2B ADP: Early Results

Mock Draft Central is currently running mock drafts and I will look at how second basemen are being taken in those drafts. Besides the data Mock Draft Central provides, I have added in the approximate round the player would have been taken in a 12-team draft and the difference between the earliest and latest the player was drafted. First, here is a list of the second basemen with their draft stats:

Player Team ADP App. Round Earliest Latest Difference Draft %
Robinson Cano NYY 10 1 1 17 16 100.0%
Dustin Pedroia BOS 19 2 8 28 20 100.0%
Ian Kinsler TEX 25 2 13 35 22 100.0%
Dan Uggla ATL 55 5 24 98 74 100.0%
Brandon Phillips CIN 63 5 38 90 52 100.0%
Chase Utley PHI 77 6 43 115 72 100.0%
Rickie Weeks MIL 79 7 46 114 68 100.0%
Ben Zobrist TB 83 7 40 109 69 100.0%
Howie Kendrick ANA 104 9 64 130 66 100.0%
Dustin Ackley SEA 135 11 82 193 111 100.0%
Neil Walker PIT 143 12 103 198 95 100.0%
Danny Espinosa WAS 149 12 95 212 117 100.0%
Jemile Weeks OAK 154 13 98 217 119 100.0%
Jason Kipnis CLE 163 14 94 ND 99.8%
Aaron Hill ARI 232 19 169 ND 90.3%
Kelly Johnson TOR 237 20 166 ND 77.3%
Gordon Beckham CHW 237 20 207 ND 32.0%
Brian Roberts BAL 242 20 215 ND 59.5%
Jose Altuve HOU 243 20 235 ND 8.4%
Omar Infante MIA 257 21 249 ND 18.4%
Alexi Casilla MIN 264 22 255 ND 5.0%
Maicer Izturis ANA 301 25 291 ND 0.4%
Johnny Giavotella KC 317 26 307 ND 3.7%
Tyler Greene STL 447 37 432 ND 1.1%
Joe Inglett HOU 462 39 447 ND 0.4%

Notes

– Pedroia and Kinsler generally should be available for an owner that picks early in the first round when the draft snakes back to them. This pick is a great chance to fill a MI position. I think these 2 and Cano are close in talent, but there is a decent drop off to the next 2B. If an owner doesn’t get one of these 3, wait a few rounds to begin looking at 2B again.

– I am not a fan of Uggla being taken ahead of Phillips. I hate to go with a one dimensional player like Uggle (HRs, no AVG or SB) this early in the draft. Uggla has one of the highest differences between his earliest and last draft positions. Buyers are definitely torn over his value.

– I have no idea how Utley is going this high, especially with Weeks, Zobrist and Kendrick still being on the board. He has had multiple injuries over multiple seasons dragging down his production. Draft the younger players.

– The players I would try to target for 2B is the remainder of who is left from Weeks, Zobrist and Kendrick. See which one(s) drops the most and then pick them up around round 10. These 3 are being picked at the end of a tier of 2B talent. I will group all these 2B together and aim to draft one when only one or two are still available.

– Kipnis and Ackley are just too far apart IMO. A case can be made that Kipnis will have the better season. Here are the pair’s projected stats for 2012 (average of Bill James, Fans and RotoChamp):

Kipnis: 18 HRs, 17 SBs, 0.272 AVG
Ackley: 12 HRs, 14 SBs, 0.271 AVG

Kipnis is being taken 30 spots later on average in the draft. I think in this situation, Kipnis is getting a little short changed and Ackley’s stock is a bit bloated.

– Two final 2B that peak my interest are Aaron Hill and Kelly Johnson. Both have the potential to be top 10 or even top 5 2B at the end of the season. If a team is drafting and needs to a fill MI spot, these two look like great pickups around the 20th round.




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Jeff writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times and Royals Review, as well as his own website, Baseball Heat Maps with his brother Darrell. In tandem with Bill Petti, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.


