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2B ADP: Early Results

Posted By Jeff Zimmerman On January 25, 2012 @ 4:15 pm In Second Base | 27 Comments

Mock Draft Central is currently running mock drafts and I will look at how second basemen are being taken in those drafts. Besides the data Mock Draft Central provides, I have added in the approximate round the player would have been taken in a 12-team draft and the difference between the earliest and latest the player was drafted. First, here is a list of the second basemen with their draft stats:

Player Team ADP App. Round Earliest Latest Difference Draft %
Robinson Cano NYY 10 1 1 17 16 100.0%
Dustin Pedroia BOS 19 2 8 28 20 100.0%
Ian Kinsler TEX 25 2 13 35 22 100.0%
Dan Uggla ATL 55 5 24 98 74 100.0%
Brandon Phillips CIN 63 5 38 90 52 100.0%
Chase Utley PHI 77 6 43 115 72 100.0%
Rickie Weeks MIL 79 7 46 114 68 100.0%
Ben Zobrist TB 83 7 40 109 69 100.0%
Howie Kendrick ANA 104 9 64 130 66 100.0%
Dustin Ackley SEA 135 11 82 193 111 100.0%
Neil Walker PIT 143 12 103 198 95 100.0%
Danny Espinosa WAS 149 12 95 212 117 100.0%
Jemile Weeks OAK 154 13 98 217 119 100.0%
Jason Kipnis CLE 163 14 94 ND - 99.8%
Aaron Hill ARI 232 19 169 ND - 90.3%
Kelly Johnson TOR 237 20 166 ND - 77.3%
Gordon Beckham CHW 237 20 207 ND - 32.0%
Brian Roberts BAL 242 20 215 ND - 59.5%
Jose Altuve HOU 243 20 235 ND - 8.4%
Omar Infante MIA 257 21 249 ND - 18.4%
Alexi Casilla MIN 264 22 255 ND - 5.0%
Maicer Izturis ANA 301 25 291 ND - 0.4%
Johnny Giavotella KC 317 26 307 ND - 3.7%
Tyler Greene STL 447 37 432 ND - 1.1%
Joe Inglett HOU 462 39 447 ND - 0.4%

Notes

- Pedroia and Kinsler generally should be available for an owner that picks early in the first round when the draft snakes back to them. This pick is a great chance to fill a MI position. I think these 2 and Cano are close in talent, but there is a decent drop off to the next 2B. If an owner doesn’t get one of these 3, wait a few rounds to begin looking at 2B again.

- I am not a fan of Uggla being taken ahead of Phillips. I hate to go with a one dimensional player like Uggle (HRs, no AVG or SB) this early in the draft. Uggla has one of the highest differences between his earliest and last draft positions. Buyers are definitely torn over his value.

- I have no idea how Utley is going this high, especially with Weeks, Zobrist and Kendrick still being on the board. He has had multiple injuries over multiple seasons dragging down his production. Draft the younger players.

- The players I would try to target for 2B is the remainder of who is left from Weeks, Zobrist and Kendrick. See which one(s) drops the most and then pick them up around round 10. These 3 are being picked at the end of a tier of 2B talent. I will group all these 2B together and aim to draft one when only one or two are still available.

- Kipnis and Ackley are just too far apart IMO. A case can be made that Kipnis will have the better season. Here are the pair’s projected stats for 2012 (average of Bill James, Fans and RotoChamp):

Kipnis: 18 HRs, 17 SBs, 0.272 AVG
Ackley: 12 HRs, 14 SBs, 0.271 AVG

Kipnis is being taken 30 spots later on average in the draft. I think in this situation, Kipnis is getting a little short changed and Ackley’s stock is a bit bloated.

- Two final 2B that peak my interest are Aaron Hill and Kelly Johnson. Both have the potential to be top 10 or even top 5 2B at the end of the season. If a team is drafting and needs to a fill MI spot, these two look like great pickups around the 20th round.


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