3 Guys I Won’t Draft in 2012
OK, so the language in the title might be a bit inflammatory. I can’t, with 100% certainty, say that I absolutely, positively won’t draft these guys, but based on the current chatter and their ADP rankings, they will not be targets for me. Now, if they somehow slipped a few rounds and it looks like they could, potentially, be a bargain, then I might think otherwise, but that’s a pretty big “if” for me right now. Here’s who I’m avoiding…
Melky Cabrera, OF SF – He’s having himself a helluva spring right now, isn’t he? All the more reason to stay out of the bidding here. Cabrera totally overachieved last season, batting .305 with 18 home runs and 20 steals and now takes his game to the Bay Area where it’s going to be very tough for the Melk-man to deliver. The .332 BABIP was a career best and looks completely unsustainable based on his totals from previous seasons. Once it lands back on Earth, he’ll probably return to that .260-.270 range that he usually flirts with. His power totals were also career bests and given the way AT&T Park and its cold, damp air stifles hitters, those too will be tough to duplicate. With an ADP of 175.23, Melky is going somewhere around the 14th or 15th round and while that might not be too high for some people, based on the expected regression, I’d much rather grab a closer or a starter with promise first and wait a few rounds for a Josh Willingham or even an upside-laden Yoenis Cespedes. Both of those choices sound better than using a pick that high on 24th round production.
Chone Figgins, 3B SEA – Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times and I’m just a moron who can’t grasp the fact that you’re done. The rapidly declining OBP, the disappearing walk rate, diminishing steals, these are just some of the things wrong with Figgy right now. It would be difficult for him to get any worse than he was in 2011, but a massive improvement this season is a huge longshot. Maybe a few ticks better across the board, but not enough that you should be buying into the hype of him batting leadoff for the M’s this year. Stolen bases have been in abundance the last couple of years, so if you’re looking for speed, dig somewhere else. His ADP is 282.88 right now and if I’m looking for infield help at that point, I’d much rather take a shot at a developing Johnny Giavotella or a Brent Morel.
Johan Santana, SP NYM – Please tell me this is a product of New York media hype and not some crazy belief that Santana is really going to come back and produce at some high level this year. A 227.90 ADP (19th round) is still too high for a guy who, not only didn’t throw a single pitch in the majors in 2011, but remains an injury risk and has seen a steady decline in his strikeout rate and walk rate during his last three seasons. Not to mention the lost velocity over the last four years. On a human level I think it’s great that he’s getting back on that horse and trying to pitch again, but I’m certainly not entrusting the ratios of my fantasy team with him. Based on his increasing xFIP over the last four years, I’m looking at Steamer’s projections being the most likely. There are plenty of other hurlers that will be available after he’s been taken, so save yourself and enjoy them instead.
Dishonorable Mention: Josh Johnson, SP MIA — How do you even remotely trust that injury risk, especially in the 8th or 9th round? I don’t!
Did this deserve an article? This might be worth writing if it was 2009.
Based on what some people are writing/saying, yes, I believe it did.
i enjoyed it.
Well done Howard. I think there needs to be a lot more emphasize on the later rounds. I wish every single site would stop writing about the first round, it’s the freaking FIRST ROUND! We all know what to do, it’s the safest and easiest pick to make in the entire draft.
really went out on a limb with those picks.
Wasn’t really an attempt to go out on a limb. Just saying that if it comes down to one of these guys and someone else, then go with the someone else. Obviously some people aren’t as enlightened as you, based on what the ADP rankings say…
Since I grabbed Melky last spring based on his spring (and yes, I usually ignore spring but, hitbsohl stories and the fact his spring was lightyears ahead of anything he’d done, he was still young, etc.). So I’ll bet Melky regresses some, but manages to keep close. Maybe his walk rate will go back up, one area he has slipped in. I’ll go .280/.320/.435. Unfortunately he’s now in lf. That line is acceptable in cf as long as it’s fantasy, he plays every day and fielding doesn’t count.
i love when people say shit like this. they’re the same people who go nuts if someone has even a slightly controversial opinion. “omg you’re so dumb. how stupid do you have to be to have an opinion like that?????”
-Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times and I’m just a moron who can’t grasp the fact that you’re done.-
Thanks for the good laugh.
