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  1. Lot of overlap with my Ottoneu squad, though I got some of them for cheaper as our league got a little too cash crazy in the early going:

    Aramis Ramirez $8
    Jed Lowrie $1
    Nelson Cruz $19
    Carlos Quentin $4
    Matt Joyce $3
    Francisco Liriano $30
    Casey Kelly $1

    In other words, I’m hoping great minds think alike.

    Comment by DonChrysler — March 21, 2011 @ 1:37 pm

  2. Hate to see $10 left on the board. Big Donkey seems steep at $41, but I’m not quite sure how the scoring works. Javy V @ $1 is ridiculous, a year ago i’d say he’d at least go for 10-15. Maybe you should have splurged early on Santana over Soto?

    Comment by verd14 — March 21, 2011 @ 1:39 pm

  3. When can we expect combined OF rankings?

    Comment by Mycroft — March 21, 2011 @ 1:40 pm

  4. Your best pick is Ryan Howard. At $27 (and especially compared to Adam Dunn’s $41) he is an absolute steal. A healthy Howard probably hits 40 HRs and gets on base at a pretty decent clip. Also, if Utley comes back or somebody starts to produce in that three spot, he’s going to drive even more runs in.

    Based on the info above, the worst pick is Soto. Unless all of the catchers were EXTREMELY inflated, $26 is pretty inexcusable. A keeper/auction league is all about value and the best case scenario for Soto MAYBE makes him a $26 player. A guy like Carlos Ruiz probably went for half of that and he’ll provide 80% of the value. It also kills your flexibility in terms of trading. As somebody taking a win-now approach you need cap space to add players at the end of the season when parts of the league are going all-in and others are rebuilding. That $20-30 injury replacement or additional outfielder that could put you over the top is going to be unattainable with a loan facilitated by your limited stall of prospects or a player that will be very valuable as a keeper.

    Comment by Chris — March 21, 2011 @ 1:43 pm

  5. …without* a loan…

    Comment by Chris — March 21, 2011 @ 1:44 pm

  6. This was the Geovany Soto with a 385 wOBA last year? Was there a catcher with a higher one last year? I have a feeling that there wasn’t. Ok, Ruiz’s was 366 but I’d have Geo as a far better bet to repeat. He projects to provide offensive excellence at a scarce position. Plus using linear weights frees hims (somewhat) from the shackles of the Cubs’ abysmal lineup construction. If Stephen Drew is worth $25… I think the worst pick is Quentin at $19. I’ve stopped believing the upside is real and I don’t see his on base skills being good enough to overcome the contact issues. At $10 I’d like it, not $19. I do like On-Base Willie Willingham though for $9. His old-man skills will reward that in spades.

    Comment by Daniel — March 21, 2011 @ 2:08 pm

  7. That $10 goes to the FAAB portion. The $400 OttoNeu budgets is for both the draft and in-season bidding.

    Comment by Zach Sanders — March 21, 2011 @ 2:44 pm

  8. I’m nuts over the Matt Joyce pick at that price (or the guy who got him at $3). I feel that’s your best pick, given that PECOTA projects him somewhere around 670 points for the season. At $7, I think that’s a steal for now and the next couple of years. He’s relatively young, still has upside, and with the flexibility / potential for injury in the Rays lineup, has the potential for 500 AB.

    Alternatively, I HATE Carlos Quentin at $19. PECOTA projects him worse than Joyce this year – only 623 points in just a few more AB than Joyce. While PECOTA isn’t the end-all be-all, I also have a hard time seeing Quentin get more than 500 AB, and with his injury woes, like his upside potential far less than Joyce. Yeah, the Cell is a bandbox, and yeah, he gets some weak AL Central pitchers, but I don’t buy continued ’08-style production. If he starts hot, salary-dump him for a prospect. You could use some good, young, high-volume hitters.

    Comment by bgrosnick — March 21, 2011 @ 2:50 pm

  9. For pitchers, I’m down with Carlos Marmol at the low price. While the walks hurt a lot in this league, he doesn’t give up many HR and will certainly be good for SV. Otto seems to rate closers properly, which is not too well, but Marmol seems like the right value…I mean, it’s not like his walk rate is going to get substantially WORSE, right? He should be good for a couple of years at that value. He’s your best – but I love Takahashi as a $1 buy as well.

    I like most of your pitching picks. Not so fond of Scrabble as a $1 pick. I don’t know how premium pitching prospects numbered out – but he seems terribly useless as a last arm on the bench. I feel that you would’ve better been served with a one-three year lottery ticket – Akeel Morris, Ethan Martin, or Chris Dwyer?

