FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball

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  1. “Once his home runs per fly ball normalize (4.2% right now), more balls will leave his comfy little home park, and his ERA will balloon. ”

    I understand that Citizens Bank Park has a higher than average HR/FB rate.

    Does anyone have a theory as to why this hasn’t translated to a higher HR park factor for CBP? Since 2008 there have only been 3.8% more HRs in the Phillies’ home games than in their away games (649 in 292 home games, vs. 591 in 276 away games)? This ranks around 12th among the 30 parks.

    Comment by aladou — July 1, 2011 @ 6:41 am

  2. I was going to say you have to use more than one year, but you did. StatCorner has different numbers, though: 116 HR park factor for lefties and 120 for righties.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — July 1, 2011 @ 12:09 pm

  3. I believe those are calculated by comparing HR/FB rates, not HRs per game.

    Comment by aladou — July 1, 2011 @ 12:17 pm

  4. I was perusing Worley’s page and came across this gem. Didn’t quite work out huh?

    Comment by Brad Johnson — August 2, 2011 @ 8:37 pm

  5. Worley? Still got a below-average swsTR%, GB% and only an average BB%. I still don’t like him long term. Sometimes good streaks last 77.1 innings, sometimes they last a year, but they don’t last a career.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — August 2, 2011 @ 8:43 pm

  6. Eno

    You are wrong, the stats you lean against like a drunk does a lampost cannot take a man’s character, demeanor and attitude into account. This kid won’t be a 2.00 ERA 1.13 WHIP, but he will be a great pitcher (injuries aside) for quite a long time.

    I would hope you admit the errors of your ways, but I have had enough disagreements with sabercultists to know that is never the case.

    Maybe if you watched baseball more (or once) rather than just look at stats on the internet, you’d actually have an understanding of the sport.

    You must have both, not one or the other and doing so shows Vance Worley is one of the best pitchers in the majors and will continue to be

    Comment by James Campbell — August 23, 2011 @ 9:10 pm

  7. P.S. As of this post he has K’d 9 Mets in 7 IP after stranding any runner on base.

    Maybe you should look at his LOB%

    In my articles, I will be doing a story on how LOB is the only stat that can show a bit of a pitchers personality.

    Comment by James Campbell — August 23, 2011 @ 9:15 pm

  8. Please get out of here with the watch the game stuff. I admit I’m wrong all the time, too. I’m a fantasy wonk, we get things wrong, we just hope to get things wrong less often than others.

    But watch the games? I watch about three games a day. I’m a Mets writer too, so I’ve seen Worley. He has a good pitch or two, and yeah he battles. But striking out nine Mets is not the feat it might have been once. And a 5.7 swinging strike rate? That’s bad.

    Do me a favor. Look at Kyle Kendrick’s first year. Identical swinging strike rate, both had good control and got an average amount of ground balls. I think you’re looking at a guy that is a little better than Kyle Kendrick.

    Which is awesome for the Phillies while he’s cheap. Me? In fantasy? Give me Greinke for Worley right now and I’ll laugh my way to the bank in our league.

    LOB%? Strange stat to bring up. Kyle Kendrick’s LOB% is 72.2%. Roy Halladay’s is 73.5%. Cliff Lee’s is 72.6%. Jason Marquis has a 70.6% LOB. Randy Wells is 73.2%. In the last three years, offense has gone down around the league and LOB% has gone from 71.4% to 72.5%. It’s a very steady stat.

    But sure, some elite pitchers like Jered Weaver, Tom Seaver, Sandy Koufax, Tim Lincecum, Warren Spahn and the like have managed LOB%s in the 75-77% level. You’re ready, after a good half season, to put Worley in that group? After he got, like, zero buzz from scouts on the way up? (He didn’t get into the Phillies’ top 10 by Baseball America, a decidedly non-saber-cultist organization.)

    The Worley Bird Shirt and the Vanimal nicknames are awesome. He’s a fun character. Love the goggles. Won’t be drafting him any leagues next year…

    unless I’m in a deep league with a bunch of saber guys and he falls too far. I do that sometimes.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — August 23, 2011 @ 10:10 pm

  9. I’m a Phils fan, and it’s been fun watching Worley pitch. He’s gotten great results this year, no doubt. But he’s pretty clearly not elite.

    He’s Brandon Beachy… with less upside.

    And I don’t see too many people calling Beachy elite.

    Comment by Dave S — August 25, 2011 @ 11:57 am

  10. Eno,

    Any reassessment on Moscoso? Not that he’s great, but he had a decent run there before BOS got him.

    Is he usable at home vs DET and LAA next week?

    Comment by Dean — August 31, 2011 @ 5:20 pm

  11. In two weeks, actually (week of Sept 12th).

    Comment by Dean — August 31, 2011 @ 5:25 pm

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