Really? You can’t say with 100% certainty that you won’t draft Chone Figgins?
Pray tell in what scenario would you take him. And don’t say 20 team league please…
Are you serious? He’ll be drafted in most 12-team leagues at least as a CI… 15-team leagues for sure. See my response below.
what Dave said….
Why is it off-limits to talk about players in 20 team contexts? This might blow your mind, but I play those leagues all the time and I’d guess a substantial minority of Fangraphs readers do, too.
Agreed, I certainly play in a 20 team league. I hope I don’t end up having Figgins on my roster, but you just never know.
Worst column ever seen on fangraphs
Ever? All time? Well, I certainly wasn’t trying to make history here, but thanks for the vote, Guy.
No, the current reliever rankings were way worse… you have been saved.
Even over the classic #6org? Bold choice.
Drafting Josh Johnson in the 8th/9th round isn’t anywhere near as crazy as your obsession with Adam Jones, to be fair.
If Adam Jones breaks out even more this year than he did in 2011, I expect a number of apologies in my “I told you so” follow-up piece.
I like Jones but am not expecting a “breakout” year. Maybe another step forward from last year. He’ll have to stop pounding the ball into the ground if he ever wants to hit for more than 25HR power. He looks like Hunter Pence did a few years ago. Nothing wrong with that.
As for the article I didn’t find a heck of a lot of info that I couldn’t get from a quick glance at ADP’s and the aforementioned players’ pages here. You’re avoiding Santana in the 19th round? Who else has that kind of upside and track record in the 19th. I just got him in the 22nd round in my draft and was more than happy to stash him. If he bombs or gets injured I’ll just send him back to the WW. Rounds 18-25 don’t mean much anyhow. If I see a player with an ADP over 18 I pretty much assume I’ll be able to get him anywhere from 18-25 depending on how people are feeling that day.
Anyone else get the feeling Gio Gonzales should be on this list?
His walk rate is alarming for sure, but going to the NL should mitigate it much more this season… he’s an elite strikeout pitcher who could easily have a sub-3 ERA… though the potential for him to blow-up due to that high walk rate also makes him risky. Here’s what I have on him – http://www.therotosaurus.com/player-profiles-and-projections/gio-gonzalez/
Yeah, for real…..
Where is Gio, Buerhle, Bard, Feliz? Guys that ACTUALLY should not be touched in drafts, rather than these almost meaningless players he chose here.
@Dylan
Yeah, mentioning guys like that would’ve been more informative.
I’m not playing against geniuses and I highly doubt any of these 3 guys mentioned will be selected on draft day.
Johnson in the 8th/9th round isn’t the worst pick ever. Sure it’s unlikely (not impossible) that he’ll pitch a full season – if he does, it’s another good shot that you’ve got the best pitcher in baseball.
Average all of the projections on FanGraphs together and you get about 150 innings for Johnson – just about the same as Stephen Strasburg, who I’ve seen go much earlier than 8th/9th rounds.
I have Josh’s value as very similar to Strasburg (as Strasburg has a 150-160 IP limit) http://www.therotosaurus.com/2012-player-rankings/starting-pitcher-rankings/
Both are overdrafted due to talent/hype but not worth it, especially in leagues deeper than 12-team where the replacement value falls off a cliff
I don’t have Johnson overvalued in the 8th or 9th.
A gamble with the possibility as previously mentioned of being a top 3 pitcher is worth it. I also have a sneaking suspicion that Johnson’s injury last year wasn’t as bad as it was made out to be. If they seriously wanted to save him for this year, they would have handled it exactly how they did.
I’m gambling on Johan as well. I love that people thin there are better gambles in the last round than Johan Santana.
Wait, so if that “cold bay air” will stifle Melky, why won’t it stifle Cespedes? And did it stifle Willingham?
Honestly, I’m just pointing out a little contradiction. I agree, Melky is overvalued this year, and the Royals were right on selling high.
Much warmer in Oakland and the stadium is not sitting on the water.
This is just pathetically misinformed.
Take a look at a map – the SF ballpark is on the water. Heavy air comes off the water to keep balls down.
Oakland’s park is East of SF. The air is warmer and you do not have the same heavy air. There, the ballpark dimensions keep the HR rate low.
