FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball

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  1. Bautista should be in the top tier.

    Comment by duder — April 23, 2011 @ 12:36 pm

  2. Just had to pick up Reynolds in ottoneu for $10 as a free agent after Stewart was demoted and Rolen hurt his shoulder. I’m worried that the Rolen injury could be a Bad Thing, as opposed to the day to day issue it’s being made out to be right now. I’m worried about Reynolds, but I had him valued at $20 during the draft, and I don’t think a slow start across three weeks constitutes a 50% drop in value. His HR/FB% is waaay below his career average right now, but he’s also hitting more ground balls than ever. Strikeout rate is down, but so is his walk rate, so maybe he’s pressing or has changed his approach.

    Went from deep (though not outstanding) at 3B being without a 3B in about a week.
    -j

    Comment by Justin Merry — April 23, 2011 @ 12:41 pm

  3. I think he’s close.

    Comment by Michael Barr — April 23, 2011 @ 12:43 pm

  4. yeah, while Rolen might return, that’s the kind of injury that I could certainly see linger for a while. Reynolds for $10 is a good enough deal, let’s hope he starts to figure things out.

    Comment by Michael Barr — April 23, 2011 @ 12:49 pm

  5. Agreed. He’s tearing the cover off the ball in his series vs. TB. He looks like a lock for +35 HR

    Comment by Andy — April 23, 2011 @ 1:43 pm

  6. It’s amazing how good he is doing every pitcher is trying to pitch him away and with junk and he is playing as good as anyone right now.

    Comment by MattK — April 23, 2011 @ 1:47 pm

  7. If a player on the DL the majority of the season is first on this list objectivity has failed you.

    Comment by Sal — April 23, 2011 @ 2:06 pm

  8. Agreed.

    “If Bautista or Beltre were off to insane starts…”

    He’s actually having an as-good-if-not-better season than A-Rod right now. While Bautsita is slightly behind in OBP, he’s beating Rodriguez in BB, HR, TB, RC, and WAR, so I’m quite sure I follow the logic here.

    No big deal, I suppose. Rest of the rankings seem about right.

    Comment by lee — April 23, 2011 @ 2:16 pm

  9. 3B is a lot deeper than I thought it was at the start of the season. That tier 4 is not too shabby.

    Comment by Shaggychild — April 23, 2011 @ 3:07 pm

  10. Bautista was not happy with your piece and he took his anger out on David Price today.

    Comment by Owen — April 23, 2011 @ 3:44 pm

  11. he totally did! All Bautista owners: you’re welcome.

    Comment by Michael Barr — April 23, 2011 @ 3:55 pm

  12. There also should be a name for the quasi-cycle he had last night: BB, 2B, 3B, HR. In fact, it was 2 BB’s — that should add up to a 1B, right?

    Comment by jrogers — April 23, 2011 @ 7:04 pm

  13. Going under the assumption Ryan Roberts takes the third base job from Mora (which shouldn’t be that hard), would he move up to at least the 4th tier? He’s currently hitting as well as chipper jones and polanco.

    Comment by Just Jim — April 23, 2011 @ 7:43 pm

  14. 2 HR + 1 SB today off David Price just to shove it in your face… after nearly hitting for the cycle off Hellickson. TAKE IT BACK! The “fluke” talk is done, he’s going to hit 35+ HR and will easily tally 100+ R and RBI hitting in the middle of the Jays lineup every day, plus it looks like even 8-10 SB to boot. The ZIP’s ROS projections have an excessively low playing time forecast.

    For people like me who are in OPS leagues, I would argue that he is the #1 3B right now.

    Comment by batpig — April 23, 2011 @ 9:34 pm

  15. Current projection for Roberts: .248/.323/.383.

    That doesn’t make me feel better after he just killed my Reds, but I’m not really interested in him.

    Comment by Justin Merry — April 23, 2011 @ 9:37 pm

  16. A-Rod is #1 or 2 if this is a non-keeper format — you can’t just ignore the injuries to Longoria and Zimmerman, they affect their value, as do the mediocre line-ups they hit in, which make them less valuable in fantasy than real life. Youkilis and Bautista are top tier, not very far behind Zimmerman.

