Callaspo 0.268 0.3104 0.0424
Andres Torres 0.293 0.3355 0.0425
Yunel Escobar 0.273 0.3158 0.0428
Gordon Beckham 0.254 0.2975 0.0435
Carlos Pena 0.264 0.3077 0.0437
Jemile Weeks 0.256 0.2999 0.0439
Dustin Ackley 0.265 0.3093 0.0443
Alexi Amarista 0.265 0.3097 0.0447
Kevin Youkilis 0.268 0.3129 0.0449
John Mayberry 0.296 0.3413 0.0453
Rod Barajas 0.224 0.2693 0.0453
Mark Ellis 0.296 0.3416 0.0456
John Buck 0.235 0.2807 0.0457
Casey Kotchman 0.233 0.2804 0.0474
Brendan Ryan 0.244 0.2919 0.0479
Michael Cuddyer 0.287 0.3351 0.0481
Placido Polanco 0.274 0.3221 0.0481
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 0.265 0.3138 0.0488
Logan Morrison 0.248 0.2969 0.0489
Dee Gordon 0.281 0.3306 0.0496
Tyler Greene 0.292 0.3422 0.0502
Chase Utley 0.261 0.3116 0.0506
Raul Ibanez 0.243 0.2946 0.0516
Trevor Plouffe 0.244 0.2957 0.0517
Mark Teixeira 0.25 0.3022 0.0522
Brian McCann 0.234 0.2866 0.0526
Colby Rasmus 0.259 0.3118 0.0528
James Loney 0.269 0.3220 0.0530
John Jaso 0.298 0.3515 0.0535
Logan Forsythe 0.316 0.3697 0.0537
Alex Presley 0.273 0.3271 0.0541
Eric Hosmer 0.255 0.3093 0.0543
Ichiro Suzuki 0.3 0.3543 0.0543
Daniel Descalso 0.279 0.3347 0.0557
Brian Dozier 0.267 0.3228 0.0558
Darwin Barney 0.273 0.3293 0.0563
Jose Bautista 0.215 0.2720 0.0570
Ike Davis 0.246 0.3036 0.0576
Curtis Granderson 0.26 0.3229 0.0629
Cliff Pennington 0.259 0.3233 0.0643
Stephen Drew 0.275 0.3439 0.0689
Brian Bogusevic 0.257 0.3304 0.0734
Adam Dunn 0.246 0.3222 0.0762
Geovany Soto 0.222 0.3074 0.0854
Russell Martin 0.222 0.3129 0.0909



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Graphs: Baseball, Roto, Beer, brats (OK, no graphs for that...yet), repeat. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris.


12 Responses to “2012 xBABIP Spreadsheet”

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  1. ThirteenOfTwo says:

    Mother of God, you mean to tell me only ONE Mariner outperformed his xBABIP, and he wasn’t even a full-time player? That’s absurd. Casper Wells was the only lucky one, with a BABIP that exceeded his xBABIP by .008. The second luckiest was Kyle Seager… with a BABIP worse than his xBABIP by .0177. And John Jaso and his 140 wRC+ was the 17th-unluckiest hitter in the league?

    …so are the Mariners universally criminally underrated hitters, or does xBABIP need park factors?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Choo says:

      BABIP already excludes home runs, foul territory at Safeco is relatively neutral, and we lack evidence in support of marine layers boosting defensive range. No, the M’s were simply, and quite incredibly, crappy and unlucky in 2012. Crunlappucky, as the kids would say. I would love to see the exact opposite in 2013.

      Huge thanks for the list, Eno!

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • ThirteenOfTwo says:

        Interesting stat: the 2012 Mariners’ team BABIP on fly balls, at .082, was the lowest team BABIP on fly balls any team has posted since 2003 (when league average was so low I think there must have been a change in what constitutes a fly ball). By .016.

        Guys I think I know where all the doubles went

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  2. Train says:

    Wooo-hooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  3. Andrew says:

    Excellent work, Eno.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. jcxy says:

    AAAAAAMazing.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. Guest says:

    Does this still account for the shift for players like Dunn and Teixeira. I could be way off here but I noticed those two were near the top of the list and thought that their babip was not going to act as expected.

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  6. Robert Sargent says:

    Nice job. It is very useful to know who was lucky or not, relatively speaking. I hate it that so many of my fantasy players were near the bottom of the list this year! I would have rather been lucky than good.

    Just two questions…1) I wonder as well if this accounts for shifts and 2) if the formula for xBAPIP was working right, shouldn’t there be roughly equal numbers of lucky vs. unluckily hitters? It looks to me the list is heavily weighted to the unlucky side with more than twice as many hard luck players than lucky ones….

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. slash12 says:

    1) no, not directly, there’s no fangraphs stat that helps to indicate whether or not someone is being shifted.
    2) I’m not sure why this is happening, the equation is based on previous data, not this years data, and things change from year to year (new ballparks, shorter fences, maybe more line drives are classified as fly balls, maybe better defensive positioning). I wonder if the league BABIP is down (I’m too lazy to check).

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  8. JohnnyBigPotatoes says:

    Thanks Eno!

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  9. JohnnyBigPotatoes says:

    Hey Eno, it looks like the spreadsheet is using the “2009-2011 average” constants, rather than the 2012 constants.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  10. Nevin says:

    The number repetitively successful hitters around the top section of the “lucky” section makes me think there’s got to be something off with xBABIP.
    I’ve heard in the past, without going into it, that there’s evidence hitters have more control over BABIP results than do pitchers, with advanced and proprietary evidence that even pitchers can have a very small amount of control, presumably based on batted ball type tendencies. I’m going to have to look at xBABIP more. Either way, great data to see, and thank you for sharing it like this.

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