It is much warmer in Oakland than in San Francisco.
It’s warmer in Alaska than Antarctica too, that doesn’t mean it’s “warm”.
I agree on Josh Johnson for sure… seems like so many people don’t understand the fact that regardless of how good he is, he CANNOT stay healthy. Here’s where I have him (#28) http://www.therotosaurus.com/2012-player-rankings/starting-pitcher-rankings/
As for Figgins, for where he’s going in NFBC satellite drafts (which is the best indicator of correct ADP) – http://www.therotosaurus.com/drafts/average-draft-position/ which is #444, I’d easily take him. He’s back hitting lead-off and starting at 3B for the M’s this season, which is where he’s comfortable. I’m not expecting a big season or anything, but I do expect somewhat of a rebound providing SBs, decent AVG, and lots of runs. Now, I’m sure his ADP will go up as people begin to realize he’s the starter and is leading-off, but 3B is a very weak position, I would never rule out drafting him completely. Right now he’s a sleeper actually
Figgins upside this season is “shows he can still be sorta useful and gets traded in a partial salary dump to be a utility man for a team in need.”
I guess I don’t disagree that 288 is far too high.
He’s going 444th! That will definitely change as the season approaches though because he’s a starter at 3B and isn’t completely worthless.
I’m going to be the lone dissenter on Melky. But at 175, he’s a lot more likely being undervalued than overvalued. He did put up top 50 numbers last year. Look the park change sucks, and the odds say he will regress a lot of times, but they also say he won’t a reasonable amount of time too. 175 doesn’t seem like a bad gamble on the latter.
But another thing on Melky is imagine if he’d come up to MLB so young and instead came up last year as a 25yo and put up the same season he did. How would we view a 26yo OF with his numbers from last year then, just as he is going into his prime?
Now I know the past in MLB still matters, but the reality is Melky was brought up because he was good defender. Not because of his bat. If he didn’t have the glove, we might not have seen all those poor batting numbers in MLB and instead he would have had a normal milb progression. Maybe our perception of Melky is more due to the fact that his bat development just needed a lot more time than his glove……..? We should we view him differently than other 26yo guys….
I’ll join you Hans. I think Melky is decent value in round 15. Strong track record of being healthy, 12% K%, strong LD% + GB% and he is big enough to hit 12 to 15 HR. If he steals 10 to 15 bases to go with 13 HR, a .280+ AVG and 150 runs + RBI then that is a perfectly reasonable 15th round pick.
I disagree with the Johan Santana knock. In the 19th round I usually already have my full line up as well as my top 4 SPs. At that point, I’m happy to take a risk on a high upside guy like Santana. Even if I end up cutting him soon after the season starts, it’s still a low risk move with some solid potential reward.
As for Josh Johnson, yeah you can’t expect him to stay healthy an entire season, but if you get him in the 9th round and he throws 150 innings, that seems well worth it to me since when he’s on the mound he regularly puts up ace quality numbers. Play some match-ups to make up the innings you lose to injury and that isn’t half bad for a 9th round pick.
Yeah, I agree with this. I snagged Johann in the 21st round of a draft last night. I mean, what could really go wrong with picking him that low?
Wrong Santana to claim upside… Johan has a rather low ceiling I’d think, with his diminishing peripherals and age. The risk is for mediocre “Johan” which at this point in his career would be great. Like Bender indicates, at this round what you are missing are the actual high upside youngins that’ll give you more reward for that risk.
I disagree. A plus-plus changeup from the left side will still play even if he has lost some zip on his fastball. Add in his excellent control and he certainly wont be hurting your WHIP. The wild card is how the field will play with the fences being moved in.
I like him in the 19th much better than the Ervin Santana roller coaster far ealier in the draft.
They were all kind of no-brainer picks though.
A better three would have been Matt Moore, Doug Fister and Jose Reyes – just from an overhyped/overvalued standpoint.
I agree with Matt Moore
No chance. Matt Moore, believe it or not, is UNDERvalued. He’s every but worth the hype and more… he should lead the league in Ks as a rookie.. I have him as the #8 SP and that’s being conservative I feel – http://www.therotosaurus.com/2012-player-rankings/starting-pitcher-rankings/
Fister is a very solid starter, just don’t expect a sub-3 ERA or that strikeout rate that he showed with Detroit… for people overvaluing Wins he’ll be overvalued but most knowledgeable fantasy owners know better.
