I see the tiers up there, but I need to drop one of Choo, Rajai Davis, and Swisher. Choo is the least productive of the three and yet he’s ranked higher on the list. I really don’t want to drop the other two.
Mike: I still think you hang onto Choo. Depends on your league, though. AL-only? 10-team? Etc.
And what other OF types are floating around in FA? Because if there are others in the Swisher vein — .250, 20-25, 80 guys — then he might be the drop. I’m figuring you need Rajai for his SBs?
Comment by Jason Catania — June 14, 2011 @ 11:27 pm
Jonas: I think I like LoMo more. Jones probably offers a little more in HRs for 2011 (although, Morrison’s power has come on sooner than expected), and Jones clearly has the edge in SB. But Morrison’s plate discipline means he’s got less risk, and a much better shot to actually hit .300, even though Jones is doing that for now. It’s close. If we did a combined version of these ranks, I think they’d be in the same tier.
Comment by Jason Catania — June 14, 2011 @ 11:32 pm
Why is Gardner so low?
Comment by Total Dominication — June 15, 2011 @ 8:32 am
Thanks Jason. I’ll keep Choo and drop Swisher. It’s a 14 team mixed league with only 3 outfielders starting so there is decent outfield depth. I need Rajai for the steals as you assumed as Figgins and Jeter were supposed to be my steals guys.
I sorta bunched a lot of the steals guys together in Tier 4, and Gardner didn’t really stand out from the pack. His SB% is iffy this year, which means he’s not even doing his one elite skill all that well, as opposed to say Crisp and Davis, who have more flaws but also look like they will legitimately approach 40 SBs. Steals, to me, are the one category that has the biggest dropoff from draft value to in-season value, so I tend to devalue those types. Especially with offense as low as it is.
Now that Gardner will get some run atop the Yanks lineup with Jeter out, he’s got a shot to improve in runs. And he’s been good since his awful April, so there are things to like. I just need to see it first, then adjust his value later.
Comment by Jason Catania — June 15, 2011 @ 11:31 am
Fellow 2000 NY State Champ here. Hope all is well! I have read a few of y our articles and really enjoy seeing you get your name out there. I am a huge fantasy guy and have been in an 12 team AL only league since 1997. I kept Frenchy for $6 this year and he has been a monster. I think he needs a little more love, especially after his 2 stolen bases last night. I have been projecting a .265, 25 homeruns, 75 RBI, 10 SB season from his since spring training. He just needed to be in the right setting and we all know he has the potential. With overall team batting averages as low as it is this year, a .265 batting average would currently put you in 3rd place in my league. He is currently on pace for nearly 100 RBI’s, was recently put into the 4 hole, K.C.’s lineup has improved drastically with Hosmer and Moustakas (Cain to come later this season), and he has never been an injury risk. He needs to be above Willingham, heck I’d even put him ahead of Alex Gordon. Thoughts?
Agree on some level, Mr. Thell. That’s why I kept Swish in Tier 3. Also, I mentioned him as a Buy Low guy a month ago. So I like the guy. Still, I think you could argue that his counting stats (HRs at 6 and Runs/RBIs at 28 each) remain below expectations. Much of his value this year has been tied up in his walk rate (.350 OBP is well above his .227 BA). His May was just as bad as his April, but his June has been great, so signs of a breakout are there. Just need to see him continue this before stating he’s clearly put his slow start behind him.
Comment by Jason Catania — June 15, 2011 @ 3:34 pm
Rock! What’s up, man? Thanks for reading and checking in.
You make a good point on Francoeur. And hey, I DID bump him up a tier! In a way, with offense being as down as it is, there’s value in a guy like him who can rack up the counting stats (HRs, RBIs, runs and some steals) just because he plays 150 games. The rate digits aren’t going to be high, but then again, not many players’ are either.
I’m not sure he’s going to continue hitting much above .250 — the walk rate is right around his career pace (about 5.0%) — but a possible 20-20 season is pretty darn useful. (Better chance at the HRs than the SBs.) And it’s not like the Royals have (m)any better OF options, so he’ll get the 600 ABs this year. Think of him as an accumulator. The Eddie Murray of the 2011 fantasy season.
Oh yeah: Go Trojans.
Comment by Jason Catania — June 15, 2011 @ 3:54 pm
After looking into this a little more, Fangraphs projects Jones to hit 12 more HRs, while Morrison should hit around 8 more. How can this be squared with Morrison’s higher ISO numbers? Is Morrison’s ISO number too high?
Even though Morrison’s hit fewer homers (by just 3), he’s got the same number of doubles (12) and triples (1) as Jones — and he’s done all that in about 60 fewer at-bats. Hence, LoMo’s slightly better ISO to date. I’d bet Morrison out-doubles Jones by a good margin going forward, but the homers will be similar — both should hit another 8-12. If you’re looking purely for homers, Jones is probably the better bet this year, but Morrison projects to be one of those guys who winds up hitting 25 homers a year even though he never approached that in his minor league career. And Morrison has more batting average upside.
Comment by Jason Catania — June 16, 2011 @ 2:51 pm
If you could trade one, you might try to move Swisher (maybe a Yank fan will nibble? Has more value in an OBP league, too) or Choo (someone looking to buy low, betting on a return to form). I think you would get more for Choo, definitely, and Swisher, probably, than Davis if you can move one and get something useful in return. Much more name value/recognition with the other two.
Though I love seeing Blue Jays get included on lists like these, I think it should be noted that though Adam Lind CAN play the outfield, he definitely doesn’t anymore, and probably won’t. He’s become a permanent first baseman and the Jays already have an overflowing outfield.
I also love how you noticed Eric Thames. It’s getting tiring seeing all these prospect rankings and nobody’s mentioned him until now. The guy has 0.6 WAR in just 112 Plate Appearances, and that’s with being pushed around different positions (LF, RF, DH), pushed around different leagues (Minors, then MLB, then Minors, then MLB), and of course a slow start that isn’t foreign to rookies when they first get up to the big leagues. Even after all this into account, a 0.6 WAR in 28 games (though a small sample size) DOES translate into 3.5 WAR at the end of a full season. That’s already a phenomenal amount of WAR period, and given the fact that he’s still only a rookie, you can’t ask more from the guy. Really, really high potential for this kid.