Comments on: Ben Duronio’s 10 Bold Predictions for 2012

By: Mr. Thell

Mr. Thell — Wed, 13 Jun 2012 19:18:12 +0000

Good call on the sarcasm, Joe and Ryan.

By: Ryan

Ryan — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 17:25:36 +0000

Yeah, good call on Kemp.

By: Joe

Joe — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 19:01:48 +0000

The Matt Kemp prediction on not hitting 30 HR is looking good.

By: Jake

Jake — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 04:23:53 +0000

Gotta dig deeper than just BABIP. With Martin/Avila you’re right Avila’s BABIP is much better than Martin’s but fail to mention how many easy out’s Martin produces — a key factor in their high and low BABIP’s respectively. Big disparity between Avila and Martin’s infield fly ball percentage and GB/FB splits.

By: Ivdown

Ivdown — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 17:19:22 +0000

3. Matt Kemp does not even get a 30/30 season. He said he is shooting for 50/50, but he has only hit 30 home runs one time in his career. A great talent who stays on the field and has improved his approach at the plate, Kemp recorded his highest HR/FB rate and highest FB rate of his career. I think both of those numbers drop, leaving him with less than 30 home runs for the season.

Yeah he’s only hit 30+ home runs once, but if you have haven’t noticed (likely not), his home runs have gone up every year of his career. That would be called a pattern. You may be right about if you were to say he might not steal 30 bases, but if anything could be assured about Kemp, it’s that he will hit for power at the very least of everything he does.

By: Matthew

Matthew — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 23:53:20 +0000

I agree with most of these, particularly 7 and 8.

It’s my opinion that Madison Bumgarner, Matt Moore, and Clayton Kershaw will be the three best pitchers in total value over the next five years. Part of that is their youth, but all three are insanely good and have the potential to get better. Meanwhile, the guys who are arguably better than they are now such as Halladay, Lee, Verlander, will age, regress, and could very well be out of baseball before those five years are up.

And of course for Moore to best David Price and for MadBum to best Cain/Lincecum are no easy tasks. Those guys are all safely in the “Top 10 pitchers under 30 bucket.” But I think MadBum and Moore have more overall talent.

By: Jeff

Jeff — Tue, 06 Mar 2012 22:12:41 +0000

Not sure how pitching in a homer-friendly ballpark will cause Kennedy’s win total to decrease. The ERA will probably get worse, sure. But the visiting team isn’t the only one allowed to hit home runs.

Additionally, Avila had 40 points of ISO on Martin (and Martin’s 2011 was a definite outlier from other seasons past, where he was below .100). The power really isn’t close to similar. Avila’s .267 xAVG is also higher than any AVG Martin has hit since 2008. You were too bold here.

Other than that one disagreement and that one bit of confusion, this is interesting stuff though.

By: Brian

Brian — Sun, 04 Mar 2012 15:00:07 +0000

That IS bold.

By: bstar

bstar — Sun, 04 Mar 2012 10:24:38 +0000

I hope you’re right about somebody on the Braves staff pitching 200 innings, at least one would be nice. They really have been decimated the last two years with SP injuries as September has rolled around. If they can avoid that this year, there’s a chance Fredi Gonzalez cuts back a little on his usage of the big 3 out of the bullpen; that just may allow more than one of the young four of JJ, Hanson, Minor, and Brando Beachy to get to 200 innings.

By: Madoff Withurmoni

Madoff Withurmoni — Sun, 04 Mar 2012 02:54:06 +0000

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