Dave – We’ll have to wait and see on Moore. He very well may be undervalued in these March 2012 drafts.
As for Fister, I expect his ERA and WHIP to hurt your roto ratios with that awful defense behind him and his groundball rate higher than the MLB avg.
YOu have a rookie as the #8 SP and you think that’s being conservative? I better go look at your list and make sure I don’t draft by it.
I love the qualification, well (hem haw), I might not draft them or I might. This should have been the headline, 3 players I will only draft if they are available, after I have drafted everyone I wanted previous. Very helpful.
I can say with 100% certainty that I won’t be drafting Mickey Morandini this season.
People who keep insisting that Melky is going to regress are missing the human element of evaluation here. Melky has had issues with poor conditioning and possibly with alcohol in the past. He got himself into shape for last season and he took a step forward. From everything I’ve read this year, he’s doubled down on the conditioning and has become somewhat of a workout fiend. He also has a no-nonsense attitude and is totally focused on both preparation and the game.
There are reasons why last year was just the tip of the iceberg. He’s always had the tools. He still has some post-hype sleeperishness about him. The conditioning was not just a one year deal with him. He’s just entering what should be the prime years of his career.
If anything, he may be undervalued because literally everybody is predicting a regression.
agreed
You’ve convinced me. I’m buying the Melky semi non-reression thingie.
Melky’s BABIP was 33 points above his current career level despite an almost identical batted ball profile.
Melky stole 20 bases at 67% success rate on a team that wanted to get Billy Butler to steal. It’s not as if he was a particularly efficient base stealer.
Melky had 700 PAs to rack up some impressive counting stats.
Melky had a HR/FB rate almost 50% north of his career rate. It was 3% in 2010 so it screams fluke rather than trend to me.
You can look back at a career year and assign any reasoning you’d like but I see a lot of good luck and a year that will almost certainly remain his best by a good amount.
There is also somrthing called Normal Career Trajectory that you are completely ignoring in addition to the conditioning and attitude issues I discussed above.
Nothing about Melky’s make-up or speed suggests that a .330 BABIP is UN-sustainable. That is a completely unfounded assumption made above.
None of these guys are really going a lot higher than they deserve. It isn’t like people are buying into these guys and drafting them aggressively. When you are saying something like I’d rather draft Josh Willingham you know the player can’t be that far overrated.
I’d go with names that people do actually reach on like I won’t be drafting Alex Gordon in any league.
This was kinda what I was thinking. I don’t think Melky is really rated that high, and I highly doubt the masses buy into him being a top-flight OF. I even doubt most people know that he had such a great year. Obviously everyone here does, but that’s beside the point.
I do know there is no chance I draft Carlos Lee. Screw him.
I dunno, Carlos Lee was left in the 16th round of a 16 team league, at that point he might be a bargain!
Yes, those odd-looking positive defensive numbers Lee put up last year inflated his actual value WAR-wise. He was still the same guy offensively, putting up a 114 wRC+. I don’t see him topping that, and I certainly don’t think his defense will get the sam positive numbers it did last yr. I’m staying away.
Edit: same not sam
I’d like to add Hunter Pence to this list, as he doesn’t have much of a walk rate and continues to be overvalued by fantasy drafters and major league ball clubs because he is a “gamer.” Plenty of outfield depth to go around rather than be in a bidding war for a big name on a popular team.
Pence is expensive as a third or fourth round pick (it’s so hard to take him over Lincecum, Sabathia or Haren), but .285-25-12 with great health and plus counting stats are now third or fourth round offensive stats in this era of the pitcher. I know Adam Jones is projected for a similar line, but Pence does it every year.
you think pence is gonna go double digit steals over a full season in philly? i doubt it…
How about Justin Verlander, Hunter Pence, and Joe Mauer? They are generally accepted as top 100 picks, but I will roster none of them this season.
Verlander is top 5 starter, he’s a great pitcher, and yet he’s still overvalued by some idiots taking him in the 1st round. NO. Kershaw, Halladay, and Lee are all better… don’t forget Verlander pitches in the AL – he’s not likely to have another sub-3 ERA or 9+ K/9
that’s the kind of article i’d rather see!
