• Roto Riteup: June 18, 2017
    by Paul Sporer - 6/18 -  1
    Healy mashes again, a pair of White Sox are fueling their offense, who is Cleveland's best hitter?, and 2016 award winner continues to falter.
  • Roto Riteup
    The most roto-relevant news of the previous day, recapped in a concise format for your morning coffee.
  • Bullpen Report
    Detailed daily updates and charts on every bullpen in the Major Leagues to help you manage your saves and holds.
  • Prospect Coverage
    Our prospect team mines the minors for top prospects and useful pieces alike.
  • MASH Report
    Award-winning in-depth injury report with analysis from Jeff Zimmerman.
  • The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast
    Eno Sarris, Paul Sporer, and Jason Collette lead the RotoGraphs staff in a regular fantasy podcast.
  • Daily Fantasy Strategy
    The RotoGraphs team discusses daily fantasy strategy and then makes picks for the day.
  • Ottoneu Strategy
    Strategy for the year-round FanGraphs Fantasy game.
  • Top 50 Fantasy Prospects
    Marc Hulet adjusts (and updates) his prospect list for fantasy purposes.
  • Field of Streams
    A contest to see who can make the better picks: streaming pitcher and hitter choices for every day of the season in a podcast hosted by Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin.
C  -  1B  -  2B  -  SS  -  3B  -  OF  -  SP  -  RP

Rick Porcello: What’s Gone Wrong?

No one expected Rick Porcello to repeat his 2016 Cy Young season besides maybe his mom. And she probably had some doubts. Before the season started, I thought he was getting punished too much especially after some second half changes. So far, I have been wrong with Porcello maintaining his 2016 production with a 3-9 record and a 5.05 ERA. Here’s what has gone wrong.

Less Help

Last season, quite a bit of Porcello’s fantasy value came from his 22 Wins. While 22 Wins was out of the question this season, owners expected more than three. Porcellos has giving up an extra run per game and the Red Sox offense has dropped off.

Last season, they average scoring 5.4 R/G and this season that number has dropped to 4.7 R/G. With the league scoring up, the Red Sox have gone the other direction. Read the rest of this entry »


Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – June 23rd, 2017

Chat will start around 2:25 PM CT

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Are the Dodgers playing DL games?

On the last MASH report, I discussed Alex Wood’s S/C joint sprain, and many of the commenters claimed it was #FAKENEWS.

The 10 Day DL has been identified as a possible way to “game the system”, and give additional days of rest to starting pitchers. Given the injury history of some of the Dodgers pitchers (Brandon McCarthy, Alex Wood, and Rich Hill are the most prevalent), it would make sense to give these guys some extra time – sure, you’d lose some innings compared to if they stayed healthy, but at some point in time, you want to get the most quality innings out of them that you can. Looking at the research, days between appearances, and total innings pitched are risk factors for UCL reconstruction – so, this would reduce two of those risk factors.

So, are the Dodgers playing games with the 10 Day DL?

I performed a query on Starting Pitchers who have been on the 10 Day DL, and returned to play in 2017. I calculated the average number of days that were missed, and the number of pitchers on each team who made DL appearances. How does this shake out? Well, first of all – the Dodgers have the most number of Staring Pitcher 10 Day DL trips of any MLB team; 6 of them to be exact. The average number of days on the DL for these DL trips was 14.3 days per trip. The longest trip they had to the DL belonged to Rich Hill – a 23 day appearance (which was followed by a separate 10 day appearance). When Rich Hill is removed from that list, the days per DL appearance drop to 11.75. They are playing it by the letter of the law when it comes to SP DL stints.

 

10 Day Disabled List Trips – Starting Pitchers (and return to play)
Team Average Days Missed Total Days Missed Min DL Stay Max DL Stay Pitchers on DL
1 Los Angeles Dodgers 14.3 86 10 29 6
2 Oakland Athletics 24.4 122 12 49 5
3 Miami Marlins 26.4 132 10 63 5
4 Toronto Blue Jays 23.3 93 13 43 4
5 San Diego Padres 16.7 50 10 25 3
6 Texas Rangers 19.0 57 16 25 4
7 Baltimore Orioles 21.3 64 10 38 3
8 Milwaukee Brewers 30.0 90 10 52 3
9 Cincinnati Reds 12.5 25 11 14 3
10 Tampa Bay Rays 13.0 26 10 16 2
11 Seattle Mariners 27.0 54 26 28 2
12 Los Angeles Angels 17.0 34 11 23 3
13 Houston Astros 13.0 26 10 16 2
14 Boston Red Sox 35.0 70 12 58 3
15 Philadelphia Phillies 21.0 42 12 30 3
16 New York Mets 72.0 72 72 72 2
17 Chicago White Sox 62.0 62 62 62 2
18 St. Louis Cardinals 51.0 51 51 51 1
19 Kansas City Royals 16.0 16 16 16 1
20 Colorado Rockies 10.0 10 10 10 1
21 Pittsburgh Pirates 39.0 39 39 39 1
22 Washington Nationals 10.0 10 10 10 1
23 Cleveland Indians 29.0 29 29 29 1
24 Arizona Diamondbacks 25.0 25 25 25 1
25 Minnesota Twins 14.0 14 14 14 1
26 New York Yankees 0.0 0 0 0 1

While this may suck for Fantasy owners – this is great for the Dodgers. This offseason, the Dodgers front office signed a ton of Starting Pitching depth – many of the pitchers having a history of high quality pitching and missing many games due to injury. They have been able to call on this depth to fill the rotation when extra rest days are required, and still manage to put their team in the best position to win.