    Comment by bgrosnick — March 21, 2011 @ 3:01 pm

  10. I think the best pick is definitely Uggla at 31. Second base is full of question marks this year, and Uggla is as reliable as they get. He’s not switching leagues, he’s guaranteed production, and considering the position scarcity he’s a complete lock to give you barely less than tier 1 production.

    Worst pick for me is Dunn. It has nothing to do with the production, which will be fine, but in the weighted points format you should be able to get that, or close to that kind of production at half the cost. 1B is so, so deep. And if you’re planning on keeping him, he’s not likely to age well (and his salary is far too high to begin with.) You’ve got Howard at 27 and that’s already an indication of how much of an overpay Dunn is at 41.

    I also think catcher is a relatively low impact position in this format outside of Posey, Mauer, and Martinez – I wouldn’t ever go more than $10 for a catcher in this format.

    Comment by weebs — March 21, 2011 @ 3:07 pm

  11. Best pick is probably Josh Willingham @ $9. His strength is his ability to get on base, which is highly rewarded in the format. Oakland and switching league may surpress his power, but he fits the Moneyball quota and he will get on base. I also think Jed Lowrie will be a huge steal. He’ll overtake the starting role by June latest and having extra MI options is great.

    Worst pick is definitely Adam Dunn. Way too expensive with not too much keeper value. I’d look at exploring some trade options, solely to dump the salary, not even to get fair production back, especially with Ryan Howard.

    Comment by pand75 — March 21, 2011 @ 3:20 pm

  12. spicey

    Comment by verd14 — March 21, 2011 @ 5:04 pm

  13. Good thing batting average isn’t counted. It’s funny how there are so many good players who hit between .250 and .270. Of course, you’re biggest mistake is not getting Alex Gordon. Let the domination commence.

    Comment by hawkinscm — March 21, 2011 @ 6:50 pm

  14. tomorrow

    Comment by Eno Sarris — March 21, 2011 @ 6:54 pm

  15. Amazing how closely the Otto leagues have been in spreading value over the same players. I have Howard, Papelbon, Norris, and Franklin all at the same prices. Dunn is close to what we have him for, but Soto really does stand out. He went for $6 in our league; C. Santana, Posey, and Mauer all going for $33+. Willingham went for $2 in our league. Looks like our league had more trouble holding the line on top prospects with Harper, Hosmer. Montero, Belt, etc. all going for several dollars more.

    Comment by LuckyStrikes — March 21, 2011 @ 7:56 pm

  16. Your offense was spooky because I took Soto, Drew, Ramirez, Cruz, Bay, Joyce as starters on my ESPN team yesterday.

    great minds…

    Comment by Matty Brown — March 21, 2011 @ 8:02 pm

  17. my league used OBP instead of AVG, and I repleaced Runs with SLG%, btw.

    Comment by Matty Brown — March 21, 2011 @ 8:02 pm

  18. Honestly I think Cahil is a great pick for four dollars. Yes he is likely to regress but still he is at least a number two innings eater for most teams. He is still young and should be valuable for awhile. Most of these picks are ok, but I think you forget that dunn will dh and that will impact his value. Dh is worth half a pinch hitter in terms of penalties according to the
    book. Pineda seems a bit high, you have to consider how volatile minor league arms are. I’d spend more prospect money on hitters like Freeman for five dollars

    Comment by Sun king — March 21, 2011 @ 9:56 pm

  19. I feel so much better now. I took so much crap for paying $17 for Stephen Drew.

    Jesus Montero, Brandon Belt, Dustin Ackley, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, all went for $14+ in my league.

    I justify any stupid buys I made with my $21 Mike Stanton steal when Heyward went for $39.

    Comment by JJBellomo — March 22, 2011 @ 2:15 am

  20. Your OF is going to look pretty rough when Cruz hits the DL in early May.

    Comment by Calogero — March 22, 2011 @ 12:04 pm

  21. bgrosnick come on down! You’ve won a team-year. Sign up on Ottoneu.fangraphs.com and then email me at enosarris at hotmail and I’ll get you reimbursed!

    Thanks everyone for playing!

    Comment by Eno Sarris — March 22, 2011 @ 2:38 pm

  22. well, dunn and uggla have absolutely sucked, liriano and soto haven’t been to great, and drew’s batting has been only OK. I’m guessing this team is in last right now

    Comment by William — July 7, 2011 @ 12:40 pm

  23. 9th but selling yeah.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — July 7, 2011 @ 2:01 pm

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