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Daily Fantasy Strategy – 9/13/13 – For Draftstreet
Posted By Brett Talley On September 13, 2013 @ 10:15 am In Daily Fantasy Update | 7 Comments
Unless I’m just missing it, I don’t believe you can create a custom leaderboard of the day’s probable starters here on the site. Other sites might have some data on the day’s starters, but I’m not aware of it. But every time I pick a lineup I want to look at how each pitcher fares against hitters of each handedness and how homer prone they are. So below you’ll see a screenshot of a custom leaderboard I created to help me pick hitters today.
If some other site is already providing something like this, please let me know and I’ll avoid posting something similar in the future. But if this is something you’d like to see again, let me know. And if you have any suggestions about different or additional stats you would find helpful if included, let me know that as well.
After the jump is the chart, and we’ll use it to pick some hitters.
Adam Eaton, $6,440 – Eaton has the platoon advantage against right-hander Tyler Chatwood. Chatwood’s K% is 1.8% worse lower against lefties compared to righties, and his walk rate is 2.3% higher. And four his five homers allowed have been to left-handers. Admittedly, Eaton’s upside is somewhat limited because he’s not a big power threat, but Eaton’s price is a little lower than the average amount I generally have left so spend on hitters after selecting three starters. So this is a bit of a bargain given the good matchup.
Oswaldo Arcia, $4,637 – Arcia is facing a guy I like today in Chris Archer. But Archer has been much, much better against right-handers in his career. He has allowed a .167/.237/.219 slash to right-handers compared to a .257/.330/.469 slash to left-handers. As you can see the slugging allowed to lefties is pretty high. His career HR/9 vs. LHH is 1.55 and his career HR/FB is 15.5%. And Arcia has a .199 ISO against right-handed pitchers.
Chris Carter, $6,380 / Matt Dominguez, $5,267 – Carter and Dominguez will have the platoon advantage over Jason Vargas today who has allowed a .433 slugging percentage to right-handers in his career compared to a .396 slugging percentage to left-handers. He is striking out righties at a higher rate than lefties this year, but he’s also walking righties at a higher rate and, more importantly, allowing homers to righties at a higher rate.
Stephen Strasburg, $17,173 – Of all the elite starters going today, and there are quite a few of them, Strasbug probably has the best matchup. He’ll face the Phillies who are 22nd in the league against right-handed pitching according to wRC+. Justin Verlander might have a little better matchup against the Royals, but we all know that Verlander hasn’t been in Strasburg’s class this year.
Dan Straily, $11,599 – How about a cheaper starting option? It’s a dangerous game to play streaks in daily contests, but the Rangers offense is going through a severe bad streak right now. I know, I’ve watched all of it. To put a number on it, they have the 24th worst wRC+ over the last 14 days. But I’ll be at this game rooting for the Rangers offense to turn it around. I’d be happy to lose my daily contest tomorrow if it meant a Rangers win.
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