27 Responses to “2B ADP: Early Results”

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  1. Eminor3rd says:

    Super useful post. Thanks

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  2. Frank says:

    Good post, I know in my leagues, mi players will be picked up earlier, not sure Kendrick for example will end up going in the 10th round when it comes to the real thing

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    • jimbo says:

      I studies years of my league draft history and found that players coming off a good year tended to drastically exceed adp, bad years went the opposite way. I’ve learned where to look for that sweet spot of solid rebound targets.

      A guy like like Zobrist (non-elite, non-hyped, still in his prime) could be a value this year if people overlook him for a minute. That ‘earliest’ pick of 40 seems agressive, but perhaps that’s closer to his true value.

      Agree on Kendrick. I think I drafted him around there last year…no way he goes as late. Heck, in my league he might actually go before Zorilla.

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  3. Menthol says:

    *Pique* your interest. Pique.
    – Dept. of Anal Retention

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  4. Oregon Nut Cups says:

    In my deep keeper league where we play 2 at each IF position, I’m targeting Jose Altuve late with the hopes Kelly Johnson or Aaron Hill are around mid draft. I’d be willing to gamble on Giavotella as well depending on where he goes.

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  5. Cody says:

    I must just be a blind homer when it comes to Zobrist, but I cannot believe how late he is going compared to other 2B. For me it is easily, Cano, Pedroia, Kinsler, and then Zobrist without a question.

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  6. mike says:

    are there already articles of other positions like this?

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  7. MustBunique says:

    For all lists like these any time you want them, sortable by position, just go to mockdraftcentral and check their ADP report.

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  8. Kris says:

    so darwin barney is in the “don’t bother” category?

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  9. omar207 says:

    RYAN ROBERTS ANYONE? There is NO DOUBT in my mind Zobrist is #4 2B & Ryan Roberts at the worst is Top 15. I realize he has no track record other than 2011, and had a slight fall off after the Break, but the names that are going at the bottom of this list? Please! Gordon Beckham? Got worse every year of his overrated career. Brian Roberts? Can’t get a doctor’s note to even ATTEND a MLB game, never mind play in one! Jose Altuve? Are you kidding me, have you looked at the numbers? 1,255 out of 1,633 PA’s were at or below A+ ball!? I realize he has upside, but why are people crazy over a .081 ISO on a .309 BABIP… not to mention the 2.9 BB%!? And he PROJECTS a whopping 10 HR’s & 19 SB’s in over 550 PA’s (Bill James)? I just wish I were drafting with these guys…

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    • just jim says:

      I was just going to ask about Ryan Roberts as well, and if Mr. Zimmerman is reading this, I would ask if he could either update this list to include him or address Ryan Roberts in a reply below.

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      • Rich Funk says:

        Michael Young too please. I’d say he’s a top 5 2B this season. No excuses for leaving him off the list.

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      • juan pierres mustache says:

        i imagine both of these are due to position eligibility rules–i believe neither young nor roberts is counted as a 2B in MDC’s format.

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      • just jim says:

        Roberts played 28 games at second, I think he’s qualified unless they require more.

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  10. jf5154 says:

    Extremely useful article. I hope there is going to be one for every position. Thank u!

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  11. dscottncc says:

    I guess I just view Ackley as a potential 300 hitter. I’m not expecting huge numbers from HR or SB’s but his hitting could make him a .300 hitter with 60-70 runs and 60-70 rbi’s. Kipnis won’t ever hit above .270 and I think those projections are very optimistic for him. Those numbers are mostly based off his 100 or so at bats from last year, when the guy was right around .280 for his average with decent pop and little speed in the minors.

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  12. cable fixer says:

    too late to pile on praise for these sorts of articles? nice job!

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  13. Blue Bomb says:

    Ryan Raburn and Marco Scutaro OR
    Sean Rodriguez and Ben Revere

    I currently have the latter and that’s my trade offer. Johnny Giavotella was not taken so i’m thinking i’ll pick him off of waivers once they open to be my starting 2B, then have Sean-Rod as a bench player and i’ll find a spot for him whenever he faces lefties.

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