• Roto Riteup: June 18, 2017
    by Paul Sporer - 6/18 -  1
    Healy mashes again, a pair of White Sox are fueling their offense, who is Cleveland's best hitter?, and 2016 award winner continues to falter.
  • Roto Riteup
    The most roto-relevant news of the previous day, recapped in a concise format for your morning coffee.
  • Bullpen Report
    Detailed daily updates and charts on every bullpen in the Major Leagues to help you manage your saves and holds.
  • Prospect Coverage
    Our prospect team mines the minors for top prospects and useful pieces alike.
  • MASH Report
    Award-winning in-depth injury report with analysis from Jeff Zimmerman.
  • The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast
    Eno Sarris, Paul Sporer, and Jason Collette lead the RotoGraphs staff in a regular fantasy podcast.
  • Daily Fantasy Strategy
    The RotoGraphs team discusses daily fantasy strategy and then makes picks for the day.
  • Ottoneu Strategy
    Strategy for the year-round FanGraphs Fantasy game.
  • Top 50 Fantasy Prospects
    Marc Hulet adjusts (and updates) his prospect list for fantasy purposes.
  • Field of Streams
    A contest to see who can make the better picks: streaming pitcher and hitter choices for every day of the season in a podcast hosted by Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin.
C  -  1B  -  2B  -  SS  -  3B  -  OF  -  SP  -  RP

Underthrown Pitches And The Pitchers Who Underthrow Them: Vol. 3 Sliders and Changeups

Welcome back to the third and penultimate installment of Underthrown Pitches and the Pitchers Who Underthrow Them. Over the last several weeks, we’ve identified high performing four-seamers, sinkers, cutters, and curves and the pitchers who should consider throwing them more often. We’ve defined “high performing” based on a Pitch Score that factors an offering’s proclivity towards inducing whiffs, ground balls, and pop-ups. We’ve also defined the degree that a pitch is “underthrown” using a simple measure of pitch score to frequency.

For a more detailed recap of the results and methodology to-date, check out the previous installments linked below.

Vol 1: Four-seamers and Sinkers

Vol 2: Cutters and Curves  Read the rest of this entry »

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 472 – “Would You Rather?” Extravaganza



The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Leading Off: Question of the Day

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Phantom Cold Streaks

In my last two articles on streaky hitters, I came up with a method to identify when hitters entered and exited hot and cold streaks. However, to really make a difference for fantasy players, streaks must both be identifiable and persistent. There’s no point in benching a hitter in a cold streak if that streak is just as likely to be over with as not when you realize it is happening. And so, for this article, I decided to look at hitter performances in the days following the recognition of streaks.

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American League Starting Pitcher Repertoire Changes

Change in pitch mix often coincides with a change in performance. It’s one of the few statistical changes we could identify immediately. So let’s take a look at which American League starting pitchers have changed their pitch mix versus last year the most.

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The Daily Grind: The Next Papi

Words, it is said, can be used to draw one in, much as a spider waves its arms in invitation to all those dumb fruit flies. You are invited…


  1. This Guy
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. TDG Invitational Is Off

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Roto Riteup: June 22, 2017

  1. A lot of people were offended by Yasiel Puig and his action during his home run last night:

However, I was reminded by Grant Brisbee of McCovey Chronicles that this isn’t even close to the worst (or best) of all time:


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Bullpen Report: June 21, 2017

It’s no news flash that Corey Knebel is really good.  But is he Aroldis Chapman-good?

On Wednesday night, Knebel tied Chapman’s record for most appearances with at least one strikeout to begin a season. In his 37th game of 2017, not only did Knebel notch his 64th strikeout of the year, but he also earned his 11th save in a 4-3 win over the Pirates. He leads all relievers in strikeouts, even though he ranked 39th in swinging strike rate prior to Wednesday’s games. While there was nothing wrong with his 13.8 percent whiff rate, Knebel has been unparalleled in getting strikeouts because he had coaxed swings on only 41.3 percent of his pitches. To put that in perspective, only 36 out of 719 qualified relievers have had a rate at least that low since 2013. Read the rest of this entry »

Tipping Pitches: James Paxton is in Trouble

If James Paxton has suffered through his last three starts in the course of a healthy season, it would be annoying and definitely garner some attention, but I don’t think it’d cause a freakout. Given that they’ve come so closely a DL stint – something Paxton has been unable to avoid throughout his career – there are concerns. Paxton faces the Detroit Tigers tonight in Seattle, a game I’ll be watching. I figured I’d take a look at what’s been happening over these last three starts in comparison to the first seven (which includes his first off the DL on May 28th) and see if we can highlight the issue(s) and find something to keep an eye on tonight.

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Introducing Hot Seat: Closers on the Way Out

In-season Saves hunting is a long standing fantasy baseball tradition. It can lead to the promised land (Felipe Rivero) or to hours of frustration (the Nationals). To help with finding volatile closer situations, I created a metric to help find relievers on the ‘Hot Seat’. While it is far from perfect, it does show some promise in finding struggling relievers.

First off, this Hot Seat metric is not close to being a replacement for our Bullpen Report. It doesn’t take into account different levels of team fickleness, injuries, velocity drops, setup options, and many other contextual contributions. It just looks back at pitcher performance. It might not even show any relievers who are really struggling but it may give a desperate owner a list of closers who may be on the outs after a couple more Blown Saves.

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Ryon Healy: The Power Source We Expected

Coming into the 2017 campaign, Ryon Healy was a popular topic of conversation on an Oakland Athletics squad that ultimately doesn’t have a lot to be said for it. A sleeper candidate before the year began, some of the shine has since fallen off of Healy thanks to a slow start. Ranking 19th out of 24 qualifying third basemen in WAR probably doesn’t help his case, either.

Having shaken off that rough start, however, and taking his questionable defense out of the equation, Healy is not only a player that stacks up well against his counterparts at the hot corner, but is meeting the expectations previously set forth for him. An offense-first, or perhaps an offense-only, type, Healy will continue to see time at third base, especially with the trade of Trevor Plouffe, while also filling in at first behind Yonder Alonso. And while he likely hasn’t done enough to establish himself as a fantasy starter outside of deeper leagues, he’s a versatile (in a fantasy sense) with a lot going for him at the plate. And by “a lot”, I mean a lot of power.

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