FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball

Comments

RSS feed for comments on this post.

  1. I love Carl Crawford in real life, but I think his fantasy value will be suppressed this year and beyond by hitting 6/7 in that Sox lineup, behind a bunch of slow guys who get on base a lot. We just aren’t going to see him get the kind of base-stealing opportunities that Ellsbury and Pedroia get at the top of the order unless Crawford supplants one of them, and that isn’t going to happen barring injury (if I know anything about Tito’s managerial style). And if Crawford only steals 10 bases or so in the second half, his other numbers aren’t going to be enough to make him elite an elite fantasy player.

    Having said that, I think you have him ranked about right. But I can imagine some people below him outperforming him from here on out more easily than I can see Crawford outperforming those above him (barring injury).

    Comment by mcbrown — July 14, 2011 @ 9:34 am

  2. I know everybody wants to hate on the guy, but why the drop for Cabrera, given that he just keeps getting better? He should rank way ahead of Frenchy, who, as expected, just keeps getting worse.

    Comment by rbt — July 14, 2011 @ 10:04 am

  3. Let me be the first to ask… Where’s Justin Upton? And Matt Kemp? What about Greg Vaughn? You just forgot Derek Jeter, Ken Griffey Jr., and Dennis Eckersley? Slight oversight there. And I can’t believe you forgot Ron Harper and Jud Beuchler. Natrone Means didn’t even make the list? What is this?

    Going forward, I like Snider to be up in Tier 5, if not 4 (but probably 5). Quentin has been abysmal lately, but I do like him to pick it back up soon.

    Comment by STEALTH — July 14, 2011 @ 10:45 am

  4. Also, what was with Bautista at the derby? The longest of his 4 HRs was shorter than the shortest of Rickie Weeks’ three… I figured he’d win, possibly in a blowout, and then he hits only 4…

    I’m so ashamed of owning him nowhere. And even after targeting Ellsbury and Granderson, I own them nowhere as well. At least I got Cuddyer.

    Comment by STEALTH — July 14, 2011 @ 10:52 am

  5. Hello? No Oscar Charleston? What kind of list is this?

    Comment by JKB — July 14, 2011 @ 11:08 am

  6. out of curiousity, why so bearish on delmon?

    Comment by Melkman — July 14, 2011 @ 11:17 am

  7. I wouldn’t be surprised if Snider’s value ROS fits him with the tier 3 group… at minimum he’ll give an average/OBP in line with guys like Upton, Swisher and Hunter and equal power numbers. If he continues the improvement he has displayed with his swing adjustment those numbers could all be better, he is driving the ball effortlessly since coming back and playing time will not be an issue.

    Comment by keyser soze — July 14, 2011 @ 11:23 am

  8. Great Scott!

    Comment by Adam — July 14, 2011 @ 12:15 pm

  9. J Upton? Kemp? How about reading the title? AMERICAN LEAGUE outfielder rankings.

    Comment by rbt — July 14, 2011 @ 12:22 pm

  10. And the jokes goes right over rbt’s head :)

    Comment by Joser — July 14, 2011 @ 12:32 pm

  11. What tier would you put Travis Hafner in?

    Comment by Sean — July 14, 2011 @ 12:38 pm

  12. So I’m slow today…what can I say? :)

    Comment by rbt — July 14, 2011 @ 12:39 pm

  13. I had a funny feeling Bautista wouldn’t do well in the derby. He strikes me as the kind of hitter whose power better translates in game play than an exhibition competition.

    FWIW, I picked Fielder and Cano as my derby guys prior to the event. So I feel extra-smart, of course.

    http://twitter.com/#!/JayCat11/status/90495387630178305

    Comment by Jason Catania — July 14, 2011 @ 12:40 pm

  14. I actually didn’t drop Melky. In fact, he moved up one spot from No. 7 to No. 6 in Tier 4 — from behind Frenchy to ahead!

    Comment by Jason Catania — July 14, 2011 @ 12:44 pm

  15. It’s okay, rbt. I appreciate your helping police the comments! I made it extra-clear in the opener of this post that it was AL only b/c every update kept bringing a handful of comments about where so-and-so NL OF was. And so of course, that brought out all the clever posts doing just that! I chuckled, though. So well done.

    Comment by Jason Catania — July 14, 2011 @ 12:47 pm

  16. 1) He’s not that good. 2) He’s coming off an injury. 3) I don’t see him turning it around. 4) He doesn’t bring any above-average category to the table.