Check out the Starting Pitcher workloads for the Dodgers. They currently have the 11th most Starting Innings of any MLB team, yet are 25th when it comes to Fatigue Units for Starters.

Starting Pitcher Workloads
 IP Rank Team Starting Innings Fatigue Units Average Fatigue Units
1 Giants 442.3 41.0 6.8
2 Nationals 438.3 44.4 6.3
3 Diamondbacks 421.0 46.0 5.7
4 Rays 419.7 44.1 5.5
5 Red Sox 418.3 38.8 4.3
6 Rockies 418.0 40.8 5.8
7 Angels 413.0 40.8 4.5
8 Astros 407.0 44.3 4.9
9 Cardinals 404.0 37.5 6.2
10 Braves 403.3 36.5 5.2
11 Dodgers 402.3 36.1 5.2
12 Tigers 399.7 39.2 5.6
13 Rangers 398.0 48.6 4.9
14 Yankees 391.7 38.2 5.5
15 Pirates 391.0 37.3 6.2
16 Indians 390.0 38.2 5.5
17 Royals 386.7 44.7 5.0
18 Padres 386.7 44.3 4.9
19 Brewers 386.0 39.5 4.9
20 Mariners 385.7 38.8 3.5
21 Athletics 383.7 34.8 3.9
22 Cubs 381.7 41.9 6.0
23 Phillies 379.3 31.0 3.9
24 White Sox 373.3 35.6 4.4
25 Twins 368.3 34.8 4.4
26 Mets 366.7 43.9 4.9
27 Orioles 366.3 43.9 5.5
28 Blue Jays 365.0 36.4 4.6
29 Marlins 354.0 37.1 3.7
30 Reds 345.0 34.8 3.5

So – from a real baseball perspective, this is great management and use of a new rule in an attempt to keep an injury riddled pitching staff healthy. From a fantasy baseball perspective – those Alex Wood starts getting missed sure hurt when he’s pitching this well! Keep in mind – if this strategy pans out, you might see less starts than in an absolutely optimal world – but in reality, you’ll see a lot more results than if any of these pitchers got hurt again.


Players I’m Buying In Ottoneu: June 2017

As I did last year, today I’ll be taking a look at some players I would be targeting in ottoneu (specifically FGPts, but the advice works for all formats) as both a title contender and a rebuilding team. There are plenty more targets than just the ones I’m naming here, but this group is a good start.

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Waiver Help – Finnegan, Chisenhall and Gamel

Last week I suggested nabbing and stashing one of Cincinnati’s starting pitchers who’s nearing a return, and this week I do the same with a different arm of theirs. A pair of outfielders owned in under 25% of leagues across the industry also stand out as worthy of the attention of gamers. Read the rest of this entry »


The Daily Grind: Unhittable Home Runs

Its the Steam summer sale. I find myself enticed a bunch of cheap Final Fantasy titles along with the South Park RPG. Oh, where are we?

AGENDA

  1. Wut
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. Hitters to Use
  5. SaberSim Says…
  6. TDG Invitational Returns!

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Field of Streams: Episode 274 – Having To Wear It For The Spreadsheet

Episode 274 – Having To Wear It For The Spreadsheet

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss the Jesse Hahn vs. David Paulino duel, the weak stolen base race, Dylan getting good at Matt’s guessing game, the return of Ubaldo Jimenez, keeping each other honest in the concert, what is left of Homer Bailey, the resurgence of James Shields, Dinelson lamet being a DFS option but not a spreadsheet option, Mark Zagunis’ viability and future, Denard Span’s salt and pepper facial hair, the legend of J.D. Drew, and Matt’s takes on the NBA draft.

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Underthrown Pitches And The Pitchers Who Underthrow Them: Vol. 3 Sliders and Changeups

Welcome back to the third and penultimate installment of Underthrown Pitches and the Pitchers Who Underthrow Them. Over the last several weeks, we’ve identified high performing four-seamers, sinkers, cutters, and curves and the pitchers who should consider throwing them more often. We’ve defined “high performing” based on a Pitch Score that factors an offering’s proclivity towards inducing whiffs, ground balls, and pop-ups. We’ve also defined the degree that a pitch is “underthrown” using a simple measure of pitch score to frequency.

For a more detailed recap of the results and methodology to-date, check out the previous installments linked below.

Vol 1: Four-seamers and Sinkers

Vol 2: Cutters and Curves  Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 472 – “Would You Rather?” Extravaganza

I’LL PUT TIME TAGS ON LATER. I’M RECORDING SATURDAY’S EP W/JASON RIGHT UP AGAINST THIS ONE POSTING SO I HAD TO GET IT POSTED FIRST AND RAN OUT OF TIME FOR TAGS. 

6/22/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Leading Off: Question of the Day

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Phantom Cold Streaks

In my last two articles on streaky hitters, I came up with a method to identify when hitters entered and exited hot and cold streaks. However, to really make a difference for fantasy players, streaks must both be identifiable and persistent. There’s no point in benching a hitter in a cold streak if that streak is just as likely to be over with as not when you realize it is happening. And so, for this article, I decided to look at hitter performances in the days following the recognition of streaks.

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