Who are three people who have never been in my kitchen.
Actually, I liked the post. Fools gold indeed.
Personally, I’d stay away from Tim Lincecum. ADP 5′th pitcher and 25 overall? That’s crazy! I’m not sure he’s even one of the top 2 pitchers on his own team!
The Nick Adenhart joke made me laugh. It was in very poor taste, though. Kids, just because I laughed doesn’t mean you should- stay in school and eat your carrots. And remember, don’t drink and drive too often or far.
Way to step out on a limb and be bold, dude! Why don’t you add Vernon Wells to this list – his bat may just be starting to slow down.
About a day behind the rest of us, Immaa. Your excellent observation was made and responded to yesterday at the top of the comments. But thanks for helping add to the discussion.
Is snark a requirement of baseball writing these days? You can’t find a site where the writers don’t portray themselves as sarcastic douches.
Oh, was that snark too douchey for you? My bad. Sending you a big hug right now to help you cope.
I don’t understand why people simply assume that Melky’s HR total will go down. He played in KC last year, which is just as bad or worse annually at suppressing homers as Candlestick II (insert corporate sponser) Stadium. I also think he hit the majority of his bombs on the road this year. He’ll have an equal number of games away from SF. Target and Petco cancel each other out as far as his division opponents. I know that KC hasn’t been much worth watching for a long time, and nobody seems to realize this but they’re stadium is one of the hardest to hit homers in the league. In my mind his change from parks and leagues should be a wash, except for the fact he may be facing better pitching.
Didn’t they move the fences in at Kaufman before the start of last season?
No. The fences at Kauffman are where they have been for the last ten years, when they moved them back out to their original location.
I expect his HR totals to go down but he has 13-15 HR power and he has 15-20 SB speed and he is a .280ish hitter. It is a valuable though boring package. Where he is being drafted there is nothing wrong with taking that package.
i can’t say i disagree with any of these calls, but they’re not tough calls to make. an article of this nature would be a lot more valuable if the focus was on the earlier rounds – where i would argue there is the most ground to be made up in terms of knowing who and what to target. for instance:
Elvis Andrus, SS TEX – 35+ bags, 90+ runs, a batting average that won’t hurt; Kid Elvis is certainly an asset, especially hitting from the two spot in Arlington. But is that really the best we can do in the 4th or 5th round? Could we possibly find those numbers from the SS spot later in the draft? Enter Dee Gordon. While the hype train has arrived on Dee – causing his ADP to soar of late – he still offers similar numbers to Elvis (with plus-SB upside!) at a 4-5 round discount. Look, you could do much worse than drafting Mr. Andrus as your SS, but this is all about opportunity. I’d look to draft a big arm (see: Greinke, Haren, Price) at this stage and hold out for Dee-Dee around the 90th pick.
…said Andy Behrens. Like a week ago. It’s totally true and solid advice, I’m just hoping you thought of that yourself and weren’t just passing along Y! advice.
ha!
not surprised at all, actually. it’s probably even a good bet that i read the article. did he specifically suggest waiting for dee, too? can’t argue, i look like an idea-lifting tool either way!
no theft involved or intended though. this isn’t the first season i’ve avoided elvis’ price tag, and i’ve been on dee for a while now (though sad to see how much his Y! rank has risen over the past few weeks). in 2010 elvis was ranked similarly to what dee is now; i drafted him happily in 2010, and loved what he gave me. dee is the 2012 elvis, and i’ll gladly target that again:)
John Willingham over Melky Cabrera?
The quality of these articles have taken a severe nose-dive this year.
he didn’t say he’d draft willingham over melky, but that he’d take an arm (etc.) and grab “John” a few rounds later. people are missing out on that very important point here – you take a different sort of asset entirely and wait for a similarly promising and/or reliable option several picks later. this would probably be better illustrated if earlier picks were being discussed, but the advice certainly isn’t as horrible as people seem to think. if you want melky then draft him, nobody is stopping you.
Really, people? Really? It’s totally cool for you to tell me I’m an idiot or sarcastically mock me for “going out on a limb” here with my picks for an article but the moment I throw you a little sass back and you go off the deep end? Get a grip.
