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2B: Early Draft Results

Posted By Jeff Zimmerman On January 14, 2013 @ 4:05 pm In Rankings,Second Base | 33 Comments

After 15 rounds in Rotographs’s 12-team ridiculously early draft, 13 second basemen have been drafted. A few surprises have popped up, but again in 2013, the 2B position has it talent spread out pretty evenly.

Note: Aaron Hill was not included when the article first ran. He has been now included.

To begin with, here are the Oliver Projections for the 2B qualified players who have been drafted from rounds 1 to 15:

Draft Position Name PA AB R HR RBI SB CS AVG OBP SLG
7 Robinson Cano 686 623 104 30 97 5 3 .303 .362 .525
30 Dustin Pedroia 609 538 90 16 64 17 6 .287 .358 .448
36 Ian Kinsler 662 582 110 22 64 20 6 .258 .341 .441
49 Ben Zobrist 658 560 82 17 86 17 6 .261 .357 .435
56 Jason Kipnis 536 480 69 13 58 15 4 .254 .324 .395
68 Brandon Phillips 653 598 92 18 74 15 7 .279 .328 .429
69 Jose Altuve 467 434 55 10 46 19 19 .278 .322 .407
81 Aaron Hill 547 498 73 19 64 10 4 .265 .323 .448
86 Danny Espinosa 632 567 75 20 62 17 9 .242 .312 .413
94 Rickie Weeks 598 522 84 22 59 10 3 .250 .342 .436
135 Neil Walker 588 529 65 13 79 8 5 .266 .328 .415
145 Dan Uggla 655 566 88 26 85 3 3 .238 .336 .423
165 Marco Scutaro 541 485 76 6 53 7 3 .264 .313 .353
167 Howie Kendrick 598 553 65 12 73 12 5 .275 .318 .410

Also, here are the players with their projected stats prorated to 600 PA each. I feel last year’s rookies are being overly penalized, so I evened out the playing time.

Rank Name PA R HR RBI SB AVG
7 Robinson Cano 600 91 26 85 4 0.303
30 Dustin Pedroia 600 88 15 63 16 0.287
36 Ian Kinsler 600 100 20 58 18 0.258
49 Ben Zobrist 600 75 16 78 15 0.261
56 Jason Kipnis 600 78 14 65 17 0.254
68 Brandon Phillips 600 84 16 68 14 0.279
69 Jose Altuve 600 70 12 59 25 0.278
70 Aaron Hill 600 80 21 70 11 0.265
86 Danny Espinosa 600 71 19 58 17 0.242
94 Rickie Weeks 600 85 22 59 10 0.250
135 Neil Walker 600 67 14 81 8 0.266
145 Dan Uggla 600 81 24 78 3 0.238
165 Marco Scutaro 600 84 7 59 7 0.264
167 Howie Kendrick 600 65 12 73 12 0.275

No real surprise with Cano going in the first round. I was a little surprised it took until the end of the 3rd round for the pair of Kinsler and Pedroia to get picked. The next three taken were Zobrist, Kipnis and Phillips. Personally, I have Phillips ranked higher than Kipnis. After that point, the 2B just slowly got drafted, about 1 every round.

After looking at our draft, it looks like there are 4 tiers of 2B so far:

Tier 1
Robinson Cano

Tier 2
Dustin Pedroia
Ian Kinsler

Tier 3
Ben Zobrist
Brandon Phillips

Tier 4 – everyone else.
Jason Kipnis
Jose Altuve
Aaron Hill
Danny Espinosa
Rickie Weeks
Neil Walker
Dan Uggla
Marco Scutaro
Howie Kendrick

Looking at the 600 PA weighted projection, the first player drafted in Tier 4 was Jason Kipnis (pick #56) and Howie Kendrick (pick #167) was the last. Their projections have them producing almost the same stats.

Stat: Kipnis, Kendrick
Runs+RBI: 143, 138
HR: 14, 12
SB: 17, 12
AVG: .254, .275

Yes, Kipnis looks to be better, but not by much. He is definitely not 110 picks better. After the first five 2B go, all the rest of the players have multiple warts. Just draft the player to help your team at the time. Need power, get Uggla. Need steals, draft Altuve. Don’t care, wait to get the last one available.

One issue with looking at just these 13 is Zobrist and Espinosa have SS eligibility and they are likey to be drafted as shortstops. Even more decent, but not great 2B are available like Daniel Murphy and Chase Utley.

In 2013, 2B looks to be nice and deep, especially in 12 team leagues. If a team doesn’t get one of the top five 2B, don’t fret and worry about them for while. Fill out the other positions of need and get one of the relatively equal second basemen 8 to 10 rounds later.


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