Chat transcript is below:
Chat transcript is below:
Last year, Tout Wars was nice enough to allow me to join their Head-to-Head league which I preceded to barely win. I just got informed that I will not be in this league anymore. Instead, I was upgraded and will join fellow RotoGraphs author, Al Melchior in the 15-team mixed auction league. Previously I’ve stepped through my preparation process for these industry leagues but this year I can’t. We are picking our player in New York City right before the season starts on March 25th. Besides Tout Wars, most local leagues will be drafting this weekend just before Opening Day. Anything I write about my procedure leading up the auction will be useless. Instead, I will write about my preparation over the next two months leading up to the auction.
Unlikely last year, this year’s preparation focuses on an established league with the same good owners. It will be a different animal to conquer than last year the league with some unique rules (H2H and Roto), which I exploited as much as I could. The new league is different in that it has been very constant. Many of the same owners stay around for years and it has few if any rule changes. I will first begin my prep by breaking down the other information from past auctions.
Note: I know reading about another person’s team is unexciting and some information might be not applicable. I’ve added “Key Points” to summarize how the procedure can help individual owners in their own leagues.
Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as an early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.
The Graduate: Tim Anderson (SS): The club’s first round pick from 2013, Anderson was promoted to the majors more quickly than expected and performed much better than expected. With that said, some regression should be expected for 2017. His 27% strikeout rate is very high for someone with limited home-run pop and that needs to get on base to take advantage of his speed. He walked just 13 times in 99 games — good for a minuscule 3% walk rate. However, if he learns to tighten his approach at the plate, he could develop into a top-of-the-order threat with potentially plus defensive skills.
Last year around the cut deadline, I took it upon myself to lead the charge that you’re keeping too many players on your ottoneu team. With the general premise that, despite our best efforts, leagues are heading into their annual auctions with less than optimal keeping habits.
This was not meant as some form of tell all. Certainly it’s reasonable to think that teams should keep some star prospects, or a slightly overpaid Mike Trout if they think they can trade him. However, with the keeper deadline a week and a half away, I want to take some time to update this study for completeness and also update some potential shortcomings. Read the rest of this entry »
Not everybody bothers with mock drafts. However, if you’re the type of person to read articles on RotoGraphs, you probably mock. Public mocks can be painful – too many autodrafts, noob picks, and people selecting straight from the site ADP. Not to rub your nose in it, but I’m fortunate. My position gives me ready access to mock drafts with fellow industry folk. Our drafts are usually meant to be publicly discussed. It keeps us honest.
I usually do about 10 mock drafts per season. In the past, I’ve generally picked true to my valuations. In other words, I made sure to stretch just enough to get my favorite sleepers and breakout picks. Last night, I participated in a mock with the RotoBaller team. After the first few rounds, an all to obvious question occurred to me – why am I picking guys I like?
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Leading Off: Question of the Day (1:20)
Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play
Strategy Section: Team-by-Team Breakdowns
Power often comes with punch outs. When homers aren’t tied to strikeouts, that’s usually the profile of an elite hitter. In 2016, only six players with more than 250 plate appearances recorded a Hard% north of 40% and a K% south of 20%. One of those six players, David Ortiz, is now retired. Joining Big Papi in that group of hitters was Josh Donaldson, Miguel Cabrera, Matt Carpenter, Jose Bautista and Kendrys Morales.
Using the NFBC ADP data, Donaldson and Cabrera require roughly a top-15 pick for their services with the former carrying an 11.16 ADP and the latter sitting at 15.58. Carpenter has an ADP of 70.58 and Bautista’s ADP is 118.16 after a down year. Lagging way behind this group is Morales with an ADP of 178.21, a minimum pick of 116 and a maximum pick of 213. Yes, Morales’ utility only eligibility at most fantasy sports sites is less than ideal and should be baked into his ADP, but it looks like there’s plenty of wiggle room for a profit. Read the rest of this entry »
When pitchers injure their ulnar collateral ligament (UCL), there are very few things to be happy about. If you’re cheering for your favourite player, or your favourite team, you don’t get to see the best players compete. If you ARE the pitcher injuring your UCL, it means you don’t get to play your sport for at least a year, and you have a painstaking rehabilitation process ahead of you. Go ahead and read “The Arm” by Jeff Passan – and tell me you’d want to wish the process described by Todd Coffey and Daniel Hudson on anyone.
Tommy John Surgery is an exceptional feat of modern medicine. First being performed by the legendary Dr. Frank Jobe in the mid 70’s, this surgery allows pitchers who suffer an injury that was once career ending, to continue pitching at the highest level. Check out Jon Roegele’s Tommy John Surgery list (https://twitter.com/mlbplayeranalys) – there were no teams in the MLB in 2016 who did not employ a pitcher who once had Tommy John Surgery. Despite it no longer being a death sentence for pitching careers, it does keep pitchers out of the game for a long period of time. The average time to return from a Tommy John Surgery (or UCL reconstruction) remains between 11 and 30 months (Erickson et al., 2014).
Let’s finish up new xK% equation week with a look at which starting pitchers gained and lost the most with the new coefficients versus the old ones. Though all of the coefficients increased, while the intercept is now a higher negative number, the L/Str and F/Str coefficients increased more dramatically than those for Str% and S/Str. So, one would imagine that a pitcher relying more on looking and foul strikes, as opposed to swinging, would get a relative boost using the new equation.
As we continue our tour of the NFBC average draft data by position, I want to reiterate something I may have been unclear about early on: this isn’t a ranking list and as such, not every player will be mentioned. Additionally, every position header after these intros is a link to the ADP data of said position.
I have to go two parts on outfield, it’s too robust. I’ll go first 50 today and then the rest in another piece.