MASH Report (7/8/13)

Today, I will examine five pitchers who came off the DL this past week and give a top 30 ranking for HURT and PAIN.

• Yesterday, Joakim Soria made his 2013 debut after his 2nd Tommy John Surgery. He came out only throwing fastballs with an average velocity of 90.2 mph.

This speed is about 1.5 mph less than his MLB average fastball velocity. Besides the drop in speed, the fact he didn’t throw a single other pitch type worries me a bit. He was at his best when he was able to mix up pitches and keep batters on their heels. I am not buying in yet. I want to see a little more production from him.

A.J. Burnett‘s fastball velocity is inline with values from this and previous seasons.

Chad Gaudin‘s velocity was down a tick, but was inline with the velocity from his other starts vice his relief appearances.

Don’t fall for the low ERA (2.44) and expect some regression as his BABIP inches higher from its current .261 level.

Anibal Sanchez had his highest average fastball velocity game when compared to any other one over the past 3 seasons.

Sanchez’s inconsistent release points is another main issue I have with him. He has been all over the place this season.

Besides being all over the place, he is now releasing closer to the middle of the rubber than he ever did previously.

It would be nice for him to quit search for a new position and stick with one.

Mike Pelfrey‘s velocity looks great (like you care).

HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (no min PA in 2013 and at least 400 PA from 2010 to 2012):

Any player with a HURT value over 100 (red) has the traits of a batter playing through an injury.

Rank Name HURT PA (2013) PA (2010 to 2012)
1 B.J. Upton 187.2 303 1883
2 Nolan Reimold 162.0 124 505
3 Albert Pujols 158.4 387 2021
4 Seth Smith 158.4 292 1372
5 Endy Chavez 133.2 231 443
6 Alex Avila 126.0 215 1318
7 Aramis Ramirez 121.2 209 1763
8 Melky Cabrera 121.2 335 1716
9 Jason Kubel 117.6 196 1554
10 Jimmy Rollins 115.2 374 1724
11 Lance Berkman 115.2 282 1165
12 Miguel Montero 112.8 329 1457
13 Chris Iannetta 110.4 242 902
14 Matt Kemp 108.0 246 1806
15 Giancarlo Stanton 103.2 195 1498
16 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 102.0 265 864
17 Robert Andino 100.8 85 1008
18 Justin Turner 100.8 102 690
19 Chris Johnson 99.6 259 1295
20 Dustin Ackley 99.6 200 1044
21 Mark Teixeira 99.6 63 1920
22 Ike Davis 97.2 218 1334
23 Kevin Youkilis 96.0 118 1461
24 Andres Torres 94.8 225 1402
25 Ty Wigginton 92.4 63 1455
26 Cesar Izturis 92.4 87 719
27 Brandon Inge 91.2 105 1214
28 Jason Heyward 90.0 272 1730
29 Brandon Phillips 90.0 357 1985
30 Tyler Colvin 87.6 71 1069

Brandon Phillips showing up at the bottom of the HURT ranking surprised me a bit. A quick Google search turned up a major HBP on June 1st. So on and before June 1st, Phillips was hitting .291/.340/.476. Since then, he is hitting .200/.254/.286. His ISO by month is:

Mar/Apr: .164
May: .214
June: .070
July: .136

At least his July ISO is higher than June’s. To see if he is over the HBP, I would need to see his ISO continue to inch up.

PAIN (Pitcher Abuse INdex) Rankings (no minimums for 2012 and 2013)

Any player with a PAIN value over 100 (red) has the traits of a pitcher likely to be hurt.

Rank Name PAIN IP (2013) IP (2012)
1 Jason Marquis 228.4 107.0 127.2
2 Jeff Locke 218.7 102.0 34.1
3 Jared Hughes 213.1 16.1 75.2
4 Lucas Harrell 184.7 103.2 193.2
5 Jonathan Broxton 158.0 27.0 58.0
6 Cory Gearrin 154.9 31.0 20.0
7 Alexi Ogando 146.0 55.1 66.0
8 Tanner Scheppers 144.0 43.0 32.1
9 Esmil Rogers 139.5 65.2 78.2
10 Javier Lopez 138.7 20.2 36.0
11 Chris Resop 137.0 18.0 73.2
12 Matt Moore 129.9 100.0 177.1
13 Wily Peralta 122.5 97.1 29.0
14 Santiago Casilla 121.0 19.0 63.1
15 John Axford 105.2 37.0 69.1
16 Luis Mendoza 102.9 81.1 166.0
17 Matt Harrison 102.4 10.2 213.1
18 Francisco Liriano 100.0 69.2 156.2
19 Mark Lowe 99.4 11.2 39.1
20 Franklin Morales 91.1 12.1 76.1
21 Scott Feldman 87.3 97.0 123.2
22 Craig Stammen 85.5 46.2 88.1
23 Felix Hernandez 85.3 123.2 232.0
24 Brett Myers 80.9 21.1 65.1
25 Jake Westbrook 80.0 68.0 174.2
26 Carlos Villanueva 79.9 74.1 125.1
27 Ryan Dempster 77.4 107.0 173.0
28 Paco Rodriguez 77.1 30.2 6.2
29 Michael Bowden 76.7 16.2 39.2
30 Barry Enright 74.8 8.1 3.2

Wily Peralta last start was skipped because of a pulled hamstring. A hamstring is not the arm injuries I look for with PAIN. He does have some classic arm injury signs. First, a lower velocity.

Next, a low Zone% (42.5%) which is lower than his 2012 value of 44.9%. Additionally, he is taking an extra 1.5 secs longer between pitches. Finally, he has been trying to find a consistent horizontal release point over the course of the season (1.5 ft difference).

Maybe the hamstring injury will give Peralta a chance to rest the injury which may be ailing his arm.

Players on the DL

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
Red colored entries are updates since last report.



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Jeff writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first season in Tout Wars, he won the H2H league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.


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Blockhead
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Blockhead

I saw Soria at one of his rehab outings and he was throwing mostly change-ups and his curve, which was still filthy.

Not sure why he didn’t use them yesterday, but I wouldn’t be too worried.

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