Listen, if you want to disagree with a point in the article or just feel the need to bash the overall piece, fine. Do what you gotta do. It doesn’t bother me. I have thick skin and, frankly, I enjoy it most of the time as I use it constructively for future pieces.
But once you start with the profanity and the racial/gay slurs, you’re crossing over a whole different line. Rag on a piece all you want, but when you act like a moron and cross that line, you’re only going to get your email/IP address blackballed on the site.
Clean it up, children.
Ah, the internet. You know the only reasonable way to convey displeasure or disagreement is through profanity and slurs.
I can’t say I was impressed with the article, especially the inclusion of Figgins. However, I generally like your work. If you keep writing, I’ll keep reading.
Is this the same guy that mocked a pitcher killed by a drunk driver?
Get a life Bender, you loser.
Actually, Bo, I’m not the one who mocked Nick Adenhart nor have I ever brought up his name in anything written that didn’t express my deepest sympathies to his family. If you read the commentator’s name, you would have seen that it is a deviation of mine and not me. Sadly, I cannot show you that as one of the main editors deleted it for its poor taste.
Your other comments were deleted due to your use of profanity.
now move along…
I can’t imagine why this utterly innocuous column is drawing so much attention and vitriol. Do all the baseball trolls come out to play in March?
Fine column, Howard. I always enjoy your stuff.
YES keep these articles coming so MC’s ADP stays down.
I’m buying Melky where he is. I agree he’ll regress slightly because of the park change, but at the draft position he’s in, to me it’s either fair value (if he regresses) or great value if he comes anywhere near his 2011 numbers. He was an all-around force last year, with legit reasons for the breakout and everyone is completely down on him.
I’m on the other side of things and will be laughing when I get top 10 OF production out of a 17-20th OF pick.
You guys should really also say what kind of league you’re talking about. H2H points he’s a stud because no one cares about AVG. It’s all about production. 5×5 sure his pending drop in BA is going to hurt.
“upside laiden Cespedes”? Let’s see, is he already at his peak? Yes. Has he never faced elite competition? Yes. Is his performance in question (age, roids)? Yes. Does he play in a pitcher’s park? Yes.
Where is the upside?
The upside is that we haven’t seen him in the major leagues. There are a plethora of question marks, I agree. However, an unknown commodity who has produced elsewhere at least leaves me intrigued to the point where I’d grab him before Melky.
1/3, not bad.
Wow, not looking so good on the Melky prediction.
This is the problem with sabers, all stats, no circumstances. While all the points noted are true about Melky, it left out some key points that suggests that 2011 was not a fluke.
First of all, he was only 26 to start 2011, and it is not out of the question for prospects of that age to break out. But because he didn’t do so hot as a major leaguer when he’s in his early 20′s, in a foreign country where he doesn’t speak the language and thus probably had a hard time adjusting, he’s been denigrated. Wouldn’t you hate being reminded about the mistakes you made when you were in your early 20′s?
Second of all, he actually had a decent up-tick in 2009 boosting his power significantly. So noting his early years don’t really do him justice, when he is showing a boost in power in 2009 and 2011.
Third of all, sabers just look at numbers, and as any good statistician knows, they can lie, depending on the bias. It’s funny to me how people look at what they want to look at to justify their position (and I know I’m prone to that as well).
For Gary Brown, all anyone looked at was what he did in his junior year, where he didn’t walk much. They didn’t bother looking at his freshman year, when he was walking a lot more in order to have a high OBP. It is just when you hit as well as he did in his junior year, it didn’t make sense to work a walk. In Melky’s case, people harp over his early years, yet if you ask any saber how many years back most projection systems go, it is just a few years at most.
Anybody can research and read the articles that Melky improved his conditioning greatly to have his great 2011 season. And it is not like he hasn’t had speed, it has been more that he didn’t utilize it very well in his early years. He was rated above average in speed by the 2006 Minor League Baseball Analyst book. No one has a hard time believing CarGon has a .330-ish BABIP, then he has a .384 BABIP in 2010 and everybody fawns over him, ignoring that even Ichiro couldn’t maintain such a high BABIP and thus his numbers would go way down.
