Just a quick note, I know Yahoo! shuts down its services over the offseason. I run the league I commission via spreadsheet, but other leagues I’m in just fold up shop. Waiver moves are prohibited in the league I run after the last game.
Great concept for an article Jeff, would definitely be interested in more of this type. :-)
Comment by Nilsilly — September 16, 2011 @ 12:40 pm
I definitely agree that hitters are more predictable than pitchers. It’s pretty simple; it’s a matter of sample size. A starting pitcher gets around 30 to 35 starts over a full season without injury which generally results in 175 – 200 innings. When evaluating pitchers in the offseason, I recommend concentrating on WHIP and K/9 ratio. These statistics tend to be more stable than ERA and I also look to identify trends over the past 2 or 3 season. For example, I knew Kershaw would have a huge season this year. His K/9 has been steady since he got to the majors, but the important thing to notice is that his BB/9 and WHIP have consistently dropped as he’s gotten older and gained experience. These trends lead to a stable pattern of improvement.
I tried all i could to find any good numbers on pitchers and just go with:
1.1*K%-B% (I have regressed all the numbers and these more out pretty good)
I just roll the dice on the rest of the stats.
If a tie, I will go with the following as deal breakers: Higher K’s (walks are more likely to go down than K’s go up), team offense (more wins), team defense (lower ERA and whip) and younger (less chance of injury)
Comment by Jeff Zimmerman — September 16, 2011 @ 2:00 pm
Mine too. No offseason waivers for us.
Comment by CaliforniaJag — September 17, 2011 @ 1:08 am
I can;t even stand having to use pitchers. I’d draft all hitters if I could. This really worked in the last few years, but this ear with all those CGs and better pitching stats, my tams got hammered. Oh well. Bring back steroids.
Comment by Bob Flake — September 18, 2011 @ 5:28 am