    To me, he’s only startable in deep AL-only leagues as an OF3/4.

    Comment by Jason Catania — July 14, 2011 @ 12:49 pm

  17. None. He’s not OF-eligible. Anywhere.

    Comment by Jason Catania — July 14, 2011 @ 12:50 pm

  18. Of course, unless fangraphs adds “DH/Util” to its rankings series, Hafner and Ortiz are the invisible men of fantasy baseball. Not that adding them to arbitrary positional rankings is the solution, of course.

    Comment by mcbrown — July 14, 2011 @ 1:06 pm

  19. How about my boys Lonnie Smith, Willie Wilson, Dane Iorg and Daryl Motley?

    Comment by Steve Balboni — July 14, 2011 @ 1:25 pm

  20. Carlos Quentin over Nelson Cruz?? Please explain!

    Comment by batpig — July 14, 2011 @ 1:46 pm

  21. He won’t be batting 6/7 forever.

    Comment by Rob — July 14, 2011 @ 2:07 pm

  22. What is the collective wisdom on having an OF from the same team? In addition to Crawford, McCutchen, Heyward, and Maybin, I’ve got Hunter, Abreu, and Bourjos and end up having to start the Angels OFers together, regularly because of injuries to Crawford and/or Heyward. Is this along the lines of the “win big or lose big” idea? What are peoples’ thoughts on this?

    Comment by Kris — July 14, 2011 @ 2:17 pm

  23. I think it’s pretty close. They’re both injury-prone power bats that play in great hitter’s parks and bring little else to the table (Cruz doesn’t really run anymore). If you like Cruz over Quentin, I can see the argument. I put them back-to-back, so it’s not like Quentin was in a different tier or anything.

    Comment by Jason Catania — July 14, 2011 @ 2:24 pm

  24. It doesn’t really both me too much, but I don’t think the Angels OF is one I would be looking to start all three guys on a regular basis. It’s still about the talent more than the team. If you own three OFs on a team that gets no-hit, then yes, that blows. But it will be balanced out enough through the course of the season (by 10-run explosions, etc.) that having one team’s entire OF isn’t really a detriment or an advantage.

    I actually think the biggest issue with it is that they will all have the same off days. And now that offense is as precious as it is, I think you need to have players in your lineup every day (of course, obeying any games maximum setting). Having two or three OFs from one team could hamstring an owner in some cases. And missing any chance to put in a player who is playing that day can be a serious overlook if it keeps adding up. There is extra value in players I like to call “accruers,” by that I mean, players who are durable, play every day and can put up a steal or homer, even if it means their rate stats aren’t so hot. This goes a long way toward explaining why Francoeur has become a startable OF in AL-only leagues…

    Comment by Jason Catania — July 14, 2011 @ 2:32 pm

  25. “both” should be “bother.” Duh.

    Comment by Jason Catania — July 14, 2011 @ 2:32 pm

  26. Why not? The Red Sox have won a lot of games with Ellsbury-Pedroia-Gonzalez at the top, and Francona isn’t going to mess with a productive lineup. He’s no Joe Maddon!

    Comment by Jay — July 14, 2011 @ 2:36 pm

  27. I dunno, Cruz had 17 SB last year and already has 5 this year. Quentin has 6 SB over the past three years combined.

    If you assume they are equal in other categories, the fact is that Quentin will steal 2-3 bags a year tops, whereas Cruz is probably still an 8-10 SB guy. That gap is pretty significant, it could be 1-2 points in the standings in a tight race, and there isn’t another category in which Quentin outclasses Cruz to make up for it.

    Plus, you have to project Cruz to hit for a slightly better AVG going forward (higher career AVG, better ROS ZIPS projection for AVG). I agree they are close, but I can’t see any argument why Quentin would be ranked higher.

    Comment by batpig — July 14, 2011 @ 2:57 pm

  28. It’s really splitting hairs here. And I don’t think there’s a “right” or “wrong.” But if I’m making the argument for Quention over Cruz: I just prefer the guy who walks more, strikes out less and doesn’t have huge platoon splits. The general point, though, is that either of the two could take off and be a top 3-5 AL OF from here on out; or just as easily fall apart due to injury.

    I wouldn’t trade my Quentin for your Cruz, fearing that Quentin is bound to fall off and Cruz is ready to rocket. And some goes the other way. But if you liked my Cruz way more than Quentin in our theoretical league, I would be fine making a deal with them involved where I get something else coming back to make you pay up for Cruz. And I’d be perfectly happy with Carlos.