And that’s why I don’t think Melky can continue what he’s doing now, his BABIP will regress, but then it would fall back to around 800 OPS, and that’s still very useful still, in any lineup, but particularly in the Giants since they need it.
“This is the problem with sabers”
Easier to just be a fan, wait a few months, and then explain why obviously the sabers were wrong :)
And then we can wait a couple more months when his .402 BABIP comes crashing down to earth and he’s struggling to keep his BA over .300. And good luck hitting double digit homers when you have a near 2 1/2 GB to FB ratio.
Good call on Johan and Melky
Well, here we are watching Melky win the MVP of the all-star game, and it’s a nice time to reflect on how useless this article was. Melky & Johan both had very strong first halves. The one guy for whom the prediction held true was Chone Figgins, but he was coming off an unbelievably horrible .484 OPS and I don’t really think anyone needed much convincing to lay off of him.
I’m also reflecting on this comment, above, from May 26, predicting that Melky’s BABIP and BA would plummet in a couple months and he’d be struggling to hit .300. Well, it’s been a month and a half, so he’s got his work cut out for him…
Look, when you’re wrong about a prediction, just take the lump and be done with it. Enough with the “well he merely got lucky again, so by my logic I can actually never be wrong.”
You’re either related or the president and only member of his fan club. Do you have a creepy/insane shrine to Melky in your momma’s basement too?
His walk rate is steadily declining, his strike out rate steadily increasing, his iso has nearly evaporated and he’s still hitting twice as many ground balls as fly balls.
Let’s see if you’re still crowing in another 6 weeks Dumas (which I’m sure you pronounce in your head as Dumb Ass)
Yeah, no one really likes Melky, his mom stuffed the ballot box to vote him into the All-Star game (moms, amiright?), they just didn’t have anyone better to give the MVP to, and I’m sure the 93% ownership tag in Y! is just managers begrudgingly keeping him on their bench as they start players unsullied by icky SABR luck.
His BB and K rates are essentially the same for May and June, his ISO is pretty variable throughout his career, but was never considered to be his strongest tool anyway, and he’s making ground balls work for him, in addition to sporting a decent line drive rate.
There are no sure things in this game, he had a monster May that probably won’t be replicated, but he’s been a steady producer certainly worth more than his price tag this year, and there’s no reason to think that will change. Is he gonna finish the year near the top of the game? Wouldn’t surprise me if he didn’t. Is he gonna finish the year paying back a profit to those who drafted him? Very likely so.
When you make a personal attack on someone you literally know nothing about, you just sound like an idiot. Believe it or not, just because your predictions turned out to be worthless to the point of embarrassment does not mean that I live in my mother’s basement.
When predictions come out wrong, a real man admits that he whiffed, and moves on to the next one. You just sound like a big dummy, a dummy with an ego so fragile that he’ll now root against a complete stranger playing baseball in San Francisco so that he might not have to admit he couldn’t flawlessly predict the future on FanGraphs.
So Tim, your comebacks are “wait another month or two”…..eventually he won’t be leading the majors in batting….right?
It was a weak article to begin with. Almost all fantasy owners were wary of Melky entering the year, but then some of us saw his HOT spring and took a chance. None of us needed to pay even close to top dollar to acquire him, so the risk was minimal considering his age and upside.
Johan was a major injury risk…but his bread and butter was his changeup. If his control was good this year, and he stayed healthy(both iffy), he could turn out a real nice season as a mere flyer pick later in drafts. Again, his upside was high enough to warrant the risk of complete worthlessness.
Figgins has been awful for over two years…I think very few owners even considered drafting him. There was no upside with him to go with the high risk of him being horrible. His value lied in his SB’s and 2b eligibility. Both of those things were not really likely to happen in ’12, so there was no reason to take a chance.
The real geniuses drafted him after his incredibly hot spring last year, as well as the fact he was In The Best Shape of His Life!
OK, settle down everybody. Look, I made a call and so far for the first half of the season, Melky has proven me wrong. But let’s just wait until the end of the season and see the finished product before we’re all up in arms here. If I’m still wrong at the end of September, I will admit it. I do an accountability article at the end of each season anyway and am not afraid to admit when I make a bad call. If I was right 100% of the time, we’d all be a lot richer.
haha wait to go howard… went from worst article in some peoples minds to best!