MASH Report (2/28/13)

I was going to put out a little more information from Dr. James Andrew’s book, Any Given Sunday, but instead I found a nice interview with him. He mentions four main points young pitchers should follow:

Here is his response when asked, “What advice would you give pitchers, in general?”

1. Use proper mechanics. The No. 1 problem in any specific sport is improper mechanics.
2. Don’t play year-round.
3. Avoid the radar gun at a young age. Don’t try to overthrow. A lot of kids are 13 years old and checking the radar gun. That’s going to get you in trouble. The radar gun makes you want to throw harder than you are capable of throwing.
4. Be very careful with showcases. I call them “show-off” cases because kids go there Saturday after throwing the football on Friday. They jump on a mound and overthrow because scouts are there. The next thing you know, the shoulder or elbow gets injured.

Recent Injury Data

 • Phil Hughes may start the season on the DL because of a bulging disk in his back.

 • Daniel Murphy is out for 7-10 days for a strained intercostal muscle on his right side. It would be nice to see Murphy come back 100%. Early next week, RotoGraphs will be releasing their position rankings and Murphy was surprisingly high in my rankings (based only of a composite of various projections). As an example, here is his Steamer projection compared to Joe Mauer‘s:

Name: Runs, HRs, RBI, AVG, SB
Murphy: 77, 9, 58, .286, 6
Mauer: 65, 10, 61, .300, 3

Almost identical projections, with Murphy having the edge in Runs and Mauer in AVG.

 • The more information which comes out, the worse Rafael Furcal‘s health looks. Just assume for now he won’t play and will need TJS.

 • Grant Balfour is on schedule to be ready by the season’s start.

 • Frank Francisco looks to be a little ahead of schedule on his return. Opening day seems like a possibility.

 • Chad Billingsley threw for the first time after being shut down last season for a partially torn UCL. If his recovery hits any snags, he will need TJS. I would just stay away from him this season for any thing more than $1 or a late round pick.

 • Pedro Feliciano is out at least 2 weeks as his heart get monitored. He wasn’t much of a fantasy factor with a projected K/9 around 7 and BB/9 around 4.

 • Shaun Marcum was pulled for a hurt weak shoulder. He will not be ready until at least mid-March. Just stay away for now.

 • Wilson Ramos is on track to be ready by the season’s start. Right now he looks like a safe player to roster.

 • No need to take a flier on Javier Vazquez. His 2013 season is done.

 • Mike Pelfrey made his first start after TJS last year. His fastball speed was off 4-5 mph. In a study I did for the 2013 Hardball Times Annual, I found the a pitcher’s average fastball velocity stays basically the same after coming back from TJS so there is definite room for concern

 • Will Middlebrooks had an issue with the same wrist which he fractured last season. I would be a little worried about his production going forward since wrist injuries have been known to sap a player’s power.

 • Joe Wieland and Kyle Drabek were officially placed on the 60-day DL.

 • Andres Torres and Jose Mijares both pull out of the WBC for injuries.