    The second tier are Sandoval, Beltre, Aramis, and Young. Who would take Aramis or Beltre over Panda in a draft that was held today? Aramis is clearly in the decline phase, Beltre is also aging and is clearly going to regress sharply to the mean.

    Once Young is elevated, hard for me to distinguish tiers 3 and 4, except that I’d take Alvarez over any of them.

    Izturis and Roberts are well up in tier 5, knocking on the door of tier 4. When you’re scraping that low, you can’t disdain the hot hand — at least they’re getting the playing time and hitting high in the order.

    Comment by AF — April 24, 2011 @ 1:27 am

  17. Isn’t Arod the league leader in OPS?

    Comment by DT — April 24, 2011 @ 2:02 am

  18. I bet this article was written before Bautista’s 2 hr performance today

    Comment by mo2119 — April 24, 2011 @ 4:17 am

  19. Non-keeper, non-dynasty? I would *definitely* take Beltre over Panda, and quite possibly Aramis also. Beltre over Panda seems no-brainerish.

    Comment by Jason B — April 24, 2011 @ 7:32 pm

  20. No brainerish to take Beltre over Panda? Is that based on ZIPS projections (Beltre — 280/321/498 v. Sandoval — 298/352/490), April performance (Beltre — .253/.268/.544 v. Sandoval –308/.375/.569), or age (Beltre — 32 v. Sandoval — 24)?

    It’s only a no brainer to take Beltre over Panda if you live in a world where a player’s value is determined by his previous year’s performance. Admittedly, a great number of fantasy players and even professional teams do this (that’s why my Giants are stuck with Aaron Rowand — and it’s how Beltre got his first big contract with the Mariners). But it’s a mistake.

    Comment by AF — April 24, 2011 @ 9:35 pm

  21. If only the Jays could gets on base for Jose. How many of his 7 bombs so far have been solo shots? I guess pitchers are probably more aggressive pitching to him with the bases empty but still. He had 9 hits last week and something like 7 or 8 were for extra bases, including 4 home runs, and all he had to show for it were 4 RBI. That’s crazy. Yeah maybe small sample, maybe how he gets pitched with nobody on, but also the terrible OBP of the hitters in front of him.

    I think Bautista could potentially keep hitting at the same pace as the top tier guys, but he might not produce as well as they do (RBI’s mainly) because of the lesser hitters in front of him. I would put him last in the top tier (for now) or at least ahead of Youk at the top of tier 2

    Comment by Dave — April 25, 2011 @ 11:49 am

  22. to all – I’m sure you understand why I need to be conservative with the rankings 20 games into the season. But if things continue the way they have started, know that there will be some major changes in the rankings in a month. To be sure, if Bautista continues like this, he could find himself at the top.

    Comment by Michael Barr — April 25, 2011 @ 11:54 am

  23. That’s right, AF, we base a lot of our thinking on how a player will do this year based on what he’s done in the past. It seems to be a better way to project future performance than what you’re offering… which seems to be not much beyond fanboi-ism.

    Comment by JoeC — April 25, 2011 @ 11:58 am

  24. JoeC: Read more carefully. I said previous *year’s* performance, ie, one year. Of course we project based on past performance, but you have to take into account more than one year. What I’m offering is 2008-2011 performance, instead of just 2010.

    If you think only 2010 matters, shouldn’t Bautista be your #1 and Beltre your #2?

    Comment by AF — April 25, 2011 @ 12:22 pm

  25. Just waiting until 2012 when the data normalizes and says it’s okay.

    Trust me, it’s okay now.

    Comment by LionoftheSenate — April 25, 2011 @ 5:06 pm

  26. sorry but Adrian Beltre is a tier 1 third baseman better than Alex Rodriguez. Adrian has 7 HRs now.

    Comment by Jeff — April 25, 2011 @ 5:54 pm

  27. Yep, that .289 OBP screams “TOP TIER.”

    Comment by kswissreject — April 26, 2011 @ 10:31 am

  28. I think on-base percentage is an overrated stat.

    Comment by Dwayne Murphy — April 30, 2011 @ 11:22 am

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