    Comment by Jason Catania — July 14, 2011 @ 3:59 pm

  29. I saw the red arrow pointing down and assumed that down actually meant…well, down.

    Comment by rbt — July 14, 2011 @ 4:09 pm

  30. Kendrick couldn’t be above Tier 4? Although his BABIP is higher than in some years past, he always projected to be a .300 type hitter in the league. Also while I don’t feel his power levels are totally sustainable, he has run more frequently this year, and could be capable of a 20 Sb type season. A potential line of .300, 80 R, 50 RBI, 12 HR, and 18 SB has low Tier 3 potential to me.

    Comment by Robert J — July 14, 2011 @ 4:11 pm

  31. The down arrow is next to Sizemore, not Melky.

    Comment by Jason Catania — July 14, 2011 @ 4:23 pm

  32. Kendrick’s season stats are seriously pumped up by a never-before-or-since-seen April when he hit 75% of his HRs and notched 50% of his walks for the season.

    Since May 1: .301 with 2 HR, 24 runs, 17 RBIs and 8 SB.

    Nice numbers for a guy with eligibility at 3 positions, but I would easily take all the guys in Tier 3 over Howie.

    Comment by Jason Catania — July 14, 2011 @ 4:30 pm

  33. i have been scared away from crawford because he keeps making comments about how he doesnt want to be that guy who steals a lot of bases, he doesnt want to be a leadoff guy, he wants to be than a speed guy… because yes he has medium (15HR) power (with about the same number of triples FWIW) and he can put up a good batting average (cant take a walk though…)… but his SB is where he was truly elite. and if he doesnt want to do that anymore, whether because he wants to be thought of as more of a complete hitter or, much much worse, if his legs are slowing down/ getting hurt too much, that could tank his value.

    Comment by phoenix — July 14, 2011 @ 10:38 pm

  34. Would you drop Carlos Lee or Bobby Abreu for Travis Snider in a shallow mixed league (Michael Brantley on the waiver wire)?

    Comment by AZB — July 15, 2011 @ 7:00 pm

  35. I could see dumping either of ‘em in shallow league, say 10 or 12 teams. I’d probably lose Abreu first, since he stands out less at this point from what he brings to the table.

    If you want power, then it makes sense. Abreu maybe hits 5-8 homers if he gets lucky. Snider should do that more easily, as long as he gets regular PT.

    Comment by Jason Catania — July 15, 2011 @ 7:06 pm

  36. That seems pretty low on Gardner.

    Comment by Total Dominication — July 17, 2011 @ 6:35 pm

  37. Seriously. How do you put just “lump” Gardner in with Davis….

    .290/.370/.420 (3.8 WAR)

    .235/.263/.345 (-0.2 WAR)!

    seriously? Gardner has been one of the best outfielders in all of baseball the last year and a half, and while I know he doesn’t put up gaudy fantasy stats….just read the triple slash line and tell me I’m wrong about his placement….

    Comment by Frank — July 20, 2011 @ 2:36 pm

  38. The trickiest part of rankings is where to slot in the specialist types. The context matters, and in this case, I’m figuring that an owner with no need for SBs would clearly realize that Davis should be dropped a tier b/c of his peripherals. But then, Gardner would also have less value b/c of his lack of power numbers. You could argue that Gardner could be maybe 3-5 slots higher b/c his peripherals are solid and his SBs are elite. But perhaps the more pertinent point is that Davis should be 8-10 spots lower if you’re an owner who doesn’t need SBs, since he’s not likely to offer much help elsewhere. But I see their SB value as roughly the same going forward, and if Gardner hits .290 while Davis hits .250 the rest of the way, there’s not a huge separation. Unless the Yankees actually do the smart thing and make Gardy the leadoff hitter.

    Also, you noted their respective WARs, which while drastically different, doesn’t really help b/c it’s not really a fantasy category (I pointed this out in today’s column, coincidentally enough). Still, it can be a useful gauge. Except in Gardner’s case, his WAR is so high because he’s solid offensively (which matters in fantasy), but he gets brownie points for being a stud defender (which doesn’t).

    Comment by Jason Catania — July 20, 2011 @ 3:08 pm

  39. I’ve been reading out some of your articles and i must say good stuff. I will certainly bookmark your weblog.

    Comment by Lino Ayoub — November 3, 2011 @ 3:29 am

Leave a comment

Line and paragraph breaks automatic, e-mail address never displayed, HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>


Close this window.

0.187 Powered by WordPress