Player Return Timetables

Name Injury Injury/Surgery Date Early Return Date Later Return date Status Source(s)
Scott Baker TJS 4/17/12 Mid April May Throwing off mound (1)
Grant Balfour Knee 2/14/13 Late March Middle April Throwing off mound (1)
Brandon Beachy TJS 6/21/12 Mid June Mid June Playing Catch (1)
Lance Berkman Knee 10/1/12 Late April Mid March Working out (1)
Jeremy Bonderman TJS 04/24/12 Late March Late March Healthy (1)
Tim Byrdak Shoulder Surgery 07/01/12 Early July Early July Bullpen Sessions (1)
Edwar Cabrera Shoulder 08/01/12 Mid March Unknown Unknown (1)
Chris Carpenter Nerve 02/05/13 September Retire Rest (1)
 Andrew Cashner Thumb laceration 1/25/13 Late March May Rest (1)
Carl Crawford TJS 8/23/12 Early March Late March Throwing (1)
Scott Diamond Elbow Surgery 10/1/12 Early April Early May Unknown (1)
Kyle Drabek TJS 6/19/12 Mid Season Mid Season Unknown (1)
Danny Duffy TJS 6/13/12 Early June All Star Game Throwing (1)
Neftali Feliz TJS 8/1/12 July August Playing Catch (1)
Frank Francisco Elbow 2/14/13 Late March Early April Throwing (1)
Rafael Furcal Elbow 2/20/13 Mid March Mid April Rest (1)
Mat Gamel Knee 2/18/13 2014 2014 Rest (1)
Matt Garza Strained Lat 2/21/13 Late March Mid April Throwing (1)
Curtis Granderson Right forearm 2/24/13 Early May Middle May Rest (1)
Corey Hart Right knee surgery 1/26/13 Late April Late May Rest (1)
Daniel Hudson TJS 7/9/12 July July Playing Catch (1)
Phil Hughes Bulging Disk 2/28/13 Late March Middle April Rest (1)
Drew Hutchison TJS 08/08/12 August October Rehabilitation (1)
Derek Jeter Fractured Left Ankle 10/1/12 Late March Late March Fielding (1)
Ryan Kalish Shoulder Surgery 1/25/13 Early April Unknown Rest (1)
Matt Kemp Shoulder 8/1/12 Late March Late March Light Training (1)
Colby Lewis Elbow Surgery 7/1/12 Late May June Throwing (1)
Francisco Liriano Broken humerus 12/1/12 Early April Late May Rest (1)
Cory Luebke TJS 5/23/12 July July Unknown (1)
Ryan Madson TJS 04/11/12 April May Rest (1)
Nick Masset Shoulder Surgery 09/07/12 Unknown Unknown Throwing (1)
Jeff Mathis Broken Collarbone 02/23/13 Mid March Mid March Rest (1)
Brian McCann Torn labrum 7/4/12 Mid April May Running and throwing (1)
Logan Morrison Knee 9/1/12 Late March Late April Light Training (1)
Charlie Morton TJS 06/21/12 June Unknown Throwing (1)
Juan Oviedo TJS 09/06/12 September 2014 Rest (1)
Felipe Paulino TJS 7/3/12 Early July Early July Unknown (1)
Carl Pavano Ruptured spleen 1/25/13 Late March Mid April Rest (1)
Mike Pelfrey TJS 05/01/12 Late March Late March Throwing (1)
Michael Pineda Shoulder Surgery 5/1/12 June Early July Rest (1)
Wilson Ramos ACL 5/1/12 Late March Late March Catching (1)
Alex Rodriguez Hip surgery 1/16/13 Early July 2014 season Rest (1)(2)
CC Sabathia Bone Spur 10/1/12 Late March Late March Throwing (1)
Johan Santana Back 2/25/13 Late March Middle April Throwing off mound (1)
George Sherrill TJS 5/1/11 Late April May Bullpen Sessions (1)
Joakim Soria TJS 4/2/12 Late May Early June Playing Catch (1)
Eric Surkamp TJS 07/24/12 Late July September Unknown (1)
Tsuyoshi Wada TJS 05/11/12 May June Throwing off mound (1)
Josh Tomlin TJS 08/22/12 August 2014 Rest (1)
Joe Wieland TJS 07/27/12 Early August 2014 Catch (1)
Brian Wilson TJS 4/19/12 Unknown Unknown Not ready to pitch (1)
Randy Wolf TJS 10/30/12 2014 2014 Rest (1)
Delmon Young Right ankle 10/1/12 Mid April Early May Rest (1)

Pitchers with Velocity Drops

Name 2013 2012 2011 2010
Alexi Ogando 93.1 96.9 95.0 96.2
Kelvin Herrera 95.0 98.5 96.2
Stephen Pryor 92.0 96.6
Mike Pelfrey 88.0 93.5 92.2 92.0

For reference, fastball speeds stabilize quickly and spring training values are on average 0.6 mph slower than the regular season.

