2017 Magazine Contributions

This season, I was lucky enough for a couple print publications, Lindy’s and The Fantasy Baseball Guide, asked me to contribute their fantasy preview magazines.  While the quality of both magazines is top notch, print publications have limited room for explanations and no ability for back-and-forth discussions. Today, I am going to go over my contributions which I feel could use more explanation and will answer any questions on my thought process.

Lindy’s

For Lindy’s, I participated in their 12-team mock draft ( standard team except 1 C, 4 OF, 8P) and I picked out of the 3rd position. Here is my team

Position – Name (Round Drafted)
C – Buster Posey (3)
1B – Hanley Ramirez (7)
2B – Rougned Odor (2)
3B – Adrian Beltre (4)
SS – Marcus Semien (12)
MI – Jung Ho Kang (17)
CI – Albert Pujols (10)
OF – Andrew McCutchen (5)
OF – Mark Trumbo (9)
OF – Marcell Ozuna (14)
OF – Matt Holliday (16)
Util – Mike Moustakas (18)
P – Clayton Kershaw (1)
P – Chris Archer (6)
P – Rich Hill (11)
P – James Paxton (13)
P – Michael Pineda (19)
P – Jharel Cotton (20)
P – Andrew Miller (8)
P – Shawn Kelley (15)

Overall thoughts

Strengths

  • I love my starting pitching staff. I have five of the top 22 starting pitchers according to our auction calculator.
  • I will have a ton of home runs and RBI.

Weakness

  • I am missing stolen Bases and Run producers. I should have targeted a few top of the order guys in the later rounds.
  • My closers are talented but not guaranteed Saves. I will likely be hunting for Saves throughout the season.

Thoughts on individual picks

  • Kershaw at #3 overall was easy. Using auction values, the projected difference between Kershaw and Scherzer in this format is $27. The difference between Trout and Betts is $7. Kershaw has easily the best chance of being the top rated player at the end of the season. I still value hitters over pitchers and can usually find some gems later. But Kershaw is a difference maker.  If given the opportunity, I will take Trout #1, but Kershaw is next off the board for me.
  • I like getting Posey in the 3rd round. After looking over the numbers several times, I don’t see position scarcity (long article coming later on this subject) except with catcher.
  • Rich Hill’s an injury risk, but in a shallow league like this one, he can be replaced easily.
  • The picks of Jung Ho Kang (law) and Mark Trumbo (no team) look to be shaky at this point in the offseason. I think they have acceptable talent but I worry about their playing time.
  • From about the 14th round and on, I had problems finding hitters I really coveted. Either the player is boring with no upside like Carlos Beltran or a completely risky pick like Max Kepler or Hunter Renfroe. I am going to work my way through these hitters later to see if I can find some gems. Additionally, I should find the power, speed, and average contributors at the various positions and use these late picks to balance my team’s needs.
  • Pineda in the 19th is a steal. He might have a high ERA again or he could put it together and be a top 10 pitcher. I will take the chance on him this late.

The Fantasy Baseball Guide

For this publication, I wrote about winning Tout Wars and some individual pitcher profiles. Additionally, I contributed to the Rookie of the Year rankings with several other writers. I won’t provide the composite rankings seen in the magazine but here the 21 I ranked.

1. Andrew Benintendi
2. Yoan Moncada
3. Manuel Margot
4. Dansby Swanson
5. Alex Reyes
6. J.P. Crawford
7. Tyler Glasnow
8. Austin Meadows
9. Jose De Leon
10. Lucas Giolito
11. Yulieski Gurriel
12. Josh Bell
13. Franklin Barreto
14. Robert Gsellman
15. Luke Weaver
16. Reynaldo Lopez
17. Cody Reed
18. Josh Hader
19. Matt Strahm
20. Ozzie Albies
21. Cody Bellinger

Thoughts

  • These rankings are based on 2017 production and playing time. I used the list to help pick in BaseballHQ’s rookie draft at First Pitch Arizona.
  • I will always choose hitters over pitchers. I find pitchers get injured too much and their talent level changes quickly.
  • Margot has the chance to be a cheap source of 30+ stolen bases. I am a fan.
  • One player I think will be a star is Cody Bellinger. I would put him higher but Adrian Gonzalez is blocking him from regular playing time.
  • I am the low man on Giolito. I was all-in going into last season and owned him in two industry leagues. I watched his debut and other starts and saw nothing impressive. Most people point out his bad stats but they can be deceiving. Not this time. His stats matched how he was throwing … not well. MLB.com just released their prospect grades for him and here is how it compares to his previous grades.
Lucas Giolito’s Prospect Grades
Year Report Publication Fastball Curveball Changeup/splitter Control/Command
2013 MLB 70 70 50 60
2014 MLB 80 65 55 55
2014 BA 80 70 60 55
2015 MLB 80 70 55 60
2015 BA 80 70 60 60
2016 MLB 80 70 55 55
2016 BA 80 70 55 60
2017 MLB 65 65 55 50

 

His fastball no longer grades out as an 80 and his curveball and control grades are also down. Using the 2017 grade from MLB.com, here are some of his historic comps.

Prospects With Grades Similar to Lucas Giolito’s Grades
Name Year Report Publication Fastball Curveball Changeup/splitter Control/Command
Lucas Giolito 2017 MLB 65 65 55 50
Jeff Hoffman 2015 MLB 65 65 55 55
Jeff Hoffman 2016 MLB 65 65 55 55
Jeff Hoffman 2014 MLB 65 65 55 55
Lucas Sims 2015 MLB 65 60 55 50
Jameson Taillon 2015 MLB 65 60 55 50
Jameson Taillon 2016 MLB 65 60 55 50
Sean Newcomb 2016 BA 65 60 55 50
Mike Montgomery 2012 BA 65 65 60 50
Touki Toussaint 2015 MLB 65 65 55 45
Drew Pomeranz 2012 BA 60 65 55 55
Sean Newcomb 2015 BA 60 60 55 50
Grant Holmes 2015 BA 60 60 55 50
Justus Sheffield 2016 BA 60 60 55 50
Rob Kaminsky 2014 MLB 60 60 55 50
Hunter Harvey 2016 MLB 60 65 50 50
Max Fried 2014 MLB 60 65 50 50
Jameson Taillon 2014 MLB 65 60 55 55
Lucas Sims 2014 MLB 65 60 55 55
Carl Edwards Jr. 2015 MLB 65 60 50 50
Grant Holmes 2016 MLB 65 60 50 50
Archie Bradley 2014 MLB 70 65 50 50
Aaron Sanchez 2015 MLB 70 65 55 45
Touki Toussaint 2014 MLB 70 65 55 45

Some good, but nothing great. Giolito’s still a decent prospect but not as highly regarded as he was just a year ago.





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Robertmember
7 years ago

Re: Lindy’s, how do you not discuss Odor at 21st overall? Was there a run on 2B? He’s going nearly two rounds later according to NFBC.

Robertmember
7 years ago
Reply to  Jeff Zimmerman

Wow. Didn’t realize Odor’s projections were that strong. I’ll need to dive into the auction calculator soon.