Not a whole lot changes during the first month of the season. There simply haven’t been enough plate appearances yet to knock established players for poor performances, ditto boosting them due to strong performances. Injury is the biggest reason why players move from tier to tier at this point of the season. Our preseason consensus rankings can be found right here while the April tiers are right here.
How much longer do we consider Pujols an elite player? He’s off to another slow start (89 wRC+) and it’s painful just watching him run these days because of his knees and plantar fasciitis and whatever else. The homers and RBI totals are still there, but everything else is going south. Pretty scary.
Big Papi is back from his Achilles/heels problem and he is mashin’ (246 wRC+). His performance will return to Earth as the season progresses, no doubt about it, but the track record is there. The only reason he’s not in Tier One are the lingering injury concerns. Gonzalez’s declining power, which Eno Sarris looked at in depth yesterday, is pretty terrifying. He can still hit for average and drive in runs with the best of them though.
I buy into Davis breaking out as a top first baseman thanks in part to the adjustments he’s made to get to the outside pitch, but I’m going to need to see a little more before running him higher up the ladder. Before this year he was just a homer source. Trumbo got off to a torrid start last year before disappearing in the second half, and I won’t made the mistake of buying into it so soon again.
Konerko and Davis are just bad at this point. They don’t look good at the plate and there really hasn’t been much of a hint of a breakout. I have (much) more faith in Konerko becoming useful again than I do Davis, but I’m still staying away right now.
It’s early, but Hosmer is really bumming me out. Outside of Freeman and Goldschmidt, when was the last time a true first base prospect legitimately hit their ceiling? Hosmer still has time of course, but the track record of young players at his position isn’t great.
Reynolds is off to a ridiculous start but at some point he’ll come back to reality with a low-.200 average, lots of pop, and not much else. I’d rank Berkman higher if he was showing a little more power and just wasn’t so damn injury prone. Overbay is worth owning in super-deep leagues if you only play him against righties and at Yankee Stadium.
John Mayberry Jr.
Sorry, but I’m not buying into Loney as a legit hitter just yet despite his awesome start. Dunn is partying like it’s 2011 while Hart and Teixeira are hurt with no real return date in sight. Could be two weeks, could be four. Hopefully you have a strong stopgap if they were your projected starters.
Print This Post