Players Returning From Injury

No information yet.

Players Playing Through Injuries

Name Injury Source
Hanley Ramirez Shoulder (1)

Here is the list of players who should exceed their power projections for 2013:

Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Howard, Cameron Maybin, Trevor Plouffe, Justin Upton, Paul Konerko, Dustin Pedroia, Luke Scott, Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Pablo Sandoval, Carl Crawford, Giancarlo Stanton, Jacoby Ellsbury, Evan Longoria, and Troy Tulowitzki. New additions: Dustin Ackley, Matt LaPorta and Howie Kendrick




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Jeff writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times and Royals Review, as well as his own website, Baseball Heat Maps with his brother Darrell. In tandem with Bill Petti, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.


13 Responses to “MASH Report (2/28/13)”

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  1. Scott says:

    Format looks clean and simple (I mean that as a huge plus). Thanks for working with your readers to make this such a great feature.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      Thanks, I am trying to make it useful. Make sure to ask for anything you want added.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Matt Bertelli says:

        Love the work, here is an idea. Maybe separate tables of different statuses. Sometimes the one big spreadsheet can be overwhelming and it will only get bigger as the season starts. I was thinking one with 60 man DL, one with 15 man DL, and one with nagging injuries but not placed on the DL.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Jeff Zimmerman says:

    One other option I am considering is some way to designate a player is officially on the DL. I am thinking of an asterisk (*) next to the name. I thought of a column to the injury table, but it seemed too much. Thoughts?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Scott says:

      You could alternatively incorporate that into Matt Bertelli’s ‘separate tables’ suggestion. Different tables for 15 day/60 day/day-to-day/playing through it.

      It might make ti easier to digest, but it could also clog up the article with a bunch of tables. I think if you only separate the injury tables with a simple, bolded header, they would seem more like 1 well organized table than a monstrosity of different tables.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Phil says:

    Great feature! Thanks.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. Worm Turner says:

    This is becoming one of my favorite FG’s content, can only imagine how useful this will be in season.
    Good work!

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. CatWolf says:

    Jeff, go with the asterisk to designate players on the disabled list. Maybe * for the 15-day DL and ** for the 60-day.I agree that an additional column might be just a little too much.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. Cory says:

    This is an awesome article…

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. Matt says:

    Awesome job, Jeff – keep it coming.

    Thank you very much for your diligent work.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  8. Dave says:

    Zimmerman and Kemp are both playing through injuries right now… you think they’re going to beat their power projections?

    Who do you have as playing through injuries as of now? All I see is Hanley here, but I think you should also have:

    OF Jose Bautista (wrist)
    OF Matt Kemp (shoulder)
    1B Albert Pujols (knee)
    SS Troy Tulowitzki (groin)
    3B Ryan Zimmerman (shoulder)
    3B Aramis Ramirez (knee)
    C Victor Martinez (knee)
    2B/SS Danny Espinosa (shoulder)
    OF Nelson Cruz (chest)
    C/1B Mike Napoli (hip)
    3B Will Middlebrooks (wrist)
    DH David Ortiz (achilles)
    OF Cameron Maybin (wrist)
    2B Chase Utley (knee)
    2B Neil Walker (back)
    C Russell Martin (shoulder)
    1B/3B Kevin Youkilis (oblique)
    OF Colby Rasmus (shoulder)
    C Alex Avila (knee)
    C Jarrod Saltalamacchia (back)
    OF Nolan Reimold (neck/shoulder)
    OF Andy Dirks (intercostal strain)
    OF Jonny Gomes (knee)
    OF Justin Ruggiano (back)
    2B Daniel Murphy (side)
    OF Carlos Quentin (knee)
    SS Derek Jeter (ankle)

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